Warnings and Geographic Information Systems For the National Weather Service

Warnings and Geographic Information Systems Warnings and Geographic Information Systems For the National Weather Service For the National Weather Service

Ken WatersKen WatersRegional ScientistRegional Scientist

Pacific Region HeadquartersPacific Region HeadquartersNational Weather Service, Honolulu HINational Weather Service, Honolulu HI

July 13, 2005July 13, 2005Silver Spring, MDSilver Spring, MD

Ken Waters, NWS Pacific RegionKen Waters, NWS Pacific Region

Polygon TeamPolygon Team Created to help move the NWS from county-based warnings to Created to help move the NWS from county-based warnings to

polygon-based warningspolygon-based warnings

TEAM MEMBERS:TEAM MEMBERS:

Mike Looney, CRH (facilitator)Mike Looney, CRH (facilitator)Mike Coyne, MIC Huntsville MS Mike Coyne, MIC Huntsville MS Steve Naglic, WCM WFO Columbia SCSteve Naglic, WCM WFO Columbia SCPete Wolf, SOO WFO Jacksonville FLPete Wolf, SOO WFO Jacksonville FLJeff Lorens, WRHJeff Lorens, WRHBrent McAloney, OCWWSBrent McAloney, OCWWSDoug Young, OCWWSDoug Young, OCWWSNoreen Schwein, CRHNoreen Schwein, CRHJoe Shaffer, SPCJoe Shaffer, SPCRich Okulski, OAARich Okulski, OAAKen Waters, PRHKen Waters, PRH

Feb. 2004: Regions meet to study this issueFeb. 2004: Regions meet to study this issueMar. 2004: Meeting Information presented to MSD ChiefsMar. 2004: Meeting Information presented to MSD ChiefsApr. 2004: Gen. Johnson asks PR Regional Director Jeff Apr. 2004: Gen. Johnson asks PR Regional Director Jeff LaDouce to commission a polygon warning teamLaDouce to commission a polygon warning teamJune 2004: Meeting information presented to Ops Committee June 2004: Meeting information presented to Ops Committee June 2004: Polygon Team CharteredJune 2004: Polygon Team CharteredAug. 2004: First formal Polygon Team MeetingAug. 2004: First formal Polygon Team MeetingSep. 2004: Verification Scoring Sub-team LaunchedSep. 2004: Verification Scoring Sub-team LaunchedJan. 2005: AMS PresentationJan. 2005: AMS PresentationMar. 2005: Prototype Test StartedMar. 2005: Prototype Test StartedSep. 2005: Scheduled end of Polygon Prototype TestSep. 2005: Scheduled end of Polygon Prototype Test


County vs. PolygonCounty vs. Polygon

Latitude/Longitude points at the bottom of all TORs, SVRs, Latitude/Longitude points at the bottom of all TORs, SVRs, FFWs, and SMWs.FFWs, and SMWs.


Polygon EliminatesPolygon EliminatesArea FalseArea FalseAlarmedAlarmed

Polygon AdvantagesPolygon Advantages


Prototype TestPrototype Test


Polygon Team ChallengesPolygon Team Challenges

Software IssuesSoftware Issues

Workload ConcernsWorkload Concerns

VerificationVerification

DisseminationDissemination


Jackson MS Apr 5-7Jackson MS Apr 5-7“Trial by fire”“Trial by fire”


Example: FFW issued July 10Example: FFW issued July 10thth, , 2005 (remnants of Hurr. Dennis)2005 (remnants of Hurr. Dennis)

10 counties warned in west central Alabama---results in 25 vertices due to Warngen constraining boundaries to political county boundaries!


Example: FFW issued July 10Example: FFW issued July 10thth, , 2005 (remnants of Hurr. Dennis)2005 (remnants of Hurr. Dennis)

Using the polygon method reduces the definition to only 5 vertices, covers largely the same constituency, and allows the forecaster much more flexibility to warn for the area the hazard is expected---rather than for county boundaries.


Another Example---Warngen Simplifying Polygon to County Boundary

Tornado warning issued for Dent Co. MO

What happens if the tornado crosses like….


Offices Not Watching Size of Offices Not Watching Size of Pathcast in WarngenPathcast in Warngen


Another interesting case study,Another interesting case study,May 30, 2004May 30, 2004

30/2314Z: WFO St. Louis forecaster issued tornado warning for Washington Co. IL, conforming the polygon to “more or less” the shape of the county

30/2319Z: WFO Paducah issued tornado warning for neighboring Perry Co. IL

30/2330Z: Confirmed tornado touchdown in Dubois, Washington County IL

The irony of all this?:Using polygons as issued by the WFO’s, this event was unwarned! Using legacy county verification, WFO St. Louis warned for the event.


Now that I’ve got your attention…..

Let’s talk some about GIS and how it can relate to the National Weather Service…….


What is a GIS?What is a GIS?

Geographic Information Geographic Information SystemSystem

DEFINITION: An organized DEFINITION: An organized collection of computer collection of computer hardware, software, hardware, software, geographic data, and geographic data, and personnel designed to personnel designed to efficiently capture, store, efficiently capture, store, update, manipulate, analyze, update, manipulate, analyze, and display all forms of and display all forms of geographically referenced geographically referenced informationinformation


GIS DataGIS Data

Collection of:Collection of:• PointsPoints

Surface observationsSurface observations• LinesLines

Hurricane tracksHurricane tracks Tornado trajectoriesTornado trajectories

• PolygonsPolygons Short-fuse warnings (TOR, Short-fuse warnings (TOR,

SVR, FFW, SMW)SVR, FFW, SMW) Watches (SPC Outline)Watches (SPC Outline) Other watches/warnings Other watches/warnings

using preexisting using preexisting polygons such as county polygons such as county outlinesoutlines

• 3-dimensional objects3-dimensional objects Volumetric river basins Volumetric river basins


GIS Data FormatsGIS Data Formats

Most commonly used Most commonly used standard is the ESRI standard is the ESRI “shapefile”, which is widely “shapefile”, which is widely supported across industry.supported across industry.

Each shapefile (also known Each shapefile (also known as a theme or layer) is as a theme or layer) is composed of at least three composed of at least three file components which file components which describe the geographic describe the geographic (latitude/longitude) (latitude/longitude) coordinates and data coordinates and data attributes that make up attributes that make up each shapeeach shape


GIS SoftwareGIS Software

DesktopDesktop• ESRI ArcGISESRI ArcGIS• ESRI ArcViewESRI ArcView• MapDeskMapDesk• Public Domain: GRASSPublic Domain: GRASS

ServerServer• ESRI ArcIMSESRI ArcIMS• ESRI ArcGIS ServerESRI ArcGIS Server• Public Domain: UMinn MapserverPublic Domain: UMinn Mapserver

Non-GIS SoftwareNon-GIS Software• AWIPS (uses shapefiles)AWIPS (uses shapefiles)


NWS DataNWS Data

Uses formats not familiar Uses formats not familiar to GIS users:to GIS users:• WMO GRIB1 & 2WMO GRIB1 & 2

NDFD GridsNDFD Grids NCEP ModelsNCEP Models

• WMO Binary Universal WMO Binary Universal Form for the Form for the Representation (BUFR) of Representation (BUFR) of meteorological datameteorological data

Soundings etc.Soundings etc.

• Level II & Level III radarLevel II & Level III radar Unique binary format in Unique binary format in

radial format around a radial format around a single stationsingle station

ALL are already georeferenced!


ConvergenceConvergence

Looking for ways to merge Looking for ways to merge hydrometeorologic data with GIShydrometeorologic data with GIS

-Convert NWS data sets into Convert NWS data sets into georeferenced, GIS-friendly formatsgeoreferenced, GIS-friendly formats

-Disseminate NWS data using GIS Disseminate NWS data using GIS structure such as Internet Mapping structure such as Internet Mapping SystemsSystems


One Example…One Example…

Converting warning polygons into Converting warning polygons into GIS/georeferenced data filesGIS/georeferenced data files


Archiving short-fused NWS warnings since mid-Archiving short-fused NWS warnings since mid-2003.2003.

Converting then-little-used polygons at the bottom Converting then-little-used polygons at the bottom of the warnings to GIS data sets using AWIPS and of the warnings to GIS data sets using AWIPS and freeware software toolsfreeware software tools

Interesting patterns result, especially when the warning sets are shown over time…


Step 1: Capture the polygon Step 1: Capture the polygon pointspoints

Set up a “trigger” Set up a “trigger” mechanism in AWIPS to mechanism in AWIPS to capture all short-term capture all short-term warnings:warnings:

• TOR – tornado warningsTOR – tornado warnings• SVR – severe SVR – severe

thunderstorm warningsthunderstorm warnings• FFW – flash flood warningsFFW – flash flood warnings• SMW – special marine SMW – special marine

warningswarnings


Step 2: Parse the warning textStep 2: Parse the warning text

Extract all the needed information:

Issue Time

UGC

Expiration Time

VTEC line

….and….of course…

…the polygon vertices


Step 3: At scheduled intervals update Step 3: At scheduled intervals update the “flat file” databasethe “flat file” database

Using only open source (“freeware”) softwareUsing only open source (“freeware”) software• Code written in PerlCode written in Perl• Polygon values formatted in ESRI “gen” formatPolygon values formatted in ESRI “gen” format

““gen” format is common ASCII format that ESRI gen” format is common ASCII format that ESRI products can convert to/from using scriptsproducts can convert to/from using scripts

Check for new warnings each minute –and- Check for new warnings each minute –and- check for expired warnings each minute as wellcheck for expired warnings each minute as well


Step 4: Convert “gen” format into Step 4: Convert “gen” format into standard shapefile formatstandard shapefile format


The long-term database can then be used in a variety of ways to provide post-analysis and to look for trends (both weather-related as well as policy-related)

Examples: • Area of polygon (warned areas)

• Verification studies (e.g. compare LSR with warnings

• Provide summaries of storm seasons


Examples – Examples – Tornado Warnings 2004Tornado Warnings 2004


Examples – Examples – Severe Thunderstorm Warnings 2004Severe Thunderstorm Warnings 2004


Examples – Examples – Flash Flood Warnings in 2004Flash Flood Warnings in 2004


Special Marine WarningsSpecial Marine Warnings


Converting LSR Data into GIS Converting LSR Data into GIS ShapefilesShapefiles

TORNADO REPORTS Jan-Jun 2005

Note the remarkable paucity of confirmed tornado reports for 2005!


……in contrast to….in contrast to….One remarkable day, May 30th 2004 when severe weather broke out from Texas to Iowa to the Carolinas


GIS Allows Interactive Analysis Such as GIS Allows Interactive Analysis Such as Overlaying Polygon Warnings With Storm ReportsOverlaying Polygon Warnings With Storm Reports



HAIL REPORTS Jan-Jun 2005



WIND REPORTS Jan-Jun 2005


Tendency to align warnings to county Tendency to align warnings to county borders continued in 2004borders continued in 2004


Flash Flood WarningsFlash Flood Warningsthe most “county-based” of all four short-the most “county-based” of all four short-

fuse warning typesfuse warning types


Applications For Viewing Applications For Viewing Polygon WarningsPolygon Warnings

CONUS map showing warnings, updated each CONUS map showing warnings, updated each minute: minute: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/

ArcIMS map service for historical viewing: ArcIMS map service for historical viewing: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/

Texas A&M Site (warnings + radar): Texas A&M Site (warnings + radar): http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.htmlhttp://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html

Iowa Mesonet:Iowa Mesonet:http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtmlhttp://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml

New NWS RIDGE Site:New NWS RIDGE Site:http://http://www.srh.noaa.govwww.srh.noaa.gov/RIDGE/RIDGE


Busy Day….!Busy Day….! http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/http://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/


ArcIMS Map ServiceArcIMS Map Servicehttp://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.htmlhttp://www.prh.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/warn.html


Includes LSR data from SPCIncludes LSR data from SPC


Texas A&M Mesonet SiteTexas A&M Mesonet Sitehttp://mesonet.tamu.edu/PolygonTest/http://mesonet.tamu.edu/PolygonTest/


Iowa Environmental MesonetIowa Environmental Mesonethttp://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtmlhttp://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml


New RIDGE Site (hosted on SRH New RIDGE Site (hosted on SRH server)server)Uses web technology to

“simulate” an Internet map server

Allows several different radar products (including SRM) on top of hillshaded topography, roads, counties, rivers

Includes ability to animate and zoom

…and….an overlay of the active warnings in effect at the time of the radar image


Where do we go from here…..?Where do we go from here…..?

Look at a new type of All-Hazards radioLook at a new type of All-Hazards radio• Focusing on points in space rather than geopolitical Focusing on points in space rather than geopolitical

countiescounties• Fixed radio could be programmed with location (either Fixed radio could be programmed with location (either

latitude/longitude, or relative to major city [e.g., 20 mi latitude/longitude, or relative to major city [e.g., 20 mi NW of Houston]NW of Houston]

• Moving radios (including cell phones, PDA devices, all-Moving radios (including cell phones, PDA devices, all-hazard radios in cars, buses, trains) could be located hazard radios in cars, buses, trains) could be located using the now more commonly found GPS unitsusing the now more commonly found GPS units


New NOAA Radio ConceptNew NOAA Radio Concept

Warning issued for Okmulgee andMcIntosh Counties. New NWR’s use latitude/longitude (or city) rather than county/SAME code.

Residents in Checotah will not be alerted but residents in Stidham are, even though both are in McIntosh County.

GPS-enabled cell phones/cars travelling on I-40 within polygon would be alerted also.


Where do we go from here…..?Where do we go from here…..?

Automated GIS techniquesAutomated GIS techniques• Greatly facilitate verification Greatly facilitate verification • Provide more statistics (e.g., how many people were Provide more statistics (e.g., how many people were

warned with each warning by linking to population warned with each warning by linking to population databases)databases)

• More robust web dissemination possibilities --- including More robust web dissemination possibilities --- including the ability to provide custom information based on user the ability to provide custom information based on user criteriacriteria

ONE WARNING:ONE WARNING: care must be taken to consider private care must be taken to consider private sector concerns here as some businesses are also taking sector concerns here as some businesses are also taking this roadthis road


Private Sector OpportunitiesPrivate Sector OpportunitiesWhy not work WITH private sector. Some private sector companies are already strongly endorsing the polygon warning methods


Why GIS….?Why GIS….?

1. Compatibility with many other public, private, and government agencies that already use GIS data for their work and analysis

2. GIS has great analysis capabilities…able to do “what if” analysis and look for trends

3. Using polygon warnings we can provide better service by highlighting where the real threat is without worrying about geopolitical boundaries

4. A BETTER SERVICE TO OUR PUBLIC!4. A BETTER SERVICE TO OUR PUBLIC!


Questions?Questions?

My Website:My Website:• http://http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hq/regsci/giswww.srh.noaa.gov/hq/regsci/gis

Ken Waters

Regional Scientist

NWS Pacific Region

Honolulu, Hawaii

[email protected]

(808) 532-6413

Documents

Warnings and Geographic Information Systems For the National Weather Service