Walmart Datos Historicos

Trimestre IT Q PX PIB POB I2010/1 72,046 2,021,529 0.036 11849858.86 113.765 104160.92010/2 80,605 1,635,039 0.049 12026488.22 114.1146 105389.62010/3 81,942 797,979 0.103 12117907.97 114.468 105862.82010/4 334,511 255,295 1.310 12277658.83 114.819 106930.62011/1 85069 4,765,642 0.018 12377241.65 115.1682 1074712011/2 87936 4,869,464 0.018 12487352.21 115.5111 108105.22011/3 90553 4,931,680 0.018 12596209.62 115.8579 108721.22011/4 115463 5,208,878 0.022 12774242.72 116.2022 109931.22012/1 95966 5,255,070 0.018 12982273.42 116.5453 111392.52012/2 97401 5,332,011 0.018 13073211.74 116.8847 111847.12012/3 99752 5,391,579 0.019 13122853.61 117.226 111944.92012/4 120673 5139233.4 0.023 13283052.49 117.5641 112985.72013/1 100821 5,672,044 0.018 13064766.76 117.8982 1108142013/2 99282 5,715,716 0.017 13219587.27 118.2291 111813.32013/3 100116 5,788,670 0.017 13281983.56 118.5641 112023.72013/4 123258 5106612.4 0.024 13425236.26 118.896 112915.8

∆%IT ∆%Q

-0.65483 19.40337

0.045123 -1.337036

0.021422 -0.634744

Demanda Walmart

Modelo lineal

Y X1 X2 X3

Trimestre Q PX I PY

2010/1 2021529 0.03563936011 104160.86896 11544406.22

2010/2 1635039 0.04929851826 105389.57845 11888559.02

2010/3 797979 0.10268691281 105862.81479 11983672.31

2010/4 255295 1.31029201512 106930.59012 12428077.77

2011/1 4765642 0.01785048059 107471.03478 12058637.89

2011/2 4869464 0.01805866108 108105.1702 12273190.27

2011/3 4931680 0.01836149142 108721.18614 12484079.99

2011/4 5208878 0.02216657791 109931.15881 12965770.74

2012/1 5255070 0.0182616026 111392.53703 12648042.04

2012/2 5332011 0.01826721663 111847.05048 12825236.23

2012/3 5391579 0.01850144457 111944.87885 12881730.64

2012/4 5139233.42089 0.02348073927 112985.6526 13409301.07

2013/1 5672044 0.01777507368 110813.96003 12728411.57

2013/2 5715716 0.01737000229 111813.28192 13030080.82

2013/3 5788670 0.01729516452 112023.67444 13061615.86

2013/4 5106612.4391 0.02413694038 112915.78555 13498294.57

Promedio 4242902.61625 0.10809013758 109519.32645 12606819.188

453.259938036 -2461803.3083 -45131723.84

80.7741712368 723971.309118 8870932.7001

0.817 865828.109571 #N/A

29.0214141741 13 #N/A

4.3512289E+13 9745558099197 #N/A

Tc(0.05,13) 2.160

Tp1= -3.400 zona 1

Tp2= 5.611 zona 3

El modelo es significativo Y=-45131724-2461803.31X1+453.259938X2

Sustituyendo:

Qx=-45131724-2461803.31PX+453.259938I

Modelo doble logaritmico

LN(Y) LN(X1)

14.51936471 -3.334305

MULTICOLINEALIDAD 14.30717722 -3.009861

0.076 13.58983756 -2.276071

0.014 12.45017502 0.27025

r2(x2,x3) 0.893 15.37694282 -4.025725

15.39849443 -4.01413

15.41119026 -3.9975

15.46587504 -3.80917

15.47470388 -4.002955

15.48923902 -4.002647

15.50034885 -3.989906

15.45241449 -3.751575

15.5510601 -4.029958

15.55873013 -4.053011

15.57141312 -4.057328

15.44604681 -3.724012

8.534114612 -0.674012

1.509878799 0.035861

0.980050043 0.135303

319.3152341 13

11.69142088 0.237991El modelo doble logaritmico aplica maxima velocimilitud

TC(0.05,13)= 2.160369

TP1= -18.79496

TP2= 5.652185

El modelo es significativo

Demanda walmart trimestral

r2(x1,x2)

r2(x1,x3)

Qx=(-86.34161)(PX-0.6740116)(I8.5341146)

ƐPx= (∂Qx/∂Px)(Px/Qx)

(∂Px∕∂Px)=

0.674 Inelastico; debe subir los precios

0.674 Normal

(-86.34161)(I8.534)(Px-0.674)

|ƐPx|=

ɛI =

ƐXY=

Modelo doble logaritmico Modelo log(X)

LN(X2) Y LN(X1) LN(X2)

11.55369 2021529 -3.33430463086 11.5536918

11.56542 1635039 -3.00986125393 11.565419034

11.5699 797979 -2.27607060139 11.5698993348

11.57994 255295 0.27025002468 11.5799352125

11.58498 4765642 -4.02572484754 11.5849766463

11.59086 4869464 -4.01412987126 11.5908598304

11.59654 4931680 -3.99749966513 11.5965419588

11.60761 5208878 -3.80916962415 11.6076096199

11.62082 5255070 -4.0029546418 11.6208156117

11.62489 5332011 -4.00264726678 11.6248875963

11.62576 5391579 -3.98990646521 11.625761876

11.63502 5139233.42089 -3.75157479945 11.6350161215

11.61561 5672044 -4.02995815831 11.6156080384

11.62459 5715716 -4.05301056698 11.6245856333

11.62647 5788670 -4.05732832408 11.6264655069

11.6344 5106612.4391 -3.72401181606 11.6343975592

-86.34161 37335324.3511 -998808.172536 -432462470.257

17.45961 6222019.89516 147779.822123 71948839.9367

#N/A 0.92411498506 557568.382584 #N/A

#N/A 79.1559098694 13 #N/A

#N/A 4.9216374E+13 4041472516342 #N/AEl modelo doble logaritmico aplica maxima velocimilitud

TC(0.05,13) 2.16036865646

zona 1 TP1= -6.75875879525

zona 3 TP2= 6222019.89516


Qx=-43262470.3-998808.1725LN(PX)+37335324.25I

Inelastico; debe subir los precios

8.534)(Px-0.674)

Modelo log(Y)

LN(Y) X1 X2

14.519364714 0.035639 104160.9

14.307177215 0.049299 105389.6

13.58983756 0.102687 105862.8

12.450175018 1.310292 106930.6

15.376942818 0.01785 107471

15.398494427 0.018059 108105.2

15.411190259 0.018361 108721.2

15.465875035 0.022167 109931.2

15.474703883 0.018262 111392.5

15.489239023 0.018267 111847.1

15.50034885 0.018501 111944.9

15.452414486 0.023481 112985.7

15.551060105 0.017775 110814

15.558730132 0.01737 111813.3

15.571413117 0.017295 112023.7

15.446046815 0.024137 112915.8

0.0001464443 -1.889572 -0.799049

3.2802788E-05 0.294008 3.602529

0.865270043 0.351617 #N/A

41.744652836 13 #N/A

10.322162961 1.607249 #N/A

TC(0.05,13) 2.160369

TP1= -6.426934

TP2= 4.464386


)+37335324.25I Qx=e(-0.799049-1.889572Px+0.000146444I)

Y X1 X2 X3Trimestre Q PX I PY

2010/1 2021529 0.03563936011 104160.9 11544406.222010/2 1635039 0.04929851826 105389.6 11888559.022010/3 797979 0.10268691281 105862.8 11983672.312010/4 255295 1.31029201512 106930.6 12428077.772011/1 4765642 0.01785048059 107471 12058637.892011/2 4869464 0.01805866108 108105.2 12273190.272011/3 4931680 0.01836149142 108721.2 12484079.992011/4 5208878 0.02216657791 109931.2 12965770.742012/1 5255070 0.0182616026 111392.5 12648042.042012/2 5332011 0.01826721663 111847.1 12825236.232012/3 5391579 0.01850144457 111944.9 12881730.642012/4 5139233.42089 0.02348073927 112985.7 13409301.072013/1 5672044 0.01777507368 110814 12728411.572013/2 5715716 0.01737000229 111813.3 13030080.822013/3 5788670 0.01729516452 112023.7 13061615.862013/4 5106612.4391 0.02413694038 112915.8 13498294.57

Modelo lineal Y X1 Modelo doble log

Trimestre Q PX LN(Y)2010/1 2021529 0.03563936011 14.51936471372010/2 1635039 0.04929851826 14.30717721522010/3 797979 0.10268691281 13.58983756032010/4 255295 1.31029201512 12.45017501822011/1 4765642 0.01785048059 15.37694281842011/2 4869464 0.01805866108 15.39849442742011/3 4931680 0.01836149142 15.41119025882011/4 5208878 0.02216657791 15.46587503552012/1 5255070 0.0182616026 15.47470388292012/2 5332011 0.01826721663 15.48923902332012/3 5391579 0.01850144457 15.50034884992012/4 5139233.42089 0.02348073927 15.45241448642013/1 5672044 0.01777507368 15.55106010462013/2 5715716 0.01737000229 15.55873013172013/3 5788670 0.01729516452 15.57141311682013/4 5106612.4391 0.02413694038 15.4460468146

-3585221.032 4630429.651 -0.772

1240240.583 408485.119 0.0560.374 1543443.451 0.9318.3564 14 188.968

1.9906799E+13 3.3351048E+13 11.107

Modelo lineal Y X2

Trimestre Q I LN(Y)2010/1 2021529 104160.868964 14.51936471372010/2 1635039 105389.578451 14.30717721522010/3 797979 105862.814789 13.58983756032010/4 255295 106930.59012 12.45017501822011/1 4765642 107471.034777 15.37694281842011/2 4869464 108105.170196 15.39849442742011/3 4931680 108721.186137 15.41119025882011/4 5208878 109931.158809 15.46587503552012/1 5255070 111392.537034 15.47470388292012/2 5332011 111847.050485 15.48923902332012/3 5391579 111944.878846 15.50034884992012/4 5139233.42089 112985.652597 15.45241448642013/1 5672044 110813.960031 15.55106010462013/2 5715716 111813.281916 15.55873013172013/3 5788670 112023.674439 15.57141311682013/4 5106612.4391 112915.78555 15.4460468146

529.214 -53716231.262 22.303102.819 11264312.5451 6.7530.654 1146850.55605 0.43826.492 14 10.909

3.484412E+13 1.8413727E+13 5.224

Y X3Trimestre Q PY LN(Y)

2010/1 2021529 11544406.22 14.51936471372010/2 1635039 11888559.02 14.30717721522010/3 797979 11983672.31 13.58983756032010/4 255295 12428077.77 12.45017501822011/1 4765642 12058637.89 15.37694281842011/2 4869464 12273190.27 15.3984944274

2011/3 4931680 12484079.99 15.41119025882011/4 5208878 12965770.74 15.46587503552012/1 5255070 12648042.04 15.47470388292012/2 5332011 12825236.23 15.48923902332012/3 5391579 12881730.64 15.50034884992012/4 5139233.42089 13409301.07 15.45241448642013/1 5672044 12728411.57 15.55106010462013/2 5715716 13030080.82 15.55873013172013/3 5788670 13061615.86 15.57141311682013/4 5106612.4391 13498294.57 15.4460468146

2.27783301072 -24473326.291 10.13440366360.67754730251 8549413.55378 4.67197819921

0.447 1450815.93759 0.25211.3022399662 14 4.705380867222.3789711E+13 2.9468136E+13 3.00087060859

Modelo doble log Modelo log(X) Modelo log(Y)LN(X) Y LN(X) LN(Y)

-3.3343046309 2021529 -3.33430463086 14.51936-3.0098612539 1635039 -3.00986125393 14.30718-2.2760706014 797979 -2.27607060139 13.589840.27025002468 255295 0.27025002468 12.45018-4.0257248475 4765642 -4.02572484754 15.37694-4.0141298713 4869464 -4.01412987126 15.39849-3.9974996651 4931680 -3.99749966513 15.41119-3.8091696241 5208878 -3.80916962415 15.46588-4.0029546418 5255070 -4.0029546418 15.4747-4.0026472668 5332011 -4.00264726678 15.48924-3.9899064652 5391579 -3.98990646521 15.50035-3.7515747995 5139233.42089 -3.75157479945 15.45241-4.0299581583 5672044 -4.02995815831 15.55106-4.053010567 5715716 -4.05301056698 15.55873-4.0573283241 5788670 -4.05732832408 15.57141-3.7240118161 5106612.4391 -3.72401181606 15.44605

12.341 -1429060.31046 -741651.039039 -2.252538

0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 00

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

X1

X1 PX

0.205 241762.385772 882672.767819 0.4333330.242 0.714 1043180.72265 0.659

14 34.940 14 27.020950.823 3.8022683E+13 1.5235164E+13 7.858035

LN(X) Y LN(X) LN(Y)11.5536918 2021529 11.5536918 14.51936

11.565419034 1635039 11.565419034 14.3071811.5698993348 797979 11.5698993348 13.5898411.5799352125 255295 11.5799352125 12.4501811.5849766463 4765642 11.5849766463 15.3769411.5908598304 4869464 11.5908598304 15.3984911.5965419588 4931680 11.5965419588 15.4111911.6076096199 5208878 11.6076096199 15.4658811.6208156117 5255070 11.6208156117 15.474711.6248875963 5332011 11.6248875963 15.4892411.625761876 5391579 11.625761876 15.5003511.6350161215 5139233.42089 11.6350161215 15.4524111.6156080384 5672044 11.6156080384 15.5510611.6245856333 5715716 11.6245856333 15.5587311.6264655069 5788670 11.6264655069 15.5714111.6343975592 5106612.4391 11.6343975592 15.44605

-243.760 57739436.7647 -665738352.959 0.00020578.356 11138524.0092 129246506.557 6.209E-050.692 0.657 1141516.54259 0.437

14 26.8713691774 14 10.875036.705 3.5015007E+13 1.824284E+13 5.215379

LN(X) Y LN(X) LN(Y)16.2617115677 2021529 16.2617115677 14.5193616.2910870687 1635039 16.2910870687 14.3071816.2990556404 797979 16.2990556404 13.5898416.3354688071 255295 16.3354688071 12.4501816.3052917984 4765642 16.3052917984 15.3769416.3229277886 4869464 16.3229277886 15.39849

16.3399647898 4931680 16.3399647898 15.4111916.3778234229 5208878 16.3778234229 15.4658816.3530129817 5255070 16.3530129817 15.474716.3669253683 5332011 16.3669253683 15.4892416.3713206361 5391579 16.3713206361 15.5003516.4114591338 5139233.42089 16.4114591338 15.4524116.3593471843 5672044 16.3593471843 15.5510616.3827711517 5715716 16.3827711517 15.55873

16.3851884 5788670 16.3851884 15.5714116.4180739073 5106612.4391 16.4180739073 15.44605

-150.65054909 28705191.4752 -465053661.406 8.087E-0776.3816819633 8446409.19683 138089458.789 3.73E-070.79859436946 0.452 1443768.47218 0.251

14 11.5498584354 14 4.7007698.92854153699 2.4075303E+13 2.9182544E+13 2.998668

Modelo log(Y)X

0.0356393601080.0492985182620.1026869128131.31029201512

0.0178504805860.0180586610760.0183614914190.0221665779080.0182616026050.0182672166280.0185014445680.0234807392690.0177750736770.0173700022880.01729516452

0.024136940383

15.27866551892

0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 00

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

X1

X1 PX

0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 098000

100000

102000

104000

106000

108000

110000

112000

114000

X2

X2 I

0.1427224123120.539270495597

144.071377343904

X104160.8689641105389.5784506105862.8147889106930.5901202107471.0347772108105.1701963108721.186137

109931.1588088111392.537034111847.050485111944.878846112985.652597

110813.9600313111813.281916

112023.6744389112915.78555

-7.388139081456.8018272191460.692512685283

146.714033469884

X11544406.2211888559.0211983672.3112428077.7712058637.8912273190.27

12484079.9912965770.7412648042.0412825236.2312881730.6413409301.0712728411.5713030080.8213061615.8613498294.57

4.8399577249394.7065621936930.79869284588

148.930743668836

0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 098000

100000

102000

104000

106000

108000

110000

112000

114000

X2

X2 I

0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 010500000

11000000

11500000

12000000

12500000

13000000

13500000

14000000 X3

X3 PY

0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 010500000

11000000

11500000

12000000

12500000

13000000

13500000

14000000 X3

X3 PY

Y

Trimestre QX PY II III2010/1 2021529 11544406.22 0 02010/2 1635039 11888559.02 1 02010/3 797979 11983672.31 0 12010/4 255295 12428077.77 0 02011/1 4765642 12058637.89 0 02011/2 4869464 12273190.27 1 02011/3 4931680 12484079.99 0 12011/4 5208878 12965770.74 0 02012/1 5255070 12648042.04 0 02012/2 5332011 12825236.23 1 02012/3 5391579 12881730.64 0 12012/4 5139233.420886 13409301.07 0 02013/1 5672044 12728411.57 0 02013/2 5715716 13030080.82 1 02013/3 5788670 13061615.86 0 02013/4 5106612.439102 13498294.57 0 0

PROMEDIO 4242902.616249 12606819.188125

PERIODO -2147937.8478 -689470.750051246 -152956 2.65368252010-13 979352.8291336 956964.38763151 871323.15 0.6615754

0.625 1346991.63836391 #N/A #N/A4.588272163024 11 #N/A #N/A33299595803228 19958251212045.3 #N/A #N/A

PERIODO 2010-2011 -7610283.45489 -3884047.52636026 -2309255 7.7605175

1011896.893035 728852.904826922 666304 0.89520580.962 617593.735117028 #N/A #N/A

19.17299656042 3 #N/A #N/A29252012437100 1144266064967.41 #N/A #N/A

TC(0.05,3) 3.182

8.669 zona 3

-3.466 zona 1

X3 X4 X5

TP1=

TP2=

-5.329 zona1

-7.521 zona 1

PERIODO 2010-2012 -3990135.61165 -1817915.00831396 -1080852 4.1266891

1222465.02662 1028464.3680141 1001510 0.86059250.769 1199035.12038498 #N/A #N/A

5.824656837776 7 #N/A #N/A33496092187029 10063796539416.4 #N/A #N/A

TP3=

TP4=

IV0001000100010000

-28641339.68347301.778

#N/A#N/A#N/A

-88192333.110573813.33

#N/A#N/A Donde:

#N/A -88192333.096 88192333.1

7.76051751368

-2309254.6672

-3884047.5264

-7610283.4549

-101995918.74 101995918.7

X6

B0=

B1=

B2=

B3=

B4=

BA=

-13803585.65

-45851573.3 El PIB/HAB es mayor en todos los trimestres menos en el primero

10422154.22 Q

#N/A#N/A#N/A

BA>BO

BA=-101995919

Bo=88192333

Q1= -88192333.1+7.7X1

Q2= -101995919+7.7X1

El PIB/HAB es mayor en todos los trimestres menos en el primero

Q2

Q1

Q1= -88192333.1+7.7X1

Q2= -101995919+7.7X1

(∂Qx/∂Px) 7.76

ɛXY=(∂Qx/∂Px)(Py/Px)

(Py/Qx) 2.97127234

23.05861ɛXY=

Y X1 X2 X3Trimestre Q PX I PY

2010/1 2021529 0.03563936 104160.9 11544406.222010/2 1635039 0.049298518 105389.6 11888559.022010/3 797979 0.102686913 105862.8 11983672.312010/4 255295 1.310292015 106930.6 12428077.772011/1 4765642 0.017850481 107471 12058637.892011/2 4869464 0.018058661 108105.2 12273190.272011/3 4931680 0.018361491 108721.2 12484079.992011/4 5208878 0.022166578 109931.2 12965770.742012/1 5255070 0.018261603 111392.5 12648042.042012/2 5332011 0.018267217 111847.1 12825236.232012/3 5391579 0.018501445 111944.9 12881730.642012/4 5139233.421 0.023480739 112985.7 13409301.072013/1 5672044 0.017775074 110814 12728411.572013/2 5715716 0.017370002 111813.3 13030080.822013/3 5788670 0.017295165 112023.7 13061615.862013/4 5106612.439 0.02413694 112915.8 13498294.57

-1.43974429 726.3218166 -2076923 -56928282.71.38508227 274.7595591 811176.6 14387559.910.83212716 863160.1838 #N/A #N/A19.82755899 12 #N/A #N/A4.43173E+13 8.94055E+12 #N/A #N/A

TC= 2.17881283TP1= -2.56038323TP2= 2.643481519TP3= -1.03946482

LN(Y) LN(X) LN(X2) LN(X3)14.51936 -3.334305 11.55369 16.2617114.30718 -3.009861 11.56542 16.2910913.58984 -2.276071 11.5699 16.2990612.45018 0.27025 11.57994 16.3354715.37694 -4.025725 11.58498 16.3052915.39849 -4.01413 11.59086 16.3229315.41119 -3.9975 11.59654 16.3399615.46588 -3.80917 11.60761 16.3778215.4747 -4.002955 11.62082 16.3530115.48924 -4.002647 11.62489 16.3669315.50035 -3.989906 11.62576 16.3713215.45241 -3.751575 11.63502 16.4114615.55106 -4.029958 11.61561 16.3593515.55873 -4.053011 11.62459 16.3827715.57141 -4.057328 11.62647 16.3851915.44605 -3.724012 11.6344 16.41807

2.923075 3.419553 -0.698337 -74.868383.015838 5.489606 0.04384 21.127880.981498 0.13562 #N/A #N/A212.1981 12 #N/A #N/A11.7087 0.220713 #N/A #N/A

TC= 2.178813TP1= -15.92919TP2= 0.622914TP3= 0.969241

Trimestre2010/1 15,804 5,734 10,0702010/2 17,655 6,186 11,4692010/3 17,929 5,966 11,9632010/4 22,671 17,714 4,9572011/1 18,862 6,533 12,3292011/2 19,025 5,956 13,0692011/3 19,763 6,588 13,1752011/4 26,048 11,002 15,0462012/1 11,002 6,604 4,3982012/2 22,094 6,975 15,1192012/3 22,705 7,315 15,3902012/4 28,613 11,505 17,1082013/1 21,606 6,726 14,8802013/2 21,855 6,996 14,8592013/3 22,542 7,374 15,1682013/4 27,620 10,407 17,213

Utilidad bruta

Utilidad de operación

Gastos de operación

Modelo lineal Modelo doble logaritmo

Y XTrimestre Q PMKT LN(Y) LN(X)

2010/1 2021529 10,070 14.51936 9.2173162010/2 1635039 11469 14.30718 9.3474032010/3 797979 11963 13.58984 9.3895742010/4 255295 4957 12.45018 8.5085562011/1 4765642 12329 15.37694 9.4197092011/2 4869464 13069 15.39849 9.4779982011/3 4931680 13175 15.41119 9.4860762011/4 5208878 15046 15.46588 9.6188672012/1 5255070 4398 15.4747 8.3889052012/2 5332011 15119 15.48924 9.6237082012/3 5391579 15390 15.50035 9.6414732012/4 5139233.421 17108 15.45241 9.7473012013/1 5672044 14880 15.55106 9.6077732013/2 5715716 14859 15.55873 9.6063612013/3 5788670 15168 15.57141 9.6269432013/4 5106612.439 17213 15.44605 9.75342

285.2381828 566663.7788 1.251173 3.269364110.2714381 1476725.611 0.492293 4.633373

0.323 1604358.247 0.315716 0.7635966.690972499 14 6.45934 141.72223E+13 3.60355E+13 3.766306 8.163107

Modelo lineal Y X X2 X3 X4

Trimestre Q PMKT II III IV2010/1 2021529 10,070 0 0 02010/2 1635039 11469 1 0 02010/3 797979 11963 0 1 02010/4 255295 4957 0 0 12011/1 4765642 12329 0 0 02011/2 4869464 13069 1 0 02011/3 4931680 13175 0 1 02011/4 5208878 15046 0 0 1

2012/1 5255070 4398 0 0 02012/2 5332011 15119 1 0 02012/3 5391579 15390 0 1 02012/4 5139233.421 17108 0 0 12013/1 5672044 14880 0 0 02013/2 5715716 14859 1 0 02013/3 5788670 15168 0 0 02013/4 5106612.439 17213 0 0 0

PERIODO 2010-13 -1241971.66 -1410195.69 -765027 299.2402 1074740

1181833.974 1189618.245 1089215 116.5233 15918950.423035807 1671359.565 #N/A #N/A #N/A2.016326979 11 #N/A #N/A #N/A

2.253E+13 3.07279E+13 #N/A #N/A #N/A

PERIODO 2010-11 55236.01687 -1348095.4 -781191 598.2763 -3E+06

1845282.967 1852409.761 1840552 244.6387 30275840.672409736 1821860.305 #N/A #N/A #N/A1.539445328 3 #N/A #N/A #N/A2.04388E+13 9.95752E+12 #N/A #N/A #N/A

PERIODO2010-12 -1659405.97 -1877658.12 -2E+06 343.163 948834

1731874.525 1810006.547 1788327 174.1077 19336890.363372292 1990385.178 #N/A #N/A #N/A0.998859308 7 #N/A #N/A #N/A1.58285E+13 2.77314E+13 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Modelo log(Y) Modelo log(X)

LN(Y) X Y LN(X)

14.5193647 10070 2021529 9.217316

14.3071772 11469 1635039 9.347403

13.5898376 11963 797979 9.389574

12.450175 4957 255295 8.508556

15.3769428 12329 4765642 9.419709

15.3984944 13069 4869464 9.477998

15.4111903 13175 4931680 9.486076

15.465875 15046 5208878 9.618867

15.4747039 4398 5255070 8.388905

15.489239 15119 5332011 9.623708

15.5003488 15390 5391579 9.641473

15.4524145 17108 5139233 9.747301

15.5510601 14880 5672044 9.607773

15.5587301 14859 5715716 9.606361

15.5714131 15168 5788670 9.626943

15.4460468 17213 5106612 9.75342

0.000144 13.17801 2298225 -2E+075E-05 0.675226 1097215 1E+07

0.368447 0.733585 0.238607 17018938.167566 14 4.387339 144.395352 7.53406 1.27E+134.06E+13

Conclucion:La publicidad no afecta a la demanda

PROYECTAR LOS DATOS DE P(x) E (x) PARA EL TRIOMESTRE 2015

P(x)=yTIEMPO= x Modelo lineal Modelo doble logaritmo

Y XTrimestre PX T LN(Y) LN(X)

2010/1 0.0356 1 -3.3343046 02010/2 0.0493 2 -3.0098613 0.6931472010/3 0.1027 3 -2.2760706 1.0986122010/4 1.3103 4 0.27025 1.3862942011/1 0.0179 5 -4.0257248 1.6094382011/2 0.0181 6 -4.0141299 1.7917592011/3 0.0184 7 -3.9974997 1.945912011/4 0.0222 8 -3.8091696 2.0794422012/1 0.0183 9 -4.0029546 2.1972252012/2 0.0183 10 -4.0026473 2.3025852012/3 0.0185 11 -3.9899065 2.3978952012/4 0.0235 12 -3.7515748 2.4849072013/1 0.0178 13 -4.0299582 2.5649492013/2 0.0174 14 -4.0530106 2.6390572013/3 0.0173 15 -4.0573283 2.708052013/4 0.0241 16 -3.7240118 2.7725892014/1 0.0010 172014/2 0.0009 182014/3 0.0008 192014/4 0.0008 202015/1 0.0007 21

Rational Function:

y=(a+bx)/(1+cx+dx^2)Coefficient Data:

a = -4.78E-04b = 8.34E-04c = -5.60E-01d = 7.77E-02

-0.0192974713 0.2721186 -0.6259109 -2.2881280.01728465756 0.1671347 0.3381987 0.6979280.08175421516 0.3187133 0.1965641 1.0336711.24646258244 14 3.4251615 140.12661341495 1.4220947 3.6597033 14.95867

Y X X4 X5 X6Trimestre PX T II III IV

2010/1 0.0356 1 0 0 02010/2 0.0493 2 1 0 02010/3 0.1027 3 0 1 02010/4 1.3103 4 0 0 12011/1 0.0179 5 0 0 02011/2 0.0181 6 1 0 02011/3 0.0184 7 0 1 02011/4 0.0222 8 0 0 12012/1 0.0183 9 0 0 02012/2 0.0183 10 1 0 02012/3 0.0185 11 0 1 02012/4 0.0235 12 0 0 12013/1 0.0178 13 0 0 02013/2 0.0174 14 1 0 02013/3 0.0173 15 0 0 02013/4 0.0241 16 0 0 0

PERIODO2010-13 0.39702785425 -0.0265038 -0.0292033 -0.0180684 0.199499

0.21607256799 0.2191293 0.19765075 0.0168839 0.2068990.350 0.302421 #N/A #N/A #N/A

1.48336584073 11 #N/A #N/A #N/A0.54266528671 1.0060428 #N/A #N/A #N/A

PERIODO2010-11 0.90601180029 0.2114642 0.09577614 -0.0888425 0.293272

0.49824320793 0.4668751 0.44699887 0.0778125 0.3890630.591 0.4401741 #N/A #N/A #N/A

1.08578861034 3 #N/A #N/A #N/A0.841500094 0.5812596 #N/A #N/A #N/A

PERIODO

2010-12 0.56113192372 0.1113123 0.04898075 -0.0443564 0.2456990.30069332503 0.2926159 0.28766065 0.0309593 0.25467

0.430 0.3502645 #N/A #N/A #N/A1.31980821322 7 #N/A #N/A #N/A0.64768401964 0.8587968 #N/A #N/A #N/A

PERIODO2011-13 0.0048072781 0.0004691 0.00025455 5.3995E-05 0.017476

0.00043000615 0.0004255 0.00043001 6.2283E-05 0.0006220.975 0.0004661 #N/A #N/A #N/A

39.5336020621 4 #N/A #N/A #N/A3.4351757E-05 8.6893E-07 #N/A #N/A #N/A

TC(0.05,4)= 2.7764451TP1= 0.8669323 ZONA 2TP2= 0.5919639 ZONA 2TP3= 1.1024996 ZONA 2TP4= 11.179557 ZONA 3

PERIODO 2012-13 0.00454868397 -8.25E-05 -0.0011134 0.0003481 0.014755

0.00339484233 0.0035177 0.00265831 0.0004926 0.0066950.502 0.0029861 #N/A #N/A #N/A

0.75469849517 3 #N/A #N/A #N/A2.6917606E-05 2.675E-05 #N/A #N/A #N/A

PERIODO 2011-13 0.00406165325 -0.0001419 -0.0008634 0.0001887 0.016875

0.00173500395 0.0017732 0.00152084 0.0001786 0.0022640.559 0.0020454 #N/A #N/A #N/A

2.22173079587207 7 #N/A #N/A #N/A3.718041242108E-05 2.9286051E-05 #N/A #N/A #N/A

PERIODO 2010-12 0.525811697300699 0.1841513493 0.09199485872 -0.0918879615 0.661271772

0.366790173706733 0.4115152426 0.40109544398 0.0531263894 0.4661821750.573 0.3975614945 #N/A #N/A #N/A

1.34309300269184 4 #N/A #N/A #N/A0.849131020688253 0.6322205677 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Modelo doble logaritmo Modelo LN(Y) Modelo LN(X)

LN(Y) X Y LN(X)-3.334305 1 0.035639 0-3.009861 2 0.049299 0.693147-2.276071 3 0.102687 1.0986120.27025 4 1.310292 1.386294

-4.025725 5 0.01785 1.609438-4.01413 6 0.018059 1.791759-3.9975 7 0.018361 1.94591-3.80917 8 0.022167 2.079442-4.002955 9 0.018262 2.197225-4.002647 10 0.018267 2.302585-3.989906 11 0.018501 2.397895-3.751575 12 0.023481 2.484907-4.029958 13 0.017775 2.564949-4.053011 14 0.01737 2.639057-4.057328 15 0.017295 2.70805-3.724012 16 0.024137 2.772589

-0.111588 -2.539494 -0.087661 0.2761350.054973 0.531561 0.106268 0.2193020.227391 1.013647 0.046351 0.3247994.120424 14 0.680459 144.233652 14.38472 0.071785 1.476923


Y XTrimestre PY T LN(Y) LN(X)

2010/1 11544406.22 1 16.26171157 02010/2 11888559.02 2 16.29108707 0.6931472010/3 11983672.31 3 16.29905564 1.0986122010/4 12428077.77 4 16.33546881 1.3862942011/1 12058637.89 5 16.3052918 1.6094382011/2 12273190.27 6 16.32292779 1.7917592011/3 12484079.99 7 16.33996479 1.945912011/4 12965770.74 8 16.37782342 2.0794422012/1 12648042.04 9 16.35301298 2.1972252012/2 12825236.23 10 16.36692537 2.3025852012/3 12881730.64 11 16.37132064 2.3978952012/4 13409301.07 12 16.41145913 2.4849072013/1 12728411.57 13 16.35934718 2.5649492013/2 13030080.82 14 16.38277115 2.6390572013/3 13061615.86 15 16.3851884 2.708052013/4 13498294.57 16 16.41807391 2.7725892014/1 17 17.14387477 2.8332132014/2 18 18.89170643 2.8903722014/3 19 27.87394201 2.9444392014/4 20 159.2181626 2.9957322015/1 21 1076044.336 3.044522

105845.0678 11707136.11 0.051431162 16.2502512767.99496 123460.6355 0.00587106 0.012116

0.831 235430.1943 0.846 0.01794468.72200881 14 76.73962316 143.80908E+12 7.75983E+11 0.024710047 0.004508

TC(0.05,14)= 2.145 TC(0.05,14)= 2.145TP= 8.289873872 TP= 8.760115

Modelo significativo

Modelo LN(Y) Modelo LN(X)

LN(Y) X Y LN(X)16.26171 1 11544406.22 016.29109 2 11888559.02 0.6931471805616.29906 3 11983672.31 1.0986122886716.33547 4 12428077.77 1.3862943611216.30529 5 12058637.89 1.6094379124316.32293 6 12273190.27 1.7917594692316.33996 7 12484079.99 1.9459101490616.37782 8 12965770.74 2.0794415416816.35301 9 12648042.04 2.1972245773416.36693 10 12825236.23 2.3025850929916.37132 11 12881730.64 2.397895272816.41146 12 13409301.07 2.4849066497916.35935 13 12728411.57 2.5649493574616.38277 14 13030080.82 2.6390573296216.38519 15 13061615.86 2.708050201116.41807 16 13498294.57 2.77258872224

0.00845 16.27702 639750.244137 11380423.56370.001019 0.009854 76318.0248026 157494.683872

0.831 0.018791 0.834 233258.54717268.74696 14 70.269469845 140.024275 0.004943 3823330220986 761733697606

TC(0.05,14)= 2.145 TC(0.05,14)= 2.145TP= 8.291379 TP= 8.38268870023


Y XTrimestre I T LN(Y) LN(X)

2010/1 104161 1 11.55369 02010/2 105390 2 11.56542 0.6931472010/3 105863 3 11.5699 1.0986122010/4 106931 4 11.57994 1.3862942011/1 107471 5 11.58498 1.6094382011/2 108105 6 11.59086 1.7917592011/3 108721 7 11.59654 1.945912011/4 109931 8 11.60761 2.0794422012/1 111393 9 11.62082 2.1972252012/2 111847 10 11.62489 2.3025852012/3 111945 11 11.62576 2.3978952012/4 112986 12 11.63502 2.4849072013/1 110814 13 11.61561 2.5649492013/2 111813 14 11.62459 2.6390572013/3 112024 15 11.62647 2.708052013/4 112916 16 11.6344 2.7725892014/1 17 12.09719 2.8332132014/2 18 13.20055 2.8903722014/3 19 18.67276 2.9444392014/4 20 88.26592 2.9957322015/1 21 226994 3.044522

568.5475 104687 0.03203 11.5421355.21101 533.8651 0.002651 0.00547

0.883 1018.041 0.913 0.008102106.043 14 146.0087 141.1E+08 14509698 0.009584 0.000919

TC(0.05,14)=2.144787TP= 12.08341

Modelo significativo

Modelo LN(Y) Modelo LN(X)

LN(Y) X Y LN(X)11.55369 1 104161 011.56542 2 105390 0.69314711.5699 3 105863 1.09861211.57994 4 106931 1.38629411.58498 5 107471 1.60943811.59086 6 108105 1.79175911.59654 7 108721 1.9459111.60761 8 109931 2.07944211.62082 9 111393 2.19722511.62489 10 111847 2.30258511.62576 11 111945 2.39789511.63502 12 112986 2.48490711.61561 13 110814 2.56494911.62459 14 111813 2.63905711.62647 15 112024 2.7080511.6344 16 112916 2.772589

0.00522 11.55916 3477.275 1028530.00051 0.00493 296.0195 610.88450.882 0.009401 0.908 904.7546

104.8429 14 137.9867 140.009266 0.001237 1.13E+0811460131

Y XTrimestre Q T LN(Q) LN(T)

2010/1 2021529 1 14.5193647 02010/2 1635039 2 R2(YX)= 0.6064957 14.3071772 0.693147182010/3 797979 3 13.5898376 1.098612292010/4 255295 4 12.450175 1.386294362011/1 4765642 5 15.3769428 1.609437912011/2 4869464 6 15.3984944 1.791759472011/3 4931680 7 15.4111903 1.945910152011/4 5208878 8 15.465875 2.079441542012/1 5255070 9 15.4747039 2.197224582012/2 5332011 10 15.489239 2.302585092012/3 5391579 11 15.5003488 2.397895272012/4 5139233 12 15.4524145 2.484906652013/1 5672044 13 15.5510601 2.564949362013/2 5715716 14 15.5587301 2.639057332013/3 5788670 15 15.5714131 2.70805022013/4 5106612 16 15.4460468 2.772588722014/1 172014/2 182014/3 192014/4 202015/1 21

LN(Q) T

14.5193647 1

R2(YX)= 0.39226412 14.3071772 2 R2(YX)= 0.40621653

13.5898376 3

12.450175 4

15.3769428 5

15.3984944 6

15.4111903 7

15.465875 8

15.4747039 9

15.489239 10

15.5003488 11

15.4524145 12

15.5510601 13

15.5587301 14

15.5714131 15

15.4460468 16

Q LN(T)

2021529 0

1635039 0.69314718 R2(YX)= 0.65409003

797979 1.09861229

255295 1.38629436

4765642 1.60943791

4869464 1.79175947

4931680 1.94591015

5208878 2.07944154

5255070 2.19722458

5332011 2.30258509

5391579 2.39789527

5139233.42 2.48490665

5672044 2.56494936

5715716 2.63905733

5788670 2.7080502

5106612.44 2.77258872

Efecto integral de la elasticidadX1 X2

Δ%X Δ%Y1

5106612 0.674 0.0241 0.001 -96.99% -65.37% 0.674

Px el ultimo Año Cambio Porcentual en Q Y=I

Qx(Y1),2013 ԐpX= XA XBx ԐI=

X3 Y3

Δ%X Δ%Y2

112,915.7856 226993.819 101.03% 68.09% 23.05861104 13,498,294.5700 1076044.34

XA XBI ԐXY= XA XBY

Y=Py

Δ%Toneladas

Δ%X Δ%Y3 Δ%YT

-92.03% -2122.04% -2119.33% 4024355.17 Proyección conjunta de las elasticidades

Qx(Y2),2015

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