W. Udo Schröder, 2019

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W. Udo Schröder, 2019

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Drivers of Environmental Change Impacts and Responses


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Present levels of GHG (>410 ppm) in

environment require adaptation, in addition

to mitigation.

From IPCC climate synthesis report 2007.

Urban environment: Pollution →

smog, toxic gases, particulates

Economic (GDP) Cost of Loss of Life & Health


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Sulfur, nitrogen oxides, particulates from China’s coal-fired power plants → acid rain on Seoul/SK, Tokyo/JP, particulate pollution in Los Angeles (J. Geophys. Res.).

Dangerous: Beijing Smog > 2010

Exacerbating climate/pollution effects > 50% of world population now urban. Increasing trend2000-2030, developing world: +2 billion urban people.Growth in energy demand: satisfied from biomass and fossil fuels, mainly coal (+50%).Particulates: PM 2.5: ≤2.5 m diameter ash etc.

Ethical and Policy Dilemmas

1. Protection of environment vs. economic efficiency.

2. Utilization of powerful new technologies vs. extensive risk/benefit study.

3. Imposition of technology risks/cost without public consent vs. paralysis of

decision making. Role of experts vs. public.

4. Public interest vs. individual liberties and preferences (eminent domain).

5. Technological possibilities vs. basic human needs (biofuels vs. bio-food).

6. Mitigation vs. adaptation to pollution and climate change.

Partially adapted from: I. Barbour, H. Brooks, S. Lakoff, J. Opie, “Energy and American Values,” Praeger Publishers, Nat. Hum. Center, Research Triangle Park, NC, 1982.


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Summary of US Environmental/Energy Policies and Choices

37. President Richard M. Nixon (1969-74): Clean Air Act 1970 , Clean Water Act 1972 (Nixon vetoed !) → “war on pollution” 1960s → era of

environmental regulation, emission limits on power plants. End of era of cheap domestic energy resources, which had been used while neglecting environment → growing dependence on imports, growing interest in

maintaining, or enhancing, valuable environment.

October 1973 Oil Embargo by Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Bahrain, Abu Dhabi, Libya. Prompted call for “Project (Energy) Independence” or “energy security.” Federal Energy Office (Fed E Admin) to manage energy crisis, oil prices. Environmental Resources and Development Admin →

R&D, towards energy independence.

New energy policy: meet essential requirements consistent with environmental and social goals. Stimulate utilization of all domestic energy resources, including outer continental shelf, remove price and bureaucratic barriers restricting production of gas and oil.


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Generally accepted, “national” energy policy and choices/steering of energy markets currently tried in Europe, China, India... Missing in the US.

32. President Franklin D. Roosevelt (1933-45): New Deal energy

paradigm, after WWII legislative proposals, institutional reform (rules, regulations), assumptions about future energy supply & demand.

General “value” shifts in 1950s and 60s societies: Now considering

environmental impact of policies, environmental and antiwar movements.

..............

38. President Gerald R. Ford (1974-76) continued policy of Nixon/Ford administration.

Energy Policies of US Administrations

39. President Jimmy Carter (1977-81) (“Malaise” speech, April 18, 1977):

" The energy crisis has not yet overwhelmed us, but it will if we do not act quickly.“ Energy → center of policy, promoted renewables, installed rooftop solar

panels on White House, cogeneration, Public Utility Regulation Act (PURPA) 1978, utilities required to purchase power from qualifying facilities.


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40. President Ronald Reagan (1981-89): Viewed energy as a major issue in the Cold War. Energy independence/security.Reduce role of government, “deregulation,” shift to market solutions “supply and demand,” choice of cheapest ways to uphold standard of living, cut federal programs for energy, transferred decision making process to the states, the private sector, and individuals. Introduced unleaded gasoline. Prohibits export of US crude oil.

41. President George H.W. Bush (1989-93): Continued policy of limiting government regulation of the energy industry, reduced U.S. dependence on foreign oil by increasing domestic oil production and use of nuclear power, producing additional oil from environmentally sensitive areas, encouraged pipeline construction, simplified construction permit process for nuclear power plants, increasing competition in the production of electricity. 1990: Clean Air Amendment → Acid rain, ozone depletion,

emission allowances (caps, stationary + mobile emitters).



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44. President Barack Obama (2009 - 2016):Recognizes climate change and anthropogenic influences. Promotes and invests (incentives, tax credits), in wind, solar, clean coal (DOE Program), new biofuels, a “hundred-year supply of natural gas.” Stopped oil pipelines (XL, ND Access). Supported development of nuclear tech/build (credit guarantees), but stopped Yucca Mountain radio-active depository. New appliance standards, building codes, CAFÉ fuel standards

34.5mpg→54.5 mpg (2025).

Experiments in CCS

43. President George W. Bush (2001-2009):Executive order “cut gasoline consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles.” Reduce US gasoline usage by 20% within 10 years, cutting imports, increase the supply of alternative fuels, mandatory fuels automotive standard, use of renewable and alternative fuels (switchgrass). Open federal lands (ANWAR) to oil exploration and drilling, ease regulations on refineries and pipelines. Energy Policy Act of 2005. CAFE (Corp. Av. Fuel. Ec) standards →

35.5mpg (2016). Various policy decisions/regs.

42. President William J. Clinton (1993-2001):more government involvement in energy and environmental issues, major energy bills proposed by administration were not passed into law by the Republican dominated Congress, increased funding of alternative energy research, mandated new energy efficiency measures, and enforced automotive emission standards. But also opened federal lands for oil exploration, including some Alaskan and offshore areas.

Obama Admin. 2014: Clean Power Plan


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Currently national limits on various (metals: As, Hg,..) emissions from power plants, SO2, none so far on CO2 (“carbon”).

June 2014, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, under President Obama’s “Climate Action Plan,” proposed plan to cut carbon emission from power plants by 30% by 2030, under umbrella of Clean Air Act (public health, climate, no particular national strategy, leave initiative to states).

CCS test plants in Canada, Germany,..

CCS in Norway Sleipner gas well.

CO2 Scrubber on coal power plant

U.S. States opposing proposed EPA ruling:

Unspecified methods, technological

barriers, expense, time span until 2030.

(Notice of Proposed Rule Making, public hearings. Congress did not grant approval.)


45. President Donald Trump (2017 - ):Does not recognize anthropogenic influences on climate change. Promotes and invests (incentives, tax credits), in fossil fuels. Granted permission for construction of oil pipelines (XL, ND Access).

2017: Took US out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement between 195 countries (voluntary GHG reductions, financial aid to developing countries, report/control/adjust mechanisms). Directed EPA to revise Clean Water Act.

Rescinded Clean Power Act (Obama admin., 2014). Loosened regulations on power plant emissions, automobile CAFÉ fuel/emission standards.


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Rescinded Clean Power Act (Obama admin., 2014). Dec. 20, 2018: proposed several options (0.4-1.6 M acres) on new prospecting rights for Arctic National Wildlife Refuge,

leasing the land for oil development. Reduced area of national parks in favor of commercial development.

Summary of Relevant U.S. Environmental Laws


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• 1955 Clean Air Act

• 1963 Revised Clean Air Act

• 1964 Wilderness Act

• 1965 Water Quality Act

• 1967 Air Quality Act

• 1968 Wild and Scenic Rivers Act

• 1970 National Environmental Policie Act


• 1970 Occupational Safety and Health Act

• 1972 Clean Water Act

• 1972 Marine Mammal Protection Act

• 1973 Endangered Species Act

• 1974 Safe Drinking Water Act

• 1976 Toxic Substances Control Act

• 1976 Resource Conservation and Recovery Act

• 1980 Superfund Act (Acid deposition etc.)

• 1990 Amendments to Clean Air Act

• ......


• ......

• 2013 (Climate Action Plan, not enacted by Congress)

Influenced similar environmental protection laws in Canada and Western Europe. U.N. Conference on Human Environment (Stockholm, 1970)

Encouraging: Mitigation of Acid Rain

1980, U.S. Congress passed an Acid Deposition Act. Initiated an 18-year assessment and research program under the direction of the

National Acidic Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP).

1989:US Congress amended Clean Air Act. Established Acid Rain Program, a cap and trade program designed to control

emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides.

Goals: reduction by 10 Mt/y of SO2 emissions from power plants.

Implemented in two phases: I) 1995: limited SO2 emissions from 110 largest power plants to a total of 8.7 Mt. II) 2000: extend to most power plants.

Cap and trade program successful:

➢ 1990s SO2 emissions decreased by 40%, acid rain levels dropped by 65% (Pacific Research Institute). Other (conventional) regulation in European Union → decrease SO2 emission by 70%

➢ In 2007, total SO2 emissions were 8.9 mt, achieving long term goal early (<2010)

Costs of compliance (2010, EPA estimates), $(1-2) B/a to businesses and consumers.

(Technical details see later)


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Effective cap & trade program in past: Example for attacking a larger problem (Climate Change)? US administration: no success with US Congress.

➢ →Success = substantial reduction of acidity of rivers and lakes in NY (and elsewhere)

Important Conclusion


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Man-made pollution effects on (local) atmosphere can be halted and reversed !

Example for solving larger (global) problems ? (“Ozone Hole,” Climate Change)

In Fact: Mending the Ozon Hole

The beneficial ozone layer lies between about 9.3 and 18.6 miles (15 - 30 kilometers) above Earth's surface. This blanket of ozone (O3) blocks most of the Sun’s harmful high-frequency UV radiation.

Ozone is created naturally when sunlight dissociates oxygen molecules (O2) in the stratosphere into 2 free oxygen atoms. A free O atom can then bond with an unbroken O2 molecule in the environment, making O3.

Ozone is unstable and is easily broken up by trace elements catalysts.

CFCs are dissociated by UV and form Cl2 (chlorine), which is an exceptional problem for ozone in the (dark) polar night regions. As a catalyst, chlorine then effectively destroys O3. Re-stabilization occurs slowly in Spring following Winter.

Montreal Protocol (1987) had the effect of world-wide much reduced use of CFCs.

The acronym CFC stands for chlorofluorocarbon. Chlorofluorocarbons, invented in the 1920s, are a type of organic compound that is made exclusively of chlorine, fluorine and carbon.


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ExaggerationNASA

Another Important Conclusion and 3 Questions


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Man-made pollution effects on global upper atmosphere can be halted and reversed !

Example for attacking an even larger (global) problem (Climate Change) ?

Awareness: What is “Climate Change,” “Global Warming” ?

Assessment & evaluation: What are (likely) causes?

Mitigation: If desirable, can it be halted/reversed ?

Recognizing (Earth’s) Global Climate Changes

1979: First World Climate Conference: Influence of pollution (combustion) on climate.

1987: Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, amendments.1988: UN creates scientific Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to study climate issues. Issued Assessment Reports (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007,..)

1997: Kyoto Protocol: Requires 37 industrialized nations by 2005 to reduce “greenhouse-gas” (GHG) emissions. Developed countries mostly responsible for current pollution should carry larger burdens. US signs but does not ratify.

1998-2001: US global-warming skeptics organize opposition, lobby against Kyoto Protocol.

2000-2006: Influential campaign by Vice President Al Gore (“An Inconvenient Truth”).

2001: US withdrawal from Kyoto Protocol (G.W. Bush).

2005: Kyoto Protocol goes in effect. Does not include US, Russia. China treated as developing nation.

2007: 4th major IPCC (500 authors) report confirms a) climate change occurs, and b) is mostly due to human activities (CO2 emission from fossil-fuel combustion).

2009: Non-governmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) publishes report acknowledging global warming but disputes human responsibility for it.

Obama administration’s carbon cap-and-trade bill (American Clean Energy and Security Act) is not adopted by US Congress.

2010: – Various reports by NASA and National Academy of Sciences confirm anthropogenic causes of global warming.

Various international climate meetings: Copenhagen/Denmark (2009), Cancún/Mexico (2010), Durban/South Africa (2011), Doha/ Qatar (2012)

IPCC assessment and special reports 2014,…, 2018


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http://ozone.unep.org/Ratification_status/montreal_protocol.shtml

http://www.ipcc.ch/

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml

http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0497116/

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf

Appeal to World Economic Forum Davos 2019

Greta Thunberg, Swedish school strike activist demands economists tackle runaway global warming.


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Global Policies Reduce GHG Emissions


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0

After: The Economist,

Sept. 20th 2014

Totally avoided emission: ~ 25% !

Estimated levelized emissions.

Montreal Protocol (1987) international

agreement to phase out

chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) used in air

conditioners, refrigerators, spray cans...

Future effects expected similar or better.

Not result of intentional policy

Avoided fossil fuel PPT

Avoided fossil fuel PPT

Average annual

emissions* avoided

➢

➢

➢

➢

➢

➢

➢

➢

“Normal” 49 Gt/y

Future (?) Policies to Curb GHG Emissions


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After: The Economist,

Sept. 20th 2014

Potential GHG Savings: US Light Duty Vehicles

Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards limit average GHG emissions from vehicles. Broader legislation will put price on economy-wide GHG emissions affecting economic viability of future vehicle evolutionary pathways. Report U.S. DRIVE (United States Driving Research and Innovation for Vehicle efficiency and Energy

sustainability) uses levelized (well-to-wheels) GHG emissions data. Explains relation between GHG pricing and economic viability of vehicle pathways.


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DRIVE Partnership Research (NAS) (ISBN 978-0-309-26831-8)

(g CO2 equ./mi)

g CO2 equ./mi

Path forward?

What’s Next, B(L)ack to the Future?


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Modern open pit industrial coal mining in Germany

President D. J. Trump (2017)

Campain promise:US coal mining, oil, gas prod,(# jobs?).

Grand Experiments Elsewhere

Experiments in Europe (Germany): 50% renewables (CO2 free) in 2050


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Germany: Reduce consumption, ramp up renewable sources

Wind turbines on Samso/DKNYT Jan 18/2015

http://energytransition.de/wp-content/themes/boell/pdf/en/German-Energy-Transition_en.pdf

Literature and Credits


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I. Barbour, H. Brooks, S. Lakoff, J Opie, Energy and American Values, National Humanities Center, Triangle U., Praeger Scientific, 1982

D. Yergin, The Quest, Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World, Penguin Press, New York, 2011

D. M. Martinez & B. W. Ebenhack, En. Policy 36,1430 (2008)

N. Klein, This Changes Everything, Capitalism vs. Climate, Simaon&Schuster, New York, 2014.

The Clean Air Act (CAA), 42 U.S.C. §7401 et seq. (1970). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clean_Air_Act_(United_States)

Monographs (MS, PhD) on administration energy policies, e.g.,

Kevin L. Murray, U.S. energy policy under the Reagan Administration, MS Thesis, San Jose State University, 1990.

Bodenatlas 2015, Bund f. Umwelt- u. Naturschutz Deutschland, Le Monde diplomatique,heinrich Boell Stiftung, Inst. Sust. Studies.

Following (on the next page) are sources and footnotes for the emission estimates from The Economist,

Sept. 20th, 2014 issue reproduced on 2 charts above.

References


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References for charts from:

The Economist, Sept. 20th 2014


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Documents

W. Udo Schröder, 2019