(Valid at 10am 9/2/14)

Forecast, Dec 8 2017, 6 AM Forecast, Dec 24, 2004, 6 PM

Skinny• A modified “McFarland” jet stream pattern is forecast for Thursday night/Friday• Allows plunge of Canadian air to combine with disturbance to create precipitation• Airmass is cold enough for some snow to mix with rain Thursday night-early Friday• But not as cold as the “White Christmas” event (right image) in 2004• Difference between surface low in western Gulf and strong surface high in west Texas will

regenerate Gulf Gales at sea, low wind chills (feel like) on land

(Valid at 10am 9/2/14)

2 PM Dec. 7 Forecast Temperature 2 PM Dec. 7 Fcst “Feels Like” Temperature (Wind Chill)

(Valid at 10am 9/2/14)

6 AM Dec. 8 Forecast Temperature 6 AM Dec. 8 Forecast “Feels Like” Temperature (Wind Chill)

(Valid at 10am 9/2/14)

Potential for 1” on grassy areasIf snow falls at fast rate

Reasonable “Worse Case” Scenario

“Conversational”Snow

Midnight to 9 AM Friday, Dec. 8

(Valid at 10am 9/2/14)

10-20% chance

5-10% chance

1-5% chance

Probability of 1” of snow accumulation 12 AM to 9 AM Friday

(Valid at 10am 9/2/14)

• Gale Warnings Likely Lower Texas Gulf Waters• Expected Wind: 25 to 32 knots with

Frequent Gusts 40 knots• Waves: Beaufort Force 6 and 7 (shown); 11 to

15 feet at peak Thursday Night/Friday AM • Small Craft Boaters/Fishers: Suggested to

postpone trips until Saturday at earliest

(Valid at 10am 9/2/14)

How to Prepare• Check your wiper blades and

replace if dry-rotted• Check tire tread/air pressure

and fill/replace as needed• Remove debris from ditches

and canals

Visibility and Traction Leave Time for Reaction!

Don’t Forget Your Furry Friends!

Cold Nights AheadFor any pets left outside!

Tonight38-44°F

Remember: Fresh water, food, shelter from elements, and blanketsor straw if stuck outdoors!

NWS Brownsville, TX

PM: 40-47°F Night: 33-40°F

Thursday

PM: 52-56°F Night: 34-39°F

Friday

Wrap• Cold

– Actual Temperatures in 30s and 40s, “Feels Like” Temperatures in 20s and 30s through Noon Friday (Dec. 8). Frost Possible Early Saturday (Dec 9) daybreak.

– Bundle Up: Multiple layers and a hat/scarf recommended outdoors– Young tropical vegetation should remain inside until Saturday afternoon– Don’t forget about pets; they may not be acclimated to the sudden

change

• Wintry Precipitation– A small but non-zero chance of 1” of wet snow, mainly on grasses,

across Upper RGV and Ranchlands late Thursday night through early Friday

– “Conversational” snow may fall across populated RGV, but no impact is expected now

– Forecast could still shift a bit, so keep tuned for updates

Wrap, Continued• Boating/Fishing/Beach/Tides

– Gale Force Winds, Beaufort Force 7 Seas = No Go for Small Craft Through Friday

– Rough/Confused and High Surf With 8+ foot Breakers– Tidal Run-Up to SPI Dunes Possible Especially Thursday

Afternoon/Evening

• Rain– “Good” Rain to Relieve Dryness in Some Areas (No Flooding)…– But steady enough to cause issues to drivers (and vehicles) not

prepared…– It’s been awhile since we’ve seen an all-day/night steady rain

and Thursday through early Friday fit the bill