STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES FOR WEATHER … 06 03 SOP for Weather Inteligence and... · tsunami warnings as issued by the National Disaster Management Centre and storm surge warnings

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PROVINCIAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT CENTRE

STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES FOR WEATHER INTELLIGENCE AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

September 2013

Mr Mthokozisi P Duze

Head: Provincial Disaster Management Centre

[email protected]

Standard Operating Procedures for Weather Intelligence and Early Warning Systems

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. PURPOSE .............................................................................................................................................2

2. BACKGROUND .....................................................................................................................................2

3. WEATHER INFORMATION MANAGEMENT ...........................................................................................5

a. Decoding Received Information ...................................................................................................5

b. Watches and Warnings ................................................................................................................7

c. Special weather Advisories ..........................................................................................................9

4. POSSIBLE ACTIONS TO BE CONSIDERED UPON RECEIPT OF EARLY WARNING INFORMATION ............. 11

5. CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................................................... 13

6. REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................................... 13

7. CONTACT PERSON ............................................................................................................................. 14


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1. PURPOSE

The purpose of this document is to provide a common understanding for the

interpretation of comprehensive adverse weather related information as disseminated

by the various line function bodies or organizations for early warning purposes. This

Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) intended to provide uniform approach in the

understanding of and reaction towards the received early warning message by the

disaster management practitioners.

2. BACKGROUND

An integrated information management and communication system should be

established to achieve the objectives of Enabler one outlined in the National and

Provincial Disaster Management Policy Frameworks in line with the Disaster

Management Act (Act 57 of 2002). Early warning systems (EWS) are designed to alert

areas, communities, households and individuals to an impending or imminent

significant event or disaster so that they can take the necessary steps to avoid or

reduce the risk and prepare for an effective response. Early warnings are issued by

various organizations which are responsible for monitoring and evaluating specific risks

and hazards. The Provincial Disaster Management Centre (PDMC) must ensure that

strategic links are established with those organizations or agencies that are

responsible for disseminating the early warnings in order to develop emergency

preparedness plans for responding to a threatening incident. Early warning system

(EWS) should rather deal with significant & disastrous events that require action, than

less urgent hazards that the public should be aware off.

Major Role Players in integrated early warning:

• South African Weather Service (SAWS) - weather forecast, satellite

information;


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• Department of Water Affairs - flood warnings, dam and river levels, water

supplies;

• Department of Agriculture - crop forecasts, staple food quality, forage

availability, water irrigation and livestock;

• Department of Health - epidemics and diseases;

• Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF) – Veld fire

indexes.

There are four critical elements of an effective EWS, namely:

• Risk Knowledge has to do with the knowledge of the common risks within a

particular area. This knowledge can be generated through a disaster risk

assessment which is essential for anticipation and effective emergency

preparedness. It is therefore imperative for Municipalities to have updated

comprehensive disaster risk profiles. Profiled risks can be linked with the

seasonal forecast to near forecast or warning for better preparedness and

effective response and recovery.

• Monitoring and issue Warnings on the patterns and the weather system

development from relevant stakeholders. It is also disaster management

practitioner’s role and responsibility to visually assess and monitor weather

developments.

• Dissemination of imminent disaster warnings can be done through all kinds of

communication mediums. This is crucial for alerting all relevant stakeholders to

prepare and activate emergency response and evacuation procedures.


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• Response capability deals with a series of actions and decisions that must be

executed in response to the successful implementation of the other three

elements.

Figure 1: Four elements that form a comprehensive w eather warning system

The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) is employed in the EWS as a simple but general

digital format for exchanging all-hazard emergency alerts and public warnings over all

kinds of networks. CAP allows a consistent warning message to be disseminated

simultaneously over many different warning systems, thus increasing warning

effectiveness while simplifying the warning task.


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3. WEATHER INFORMATION MANAGEMENT

3.1. Decoding Received Information

Disaster management practitioners must familiarise themselves with several symbolic

information; colour coding, and the system’s terminology, to link it into proper reactions.

SAWS issue alerts (Advisory, Watch and Warning Update) on weather hazards which

are a threat to communities.

The alerts are issued to stakeholders and general public, media and SAWS webpage

using standard channels such emails, cell phone sms, etc. See Figure 2 below:


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Figure 2: Colour coding and hazard’s symbol interpr etation.

Advisory : Weather hazard may occur in 2 days from now or longer and public

should be aware.


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Watch: Weather Hazard may occur within a day 1 to day 3 and relevant

stakeholders and public should be prepared. Conditions are more likely

to reach the conditions of a warning.

Warning : Very high possibility that hazardous weather will occur within next

24 hours and relevant stakeholders and the public must take action. It

may also mean bad weather conditions are already occurring or

imminent.

3.2. Watches and Warnings

According to the SAWS watches and warnings are done using a Short Message

Service (SMS) to disaster management stakeholders but are also disseminated

through radio, TV, website, and email where required. The watches and warnings are

issued for the severe weather related hazards that could lead to significant or

disastrous events such as the following:

• Heavy rain of more than 50 mm in 24 hours;

• Flash flooding / localized urban flooding caused by large scale heavy rain;

• Severe thunderstorms (T/S) leading to either significant hail, tornadoes, strong

wind gusts or localized urban flooding;

• Gale force winds with a wind speed of more than 62 km/h (34 knots);

• Disruptive snow falls that could result in significant disruptions to mountain

passes, major roads, highways or populated areas;

• High swell or waves where waves in excess of 6 m may affect exposed coastal

areas.

A list of hazards requiring watches and warnings is displayed in Table 1 below.


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Severe Weather Watches / Warnings (Be prepared / Take Action)

1-3 days in advance, Could be the consequences of Intense large weather systems

Special Collaborative Warnings

Issued in collaboration with other Institutions

1. Disruptive Snowfalls 1. Veld fire conditions

2. Heavy Rain 2. Tsunami

3. Flooding 3. Storm Surges

� Heavy Rain leading to Flash flooding (non T/S)

� Localised Flooding (non T/S) .

4. Severe Thunderstorms

� Hail, gusts, tornadoes, local flooding

5. Sea State (High swell > 6 m)

6. Strong winds (Gale force)

SMS, CAP, Email, etc SMS, Email, CAP for selected hazards, etc

Table 1: List of hazards requiring watches and warn ings

Watches and warnings are also issued when needed for hazards not specifically under SAWS

mandate, but where SAWS collaborates with other institutions for issuing these warnings

through national guidelines. These include high veld-fire danger conditions (see Table: 2),

tsunami warnings as issued by the National Disaster Management Centre and storm surge

warnings.


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Colour FDI Classification Description of Classification

BLUE 0-20 INSIGNIFICANT The fire danger is so low that no precaution is required.

GREEN

21-45

LOW Fires including prescribed burns may be allowed in the opened air on

the condition that the persons making fires take responsible

precautions against fire spreading.

� Check FDIs every 2 hours.

YELLOW

46-60

MODERATE The fire danger is such that no fires maybe allowed in the open air

except those that are authorised by the Chief Fire Officer of the local

fire service and those in designated fireplaces; authorised fires may

include prescribed burns.

� Check FDIs every hour. Remain in contact at night.

ORANGE

61-75

HIGH The fire danger is such that no fire may be allowed under any

circumstances in the open air.

� Check FDIs every hour. Remain in contact at night. Be highly

aware of weather.

RED

76-100

EXTREMELY HIGH The fire danger is such that no fire may be allowed under any

circumstances in the open air; and special emergency fire preparedness

measures must be induced.

� Check FDIs every hour. Chief fire Officer take charge and

monitor. Be highly aware of weather.

Table 2: Colour coding and fire danger index classi fication.

3.3. Special weather Advisories

Such advisories are issued under two circumstances related to unusual or uncommon

weather conditions and will generally not be done through SMSs but through the normal

channels including radio, TV, web, and email where required:

• When a lesser urgent type of alert is required to advise communities that expected

weather conditions are unusual and could cause concern. These weather hazards

include:

• Extremely hot conditions above 400C, high discomfort levels, heat waves,


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• Snowfalls expected,

• Strong wind,

• Frost where it is uncommon,

• Thick fog.

• When an intense large weather system such as a tropical cyclone, tropical

depression, intense cold front or cut-off low is expected in the next 5 days, all of

which could lead to widespread potentially disruptive conditions related to heavy

rain, flooding, very cold conditions, snow, gale force winds or rough seas. The

consequences of these weather systems will be escalated into watches or warnings

as described above when these hazards become imminent in the next 1 to 3 days.

A list of phenomena that requires special weather advisories is shown in table 3 below:

Special Weather Advisories (Be Aware) (Up to 5 days in advance, do NOT escalate to warnings as such)

1. Intense large weather systems (whose consequences could lead to warnings later):

� Tropical cyclones, Tropical depressions, Intense Cold fronts, Cut-off lows

2. Lesser urgent types of alert:

� Extremely hot conditions

� High Discomfort values � Heat Waves .

� Strong interior winds

� Reduced visibility . � Widespread or coastal FOG

� Frost (uncommon or first) Email, CAP, SMS only when needed, etc.

Table 3: List of phenomena for special weather advi sories

The above described weather information system envisage to target relevant local

municipalities under threat, which allows enhanced delineation of areas under threat and for


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which the warning will be applicable. The system will then choose the hazard and warning

level; and issue the warning in a message content and format based on international

standards and practices.

Table 4: Classification of Severe Weather Hazards

HAZARD DEFINITION

1. Extremely hot conditions Maximum temperature forecast 40°C and above

2. Very cold conditions Maximum temperatures 10°C and below and/or Minimum -10°C

below

3. High discomfort values. Discomfort Index meeting or exceeding 38°C (or 100 °F)

4. Heat wave 3 consecutive days with maximum temperature be more or equal to

5°C higher than average max of the hottest month for the station

5. Gale force winds and stronger Average wind speed of more than 34knots (62 km/h) or gusts in

excess of 44 knots for land based regions

6. Veld Fire Danger Rating If the fire danger rating is high according to the National Fire

Danger Rating System work instruction.

7. Heavy rain 50 mm or more within 24 hours

8. Flash Flood Flash flood as defined by South African Flash Flood Guidance

system work instruction

9. Snow Sufficient snow to cause disruptions in passes and /or populated

areas

10.Severe thunderstorms Severe Thunderstorm with one or any combination of the following:

Hail of greater than 19 mm diameter or large amounts of small hail,

Tornadoes (any), Wind gusts 50 Knots or more in association with

a thunderstorm

11. Destructive coastal waves Abnormally high coastal waves with combination of Spring tides

and heavy swell, or total sea of >7m where the waves expected to

cause significant coastal damage.

4. POSSIBLE ACTIONS TO BE CONSIDERED UPON RECEIPT OF EARLY WARNING

INFORMATION


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Timeline Weather Information Possible Actions

Lea

d t

o a

n i

nci

de

nt

45+ days

� Seasonal forecasts provide useful

insights into macro-climatic

patterns and trends.

� Optimise tactical readiness within

emergency response structures

based on potential threats- seasonal

contingency plans.

15+ days

� A few weeks ahead of any

disaster, weather patterns can be

seen developing over large

regional areas.

� Match ‘trigger leaders’ with location

specific risk assessments and

schedule operational preparedness.

2 days

� From a two-day horizon, hourly

weather predictions for specific

locations become operationally

accurate.

� Test operational preparedness and

create ‘response awareness’ through

community based team members

1 day

� Forecast accuracy is improved

significantly to the one-day

horizon with same-day morning

observations.

� Emergency response networks are

readied for likely activity- may

activate a JOC.

8 hours

� Significant storm activity can be

detected in catchment areas and

the conditions for flood potential

ascertained.

� Modelled threats provide sufficient

time for orderly evacuation of

people and movable goods.

4 hours

� Flooding along long river systems

can be detected in advance of the

swift water reaching populated

areas.

� Prepare high value and/or sensitive

sites that can not be evacuated for

impending disaster.

1 hour

� One-hour notifications of storm

paths and rising swift water levels

for most river systems become

accurate.

� Evacuate of people and critical

movable goods such as vehicles

and/or livestock- overflowing

bridges closure.

30 min.

� Swift water observations in short

river systems and lightning and

severe storm positions.

� Rapid evacuation of groups of

people – will require pre-planning

and training of communities.

15 min

� Observation of conditions for

impending disaster.

� Audible and visual sirens triggered at

points of vulnerability.

Figure 5: The timeline and interventions to an impe nding disaster


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The timeline to a disaster illustrated in table 5 offers many points of intervention that may

reduce the impact of the event if properly translated into relevant reactions. Adverse weather

warning and direction allows improved deployment of resources against risk factors.

All stakeholders in the disaster management fraternity should be notified of the impending

disaster before an ‘evacuation’ level is reached. Disaster management authorities should

drive the evacuation of large scale communities, site preparations and moveable goods

according to their contingency planning and coordination.

Rescue team and other supporting stakeholders deployed throughout the area of disaster,

performing various activities should continue to monitor the weather developments as they

may be exposed to environmental risks such as:

• Secondary flooding

• Lightning strikes

• Low visibility conditions

• Strong and/or shifting wind conditions

5. CONCLUSION

The PDMC must ensure that all key elements of the Standard Operating Procedures for

Weather Intelligence and Early Warning Systems are taken into consideration, and that the

system is implemented. The PDMC envisage that this SOP will aid in the reduction of the

weather related risks and their impacts; improve emergency preparedness; ensure rapid and

effective disaster response and recovery in the province. All disaster management

practitioners should work closely with all stakeholders to ensure an effective implementation

of the Early Warning System.

6. REFERENCES

• Enhancement of the Severe Weather Warning System: Modified List of Weather Hazards for the Issuing of Weather Warnings South African Weather Service., 15 March 2013

• www.weathersa.co.za/ accessed on 27 May 2013


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• www.firestop.co.za accessed on 11 September 2013

• www.mlilofire.co.za accessed on 11 September 2013

• Weather Risk Management Systems Support to Disaster Management: Weather Intelligence Systems., September 2009

7. CONTACT PERSON

MRS Z C KHUZWAYO DEPUTY MANAGER: DISASTER MANAGEMENT RISK REDUCTION AND PLANNING Tel: 033 897 5661 Fax 033 897 5677 Email: [email protected]

Documents

STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES FOR WEATHER … 06 03 SOP for Weather Inteligence and... · tsunami warnings as issued by the National Disaster Management Centre and storm surge warnings