Von Neumann Was Not a Quantum Bayesian

Blake C. Stacey11Department of Physics, University of Massachusetts Boston,

100 Morrissey Blvd., Boston, MA 02125, United States

Wikipedia has claimed for over three years now that John von Neumann was the“first quantum Bayesian.” In context, this reads as stating that von Neumann inau-gurated QBism, the approach to quantum theory promoted by Fuchs, Mermin andSchack. This essay explores how such a claim is, historically speaking, unsupported.

I. INTRODUCTION

The Wikipedia article on Quantum Bayesianism has claimed since April 2012 that Johnvon Neumann was the “first quantum Bayesian” [79]. To a reader acquainted with quantumfoundations and the history of quantum theory, this is a strikingly odd assertion. This noteexplains why the claim is incorrect and explores how it came to be made.

A “Quantum Bayesian” is one who interprets the probabilities arising in quantum physicsaccording to some variety of the Bayesian view of probabilities. Given the profusion ofschools of thought under the Bayesian umbrella, it should not be surprising that a varietyof ways to be some kind of Bayesian about quantum theory has also arisen [3, 5, 12, 16, 21,39, 42, 55, 56, 77, 78, 81, 91, 109]. The most radical approach is QBism, which maintainsthat all quantum states are expressions of personalist Bayesian probabilities about potentialfuture experiences [5, 32–37, 59–63, 92, 98]. For this essay, I will take the writings of Fuchs,Mermin and Schack [32–37, 59–63] as the defining statements of what a QBist is and is not.Furthermore, their union and intersection are indicative of what a QBist might be, mightnot be and is not obligated to entertain.

QBism is the primary focus of the Wikipedia article on Quantum Bayesianism, and thetake-away impression is that John von Neumann was not just a partisan of the Bayesianlifestyle, but also the first QBist. This is an untenable claim.

In this essay, we will not be strongly concerned with which interpretation of quantummechanics is “correct,” or with what it might mean for an interpretation of quantum me-chanics to be “correct.” Our focus will instead be on who said what and when. However,to evaluate the “von Neumann was the first Quantum Bayesian” claim properly, we needto clarify what a “Quantum Bayesian” world view might be, and QBism, in many ways anextreme among such views, provides a convenient vantage point. Therefore, we will establishthe basic notions of QBism, and then in following sections we will turn to the writings ofvon Neumann.

II. QBISM

QBism is an interpretation of quantum mechanics which takes as fundamental the ideasof agent and experience. A “quantum measurement” is, in QBism, an act which an agentperforms on the external world. A quantum state is an agent’s encoding of her own personalexpectations for what she might experience as a result of carrying out an action. This holdstrue for all quantum states, pure or mixed; a state without an agent is a contradiction in

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terms. Furthermore, each experience is a personal event specific to the agent who evokesit. Cabello classifies QBism as a kind of “participatory realism,” similar to the thinking ofJohn Wheeler [13].

Different authors have emphasized different aspects of QBism. The discussions by Bar-num [5] and Mermin [59–63], and the briefer remarks by Schlosshauer, Claringbold andŻukowski [86, 112], place their focus on how QBism gives meaning to the current mathe-matical formalism of quantum theory. Fuchs and Schack have also addressed this aspect [34],while in addition pushing forward technical work which aims to reformulate quantum theoryand build it up anew from explicitly QBist postulates [35]. Due to the historical subjectmatter of this essay, the former will be more relevant here.1

Individual statements and arguments drawn from the writings of other scientists cansometimes fit neatly within the QBist programme. Examples come to mind in the works ofAaronson [1, pp. xii–xiii, 110], Bacon [2], Baez [3], Bell [62, 63], Einstein [37], Feynman [28,p. 6 -7], Nielsen [68], Peierls [63], Schrödinger [60, 62, 63] and others. This is not to claimthat any of these authors are QBist or proto-QBist (the latter term being also unpleasantlyteleological). Indeed, one can find self-identified non-QBists and critics of QBism who agreewith QBists on nontrivial points [10, 64]. Physicists and their opinions are sufficiently com-plicated that we cannot pigeonhole them based on isolated snippets of text. Placement andclassification require more systematic study than that, if they are to have any meaning. Withthis concern in mind, we turn to surveying the writings of von Neumann. First, we shallsee that von Neumann’s interpretation of probability, though it displayed varying nuancesover time, never aligned with that advocated by Fuchs, Mermin and Schack. Then, we willstudy the evidence indicating that von Neumann made a category distinction between differ-ent kinds of quantum states that QBists (and some other varieties of Quantum Bayesians)do not. Having established that “Quantum Bayesian” is not a good description for vonNeumann’s thought, we will turn to the argument that underlies the claim in Wikipedia.Digging into the material that ostensibly supports that claim will reveal that support to berather insubstantial.

III. VON NEUMANN ON PROBABILITY

A. Frequentism (1932)

To begin with, we examine von Neumann’s Mathematical Foundations of Quantum Me-chanics, hereinafter MFQM. This book is indicative of von Neumann’s thinking in 1932, the

1 This is not to say that the more technical side of QBism is without historical and philosophical interest.The roots of the mathematics involved go back to Schwinger [87] and Weyl [110, §IV.D.14], indeedto the very transition from the “old quantum theory” to the new [36, pp. 2055–56, 2257–58, 2280].And, in the SIC representation of quantum states and channels, the Born rule—usually written likep(i) = tr(ρEi)—and unitary evolution—typically written like ρ(t) = Utρ(0)U†t —take the same form.Both are simple affine deformations of the Law of Total Probability [35]. This clarifies that both aresynchronic relations between probability ascriptions [34]. Alice carries a probability distribution for aninformationally complete measurement, which she uses to summarize her expectations. Alice can calculateother probability distributions from it, synchronically, including distributions for other informationallycomplete measurements which she might carry out in the distant future.

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time of the publication of the original German edition. Quoting from MFQM, page 298:

However, the investigation of the physical quantities related to a single objectS is not the only thing which can be done – especially if doubts exist relativeto the simultaneous measurability of several quantities. In such cases it is alsopossible to observe great statistical ensembles which consist of many systemsS1, . . . , SN (i.e., N models of S, N large).156

Note 156 reads as follows:

Such ensembles, called collectives, are in general necessary for establishingprobability theory as the theory of frequencies. They were introduced by R. v.Mises, who discovered their meaning for probability theory, and who built upa complete theory on this foundation (cf., for example, his book, “Wahrschein-lichkeit, Statistik and ihre Wahrenheit,” Berlin, 1928).

[Solche Gesamtheiten, Kollektive gennant, sind überhaupt notwendig umdie Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung als Lehre von den Häufigkeiten begründen zukönnen. Sie wurden von R. v. Mises eingeführt, der ihre Bedeutung für dieWahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung erkannte, und einen entsprechenden Aufbau der-selben durchführte (vgl. z. B. sein Buch Wahrscheinlichkeit, Statistik und ihreWahrheit, Berlin 1928).]

Notice the discrepancy in the titles given for von Mises’ book; apparently, the translatormade an error here. In fact, von Neumann also errs in this passage, as the “ihre” is aninterpolation. Nevertheless, the meaning of the passage is clear: in 1932, von Neumanninterpreted probability in a frequentist manner.

Evidence of this occurs throughout MFQM, in fact. For example, “expectation value”is defined as “the arithmetic mean of all results of measurement in a sufficiently large sta-tistical ensemble” (p. 308). Lüders, who improved upon von Neumann’s theory of mea-surement [58], also thought in terms of “an ensemble of identical and independent systems”[“einer Gesamtheit gleichartiger und unabhängiger Systeme”]. This is one example of laterresearchers not finding a Bayesian message in von Neumann.

B. Probability as Extended Logic (c. 1937)

To see how von Neumann’s thinking on the foundations of probability changed, we turnnext to an unfinished manuscript from about 1937, which is included in his CollectedWorks [107]. Von Neumann imagines a collection of a large number of “specimens” of aphysical system S1 and considers interpreting the transition probability P (a, b) = θ in termsof a relative frequency:

[I]f we measure on each S∗1 , . . . , S∗N first a, and then in immediate succession b,and if then the number of those among S∗1 , . . . , S∗N where a is found to be trueis M , and the number of those where a, b are both found to be true is M ′, then:

(H) P (a, b) = θ means that M ′/M → θ for N →∞.This view, the so called “frequency theory of probability” has been very bril-

liantly upheld and expounded by R. V. Mises. This view, however, is not accept-able to us, at least not in the present “logical” context. We do not think that (H)really expresses a convergence-statement in the strict mathematical sense of the

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word—at least not without extending the physical terminology and ideology toinfinite systems (namely, to the entirety of an infinite sequence S∗1 , S∗2 , . . .)—andwe are not prepared to carry out such an extension at this stage. The approx-imative forms of (H), on the other hand, are mere probability-statements, e.g.“Bernoulli’s law of great numbers” [. . .] And such probability-statements areagain of the same nature as the relation P (a, b) = θ, which they should inter-pret.

Von Neumann then makes the following declaration:

We prefer, therefore, to disclaim any intention to interpret the relationsP (a, b) = θ (0 < θ < 1) in terms of strict logics. In other words, we admit:

Probability logics cannot be reduced to strict logics, but constitute an essen-tially wider system than the latter, and statements of the form P (a, b) = θ(0 < θ < 1) are perfectly new and sui generis aspects of physical reality.

So probability logics appear as an essential extension of strict logics. Thisview, the so-called “logical theory of probability” is the foundation of J. N. [sic]Keynes’s work on the subject.

In short, the later von Neumann interprets quantum probabilities as logical probabilities.Moreover, he explicitly identifies this view with that worked out by Keynes.

At this point, it is a good idea to compare Keynes’ “logical probability” to the thinking ofF. P. Ramsey, whose interpretation is closer to that invoked in QBism [36, pp. ix, 1225–29,1374]. Fortunately, we have a statement by Keynes himself on this subject. In October1931—after Ramsey’s death at the age of twenty-six—Keynes wrote the following [52].

Formal logic is concerned with nothing but the rules of consistent thought.But in addition to this we have certain “useful mental habits” for handling thematerial with which we are supplied by our perceptions and by our memory andperhaps in other ways, and so arriving at or towards truth; and the analysisof such habits is also a sort of logic. The application of these ideas to thelogic of probability is very fruitful. Ramsey argues, as against the view whichI had put forward, that probability is concerned not with objective relationsbetween propositions but (in some sense) with degrees of belief, and he succeedsin showing that the calculus of probabilities simply amounts to a set of rules forensuring that the system of degrees of belief which we hold shall be a consistentsystem. Thus the calculus of probabilities belongs to formal logic. But the basisof our degrees of belief—or the a priori, as they used to be called—is part of ourhuman outfit, perhaps given us merely by natural selection, analogous to ourperceptions and our memories rather than to formal logic.

And, having made this comparison, Keynes goes on to say,

So far I yield to Ramsey—I think he is right. But in attempting to distinguish“rational” degrees of belief from belief in general he was not yet, I think, quitesuccessful. It is not getting to the bottom of the principle of induction merely tosay that it is a useful mental habit. Yet in attempting to distinguish a “human”logic from formal logic on the one hand and descriptive psychology on the other,Ramsey may have been pointing the way to the next field of study when formallogic has been put into good order and its highly limited scope properly defined.

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C. Debating Bohr in Warsaw (1938)

In 1938, von Neumann attended a conference in Warsaw on “New Theories in Physics.”The meeting, which ran from 30 May to 3 June, was attended by Bohr, Brillouin, de Broglie,C. G. Darwin, Eddington, Gamow, Kramers, Langevin, Wigner and others. Bohr presenteda report on “The Causality Problem in Atomic Physics,” to which von Neumann replied inthe discussion afterward [7]. Von Neumann’s remarks begin by interpreting probabilities interms of ensembles:

If we wish to analyse the meaning of the statistical statements of quantummechanics, we must necessarily deal with « ensembles » of a great number ofidentical systems, and not with individual systems.

He segues, however, into a discussion of quantum logic, arguing that the central point is thefailure of the distributive law. This leads to the following:

A complete derivation of quantum mechanics is only possible if the proposi-tional calculus of logics is so extended, as to include probabilities, in harmonywith the ideas of J. M. Keynes. In the quantum mechanical terminology : thenotion of a « transition probability » from a to b, to be denoted by P (a, b) mustbe introduced. (P (a, b) is the probability of b, if a is known to be true. P (a, b)can be used to define a 5 b and −a : P (a, b) = 1 means a 5 b, P (a, b) = 0means a 5 −b. But P (a, b) = φ, with a φ > 0, < 1 is a new « sui generis »statement, only understandable in terms of probabilities.)

It is interesting that von Neumann does not attempt to use Keynesian logical-probabilitytheory to define single-shot probabilities. Instead, he still treats statistical statements ashaving meaning only for ensembles.

D. Game Theory (1944)

Von Neumann coauthored the textbook Theory of Games and Economic Behavior withOskar Morgenstern. The book, first published in 1944, is frequentist in orientation, thoughthe authors express this as a matter of convenience rather than necessity. Von Neumann andMorgenstern call the “interpretation of probability as frequency in long runs” a “perfectlywell founded” notion, but they leave the door open to alternative conceptions of probabil-ity [105]. Morgenstern later explained [65],

We were, of course, aware of the difficulty with the logical foundations of proba-bility theory. We decided we would base our arguments on the classical frequencydefinition of probability, but we included a footnote saying that one could ax-iomatize utility and probability together and introduce a subjective notion ofprobability. This was done later by others.

For the work in question, see Pfanzagl [74–76].

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E. Generating Random Numbers (1951)

One of von Neumann’s memorable remarks has gained a certain infamy: “Any one whoconsiders arithmetical methods of producing random digits is, of course, in a state of sin.”This quotation occurs in an item in a 1951 volume of conference proceedings, where vonNeumann also discusses physical phenomena which can be used to generate random numer-ical sequences [106]. He proposes “nuclear accidents” as the ideal source, which in the eraafter Chernobyl and Fukushima comes across as slightly ominous. However, in context it isplain enough that the “accidents” in question are events like individual clicks from a Geigercounter.

There are nuclear accidents, for example, which are the ideal of randomness, andup to a certain accuracy you can count them. One difficulty is that one is neverquite sure what is the probability of occurrence of the nuclear accident. Thisdifficulty has been overcome by taking larger counts than one [does] in testingfor either even or odd. To cite a human example, for simplicity, in tossing a coinit is probably easier to make two consecutive tosses independent than to tossheads with probability exactly one-half. If independence of probability tossesis assumed, we can reconstruct a 50–50 chance out of even a badly biased coinby tossing twice. If we get heads-heads or tails-tails, we reject the tosses andtry again. If we get heads-tails (or tails-heads), we accept the result as heads(or tails). The resulting process is rigorously unbiased, although the amendedprocess is at most 25 percent as efficient as ordinary coin-tossing.

The language here is prima facie frequentist or propensity-inclined, treating probabilitiesas unknown quantities to be measured (“one is never quite sure what is the probability ofoccurrence of the nuclear accident”). A Bayesian can give meaning to statements about“unknown probabilities”—this is the territory of the de Finetti theorem [17]—but von Neu-mann’s phrasing does not sound like a stringent Bayesian’s first choice of words.

In summary, von Neumann’s interpretation of probability moved from a kollectiv-basedstrict frequentism to a Keynesian view. Nowhere do we find an outright endorsement ofpersonalist Bayesianism; the closest approach is much later than MFQM, is not in thecontext of quantum theory, and is itself mixed in with a claim that thinking of probabilityas long-run frequency is good enough for practical purposes.

IV. PURE AND MIXED STATES

Von Neumann’s philosophy of probability, and the way his thinking changed over time, hasbeen discussed by others—for example, by Bub [11], Rédei [82], Stairs [94] and Valente [99].Less remarked-upon, but also important to this comment, are von Neumann’s statementsconcerning the distinction between pure and mixed quantum states.

Returning to MFQM, on page 295 we find the following:

In the state φ the quantity R has the expectation value ρ = (Rφ, φ) andhas as its dispersion �2 the expectation value of the quantity (R − ρ)2, i.e.,((R − ρ · 1)2φ, φ) = ||Rφ||2 − (Rφ, φ)2 (cf. Note 130; all these are calculatedwith the aid of Ē·!) which is in general > 0 (and = 0 only for Rφ = ρ · φ,cf. III.3.) – therefore there exists a statistical distribution of R, even though

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φ is one individual state – as we have repeatedly noted.) But the statisticalcharacter may become even more prominent, if we do not even know what state isactually present – for example, when several states φ1, φ2, . . . with the respectiveprobabilities w1, w2, . . . (w1 ≥ 0, w2 ≥ 0,. . ., w1 + w2 + · · · = 1) constitute thedescription. Then the expectation value of the quantity R, in the sense of thegenerally valid rules of the calculus of probabilities is ρ′ = ∑nwn · (Rφn, φn).

The language here indicates that for von Neumann, a pure state is something an individualsystem has, and a more general density matrix stands for an ensemble in which differentpure states are physically present with different frequencies.

Von Neumann writes freely of properties possessed by quantum systems (p. 338):

Instead of saying that several results of measurement (on S) are known, we canalso say that S was examined in relation to a certain property E and its presencewas ascertained. [. . .] The information about S therefore always amounts to thepresence of a certain property E which is formally characterized by stating theprojection E.

And, shortly thereafter, bluntly:

That is, if E is present, the state is φ.

An exhaustive measurement fixes the value of a physical property, and the presence ofa physical property can mandate the correctness of a choice of quantum state. Unsharpmeasurements, in von Neumann’s development, “are incomplete and do not succeed in de-termining a unique state” (p. 340). Again, we see the language making a category distinctionbetween quantities which are “states” and more general entities which are not. Later, vonNeumann writes that a density operator which is a “mixture of several states” is “not astate” itself (p. 350). This distinction is maintained throughout his discussion of what wenow call the von Neumann entropy.

This idea, that pure and mixed states are qualitatively different kinds of entity, wentunquestioned by Bohm [8], but was soon challenged by Jaynes [48]. One can conceiveof uncertainty intrinsic to a pure state and uncertainty about which pure state might bepresent. However, as Jaynes writes,

If the former probabilities are interpreted in the objective sense, while the latterare clearly subjective, we have a very puzzling situation. Many different arrays,representing different combinations of subjective and objective aspects, all leadto the same density matrix, and thus to the same predictions.

This argument was later made by Ochs [70], and by Caves, Fuchs and Schack [17]. Thelatter authors write, “a mixed state has infinitely many ensemble decompositions into purestates”—even into different numbers of pure states—“so the distinction between subjectiveand objective becomes hopelessly blurred.”2

2 The mathematical point of the multiplicity of ensemble decompositions was made most famously byHughston, Jozsa and Wootters [46] in 1993. It was also demonstrated almost sixty years earlier bySchrödinger [85], who disclaimed priority for the result, suggesting that some form of the idea was folkknowledge or shared conversationally at the time. The fact that a mixed state can be decomposed inmultiple ways is one of the phenomena reproduced in the “epistricted” models of Spekkens et al. [89, 90].

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Arguably, it would be more consistent for a strict Kollectivist to treat all quantum states,pure and mixed, in ensemble terms, where pure states correspond to the most purifiedpossible ensembles. However, von Neumann’s statements about the presence of physicalproperties determining unique states clash with this position.

V. MEASUREMENT AND SUBJECTIVITY

As we noted in Section II, it is not so difficult to find in physicists’ writings statementswhich, taken in isolation, are compatible with QBism. The more important question iswhether a verbal corpus yields up enough of these cherries to fill a bowl.

The last chapter of MFQM concerns “The Measuring Process.” Here, we find mentionsof “subjective perception” and “the intellectual inner life of the individual” (p. 418). Surelythis is where we should look for evidence of von Neumann’s Quantum-Bayesian sympathies.

He writes (p. 420),

Indeed experience only makes statements of this type: an observer has made acertain (subjective) observation; and never any like this: a physical quantity hasa certain value.

But the idea that we ultimately rely on sense impressions to adjudicate between scientificmodels is hardly original to quantum mechanics, or to Bayesian interpretations thereof. Aform of the idea is attributed to Democritus [22], and Lucretius discussed it in verse [57].Schrödinger commented, “Quantum mechanics forbids statements about what really exists—statements about the object. Its statements deal only with the object-subject relation.”However, he continued, “this holds, after all, for any description of nature”; the crucial pointis that in quantum physics, it “holds in a much more radical and far reaching sense” [33].

In classical mechanics, the mass of an object is a basic property which that object haswhether or not a physicist is nearby to be interested in it. Let us imagine a physicistworking in the days before quantum theory. He drops a rock on his foot and sees red—asubjective perception. He then uses this perception, which is part of his “inner life,” to ruleout the hypothesis that the rock is of negligible mass. The variable m in his equations refersto an intrinsic property of the rock, not to any of his sensations, even though his sensoryperceptions are what he uses to assign a value (or a spread of reasonable values) to thevariable m. For the Newtonian, the rock has a mass, although the Newtonian might admitwhen pressed that any particular value used in a calculation is chosen because it adequatelysummarizes past experiences and helps to predict future ones.

The critical question is whether von Neumann reads the mathematical entities appearingin the quantum formalism as physical quantities akin to Newtonian masses, about whichwe can use subjective perceptions to make estimations, or if he reads those mathematicalentities as standing for perceptions themselves. The blanket statement quoted above that“experience only makes statements of this type” certainly suggests that he views the pointabout “(subjective) observation” to be applicable to classical physics. The evidence wesaw in the previous section indicates that von Neumann treats quantum states as physicalproperties held by objects themselves, that is, as more analogous to the mass of a Newtonianrock than to experiences in the flow of “intellectual inner life.”

At one point in the Warsaw proceedings, von Neumann does approach a statement whichmight not sound completely out of place coming from a QBist. In a later discussion thanthe exchange we examined above, the Warsaw proceedings record the following [7, p. 44].

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Professor von Neumann thought that there must always be an observersomewhere in a system : it was therefore necessary to establish a limit betweenthe observed and the observer. But it was by no means necessary that this limitshould coincide with the geometrical limits of the physical body of the individualwho observes. We could quite well « contract » the observer or « expand »him : we could include all that passed within the eye of the observer in the« observed » part of the system — which is described in a quantum manner.Then the « observer » would begin behind the retina. Or we could include partof the apparatus which we used in the physical observation — a microscope forinstance — in the « observer ». The principle of « psycho-physical parallelism »expresses this exactly : that this limit may be displaced, in principle at least, asmuch as we wish inside the physical body of the individual who observes. Thereis thus no part of the system which is essentially the observer, but in order toformulate quantum theory, an observer must always be placed somewhere.

Terms like “observer” and “measurement” imply an essential passivity, Fuchs and Schackhave argued [35]; such words suggest a casual, uninvolved reading-off, rather than a partici-patory act. But if we replace “observer” with “agent” in von Neumann’s concluding line, wewould have the statement, “In order to formulate quantum theory, an agent must always beplaced somewhere”; this claim, that agent is a fundamental concept which quantum theoryis built upon, would fit within QBism.

To a QBist, this is the killing flaw in von Neumann’s interpretation of quantum mechanics.On the one hand, von Neumann affirms that one cannot formulate the theory without anobserver, but on the other, quantum states are physical properties of systems outside theobserver, and probabilities are frequencies in kollectivs or Keynesian logical valuations—conceptions of probability which try to delete the agent at all cost.3

In broad overview, von Neumann’s approach to quantum measurement begins with aphysical system, which then interacts with some kind of measuring apparatus, which isthen studied by an observer. The system-apparatus and apparatus-observer interactions aretreated as physically distinct kinds of time evolution. Von Neumann calls the differencebetween these processes “very fundamental” (§VI.1, p. 418).

If one takes quantum states to be intellectual tools held by an individual agent, then theprocedure of inserting an intermediate apparatus adds nothing to the basic philosophicalunderstanding of what quantum theory is about. It could well be a beneficial mathematicalexercise, part of working out what to do when making use of multipartite systems. (Thereare good practical reasons to understand how the quantum formalism applies to a system oneof whose parts is a probe or an ancilla for the other, or is a communication channel whosefunction is limited in some way.) Regardless, if quantum states are personalist Bayesianquantities, then introducing probes and ancillas brings nothing intrinsically new. And if vonNeumann had seen quantum states in anything like the QBist fashion, it is difficult to finda rationale for why MFQM ’s entire chapter on “the measuring process” assumes the shape

3 Arguably, von Neumann is not always consistent in his treatment of “psycho-physical parallelism.” Acareful reading of MFQM §VI.3 suggests that it elides the “limit between the observed and the observer”which he deems essential, both in MFQM (§VI.1, p. 420) and at the Warsaw conference. But teasing outthe meaning of “psycho-physical parallelism” is no simple task [44], and for the purposes of this essay,pursuing it in greater depth is not essential.

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it does.Fuchs has written, “von Neumann’s setting the issue of measurement in these terms was

the great original sin of the quantum foundational debate” [36, p. 2035].

VI. MEASUREMENT REDUX: THE “QUANTUM BAYES RULE”

Wikipedia attributes the statement “The first quantum Bayesian was von Neumann” toR. F. Streater [95]. As mentioned earlier, the effect of saying this in an article which primarilyconcerns QBism is to claim that von Neumann was himself either QBist or something muchlike it. Looking up this source, we find that what Streater calls “Quantum Bayesianism”could indeed reasonably include QBism. For example, he states that Bayesians “attribute allthe entropy in a state to the lack of information in the observer” (p. 71). And in discussingdensity matrices, he writes, “the Bayesian’s ρ is entirely about his knowledge” (p. 72). So,the meaning of the statement created by placing it within the Wikipedia article is not toomuch of a stretch.

Streater bases his claim that von Neumann was the “first quantum Bayesian” on MFQM,never addressing the plainly frequentist orientation of that book. Nor does Streater refer tothe passages about “subjective perception” and “experience.”

The root of the confusion appears to be that, towards the end of MFQM, von Neumannderives a formula which turns out in retrospect to be a specialized case of a quantum analogueof the Bayes conditioning rule. Von Neumann motivates his argument with the following(p. 337):

If anterior measurements do not suffice to determine the present stateuniquely, then we may still be able to infer from those measurements, under cer-tain circumstances, with what probabilities particular states are present. (Thisholds in causal theories, for example, in classical mechanics, as well as in quan-tum mechanics.) The proper problem is then this: Given certain results ofmeasurements, find a mixture whose statistics are the same as those which weshall expect for a system S of which we know only that these measurements werecarried out on it and that they had the results mentioned.

Here, von Neumann treats quantum states as analogous to the physical states of classicalmechanics, i.e., to points in phase space. In classical mechanics, if a system could be at oneof multiple points in its phase space, we write a Liouville probability density over that space;we can infer that for von Neumann, it is mixtures which are analogous to Liouville densities.This is in sharp contrast with QBist and much other Quantum-Bayesian thinking, in whichall quantum states, however pure, are expressions of an agent’s probability assignments.

As always in MFQM, a system has a state, even if we don’t know what that state is.And, as always in MFQM, statistics means ensembles of identically prepared systems:

If, for many systems S′1, . . . ,S′M (replicas of S), these measurements give theresults mentioned, then this ensemble [S′1, . . . ,S′M ] coincides in all its statisticalproperties with the mixture that corresponds to the results of the measurements.

Changes in statistical properties mean the creation of new ensembles with different popula-tion demographics:

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That the results of the measurements are the same for all S′1, . . . ,S′M can beattributed, by M., to the fact that originally a large ensemble [S1, . . . ,SN ] wasgiven in which the measurements were carried out, and then those elements forwhich the desired results occurred were collected into a new ensemble. This isthen [S′1, . . . ,S′M ].

Here, M. refers to the measurement postulate, “If the physical quantity R is measured twicein succession in a system S, then we get the same value each time” (p. 335).

So, we have something like the updating of probabilities by the Bayes rule. However,von Neumann phrases the scenario in completely Kollectivist language. Merely invokingBayes’ theorem does not make one a Bayesian. For example, von Mises makes use of Bayes’theorem, calling it “a proposition applying to an infinite number of experiments,” or inother words, to a kollectiv [103, p. 123]. One could be wholly agnostic about the inter-pretation of probability, setting up the theory from measure-theoretic or abstract-algebraicaxioms [96]; multiplication and division of probabilities would then be legitimate operationshaving meaning only with respect to those axioms.

It is in this context that von Neumann mentions “a priori” and “a posteriori” proba-bilities. These terms could be glossed in a Bayesian way, but only at the cost of ignoringeverything else MFQM says about the interpretation of probability, including the discussionof “ensembles” in the same paragraph. And even if one were to do so, the way in which vonNeumann allows pre-existing physical properties to determine quantum states would implya view in which mixed states are Bayesian probability distributions over pure states. (Andthough it could potentially be called “quantum Bayesian,” it is definitely not QBist.) Thisis a difficult position to maintain, per the Jaynesian argument given above. Furthermore,given the professed Kollectivism of MFQM, we should recall what von Mises said aboutthese terms [103, p. 46]:

It is useful to introduce distinct names for the two probabilities of the sameattribute, the given probability in the initial collective and the calculated onein the new collective formed by partition. The current expressions for thesetwo probabilities are not very satisfactory, although I cannot deny that they areimpressive enough. The usual way is to call the probability in the initial collectivethe a priori, and that in the derived collective the a posteriori probability.

This usage exactly parallels von Neumann’s. To continue:

The fact that these expressions suggest a connexion with a well-known philo-sophical terminology is their first deficiency in my eyes. Another one is thatthese same expressions, a priori and a posteriori, are used in the classical theoryof probability in a different sense as well, namely, to distinguish between prob-abilities derived from empirical data and those assumed on the basis of somehypothesis; such a distinction is not pertinent in our theory. I prefer, there-fore, to give to the two probabilities less pretentious names, which have lessfar-reaching and general associations. I will speak of initial probability and finalprobability, meaning by the first term the probability in the original collective,and by the second one, the probability (of the same attribute) in the collectivederived by partition.

Von Neumann uses the more common terminology, but the meaning which MFQM vests inthe words is, by all evidence, the same as that which von Mises does. The result is not an

12

argument that probabilities should be seen as quantified fervencies of belief, but rather thata certain problem involving ensemble frequencies admits nonunique solutions.

Von Neumann derives his basic relation betwen initial and final ensembles by consideringthe following procedure (p. 340). We measure some binary physical property E on eachelement of the initial ensemble, which is described by the statistical operator U0. Theelements for which this measurement yields the outcome 1 (instead of 0) are collected toform a new ensemble, whose statistical operator is U . The two ensembles are related by

U =∑n

(U0φn, φn)P[φn]. (1)

Here, P[φn] is the projector onto the state φn, and the set {φ1, φ2, . . . , φn} is an orthonormalbasis which spans the subspace in which measuring E yields the value 1.

Lüders criticized von Neumann’s result and proposed a correction [58]. A more modernway to represent state-change upon measurement is to write the Lüders rule using themathematics of effects and operations. A measurement is a positive operator valued measure(POVM) which furnishes a resolution of the identity:∑

k

Ek = 1, (2)

and each of the {Ek} can be written

Ek =∑l

A†klAkl. (3)

Here, the index k labels the possible outcomes of the measurement. If the initial densityoperator is U0, then upon obtaining the outcome k, we update the density operator to

U =∑lAklU0A

†kl

tr(EkU0). (4)

For analyses of how this update rule is analogous to, or a variant of, Bayesian conditioning,see Schack, Brun and Caves [84]; and also Fuchs [29]. Illustrative examples are developedin Fuchs and Schack [30].

Streater bases his criticism of von Neumann on that found in the textbook of Krylov [53],writing, “Krylov did not believe that all the characteristics of the state reflect only the lackof knowledge of the observer, but that there was a physical state, ρ0 out there to be found.”But this is exactly what von Neumann stated: recall that for him, a “mixture of severalstates” is “not a state” itself (MFQM, p. 350).

Krylov’s primary complaint with von Neumann (pp. 184–85) is the multiplicity of validdecompositions of mixed-state density operators.

Firstly, in using the statistical operator, we assume the selection of a certainorthogonal system of coordinates in the subspace delimited by an inexhaustivelycomplete experiment and we also assume a certain choice of weights wi. [. . .]A change in the orthogonal system means, generally speaking, a transition toanother physical state described by the statistical operator, to what is said to beanother statistical aggregate. (“A state” is understood here in a more generalsense than a state exhaustively completely determined, using a Ψ-function.) [. . .]

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Therefore, the selection of a certain orthogonal system of functions and the fixingof certain weights wi, which the von Neumann operator presupposes, amountsto the introduction of some physically fictitious properties of the reality beingdescribed.

That is, Krylov finds the conjunction of the following two statements unacceptable:

• A pure quantum state is a physical property of a system.

• The quantum formalism implies that a mixed-state statistical operator has multipledecompositions into linear combinations of pure states.

Krylov insists upon the former and therefore finds the latter unsatisfactory. As we discussedearlier, QBists (and some other varieties of quantum Bayesians) agree that these two state-ments clash with each other, but discard the first instead. Von Neumann holds onto both(MFQM, §IV.3).

VII. DISCUSSION

We have seen that “Quantum Bayesian” is not at all a good description of von Neumann.Along the way, we have encountered some of the practical issues that make classifyingscientists a difficult problem. It is worth considering these issues more generally. Havingdone so, we will conclude with some contemplations about the platform that made the claim“the first Quantum Bayesian was von Neumann” visible enough to be noticed in the firstplace.

A good classification summarizes, as succinctly as possible, the known statements andactions of an individual, and should have predictive power for statements yet unmade orundiscovered. Furthermore, the descriptive terms in commonest circulation should providethe most useful and meaningful understanding of relevant distinctions that painting with abroad brush can convey [9]. It is, to say the least, debatable that the jargon we have today onthe philosophical side of quantum theory fares at all well in this regard. Peres quips, “Thereseems to be at least as many Copenhagen interpretations as people who use that term,perhaps even more” [72]. For Żukowski, Copenhagen is “different for every apostle” [112].Indeed, a good case can be made that the idea of a unified “Copenhagen interpretation” wasa myth of the 1950s, which now elides in our perception the differences among views heldby physicists thirty years earlier [14, 15, 45]. Similarly, Kent tabulates at least twenty-onevarieties of Everettian interpretation [49]. These can differ in underacknowledged ways fromEverett’s original [50], and many are “generally incompatible” with one another [51].

The terms we employ are signifiers that we use to determine what we bother to read.They establish the distinctions which we allow to exist between the players in the historieswe retell. Then we pose those players according to our sentiments for the person and forthe philosophy.4

4 I myself have heard Feynman claimed as a Copenhagener, a Gell-Mannian, an Everettic and an enthusiastfor nonlocal hidden variables. The implication is that the correct interpretation of the quantum willbe decided, not even by opinion poll [37, 67], but by who occupies the most shelf space in the Caltechbookstore.

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The story of von Neumann exemplifies other challenges as well. We scientists changeour views over time. We leave fragmentary records of our thoughts, not atypically muddledby the compromises of coauthorship and journal publication. (The rise of an electronicpreprint culture has, among other things, provided a way to track what squeezing our worksinto journals can do to them; for an example, see [26].) And because our attitudes canbe moving targets, combining a physicist’s statement from year N with another statementthey made in year N + 20 to deduce what they “must logically have believed” is an exercisefraught with a scholarly kind of peril.

The scholarly literature is quite capable of spreading urban legends of its own [83]. Whathappens when we bring Wikipedia into the mix?

The Wikipedia project bills itself as “the free encyclopedia that anyone can edit”; evenif we gloss “anyone” as “anyone with an Internet connection,” this is only true to a firstapproximation. Individual users, or the machines they edit from, can be blocked from editingfor various lengths of time for offenses like persistent hate speech [25]. Also, individualpages can be protected from editing to different extents. Wikipedia has its own policies andcommunity institutions [71], often referred to by acronyms (NPOV, NOR, FAC, FARC andso forth). These, in addition to sheer size and visibility, distinguish Wikipedia from otherapplications of the wiki concept, such as the nLab [69]. For example, Wikipedia has a “NoOriginal Research” policy [111], but the nLab has as one of its primary goals the facilitationof original mathematical work.

On Wikipedia, the “right to figure forever in the history of the subject like a fly inamber” [47] can be supported even by a mention in nothing more substantial than thepopular press, like by New Scientist magazine, despite the well-known failure modes of thatindustry [36, p. 2221].

Thanks to the No Original Research policy mentioned earlier, correcting misconceptionspropagated by popular-science magazines and the like cannot begin with Wikipedia itself.The NOR policy makes sense for what Wikipedia is and what it tries to be: an encyclopediais a tertiary source, rather than a primary or secondary one. Moreover, Wikipedia lacksthe infrastructure to evaluate original scholarship, and identifying who wrote what in itsarticles is an arduous task, making it a poor place to advance new claims in a forthrightway. Academic life depends on receiving credit for one’s own work, and the way Wikipediaarticles are made flattens all contributions together, obscuring authorship. This essay is anattempt to do in a different venue what cannot feasibly be done within Wikipedia alone: setthe record straight.

I thank John DeBrota and Chris Fuchs for discussions during writing and editing.

Appendix A: Things QBism Is Not

Taking the recent writings of Fuchs, Mermin and Schack as establishing what QBism is,we can identify some things which QBism is not.

• A hidden-variable model. Quantum states in QBism are probability distributionsover potential experiences, not over values of putative hidden variables or agent-independent “ontic states.” QBism is more compatible with the research pro-gramme which uses hidden-variable models to reconstruct portions of quantum the-ory [6, 19, 20, 27, 89, 90, 100]. In these constructions, one posits a classical theory

15

with discrete or continuous degrees of freedom, and then one imposes a restriction onwhat can be known about those degrees of freedom at any one time. The resulting sta-tistical theory can qualitatively reproduce features of quantum mechanics (no-cloningand no-broadcasting theorems, teleportation and so forth); in some cases, it exactlyreproduces a subtheory of quantum mechanics, including a subset of the states and op-erations available in the full theory. The phenomena not reproduced, such as the hopeof computational speedup, are taken as indications of what is strongly nonclassicalabout quantum physics. The goal is to follow these hints to an interpretation of quan-tum mechanics as a statistical theory about something other than pedestrian hiddenvariables. A QBist is not philosophically obligated to find this research programmeappealing, but it is much more aligned with QBism than attempts to reproduce all ofquantum theory using hidden variables could be.

• Solipsism. According to QBism, quantum theory concerns the interface between anagent who uses quantum theory and the external world. Without the external world,there would be no interface, no subject matter for quantum theory and, indeed, noscience [35, 63]. Notwithstanding this, over the years QBism has been accused ofsolipsism; for examples and responses, see the list on pages xlv–xlvi of [36].5

• “The Copenhagen Interpretation.” It is difficult to define what, historically speaking, a“Copenhagen Interpretation” should be. For the moment, it suffices to take a specificreference which might be designated as Copenhagenish, the quantum physics volumeof Landau and Lifshitz [54]. The position of Landau and Lifshitz differs from QBismin ways which Fuchs, Mermin and Schack have tabulated [33, 62, 63]. In particular,the notions of “classical object” and “classical ‘apparatus’ ” are central to Landauand Lifshitz’s interpretation, but not to QBism. We should also note that Bohr andHeisenberg disagreed on the nature of the quantum/classical “cut” [15], and QBismdisagrees with both of them.

The ideas just itemized are incompatible with QBism: one who holds them is ipso factonot a QBist. We can also identify some things which QBism does not mandate. For example,a QBist does not have to expect that human beings, when tested in psychology laboratories,must follow a Bayesian decision-making scheme. Fuchs, Mermin and Schack all use a Dutchbook argument which deduces the rules of probability from a normative requirement, andhumans are very good at falling short of normative requirements.6

On a more technical note, Fuchs and Schack demonstrate that we can view the Born ruleas an empirical addition to the bare structure of probability theory [35]. The Born rule doesnot derive probabilities from some more fundamental kind of mathematical object; instead,it relates one probability distribution to another, tying together the probability assignmentswhich an agent can consistly ascribe to different experiments.

What if one began with a different bare structure, other than probability theory as modernpersonalist Bayesians know it? Following the speculations of Greenberger and Gill [36, pp.

5 A QBist could justifiably ask, “If there is no world outside of my head, where do all the papers on Bohmianmechanics keep coming from?”

6 In addition, QBism does not require that the process of science as a whole be understood as clockworkupdating in accord with Bayes’ theorem [36, pp. 193, 500, 799, 1020, 1228, 1731]. The QBist investigationsof when probabilistic coherence arguments are or are not in force [34, 35] militate against such a view.

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567, 1265], we might imagine intelligent life evolving on Jupiter; when the Jovians turnto mathematics, what constructions do they find intuitive and compelling? Perhaps theyare filamentous beings, and knot theory is to them as counting is to us. When a Jovianquantifies its beliefs and expectations, it encodes them as a collection of knots. Instead ofa Dutch-book argument imposing conditions on sets of real numbers, Jovian coherence isa normative standard about the combinations of knots that a good Jovian should strive tomaintain. Updating expectations in the light of new experiences is a matter of undoing andretying conceptual tangles. The Jovian art of thread manipulation is a theory of learning,helpful in at least some corners of life, just like Bayesian probability. And it is physics-neutral, just as the bare structure of Terran probability theory is. Should the Joviansdevelop quantum mechanics, the Born rule would be an empirical addition to their theoryof knots, an extra consistency or coherence condition phrased in the terms of that theory.

Thus, the use of personalist Bayesian probability theory itself may be secondary to adeeper physical principle; however, this line of thought has not been developed in anydetail. And even if it were, some conceptions of probability, such as Lewisian objectivechance, assert the existence of physical properties which are incompatible with QBism [35].An alternative theory of learning would not erase that incompatibility.

Appendix B: Von Neumann, Bohm and Lüders

In the main text, we have shown how von Neumann’s thinking, even when it turned tonotions like “subjective inner life,” did not align with Quantum Bayesianism or QBism. It isalso helpful to see how other physicists read von Neumann. Two historically significant ex-amples, Bohm and Lüders, indicate how physicists who paid close attention to von Neumanndid not take a Bayesian message from his work.

One place where von Neumann’s influence was felt is David Bohm’s 1951 textbook, Quan-tum Theory [8]. Bohm wrote this book before developing what we now call “Bohmian me-chanics”; instead of trying to make sense of quantum theory using pilot waves, it aims topresent the perceived practical orthodoxy of the time. Bohm’s chapter on the “quantumtheory of the measurement process” references MFQM ’s discussion of that topic, with noindication that Bohm found it flawed (p. 583, §22.1).

First, Bohm interprets quantum probabilities as long-run frequencies. The meaning ofa probability found by squaring the magnitude of a wave function depends, he says, on “alarge number of equivalent systems” prepared identically (p. 224, §10.30). Furthermore, foran individual quantum system, there is in principle a correct quantum state; “the physicalstate of the system” determines “the probability of a quantum jump” (p. 30, §2.5). Bohmdescribes one thought experiment in the following terms (p. 606, §22.11):

The entire system, consisting of spin, z co-ordinate of the atom, apparatus whichmeasures the z co-ordinate, and apparatus which records the results of thismeasurement, is assumed to have some pure wave function when the experimentstarts. (It is not necessary that any human observer know exactly what thiswave function is.)

If one of a set of quantum states might be physically present, Bohm treats the situation witha “statistical ensemble of states” (p. 604, §22.10). Refining an ensemble to contain only asingle state “represents absolutely no change in the state of the spin”; indeed, Bohm goesso far as to argue that this means the terms “mixed state” and “pure state” are misleading.

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It seems unwise to adopt a terminology that suggests the spin changes its state(from mixed to pure) under circumstances in which nothing changes exceptthe observer’s information about the spin. The phrase “statistical ensembleof states” provides a more accurate description.

For Bohm and von Neumann alike, states are physically present outside the physicist, anduncertainty about which state might be extant is represented by statistical ensembles. LikeBohm, von Neumann draws a categorical line between what we would call pure states andmixed states.

Lüders, who criticized MFQM ’s treatment of state change due to measurement, kept toMFQM ’s philosophy of probability [58].

In a measurement of R followed by a selection of rk, Z is transformed to

Z ′k = PkZPk.

Z ′k is not normalized [. . .] but instead is chosen so that the trace shows therelative frequency of the occurrence of rk in the ensemble.

[Bei Messung von R mit nachfolgender Aussonderung von rk geht Z über in

Z ′k = PkZPk.

Z ′k ist nicht normiert [. . .] sondern so gewählt, daß die Spur die relative Häufigkeitdes Auftretens von rk in der Gesamtheit wiedergibt.]

Here we have someone who read von Neumann carefully and offered a correction to vonNeumann’s work. Lüders is plainly frequentist, yet never argues that this represents adeparture from von Neumann—because, as we have seen, it doesn’t.

Appendix C: Multiplicity of Density-Matrix Decompositions

The main text shows how the multiplicity of pure-state decompositions of a mixed den-sity matrix is an important point to consider. The mathematical derivation is a standardresult [46, 85]; however, I was unable to find a source for it online that I did not have to payto download. For convenience, and to make clear what exactly is being claimed, I reproducethe argument here.

Let ρ be a density matrix, and let {|êi〉} be a normalized eigenbasis of ρ with eigenvalues{λi}. Denote the rank of ρ by k, and pick an arbitrary matrix M of dimensions r×k, wherer ≥ k, and the columns of M are orthonormal vectors in Cr. Then, for any such choice ofmatrix M , the set of unnormalized states

|ψi〉 =k∑j=1

Mij√λj|êj〉, with i = 1, . . . , r, (C1)

provide a resolution of the density matrix ρ. The proof is straightforward. First,

r∑i=1|ψi〉〈ψi| =

r∑i=1

k∑l,m

M∗ilMim√λlλm|êm〉|êl〉. (C2)

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Using the orthonormality of the columns of M , we simplify this to

r∑i=1|ψi〉〈ψi| =

k∑m=1

λm|êm〉〈êm|. (C3)

The quantity on the right is just the density matrix ρ, meaning that

ρ =r∑i=1|ψi〉〈ψi|. (C4)

If we normalize the states {|ψi〉} by ∣∣∣ψ̂i〉 = |ψi〉√〈ψi|ψi〉

, (C5)

then the density matrix is

ρ =r∑i=1

wi∣∣∣ψ̂i〉〈ψ̂i∣∣∣, where wi = 〈ψi|ψi〉. (C6)

The coefficients wi give the statistical weightings of the states in the decomposition.

Appendix D: QBism in the Media

This essay was originally prompted by a claim in the Wikipedia article on “QuantumBayesianism,” a page that, then as now, focused on QBism. Since Wikipedia relies uponsecondary sources for material, it is worth noting the other places where QBism has beentreated in popular or semi-popular venues.

QBism has been written up both in New Scientist [18] and in Scientific American [101],though not terribly accurately in either case, thanks to the editorial process [61–63]. A bettertreatment, albeit in German, appeared in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung [108].Nature addressed it briefly in the context of information-oriented reconstructions of quantumtheory [4]. Later, Mermin published in Nature an opinion piece promoting QBism [60], whichwas featured on the magazine cover.

In June 2015, the pop-science website Quanta Magazine ran an interview with Fuchs [38].The accompanying profile is largely accurate, except for a figure caption that implies QBismis a hidden-variable theory:

A quantum particle can be in a range of possible states. When an observermakes a measurement, she instantaneously “collapses” the wave function intoone possible state. QBism argues that this collapse isn’t mysterious. It justreflects the updated knowledge of the observer. She didn’t know where theparticle was before the measurement. Now she does.

A better caption would go more like the following:

In the textbook way of doing quantum physics, a quantum particle has a “wavefunction” that changes smoothly when no one is looking, but which makes asharp jump or “collapse” when the particle is observed. QBism argues that

19

this collapse isn’t mysterious. It just reflects the altered expectations of theobserver. Before the measurement, she didn’t know what would happen to herwhen she interacted with the particle. After the measurement, she can updateher expectations for her future experiences accordingly.

(Originally, the subhead was also misleading; soon after the interview appeared, Quantafixed the subhead, but not the figure caption. So it goes.)

Later, Fuchs was interviewed for the Australian Broadcasting Company’s program, ThePhilosopher’s Zone [40]. A pop-science book on QBism is also forthcoming [102].

Appendix E: How Wikipedia Fails, And Perhaps Why

Wikipedia’s treatment of QBism has other problems, beyond the historical matter thatthe main text explores at length. For example, it asserts that QBism “is very similar tothe Copenhagen interpretation that is commonly taught in textbooks.” We can legitimatelyask what this might even mean. As we noted above, “the Copenhagen interpretation” is anill-defined term. Furthermore, claiming that “the Copenhagen interpretation” is “commonlytaught in textbooks” conflates both the early developers of quantum theory and the variedmodern expositions of it into a vague, undifferentiated mishmash. Asher Peres’ textbook ismore instrumentalist than the undergraduate standards [73]; the Feynman Lectures handleprobability in a less frequentist way than Peres [28]. Are all common textbooks Copenhagen,or is Copenhagen that which is commonly taught in all textbooks?

The general disorganized sloppiness of the “Quantum Bayesianism” page illustrates whathappens when articles grow by accretion: many small additions, contributed by multipleauthors without an overall plan, forming a text by bricolage. Volunteer collaboration cando great things, but just as not all computational problems admit an easy parallelization,not all writing tasks are well served by the Wikipedia approach.

“Wander off the big ideas in the sciences,” writes one observer, “and you’re likely torun into entries that are excessively technical and provide almost no context, making themeffectively incomprehensible” [97]. Of course, technical content has its place, but the materialthat would lead into the technicalities, outlining the motivations and prerequisites for them,isn’t there. It doesn’t get written, because that kind of work is harder to do by piecemealadditions. Wikipedia relies on “drive-by contributors” [88] working in their copious free timewith only the haziest of overall plans, and with essentially no opportunity to get academicrecognition for their effort. This puts a great barrier in the way of building pedagogicallyuseful material.

The question of which topics get covered, and to what extent and with what level ofsophistication, is a fascinating one [41]. (At least, I have puzzled over it for years.) Butwhat happens when the material that does get written contains errors?

Obvious disruption on Wikipedia, like replacing entire articles with strings of profanity,gets caught and reversed quickly. Subtle changes last longer and propagate farther. Somesilliness about the Golden Ratio and Duchamp’s Nu descendant un escalier n◦ 2 survived forover a year, and when it was caught, the “fix” resulted in attributing a claim to a source thatdid not contain it [93]. A couple of stoned college kids made a joking edit to the page of achildren’s book author, which endured for over five years and ended up uncritically acceptedin, among many other places, a book about Jesus [24]. A purported Australian aboriginaldeity, “Jar’Edo Wens,” lasted almost ten years and appeared in a book promoting atheism,

20

among a long list of gods who had faded from belief [23].Sometimes, the process even closes back upon itself: careless writers elsewhere use a

bit of entertaining trivia invented on Wikipedia, and their writings in turn become sourcesto fill in the “citation needed” tag on the Wikipedia page. This is how the coati becamethe “Brazilian aardvark” [80]. Similarly, thanks to other sites mirroring Wikipedia content,the Wikipedia page for “Pareto efficiency” was self-referential for three months [43]. Thecartoonist Randall Munroe termed this process “citogenesis” [66], and the results can beremarkably difficult to sort out, particularly if the debunking requires “Original Research.”In the Wikipedian argot, “OR” includes “any analysis or synthesis of published materialthat serves to reach or imply a conclusion not stated by the sources” [111]. If no sourceexplicitly states that “Jar’Edo Wens” is a hoax or that the “Brazilian aardvark” is a prank,then arguing that they should be removed easily spills over into “OR.”

And so, Wikipedia’s own policies, well-intentioned as they are, can provide the amber topreserve fabrications both whimsical and malicious. For good or ill, the flies endure.

[1] S. Aaronson, Quantum Computing Since Democritus (Cambridge University Press, 2013).[2] D. Bacon, “OMG My Classical Probability Distribution Collapsed!” The Quantum Pontiff

(2005). http://dabacon.org/pontiff/?p=987.[3] J. C. Baez, “Bayesian Probability Theory and Quantum Mechanics,” http://math.ucr.

edu/home/baez/bayes.html (2003).[4] P. Ball, “Quantum Quest,” Nature 501 (2013): 154–56.[5] H. N. Barnum, “Quantum Knowledge, Quantum Belief, Quantum Reality: Notes of a QBist

Fellow Traveler,” arXiv:1003.4555 [quant-ph].[6] S. D. Bartlett, T. Rudolph and R. W. Spekkens, “Reconstruction of Gaussian quantum

mechanics from Liouville mechanics with an epistemic restriction,” Physical Review A 86(2012): 012103. arXiv:1111.5057 [quant-ph].

[7] C. Białobrzeski et al. New Theories in Physics (International Institute of Intellectual Co-Operation, 1939). Bohr’s lecture is also reprinted in The Philosophical Writings of NielsBohr, Volume IV: Causality and Complementarity, edited by J. Faye and H. J. Folse (OxBow, 1998).

[8] D. Bohm, Quantum Theory (Prentice-Hall, 1951).[9] M. Brown, How I Killed Pluto and Why It Had It Coming (Spiegel & Grau, 2010).[10] C. Brukner, “On the quantum measurement problem,” arXiv:1507.05255 [quant-ph]. To

be published in Quantum [Un]Speakables II (Springer-Verlag, 2015).[11] J. Bub, “The Measurement Problem of Quantum Mechanics,” in Proceedings of the Inter-

national School of Physics ‘Enrico Fermi’ (North Holland, 1979), edited by G. Toroldo diFrancia.

[12] J. Bub, “The Measurement Problem from the Perspective of an Information-Theoretic In-terpretation of Quantum Mechanics,” Entropy 17, 11 (2015): 7374–86.

[13] A. Cabello, “Interpretations of quantum theory: A map of madness,” arXiv:1509.04711[quant-ph].

[14] K. Camilleri, “Constructing the Myth of the Copenhagen Interpretation,” Perspectives inScience 17, 1 (2009): 26–57.

[15] K. Camilleri and M. Schlosshauer, “Niels Bohr as Philosopher of Experiment: Does Deco-

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herence Theory Challenge Bohr’s Doctrine of Classical Concepts?” Studies in History andPhilosophy of Modern Physics 49 (2015): 73–83. arXiv:1502.06547 [quant-ph].

[16] A. Caticha, “From Objective Amplitudes to Bayesian Probabilities,” in Foundations of Prob-ability and Physics–4, edited by G. Adenier, C. A. Fuchs and A. Khrennikov (AIP, 2007).arXiv:quant-ph/0610076.

[17] C. M. Caves, C. A. Fuchs and R. Schack, “Unknown Quantum States: The Quantum deFinetti Representation,” Journal of Mathematical Physics 43, 9 (2002): 4537–59. arXiv:quant-ph/0104088.

[18] M. Chalmers, “QBism: Is quantum uncertainty all in the mind?” New Scientist issue2968 (2014): 32–25. Available to subscribers at http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22229680.400-qbism-is-quantum-uncertainty-all-in-the-mind.html.

[19] B. Coecke, B. Edwards, R. W. Spekkens, “Phase groups and the origin of non-localityfor qubits,” Electronic Notes in Theoretical Computer Science 270 (2011): 15–36. arXiv:1003.5005 [quant-ph].

[20] B. Coecke and B. Edwards, “Toy quantum categories,” Electronic Notes in Theoretical Com-puter Science 270 (2011): 29–40. arXiv:0808.1037 [quant-ph].

[21] B. Coecke and R. W. Spekkens, “Picturing classical and quantum Bayesian inference,” Syn-these 186 (2012): 651–96. arXiv:1102.2368 [quant-ph].

[22] Democritus, fragment DK 68B9, which comes to us via Sextus Empiricus, Against the Mathe-maticians (c. 200), 7.136. The translation in K. Freeman’s Ancilla to the Pre-Socratic Philoso-phers (Harvard University Press, 1948) is, “We know nothing accurately in reality, but [only]as it changes according to the bodily condition, and the constitution of those things thatflow upon [the body] and impinge upon it.”

[23] C. Dewey, “The story behind Jar’Edo Wens, the longest-running hoax in Wikipedia his-tory,” The Washington Post: The Intersect (2015). https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-intersect/wp/2015/04/15/the-great-wikipedia-hoax/.

[24] E. J. Dickson, “I accidentally started a Wikipedia hoax,” Daily Dot (2014). See http://www.dailydot.com/lol/amelia-bedelia-wikipedia-hoax/.

[25] D. Ferguson, “Anti-trans trolling spree forces Wikipedia to ban U.S. House staffers for thirdtime,” The Raw Story (2014). Seehttp://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/08/21/anti-trans-trolling-spree-forces-wikipedia-to-ban-u-s-house-staffers-for-third-time.

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