Thayer China's Rise Scenarios to 2030

8/6/2019 Thayer China's Rise Scenarios to 2030

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Professor Carl ThayerFutures Seminar

May 11, 2011


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Continued economic growth

Impact

of

regional

and

global

developments e eg t macy o t e nese ommun st

Party (CCP) is based on continued economic

grow , po ca s a y an appea s o nationalism


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probably unsustainable Economic reform will be necessar Demographics an aging population

The le itimac of CCP rule will come under challenge due to:

Corruption Governance issues Gaps in regional development


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Taiwan and the question of reunification

Territorial disputes with Japan se o n a Relations with the United States

Global Climate Change has the potential to trigger domestic disruption


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cluster of possibilities:

Populist /Nationalist state

Authoritarian state

ragmen e s a e Economics and Politics will shape these clusters


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High Economic Growth

Populist or Populist or One Part One Part

Democratic Transition

Democratic Transition StateState

Political

Stability

Political

Instability

Fragmented Fragmented Authoritarian Authoritarian

Low Economic Growth


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growth at about 7%

change

through

a

deft

mix

of

liberalisation

Stable authoritarian rule results


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. .

around 2030 . .

Chinas

continues

to

modernise and

transform

Chinas demand for resources and energy

increase its role as a global actor Chinas security becomes interdependent


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leadership change

coupled with mercantile behaviour Centra government a resses socia we are

and environmental issues Cooperation and friction in external political

and defence relations


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emerges

pressures from outside the CCP S ower economic growt ea s to increase

contestation over resource allocation Political instability increases


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domestic political issues

Reunification with Taiwan Resolution of territorial dis utes End to foreign (US EU) pressures over human

rights Greater use of military instrument of national

power


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making structures to accommodate politically active citizens

Economic disruptions caused by disputes

between administrative units Increased pressures on Taiwan to

accommodate Frictions with neighbours over territorial

disputes


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emerges demanding rule of law and

The CPP initiates a gradual process of political

The pace and scope of political change

ecomes conteste Political instability is more marked


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United Nations in global governance

multilateral institutions na s more proac ve n con r u ng o secur y

in Northeast Asia (Japan, Korean peninsula)

na an e eve op a more coopera ve relationship, some irritants remain


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democratic change

Increased court convictions for corruption e ease o po ca pr soners rom gao Constructive Chinese behaviour in global and

reg ona governance ma ers Increased defence transparency & cooperation


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The state responds to calls for political

rule by law Bot t e interna po itica security apparatus

and the military grow in strength


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of US support for Taiwan

territorial claims in the East Sea C ina see s maritime ominance in t e

Western Pacific and northern South China Sea China challenges US global leadership in

multiple venues


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demonstrations related to economic matters ,

imprisonment, vilification in media Increase u get an size o security orces Marked friction and incidents related to

territorial disputes


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Multiple sites of contestation occur tate an en arge po t ca y act ve c t zens

State

and

society

Between regions Between ethnic groups and Han Chinese

Central government weakens with marked political instability


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Central government moves to protect

resources and energy supplies Bouts o proactive nationa ist e aviour in

defense of national sovereignty General decline in international defence

activities


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Increase over time in the number and scope of ,

and resource issues C as es etween security orces Mobilisation of the military for internal

security operations


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Documents

Thayer China's Rise Scenarios to 2030