Modeling Oil Spills in Ice and Biological Effects(OSMICO project)

Victor Cesar M. de Aguiar

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Geophysical Institute

2020

Norsk Geofysisk Forening 2020 Havforskermøtet 1 / 9

The OSMICO project

Researchers: Lars R. Hole (MET) (project leader),Knut-Frode Dagestad (MET), Victor de Aguiar (MET), AlexeiBambulyak (APN), Magnus Aune (APN), Denis Moiseev and

Georgy Duhno (MMBI)

Funding: The Fram Center

Goal.

To implement an oil-in-ice drift model and use it as a toolfor ecosystem consequence assessments.

Norsk Geofysisk Forening 2020 Havforskermøtet 2 / 9

OpenDrift

OpenDrift is an open-source Lagrangian frameworkdeveloped at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and

available on: https://opendrift.github.io/

✓ Offline trajectory model – no compilation needed

✓ Coded in Python – (with GUI)

✓ Modular for different applications:

Search-and-rescue (Leeway)Oil transport and weathering (OpenOil)Plastic drift (PlastDrift)Pelagic fish eggs (PelagicEgg)Ice Bergs (OpenBerg)

✓ Forward and backward calculations

✓ Can be initialized from satellite images

Norsk Geofysisk Forening 2020 Havforskermøtet 3 / 9

The oil-in-ice model

Rule-of-thumb

In low sea ice fraction (C<0.3): oil drifts as in openwater.

In high sea ice fraction (C≥0.8): oil drifts with the seaice.

Voil = κ(Vice)+(1−κ)(Vocean+fwVwind)

Where:

κ

⎧⎪⎪⎪⎪⎨⎪⎪⎪⎪⎩

0, if C < 0.3C−0.3

0.8−0.3 , if 0.3 ≤ C < 0.8

1, if C ≥ 0.8

Nordam et al. (2019): Improving oil spill trajectory modelling in the Arctic

Norsk Geofysisk Forening 2020 Havforskermøtet 4 / 9

Spill Impact Mitigation Assessment

SIMA

Methodology used to select the most appropriateoption(s) for oil recovery and mitigation of potential

environmental impact.

Norsk Geofysisk Forening 2020 Havforskermøtet 5 / 9

Oil spill simulation in the Pechora Sea

Brunnich’s guillemot distribution Apr - Nvb, 2016 - 2019; Data: NINA

Norsk Geofysisk Forening 2020 Havforskermøtet 6 / 9

Take-home message & next steps

✓ OSMICO can be applied in SIMA method forcontingency planning and incident response.

✓ The study case showed that oil drift pattern changes in thepresence of sea ice and different mitigation techniques shouldbe applied.

⋆ Implement a second oil-in-ice module and evaluate theiroutputs against buoy trajectories.

⋆ Couple oil spill simulations to an end-to-end ecosystem model.

Norsk Geofysisk Forening 2020 Havforskermøtet 7 / 9

Thank you!

Norsk Geofysisk Forening 2020 Havforskermøtet 8 / 9

Questions?

Norsk Geofysisk Forening 2020 Havforskermøtet 9 / 9