Valeri SpiralofSilence

8/14/2019 Valeri SpiralofSilence

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/valeri-spiralofsilence 1/23

Running head: THE SPIRAL OF SILENCE 1

THE SPIRAL OF SILENCE

Andy Valeri

Media, Couni!a"ion# and Huan Righ"#

In"erdi#!i$linary S"udie# %radua"e Progra

&ni'er#i"y o( )ay"on

Eail: andy*u#"'edia+org

P+O+ o- ./., )ay"on, OH 00/2

&ni"ed S"a"e#



S$iral o( Silen!e 3

A4#"ra!"

Thi# $a$er $ro'ide# an o'er'ie5 o( "he "heory o( "he S$iral o( Silen!e, in!luding "he underlying

$rei#e o( $er#onal need (or o$inion !ongruen!e and #o!ial !on(ori"y u$on 5hi!h i" i# 4a#ed,

and "he e-"en#i'e 4ody o( rela"ed re#ear!h 5hi!h e-i#"# aong#" a ul"i"ude o( a!adei!

di#!i$line# regarding "he "heory+ Conne!"ion# and !o$ari#on# are ade 4e"5een "he e-i#"ing

da"a and analy#i# aong#" "he#e 'ariou# (ield# o( re#ear!h in order "o 4e""er under#"and "he

rele'an!e and 'alidi"y o( "he "heory, e#$e!ially a# i" rela"e# "o "he i$a!"# "he #$iral $henoenon

!an ha'e u$on a #o!ie"y 5i"hin a $oli"i!al !on"e-"+ Addi"ional a""en"ion i# $aid "o5ard# "he role

o( "he edia in $er$e"ra"ing #$iral# o( #ilen!e, a# 5ell a# "he i$li!a"ion# #u!h #$iral e((e!"# !an

ha'e u$on and 5i"hin edia"ed !ouni!a"ion #y#"e# "he#el'e# in a #o!ie"y+



S$iral o( Silen!e .

The S$iral o( Silen!e

One o( "he ore e-"en#i'ely #"udied and re(eren!ed "heorie# aong#" !ouni!a"ion

#!holar# and re#ear!her# #in!e i" 5a# (ir#" $ro$o#ed in "he 126/7# 4y %eran $oli"i!al #!ien"i#"

Eli#a4e"h Noelle8Neuann ha# 4een "ha" o( "he S$iral o( Silen!e+

A!!ording "o "he original "heory a# $o#"ula"ed 4y Noelle8Neuann, "he ore a $er#on

4elie'e# "he o$inion "hey hold i# !ongruen" "o $re'ailing $u4li! o$inion, "he ore 5illing "hey

5ill 4e "o o$enly di#!lo#e "ha" o$inion in $u4li!+ Con'er#ely, "he ore a $er#on (eel# "heir

o$inion i# di'ergen" (ro "he $er!ei'ed ain#"rea 'ie5, "he le## li9ely "hey 5ill 4e "o e-$re## i"

$u4li!ly Noelle8Neuann, 1260;+ Noelle8Neuann de#!ri4e# ho5 $eo$le $er!ei'e 5i"h 5ha"

#he "ered a <=ua#i8#"a"i#"i!al organ,> or a #or" o( <#i-"h #en#e>; "hrough indi!a"ion# in o"her#

and 'ia "he a## edia, a $re'ailing <!lia"e o( o$inion+> a#ed on "he#e $er!e$"ion#, an iage

o( doina"e o$inion (or# one "ha" ay or ay no" a!"ually re(le!" "he real di#"ri4u"ion o(

$u4li! o$inion;, and indi'idual# #oon 4egin "o odi(y "heir o5n o$inion# and?or 4eha'ior

a!!ording "o 5ha" "hey $er!ei'e "o 4e "he doinan" o$inion+ The @u#"i(i!a"ion "ha" Noelle8

Neuann 1260; o((er# (or "hi# ada$"i'e 4eha'ior i# "he (ear o( e-$erien!ing i#ola"ion (ro

!er"ain #o!ial grou$# "ha" !ould re#ul" (ro no" holding "he <righ"> o$inion+

a#ed on "hi# <=ua#i8#"a"i#"i!al #en#e> and o"i'a"ed 4y "hi# (ear, $eo$le 5ho (eel "heir

o$inion i# no" in "he a@ori"y 5ill #ilen!e "heir o5n idea# and 5i#h "o a" lea#" a$$ear "o #hare "he

#eeingly uni'er#al doinan" 'ie5 Noelle8Neuann, 1260;+ A# a re#ul" "hi# #ilen!e 5ill !rea"e

a $er!e$"ion "ha" "he a@ori"y $o#i"ion i# e'en grea"er "han i" a!"ually i#+ Thi# 5ill ye" (ur"her

di#!ourage "ho#e "ha" do no" #hare "ha" $o#i"ion (ro e-$re##ing "heir $oin" o( 'ie5

and, #u!!e##i'ely, an a#!ending #$iral o( #ilen!e, o( 5hi!h !ould 4e o( #u!h agni"ude "ha" a

inori"y o$inion erroneou#ly $a##e# (or "he a@ori"y, 4e!oe# "he $re'ailing o$inion

Noelle8Neuann, 1260;+



S$iral o( Silen!e 0

Re#ear!her# and #!holar# a!ro## a nu4er o( di#!i$line# !on"inue "o deon#"ra"e "heir

in"ere#" in 4e""er under#"anding "he #$iral o( #ilen!e e((e!" "hrough "he e'er8gro5ing aoun" o(

a""en"ion "he "heory re!ei'e# 5i"hin "he (ield o( re#ear!h+ Thi# i# $ar"i!ularly e'iden" in "he (ield

o( $oli"i!al #!ien!e, 5here "he "heory (ir#" origina"ed, a# 5ell a# "ho#e o( !ouni!a"ion,

#o!iology, $#y!hology, e'en 4u#ine## #"udie#, 5here i" ha# 4een $ro$o#ed "ha" a!hie'ing

$rodu!"i'e organia"ional !ouni!a"ion $ro!e##e# (or ore e((e!"i'e 4u#ine## $ra!"i!e# en"ail#

re$la!ing a #$iral o( #ilen!e 5i"h a <'ir"uou# #$iral o( !ouni!a"ion> Perlo5 B illia#,

3//.;+ Thi# i# in order "o a'oid #oe o( "he o#" nega"i'e !on#e=uen!e# o( #$iral o( #ilen!e

e((e!"#, 5hi!h !an o!!ur 5hen u$5ard !ouni!a"ion 5i"hin an organia"ion i# #u$$re##ed and

anageen" in"er$re"# "he #ilen!e "ha" en#ue# a# agreeen" 5i"h $oli!ie# 5hi!h ay 4e

de"rien"al "o "he o'erall e((e!"i'ene## o( "he organia"ion Hau(ler, 3//6;+ A##uing "ha"

!ouni!a"ion 5i"hin a 4u#ine## #"ru!"ure, no a""er i"# $er!ei'ed $o$ulari"y, i# e##en"ial "o

anaging a $ro(i"a4le 4u#ine## en'ironen", 5ha" i# "hen needed "o !oun"era!" a #$iral

$henoenon i# a !o$le"e !ul"ural ind8#hi(" 5here "he in"ra$er#onal =ue#"ion 4eing $o#ed i#n7"

5he"her one i# a" a oen" 5here one need# "o #$ea9 u$, 4u" ra"her 5he"her i" i# one o( "ho#e

rare "ie# 5here one need# "o 9ee$ =uie" Perlo5 B illia#, 3//.;+

The #$iral o( #ilen!e ha# 4een a $ar"i!ularly !o$elling "heory and u#e(ul odel o(

e-$lana"ion (or "ho#e #"udying and analying !ouni!a"ion $ro!e##e# and e((e!"# 5i"hin a

$oli"i!al !on"e-" in #o!ie"y, a $oin" deon#"ra"ed 4y "he #eeing $re$onderan!e o( re#ear!h

rela"ing "o i" 5i"hin "he (ield# o( #o!iology and $oli"i!al #!ien!e+ In (a!", "he 'ery "heory i"#el(

5a# (ir#" $o#"ula"ed "o 4e""er under#"and 5hy and ho5 a inori"y $oli"i!al $ar"y 5a# a4le "o

ani(e#" "o"al and a4#olu"e $o5er o'er a #o!ie"y and lead i" on a $a"h "o5ard# ruin, in "he

(a!e o( $er#onal di#agreeen" and o$$o#i"ion (ro a #iea4le $or"ion o( "ha" $o$ula"ion 5ho le("

#u!h di#agreeen"# and la!9 o( a$$ro'al une-$re##ed+



S$iral o( Silen!e

Though "he #$iral o( #ilen!e #er'e# a# an in"riguing e-$lana"ion a# "o 5hy and ho5 "hi#

$henoenon "a9e# $la!e, Noelle8Neuann7# 5or9 i# 4y no ean# "he (ir#" "o re#ear!h "he#e

"y$e# o( !hara!"eri#"i!# o( #o!ial !on(ori"y+ Soloon A#!h7# line #ie e-$erien"# o( "he

12/7# deon#"ra"ing ho5 $eo$le 5ill a9e o4'iou#ly 5rong #"a"een"# #i$ly in order "o

!on(or "o "he a@ori"y A#!h, 12; $ro'ide# a 4a#i# o( legi"ia!y (or "he #$iral o( #ilen!e

hy$o"he#i#+

hile a #iea4le 4ody o( e'iden!e #ee# "o $ro'ide 'alida"ion (or !er"ain a#$e!"# o( Noelle8

Neuann7# early hy$o"he#i#, "here i# an e'er8gro5ing 4ody o( re#ear!h 5hi!h al#o #ho5# "ha"

"here are nuerou# addi"ional (a!"or# 5hi!h need "o 4e "a9en in"o a!!oun" in order "o ore

e((e!"i'ely di#!ern 5he"her a #$iral e((e!" i# in'ol'ed, and "o 5ha" degree i" #er'e# a# a !au#e and

e-$lana"ion (or "he #o!ial e((e!"# 4eing o4#er'ed+ Thi# need (or a ore e-$an#i'e and nuan!ed

under#"anding o( "he "heory, and "he role i" ay 4e $laying 5i"hin a !ouni!a"ion !on"e-", i#

a$$aren" 5hen one "a9e# in"o a!!oun" "he e'er8in!rea#ing le'el o( ul"i'aria"e (a!"or# in'ol'ed

in a""e$"ing "o an#5er "he =ue#"ion# "ha" !on"inue "o 4e $o#ed in "rying "o !oe "o a ore

a!!ura"e analy#i# in di#!erning a #$iral o( #ilen!e e((e!"+

E-"ra$ola"ing o(( o( "he original <#$iral o( #ilen!e> and <!lia"e o( o$inion> $henoena,

#"udie# #u!h a# "ho#e on ul"i'aria"e "e#"# o( "he #$iral o( #ilen!e hy$o"he#i# Salon B

Neu5ir"h, 12D6; loo9 a" rela"ion#hi$# 4e"5een #u!h (a!"or# a# o$inion e-$re##ion and an

indi'idual7# $er!e$"ion o( 5ha" "he doinan"7 o$inion a!"ually i#+ O"her =ue#"ion# $er"ain "o

under#"anding 5ha" "he e((e!" o( "ha" o$inion !lia"e i# i( i" i# $er!ei'ed "o 4e na"ional in #!o$e

or o( a ore lo!al na"ure, 5ha" are "he deogra$hi! (a!"or# in'ol'ed, and 5ha" i# a $er#on7#

$rior a""i"ude# and 4eha'ior# "o5ard# "he $er!ei'ed doinan" o$inion Salon B

Neu5ir"h, 12D6;+ Re#ul"# (ro "he#e #"udie# aong#" o"her# $ro'ide a i-ed 4ag o( 'arying

degree# o( #u$$or", or la!9 o( i", (or a nu4er o( "he original $ro$o#i"ion# o( Noelle8Neuann7#



S$iral o( Silen!e

"heorie# and 4ring "o "he (ore #oe rele'an" =ue#"ion# and !ri"i=ue# o( her "heory+

For in#"an!e, Noelle8Neuann argue# "ha" i" i# one7# perception o( 5he"her one7# 'ie5$oin"

i# in "he a@ori"y or inori"y, ye" #he !on#i#"en"ly analye# "he re#ear!h da"a 4a#ed u$on o$inion

!ongruen!e 5i"h actual a@ori"y and inori"y 'ie5#+ A# Salon B Neu5ir"h 12D6; $oin" ou" in

"heir re#ear!h, in only one in#"an!e ou" o( "he li"erally doen# o( e-a$le# o( da"a "ha" Noelle8

Neuann $ro'ide#, "here i# only one in 5hi!h #he !o$are# $er!ei'ed o$inion 5i"h a!"ual

o$inion !ongruen!e+ The u#e o( actual o$inion !ongruen!e da"a i# irrele'an" i( "he re#$onden"

doe# no" perceive "heir o$inion i# !ongruen" 5i"h a@ori"y o$inion+ Thi# de(i!ien!y in her odel

i# one "ha" need# "o 4e ore "horoughly addre##ed in (u"ure re#ear!h in order "o 4e""er analye a

"rue !lia"e o( o$inion $henoenon a" 5or9+

The ode# o( !ouni!a"ion in'ol'ed ha'e al#o 4een deon#"ra"ed "o a((e!" one7#

5illingne## "o #$ea9 ou" on an i##ue+ Re#ear!h ha# #ho5n "here i# #oe !orrela"ion 4e"5een

<$u4li! di#$lay e-$re##ion#> o( o$inion# "hrough #u!h "a!"i!# a# 4u$er #"i!9er#, #hir"# and

ha"#, yard #ign#, le""er# "o ne5#$a$er#, e"!G and "he $er!ei'ed !lia"e o( o$inion, e'en aong#"

"ho#e 5ho igh" o"her5i#e no" 4e de"erred (ro e-$re##ing "he#el'e# in o"her anner# and

en'ironen"#, regardle## o( "he $er!e$"ion o( $o$ulari"y o( "heir 'ie5$oin"# Perry, 122;+ To

5ha" audien!e one e-$re##e# one#el( and "o 5ha" degree i# al#o a (a!"or, in "ha" e-$re##ing a

'ie5$oin" "o a #"ranger, "o a rela"i'e, "o a !la##roo, or "o a TV re$or"er 5here one7# o$inion !an

4e heard 4y li"erally "hou#and# o( $eo$le, all ha'e i$a!"# u$on "he 5illingne## o( "he $er#on "o

#hare "heir o$inion Salon B Neu5ir"h, 12D6;+

O"her deon#"ra4le (a!"or# o( in(luen!e on "he degree o( "he a(oreen"ioned le'el# o(

5illingne## "o e-$re##ion in!lude one7# le'el o( $er!ei'ed #el(89no5ledge o( a "o$i!, a# 5ell

a# one7# $er#onal le'el o( i##ue in'ol'een", 5hi!h !an genera"e o"i'a"ion "o #$ea9 ou" on a

"o$i! o( grea"er $er#onal rele'an!e, regardle## o( e-"ernal o$inion Par9er, 3//0;+ Re#ear!h al#o



S$iral o( Silen!e 6

#ho5# "ha" an in!rea#ed le'el o( 4eing #el(8in(ored on a "o$i! rela"e# "o an in!rea#ed

5illingne## "o #$ea9 ou" on i" Par9er, 3//0;+ In (a!", $er#onal in'ol'een" and i##ue8a!"or

9no5ledge a$$ear "o 4e aong#" "he (e5 'aria4le# 5hi!h !an $redi!" a !er"ain le'el o( !on#"an!y

in o$inion e-$re##ion Salon B Neu5ir"h, 12D6;+

The role o( <e-e$lar#,> 5hi!h are e-a$le#, $er#onal #"orie# and "e#"ionial# o("en relayed

'ia "he edia and 5hi!h gi'e $er!ei'ed !redi4ili"y "o a gi'en $er#$e!"i'e, ha'e al#o 4een #ho5n

"o draa"i!ally in(luen!e "he #ha$ing o( $u4li! o$inion and in!rea#ed 5illingne## "o5ard# $u4li!

e-$re##ion o( "ho#e o$inion# 4y re#$onden"# Perry, 122;+ Ho5e'er, (ur"her la4ora"ory #"udie#

ha'e deon#"ra"ed #oe !on"radi!"ion# "o "he#e re#ul"#, (or a# "he u#e o( e-e$lar# ay $o##i4ly

ha'e a((e!"ed $u4li! opinion on an i##ue, "hey (ailed "o in!rea#e "he le'el o( $u4li! expression in

#u$$or" o( "ho#e o$inion# Perry B %oen4a!h, 3///;+

Re#ear!h ha# al#o deon#"ra"ed "ha" i( #$iraling $ro!e##e# o!!ur, "hey are no" only

!on"ingen" u$on "he ode o( !ouni!a"ion in'o9ed 4u" are al#o i##ue #$e!i(i! Salon B

Neu5ir"h, 12D6;+ For in#"an!e, an i##ue #u!h a# a4or"ion ay $ro'ide #u!h a #en#e o( oral

o4liga"ion and eo"ional in'e#"en" "ha" i" "ru$# $o"en"ial "re$ida"ion "o5ard# #$ea9ing ou" in

"he (a!e o( #o!ial #an!"ion+ Cer"ain i##ue# ay "hu#ly 4y "heir 'ery na"ure en"ail a grea"er

$er!en"age o( "he $o$ula"ion "o 4e re#i#"an" "o #$iral e((e!"# Perry, 122;, 5i"h #oe o( "he

a(oreen"ioned (a!"or# #u!h a# "o$i! 9no5ledge and $er#onal in'e#"en" in "he i##ue #er'ing a#

!au#ali"y (or de(ining #u!h $eo$le a# <hard !ore#> re#i#"an" "o !er"ain !ouni!a"ion #u$$re##ion

e((e!"# Par9er, 3//0;+ Al#o, "ho#e 5ho hold #"rong enough o$inion# and $er#$e!"i'e# on "he

i##ue, 5hen !o4ined 5i"h a #en#e o( 5ell8(ounded oral #"a"ure (or "ho#e $er#$e!"i'e#, igh"

4e ore 5illing "o #$ea9 ou" regardle## o( o"her#7 o$inion#, ado$"ing a <!ru#ader> role #ee9ing "o

!on'er" o"her# "o "heir $oin" o( 'ie5 Par9er, 3//0;+

Tho#e o#" no"a4ly iune "o re#i#"ing #o!ial !on(ori"y $re##ure# !an 4e de(ined



S$iral o( Silen!e D

$riarily a# <a'an" garde>, 5hi!h are "ho#e 5ho lead o$inion !hange and are !on(iden" "heir

'ie5# 5ill 5in ou", and <hard !ore#>, 5hi!h !an 4e (ound $ar"i!ularly aong#" !er"ain $oli"i!ally

ideologi!al a((ilia"ion# and (undaen"ali#" religiou# #e!"# Clar9, 3//;+ <Hard !ore#> "enden!y

"o5ard# do!"rinal a4#olu"i# and #"ri!" grou$ !on(ori"y re=uireen"# ean# e4er# 5ill

!on#ider e-"ernal $u4li! o$inion "o 4e irrele'an" and "hu# "he "hrea" o( #o!ial i#ola"ion doe# no"

a((e!" "he, #in!e e4er# 5ill 4e ore in(luen!ed 4y in"ernal grou$ ra"her "han e-"ernal

!olle!"i'e $re##ure#+ Thi# i#ola"ion and iuni"y "o #u!h e-"ernal #an!"ion i# enhan!ed 4y "he

u#e o( al"erna"i'e !ouni!a"ion !hannel#, 5hi!h $la!e# "he ou"#ide "he noral <!lia"e o(

!ul"ure> Clar9, 3//;+

Ano"her in"ere#"ing anoaly de'ia"ing (ro Noelle8Neuann7# original "heory o( (ear o(

i#ola"ion a# a o"i'a"ing (a!"or i# (ound in re#ear!h re#ul"# #ho5ing "ha" lo!al o$inion# 5ere le##

o( a (a!"or in o$inion !ongruen!e and 5illingne## "o #$ea9 ou" 4y re#$onden"# "han "hen 5ere

$er!ei'ed na"ional o$inion#, 5hi!h one igh" !on#ider le## i$or"an" a# an in(luen!e o( (or!e o(

#an!"ion "han one7# iedia"e #o!ial !ouni"y in 5hi!h one dire!"ly in"era!"# Salon B

Neu5ir"h, 12D6;+ A $o##i4le e-$lana"ion ay 4e "ha" 5hen an i##ue i# one in 5hi!h en"ail# a

na"ional #!o$e, "hen na"ional o$inion !ongruen!e i# ore i$or"an", and !on'er#ely, lo!al

o$inion !ongruen!e ay 4e ore i$or"an" (or i##ue# eana"ing (ro lo!al !on!ern#+

Rela"ed re#ear!h #"udying o$inion !ongruen!e 5i"h !lo#e #o!ial ne"5or9# #u!h a# (aily and

(riend# a# o$$o#ed "o "ho#e o( 4roader #o!ie"y, ha'e #u$$or"ed "he #$iral e((e!" hy$o"he#i# in "ha"

"here i# a rela"ional !onne!"ion 4e"5een ho5 5illing $eo$le are "o #$ea9 ou" on a "o$i! "o ho5

!lo#ely "hey (eel "ha" "heir (aily and (riend# #hare "ha" $er#$e!"i'e Par9er, 3//0;+ Ho5e'er, an

anoaly in re#ear!h da"a i# deon#"ra"ed in "ha" "ho#e 5i"h "he lea#" o$inion !ongruen!e 5i"h

!lo#e #o!ial ne"5or9# are ore li9ely "o e-$re## !oun"er'ailing 'ie5$oin"# "o "he a@ori"y

o$inion, $o##i4ly due "o "he a(oreen"ioned <!ru#ader> e((e!" a" 5or9 Par9er, 3//0;+



S$iral o( Silen!e 2

O"her 'aria4le# o( $o"en"ial in(luen!e on a #$iral e((e!" ore #"rongly in'o9ing a (ear o(

i#ola"ion due "o #$ea9ing ou" in!lude 5he"her one 4elie'e# one#el( "o 4e a e4er o( a inori"y

#u4grou$ a# o$$o#ed "o a a@ori"y #u4grou$ Salon B Neu5ir"h, 12D6;+ Thi# in!lude# 4eing a

e4er o( an in'i#i4le inori"y> #u!h a# gay and le#4ian# 5i"hin a #$e!i(i! organia"ional

!ul"ure o( $er!ei'ed non8a!!e$"an!e, 5here "he =ue#"ion e-i#"# a# "o 5he"her i" i# (ear o'er

un!er"ain"y a# "o 5ha" "he $re'ailing a!!e$"ed an#5er i#, or i# "he relu!"an!e o( o$inion

e-$re##ion !au#ed 4y un!er"ain"y a4ou" 5here one #i"# 5i"hin "he #o!ial #"ru!"ure one inha4i"#

o5en B la!9an, 3//.;+ The e((e!" o( ra!ial di((eren!e# regarding a re#$onden"7# !on!ern#

o'er "he i$a!" o( "heir e-$re##ed o$inion# i# ano"her (a!"or o( in(luen!e+ For e-a$le,

e4er# o( a inori"y grou$ la!9#; 5ere (ound "o 4e le## 5illing "o e-$re## o$inion# "o

e4er# o( a a@ori"y grou$ hi"e#; "han 'i!e 'er#a e((re#, Neuendor( B A"9in, 1222;+ Ra!e

al#o $layed a (a!"or in "he 5illingne## o( "he re#$onden" "o e-$re## o$inion# 5hen "ha" o$inion

5ould $o##i4ly 4e relayed 'ia !er"ain edia ou"le"# e((re#, Neuendor( B A"9in, 1222;+

The $er!ei'ed le'el o( o$$o#i"ion or ho#"ili"y "o5ard# one7# 'ie5 on "he $ar" o( "he

=ue#"ioner al#o !an a((e!" one7# o$enne## "o5ard# o$inion e-$re##ion+ One #"udy re'eal# "ha" a

ho#"ile o$inion !lia"e, in 5hi!h "he #u4@e!" i# =ue#"ioned 4y #oeone "hey 9no5 5ould

di#agree, $ro$"ed grea"er le'el# o( e-$re##ion a'oidan!e "han did $er!ei'ing one#el( in a ore

(riendly en'ironen" Haye#, 3//6;+ E-$re##ing indi((eren!e or a4i'alen!e, !hanging "he

#u4@e!", or re(le!"ing "he =ue#"ion 4a!9 5i"hou" an#5ering i" 5ere #oe o( "he e-$re##ion

a'oidan!e "e!hni=ue# u#ed 4y re#ear!h #u4@e!"# 5hen in 5ha" 5ere $er!ei'ed "o 4e

!on(ron"a"ional en'ironen"#+ In"ere#"ingly, "he !lia"e o( o$inion 5a# (ound "o 4e le##

in(luen"ial "han "he #u4@e!" o( "he "o$i! i"#el( in regard# "o in(luen!ing "he le'el o( e-$re##ion

a'oidan!e Haye#, 3//6;+ %enuine la!9 o( !on!ern (or "he i##ue i"#el( ra"her "han (ear o( #o!ial

i#ola"ion ha# "o "hu# 4e "a9en in"o a!!oun" 5hen a""e$"ing "o di#!ern "he $re'ailing !au#e (or



S$iral o( Silen!e 1/

e-$re##ion a'oidan!e 4eha'ior#+

In regard# "o "he degree o( $roinen!e and !on!ern #$e!i(i! i##ue# hold in #o!ie"y and "he

!lia"e o( o$inion 5hi!h #urround "he, $o##i4ly "he #ingle o#" in(luen"ial eleen" in a((e!"ing

"ha" !lia"e i# "he edia Noelle8Neuann, 1260;+ A lyn!h$in o( "he original #$iral o( #ilen!e

hy$o"he#i# 5a# $redi!a"ed on "he $re'ailing in(luen!e o( "he a## edia a# 4eing "he $re8

einen" #our!e o( #ha$ing and de(ining "he !ul"ure o( o$inion, $ro'iding <"he en'ironen"al

$re##ure "o 5hi!h $eo$le re#$ond> Noelle8Neuann, 1260;+ I" doe# #o "hrough an agenda8

#e""ing (un!"ion o( (ir#" #ele!"i'ely $o$ulariing and "hen legi"iiing !er"ain o$inion# and

$er#$e!"i'e# o'er o"her#, a!"ing a# "he $riary agen" o( #o!ial !hange 4y $re#en"ing one o$inion

a# doinan" or de#ira4le and ano"her a# un5an"ed or unde#ira4le, !rea"ing in "he 5ord# o( al"er

Li$$an a <$#eudo en'ironen"> o( o$inion in 5hi!h $eo$le #!an "o de"erine 5he"her "heir

'ie5# are in "he a@ori"y or are gaining #u$$or" Clar9, 3//;+

O$inion re#ear!h re!ognie# "he !onne!"ion 4e"5een ne5# edia !on"en" and a #$iral e((e!"

"hrough "hi# #ele!"i'e agenda #e""ing $ro!e## in in(luen!ing $u4li! o$inion and $u4li! de4a"e,

"hough "he !ondi"ion# under 5hi!h ho5 "he#e #$iral# o( #ilen!e are (ored are #"ill no" !learly

under#"ood+ Re#ear!h ha# ye" "o de"erine "he le'el o( i$or"an!e "he $oli"i!al !lia"e a!"ually

ha# on $u4li! o$inion (ora"ion "hrough edia in(luen!e#, in "ha" "he dynai!# o( "he (ora"ion

o( #$iral# o( #ilen!e ay 5or9 di((eren"ly under a $oli"i!ally re$re##i'e regie "han one 5i"h a

ore o$en !ouni!a"ion en'ironen" "ha" ay 4e e-$erien!ing an a"o#$here o( in!rea#ed

$re##ure (or #o!ial !on(ori"y on a #ingular i##ue, #u!h a# in "he &+S+ during "he lead u$ "o "he

in'a#ion o( Ira= Par9er, 3//0;+

The #ugge#"ed $o5er o( "he edia "o (rae i##ue# in order "o (or and dire!" $u4li! o$inion

in #u$$or" o( #$e!i(i! $oli!y de!i#ion#, "o <anu(a!"ure !on#en"> a# de#!ri4ed 4y lingui#" and

$oli"i!al a!"i'i#" Noa Cho#9y, a9e# under#"anding "he#e $ro!e##e# and any #$iral e((e!"#



S$iral o( Silen!e 11

5i"hin "he o( "reendou# in"ere#" "o "ho#e in any (ield# o( re#ear!h, $ar"i!ularly "ho#e in "he

$oli"i!al #!ien!e# a# 5ell a# $oli"i!al and a## edia !ouni!a"ion+ The 'alue o( !on"rolling

"he (rae o( di#!u##ion in regard# "o $ro$o#ed or ini"ia"ed $oli!ie# in order "o #e!ure $u4li!

#u$$or" or !o$lian!e o( "ho#e $oli!ie# ha# 4een 4orne ou" 4y 'ariou# a'enue# o( re#ear!h,

in!luding "ha" 5hi!h deon#"ra"e# "ha" o#" edia !o'erage o( $oli!y de!i#ion a9ing i#

norally genera"ed 4y <eli"e de4a"e> (ea"uring o((i!ial $o#i"ion# $re#en"ed 4y go'ernen"

o((i!ial# Po5li!9 B Ja", 122D;+ Thi# $ro'i#ion o( a edia $la"(or "o (rae $oli!y

di#!u##ion# and?or $er#$e!"i'e# #er'e# a# an i$or"an" #u$$or" "ool "o go'ernen" $oli!y a9er#

in !rea"ing a !lia"e o( o$inion (a'ora4le "o <anu(a!"uring !on#en"> (or "ho#e $oli!ie# Po5li!9

B Ja", 122D;+ Con'er#ely, 5hen <high8!redi4ili"y> e-$er"# are $re#en"ed de'ia"ing (ro

o((i!ial go'ernen" $o#i"ion#, o((i!ial a""e$"# "o anage $u4li! o$inion 4e!oe in!rea#ingly

$ro4lea"i! Po5li!9 B Ja", 122D;+ Thi# rei"era"e# ho5 "he u#e o( e-$er"# a# e-e$lar# "hough

a'enue# o( edia a# agen"# o( in(luen!e !an ha'e a $ronoun!ed e((e!" on $u4li! o$inion Perry B

%oen4a!h, 3///;+

An e-a$le o( "he 9ind o( in(luen!e edia $la"(or# !an ha'e i# deon#"ra"ed in a #"udy

done in Me-i!o #ho5ing a #$iral o( #ilen!e !ongruen!e 4e"5een "he le'el o( e-$o#ure and

a""en"ion "o a## edia and "he le'el o( 9no5ledge regarding "he a@ori"y o$inion and "he

5illingne## "o #$ea9 ou" in regard# "o "he i##ue in =ue#"ion Neu5ir"h, 3///;+ Ano"her #"udy

on "he e((e!"# o( a## edia and ou"#$o9enne## in Hong Jong during de4a"e# o'er "he !i"y7#

$oli"i!al (u"ure al#o deon#"ra"ed a #$iral o( #ilen!e e((e!", in "ha" $oli"i!ally un!on!erned

re#$onden"# 5ere le## 5illing "o e-$re## o$inion# on "he i##ue i( "hey (el" "ha" "heir 'ie5# did no"

!oin!ide 5i"h "he a@ori"y o$inion a# $er!ei'ed 'ia "he a## edia illna", 122;+ Ano"her

in"ere#"ing a#$e!" o( "ha" #"udy re'ealed ho5 re#$onden"# 5ho #a5 "he#el'e# a# ore

9no5ledgea4le 5ould $er!ei'e "he#el'e# a# 4eing le## $rone "o in(luen!e 4y "he a## edia




"han o"her# illna", 122;+

A rela"ed re#ul" regarding $er!e$"ion# a# "o "he in(luen!e o( edia $re#en"a"ion# on one#el(

a# !o$ared "o "heir e((e!" on o"her# 5a# (ound in a #"udy on $o#" 2811 $er!e$"ion# o( I#la and

"he #$iral o( #ilen!e in 5hi!h re#$onden"# generally (el" "ha" o"her# $er!ei'ed I#la "o 4e le##

$ea!e(ul "han "hey "he#el'e# do, due "o a $re'alen!e o( edia re$or"# highligh"ing I#lai!

e-"rei# around "he 5orld, and "ha" "hey 5ere in!lined "o (ear nega"i'e !on#e=uen!e# (or

e-$re##ing "heir 4elie(# in $u4li! in ligh" o( "ho#e $er!e$"ion# ro5n B el!h, 3//0;+

The le'el o( i$or"an!e o( "he role o( a## edia in a((e!"ing $u4li! o$inion i# one in 5hi!h

ha# 4een !on"inually de4a"ed "hrough e-"en#i'e #"udy and analy#i# o'er "he year#+ Noelle8

Neuann7# #$iral o( #ilen!e "heory 1260;, along 5i"h #u!h !ouni!a"ion "heorie# #u!h a#

agenda #e""ing and %eorge %er4ner7# !ul"i'a"ion "heory, argue (or "he doina"ing e((e!" o( a##

edia u$on "he $u4li!, $ar"i!ularly 4y #er'ing a# a!"i'e agen"# o( $er!e$"ion# o( "heir

en'ironen" and a# #u4#"i"u"e# (or $er#onal re(eren!e grou$# Lyon#, 3//;+ Ho5e'er, 5hile a

$er#on ay (eel "he e((e!"# o( "he #$iral o( #ilen!e in "he (a!e o( "ho#e edia in(luen!e#, ho5

u!h doe# 4eing a e4er o( a re(eren!e grou$ !oun"era!" "ho#e e((e!"# Lyon#, 3//;,

$ar"i!ularly 5hen "ha" re(eren!e grou$ ha# al"erna"i'e (or# o( !ouni!a"ion and o$inion

e-$re##ion a" i"# di#$o#al

Are #$iraling e((e!"#, 5hi!h are $redi!a"ed u$on "he idea "ha" "he $u4li! are $a##i'e

re!ei'er# o( a## di#"ri4u"ed in(ora"ion, o((#e" and e'en !oun"eranded 5hen "he $u4li! i# no

longer #i$ly an anonyou# and $a##i'e audien!e (or edia, 4u" ra"her are a!"i'e and engaged

in "he !ouni!a"ion $ro!e##e#, 5i"h al"erna"i'e e!hani## o( edia !rea"ion and di#"ri4u"ion

in ore hand# o( <re(eren!e grou$#> "o o((#e" "he in(luen!e# o( a## edia a# "ool (or #o!ie"al

eli"e# "o !rea"e !ul"ure# o( !lia"e #ui"a4le "o "heir o5n agenda# and $ur$o#e# Than9# "o "he

ne5 $aradig o( digi"al a## edia !a$a4ili"ie# and e-$anded !ouni!a"ion !a$a!i"ie#, "he#e



S$iral o( Silen!e 1.

re(eren!e grou$# are no5 u!h ore a4le "o 4e 9no5n and addre##a4le ou"#ide "he $redoina"e

(rae de#igned "hrough ore uni(or and e-!lu#i'ely !on"rolled (or# o( edia Lyon#, 3//;+

Thi# ne5 audien!e (or edia i# no5 u!h ore engaged, a!"i'ely $ar"i!i$a"ing in !rea"ing ne5

edia !on"en" and ne5 !ouni"ie# o( !on"en" e-!hange, $ro'iding (or an eerging and

"ran#(ora"ional !ouni!a"ion $henoenon (or 5hi!h !ouni!a"ion "heory #u!h a# "ha" o(

"he #$iral o( #ilen!e; 5ill need "o addre## Lyon#, 3//;+

Poli"i!al !hange in "he Phili$$ine# #er'e# a# a good e-a$le o( "hi# u#e o( al"erna"i'e (or#

o( edia "o !oun"era!" "he #$iral o( #ilen!e e((e!", in "hi# !a#e regarding "he $redoina"e role o(

a## edia in 4eing a4le "o o'er!oe di((eren!e# in $u4li! $er!e$"ion "hrough "he u#e o(

!on#"an" re$e"i"ion o( e##age# and "he doina"ing $re#en!e o( "ho#e e##age# "hrough

!on#olida"ed !on"rol o( a## edia re#our!e#+ In "he Phili$$ine#, in #$i"e o( doina"ing !on"rol

o'er "he a## edia and !on(oring and u4i=ui"ou# e##aging 4y "he Mar!o# go'ernen"

"hrough !on"rolling "ha" edia, an al"erna"i'e edia e##aging #y#"e aro#e, 4roadening "he

!on"e-" in 5hi!h 9ey e'en"# !ould 4e in"er$re"ed and in(luen!ing i$or"an" #egen"# o( "he

audien!e "ha" e'en"ually $ro'ided (or ne5 leader#hi$ %onale, 3//;+ Thi# #hould no" ha'e

"a9en $la!e a!!ording "o #$iral o( #ilen!e "heory, 5hi!h in#i#"# "ha" ain#"rea edia !an

o'er!oe any di((eren!e# in audien!e $er!e$"ion# i( edia !on#onan!e, re$e"i"ion and u4i=ui"y

o( e##age are $re#en" %onale, 3//;+

Aong#" o"her =ue#"ion# "ha" #urround "he role o( a## edia in regard# "o i"# i$a!" u$on

#$iral o( #ilen!e e((e!"#, i# "ha" 5hi!h analye# ho5 $rone edia in#"i"u"ion# and ne5# agen!ie#

are "o a #$iral e((e!" o!!urring 5i"hin #u!h organia"ion# "he#el'e#+ Cer"ain !a#e #"udie# ha'e

#ho5n ho5 ne5# agen!ie# "ha" $rodu!e (or "he a## edia 5ill 5or9 5i"h high le'el# o(

!ongruen!e and re(eren!e "o o"her a## edia Haa#e, 3//D;+ Ne5# agen!ie# $ro'ide "he ain

4ul9 o( e##age $rodu!"ion and e##aging $ro!e##ing in a## !ouni!a"ion, and "he la!9 o(




any $redoinan" in(ora"ion $ro'ider# o$era"ing inde$enden"ly due "o "he in!rea#ing aoun"

o( o5ner#hi$ !on#olida"ion lea'e# "he 'ulnera4le "o in"ernal in(luen!e# 5i"hin and aong#"

"heir organia"ional #"ru!"ure#, re#ul"ing in e'er8de!rea#ing aoun" o( o$inion# guiding and

#ha$ing "ha" e##age !on"en" Ha##e, 3//D;+ hen "he di#"an!e 4e"5een "he ne5# $ro'ider and

"he agenda o( "he organia"ion 5hi!h o5n# i" i# "oo #all and la!9ing di'er#i"y, "ha" ne5#

$ro'ider 4e!oe# li""le ore "han a PR agen!y (or "ho#e o5ner#, and an in"ernal #$iral o( #ilen!e

#e"# in 5i"hin "he organia"ion Ha##e, 3//D;+

The i##ue o( ho5 u!h "he edia i# "ruly a((e!"ing $u4li! o$inion a# o$$o#ed "o ho5 u!h

$u4li! o$inion i# in(luen!ing "he edia i# ano"her =ue#"ion 5hi!h !on"inue# "o in"rigue

re#ear!her#, a #or" o( "ail 5agging "he dog $henoenon in regard# "o "he #$iral o( #ilen!e e((e!"+

E-"en#i'e re#ear!h ha# 4een done on "he role o( ne5#$a$er# in a$an during "he ri#e o( ili"ari#

in "he 12./7#, and "he (ailure o( "he $redoinan" a## edia a" "he "ie "o !hallenge "he

dangerou# $oli!ie# o( "he 5aronger#+ In "ho#e in#"an!e# ne5#$a$er# indulged in !o$e"i"ion in

order "o a$$ear ore $a"rio"i! and e-al" na"ional $ride ore aggre##i'ely in order "o !a"er "o "he

@ingoi#"i! i$ul#e# o( a na"ional audien!e in order "o in!rea#e iedia"e #ale# and !ir!ula"ion

I"o, 3//.;+

One !an (ind a ore odern e-a$le aong#" any o( "hi# e((e!" a" 5or9 in analying

Jorean TV re$or"# on "he 'i#i" o( "he a$ane#e Prie Mini#"er "o Jorea, in 5hi!h "he#e re$or"#

5ere o("en (raed in a 5ay "o (ul(ill audien!e e-$e!"a"ion# and 4ia#e# Johari, 3//6;+ In "he#e

in#"an!e# na"ional edia ou"le"# $ur$o#e(ully dele"ed re(eren!e# "o a$ologie# 4y "he a$ane#e

re$re#en"a"i'e (or har in(li!"ed u$on "he Jorean $eo$le in "he $a#"+ Thi# 5a# done "o !rea"e

!on(ori"y 5i"h "he $re'ailing $o$ular o$inion and na"ional 4ia#e# "ha" a$an reained

re!al!i"ran" (or i"# $a#" a!"ion# Johari, 3//6;+ Perha$# analy#i# o( "hi# 9ind o( e((e!" !ould 4e

done in #"udying ho5 doe#"i! ne5# organia"ion# #u!h a# Fo- Ne5#, (or e-a$le; ay



S$iral o( Silen!e 1

$o##i4ly engage in "he #ae in(ora"ional #ele!"i'i"y in order "o !urry (a'or 5i"h an audien!e

"ha" ay no" 4e $rone "o !oer!ially #u$$or" edia ou"le"# "ha" do no" a((ir "heir o5n

$re'iou#ly held 5orld 'ie5#, !rea"ing a #$iral o( #ilen!e in re'er#e $henoenon 5hen i" !oe# "o

"he role o( "he edia in Noelle8Neuann7# "heore"i!al odel 1260;+

The $oli"i!al i$li!a"ion# o( "he in(luen!e o( edia on #$iral o( #ilen!e e((e!"# are e'iden",

and re#ear!h in "hi# (ield i# $ar"i!ularly in"ere#"ed in analying and $redi!"ing "heir e((e!"# u$on

"he 4eha'ior# o( "he 'o"ing ele!"ora"e+ The rai(i!a"ion# (or $oli"i!al #!ien"i#"# and $oli"i!al

organier#, $oli!y a9er# and o$inion leader# i# ra"her a$$aren" 5hen !on#idering "he 'alue o(

4e""er $ro'iding (or a ore relia4le under#"anding o( #$iral o( #ilen!e "heory a# a $redi!"i'e "ool

in "he#e (ield#+ A nu4er o( #"udie# (o!u#ing on 'o"ing 4eha'ior# ha'e #eeed "o !on(ir "he

$rin!i$le o( "he #$iral "heory+

I" ha# 4een argued "ha" "e#"ing "he e((e!"# o( #$iral 4eha'ior# i# di((i!ul" and ine-a!" 4e!au#e

"he "heory de#!ri4e# #u4!on#!iou# 4eha'ior "ha" !an only !oe "o "he (ore 5hen dealing 5i"h a

orally8loaded and !on"ro'er#ial i##ue 5i"hin a $eriod o( grea" #o!io8$#y!hologi!al $re##ure

Pe"er#en, 3//.;+ I" i# during #u!h "ie# "ha" 'o"ing 4eha'ior# !an $ro'ide a $o"en"ially e((e!"i'e

and reali#"i! 5ay "o a""e$" "o ea#ure "he rele'an!e o( "he "heory Pe"er#en, 3//.;+ The

%eran ele!"ion #ea#on o( 3//3 $ro'ided #u!h an o$$or"uni"y 5hen, a" a "ie o( na"ional

!a"a#"ro$he and !all# (or uni"y in "he (a!e o( "he urgen" $ro4le# 4eing (a!ed, #u$$or"er# o( "he

o$$o#i"ion $ar"y, 5hi!h 5a# ahead in "he $oll# a" "he "ie, 4e!ae in!rea#ingly he#i"an" "o

e-$re## nega"i'e 'ie5# in regard# "o "he ruling $ar"y+ Con'er#ely, #u$$or"er# o( "he go'erning

$ar"y, 5hen #en#ing a ore re!e$"i'e !ul"ure o( o$inion "o5ard# "ho#e in $o5er, 5hi!h in!luded

a $eriod o( $redoina"ely #u$$or"i'e 'ie5# (or "he ruling go'ernen" in "he edia, 4egan "o

#$ea9 ou" ore o$enly in #u$$or" o( "he, 5hi!h !on(ir# "he $rei#e o( "he #$iral o( #ilen!e

hy$o"he#i# Pe"er#en, 3//.;+ Re#ear!h on "he Aeri!an $re#iden"ial ele!"ion o( 120D, in 5hi!h



S$iral o( Silen!e 1

Harry Truan7# re8ele!"ion de(ied all "he $re'ailing o$inion $oll# and $redi!"ion#, $ro'ide#

addi"ional da"a in #u$$or" o( "he #$iral o( #ilen!e "heory, a((iring <Noelle8Neuann7#

#ugge#"ion "ha" #o!ial i#ola"ion i# a##o!ia"ed 5i"h (ear o( i#ola"ion and $ro'ide $ar"ial #u$$or" (or

"he idea "ha" #o!ial i#ola"ion in"era!"# 5i"h (ear o( i#ola"ion in "he #$iral o( #ilen!e e((e!"> %lynn,

Ji B O#"an, 3//1;+

S"udie# in Jorea u#ing an e-a!" re$li!a"ion o( Noelle8Neuann7# 5or9 4u" aong#" !ro##8

!ul"ural ground# ea#uring 'o"ing 4eha'ior# 5i"h $er!e$"ion# o( "he !lia"e o( o$inion, al#o

(o!u#ed on "he role o( "he edia, ho5 indi'idual# in #o!ie"y a9e u#e o( i", i"# e((e!" u$on

$eo$le7# 4eha'ior# and a""i"ude#, and e#$e!ially i"# e((e!" u$on #5ing 'o"er 4eha'ior a" "he la#"

inu"e Chang, 3//0;+ Though rai#ing !er"ain =ue#"ion# in regard# "o "he "heory, "he (inding#

5ere (ound "o 4e generally in a!!ordan!e 5i"h "he underlying $rei#e o( "he #$iral o( #ilen!e+

Su$$or" 5a# (ound (or "he "heory7# no"ion o( a <!lia"e o( o$inion> in !rea"ing a <4and5agon>

e((e!" (or la#" inu"e #5ing 'o"er# "o #u$$or" 5ho "hey $er!ei'e i# "he $re'ailing !andida"e, a#

5ell a# "he "heory7# $rei#e "ha" "ho#e 5ho $er!ei'e $u4li! #u$$or" (or "heir $o#i"ion are ore

a$" "o e-$re## "ho#e o$inion# o$enly Chang, 3//0;+ Thi# ani(e#"# in !rea"ing #oe #ur$ri#e

re#ul"# de(ying $re'iou# o$inion $oll#, in 5hi!h !a#e# "ho#e 5ho did no" #hare "he $er!ei'ed

$re'ailing o$inion 5ere le## li9ely "o 'o!alie "he in ad'an!e, a# li9e "ha" 5hi!h o!!urred in

#u!h in#"an!e# a# "he %eran ele!"ion# o( 12 and "he a(oreen"ioned (aou# Harry Truan

$re#iden"ial 'i!"ory, Chang, 3//0;+

One #"udy on "he ri"i#h general ele!"ion o( 3// (ound "ha" o( all $olling #er'i!e# and

e"hodologie# u"ilied, online $olling deon#"ra"ed "he o#" !on#i#"en"ly a!!ura"e $redi!"or o(

ele!"oral 4eha'ior %un"er, 3//;+ Condu!"ing ore $oll# "han any o"her $oll#"er, "he online

$oll#"er Kou%o' deon#"ra"ed 'ery li""le 'aria"ion 4e"5een e-$re##ed in"en"ion "o 'o"e 5i"h

a!"ual re#ul"#, and doing #o o'er a longer $eriod o( "ie "han any o"her $olling $ro!e## %un"er,




3//;+ Thi# i# in"ere#"ing in "ha" $oll#"er# ha'e o("en 4een !au"iou# a4ou" "he a!!ura!y o( online

$olling, ye" $erha$# i( a #$iral o( #ilen!e e((e!" i# indeed a real $henoenon, online

e"hodologie# ay $ro'ide $eo$le 5i"h "he a'enue "o ore hone#"ly e-$re## "heir o$inion#,

$ar"i!ularly i( "hey do no" !orre#$ond 5i"h a $er!ei'ed a@ori"y, 5i"hou" (eeling in"iida"ed 4y

"he (ear o( #o!ial o#"ra!i# and i#ola"ion or $o"en"ially !hallenged "o de(end or e-$lain "heir

$oin" o( 'ie5 5hen $ro'iding i" in a ore in"era!"i'e and?or $u4li! en'ironen"+

A# "he 5ide 4read"h o( re#ear!h rela"ing "o #$iral o( #ilen!e "heory deon#"ra"e#, "he #o!ial

and $oli"i!al i$or"an!e o( i" and "he i$a!"# o( "he $henoenon "ha" i" #ee9# "o e-$lain !an 4e

e-"en#i'e+ Ho5e'er, "he (ull 5eigh" o( "he i$or"an!e o( under#"anding "he "heory, i"#

rai(i!a"ion# on $oli!y a9ing, and "he role o( "he edia in #ha$ing and leading $u4li! o$inion

in ena4ling "ho#e $oli!ie# "o 4e ena!"ed 4e!oe# !learly a$$aren" 5hen !on(ron"ing i"# i$a!" on

#u!h li(e and dea"h de!i#ion# a# 5ar+ A 4ody o( re#ear!h, $ar"i!ularly in regard# "o "he role o(

edia e((e!"# on !rea"ing a #$iral o( #ilen!e 5hen !on(ron"ing "he#e (undaen"ally i$or"an"

i##ue#, !on"inue# "o 4e $ur#ued+

A #"udy on "he e-"en" o( "he u"ilia"ion o( $riing and (raing "e!hni=ue# in re$or"ing on "he

5ar in Ira= in 3//. #ho5ed e'iden!e "ha" "he edia lo!a"ed in !oali"ion na"ion# engaged in "he

in'a#ion in!rea#ingly (raed in(ora"ion and $er#$e!"i'e# on "he 5ar in 5ay# #u$$or"ing "he

a!"ion, 5hile arginaliing 'ie5$oin"# !oun"er "o i", deon#"ra"ing a #$iral o( #ilen!e e((e!" a"

5or9 in "he edia !o'erage o( e'en"# !on!erning "he 5ar el!h, Ca$4ell, Fo#"er B Alley,

n+d+;+ Co$ara"i'e re#ul"# (or edia (ro non8!oali"ion na"ion# in "he Middle Ea#" #ho5ed "he

#ae in!rea#ing "enden!ie# "o5ard# (raing "he $re#en"a"ion o( "he 5ar, 4u" in a 5ay nega"i'e "o

"he a!"ion+ In ea!h $arallel !a#e, inori"y e-$re##ed 'ie5# in !oali"ion na"ion# and $ro85ar

$ro"e#"er# in non8!oali"ion na"ion# 5ere 4o"h in!rea#ingly #ilen!ed in "he edia a# "he 5ar

!o'erage 4e!ae ore e-"en#i'e el!h e" al+ n+d+;+



S$iral o( Silen!e 1D

In !er"ain !a#e#, "he arginalia"ion and #ilen!ing o( o$$o#ing 'ie5# "o "he 5ar 5a# 4la"an",

#u!h a# 5i"h MSNC7# !an!eling Phil )onahue7# highly8ra"ed "al9 #ho5 (or i"# airing o( an"i8

5ar 'ie5# during "he run u$ "o "he in'a#ion o( Ira=, and "he e-"en#i'e edia 4oy!o""ing o(

Na"alie Maine# and her 4and "he )i-ie Chi!9# (or "heir $u4li! e-$re##ion o( #hae and

di#a$$ro'al o( "he u#h adini#"ra"ion agenda (or 5ar in Ira= San"a Cru ell, 3//;+ <On!e i"

#eeed "ha" a a@ori"y o( &+S+ !i"ien# 5ere in #u$$or" o( going "o 5ar, ain#"rea edia

ou"le"# narro5ed "he de4a"e a4ou" u#h and "he de!i#ion (or a $ree$"i'e #"ri9e on Ira= 4y

u"ing or de'aluing di'ergen" 'oi!e# and (raing "he a# un$a"rio"i!, radi!al, and no"

#u$$or"i'e o( "he !oun"ry or &+S+ "roo$#> San"a Cru ell, 3//;+ Su!h e-a$le# o( "he edia

do5n$laying or #u$$re##ing #$e!i(i! $oin"# o( 'ie5 in order "o !a"er "o 5ha" i# $er!ei'ed a# "he

a@ori"y o$inion, 5he"her #u!h a!"ion# are 4eing "a9en "o !rea"e a #$e!i(i! !lia"e o( o$inion or

"o #er'e i", are reini#!en" o( "he a(oreen"ioned #"udie# on Jorean edia and on a$ane#e

ne5#$a$er# during "he $eriod $re!eding "he Se!ond orld ar+

A re#ear!h #"udy on !o$aring $er!ei'ed o$inion 'er#u# a!"ual $u4li! o$inion in "he &+S+

during "he $eriod o( "he (ir#" Per#ian %ul( ar in 122/821 #ho5# "ha" a!"ual #u$$or" (or "he 5ar

5a# no" nearly a" "he le'el o( "he #"rong !on#en#u# "ha" i" 5a# 4eing $or"rayed "o 4e in "he

ain#"rea edia E'eland, r+, M!Leod B Signorielli, 3//;+ herea# only + o( "he

re#$onden"# de!lared #"rong #u$$or" (or "he 5ar $er#onally, any ore re#$onded 5i"h "he

i$re##ion "ha" o'erall $u4li! #u$$or" (or i" 5a# a" le'el# u!h grea"er "han "hey "he#el'e# (el",

5hi!h i# a $henoenon !ongruen" 5i"h "he $rei#e o( "he #$iral o( #ilen!e "heory, in "ha" $eo$le

5ill no" 4e a# 5illing "o e-$re## "heir 'ie5# o$enly i( "hey 4elie'e i" i# no" an a!!e$"ed and

#hared 'ie5 4y "he $er!ei'ed a@ori"y E'eland, r+ e" al+, 3//;+

A S5edi#h #"udy on (raing !o$aring ho5 in(ora"ion on "he Ira= 5ar 5a# 4eing

$re#en"ed 4e"5een "5o eli"e ne5# #our!e#, "he Aeri!an New York Times and "he S5edi#h




$a$er Dagens Nyheter, (ound #"a"i#"i!ally #igni(i!an" di((eren!e# in "he "hea"i! "one and na"ure

o( "he le'el o( e-$re##ed #u$$or" (or "he in'a#ion 4eing $re#en"ed in "he, a# 5ell a# "he 'olue

o( o((i!ial go'ernen" #our!e# in!luded and "he e-"en" o( di'ergen" 'ie5$oin"# in o$$o#i"ion "o

"ho#e #our!e# )ii"ro'a B S"ro4a!9, 3//;+ Su!h e'iden!e !an #er'e "o $ro'ide grea"er

in#igh" in"o ho5 $u4li! o$inion i# #ha$ed 4y "he edia, and ho5 one8#ided !o'erage ay

(un!"ion "o $ro'ide en'ironen"al !lue# a# "o 5hi!h 'ie5$oin"# are !on#idered 'alid and

a!!e$"a4le, $o"en"ially "riggering a #$iral o( #ilen!e+

O((#e""ing "he $o"en"ially nega"i'e and !on#"ri!"ing in(luen!e o( "hi# 9ind o( eli"e edia i##ue

(raing i# "he e-$anding a'aila4ili"y and a!!e##i4ili"y o( ore in(ora"ion re#our!e# 'ia ore

a'enue# o( edia"ed !ouni!a"ion+ erenger7# #"udy 3//0; on in(ora"ion (raing o( "he Ira=

ar and under#"anding and i$ro'ing ne5# !o'erage o( and in "he Midea#", highligh"# "he

i$or"an" rai(i!a"ion# o( "he !hange# "a9ing $la!e in regard# "o "hi# i##ue, de"ailing ho5

<in(ora"ion (or "he (ir#" "ie 5a# a'aila4le "o all audien!e# in"ere#"ed in "he !on(li!", and in "he

language# o( "he !o4a"an"#+ Ara4 edia "o a large e-"en" !o$e"ed 5i"h "he#el'e# glo4ally

ra"her "han @u#" regionally+ Ara4 audien!e# !ould 5eigh (or "he#el'e# 5hi!h Ara4 or e'en

e#"ern #a"elli"e !hannel 5a# ore "ru#"5or"hy and de$enda4le, 5hi!h 5a# "he ore !redi4le>

erenger, 3//0;+ Thi# i# an i$or"an" e-a$le o( "he 9ind# o( de'elo$en"# 5i"hin edia"ed

!ouni!a"ion $ro!e##e# 5hi!h are ne!e##ary "o o((#e" "he $o"en"ially de4ili"a"ing and

de#"ru!"i'e !on#e=uen!e# o( #$iral o( #ilen!e e((e!"# ani(e#"ing 5i"hin a #o!ie"y, and 5hy #$iral

o( #ilen!e and (rae "heory re#ear!h <i# an e-!ellen" "ool (or #!holar# "o a##e## ho5 "he $rin" and

4road!a#" edia are doing "heir @o4# and ho5 audien!e# are re!ei'ing and in"ernaliing "he

e##age# edia #end> erenger, 3//0;+

In !on!lu#ion, i( "here i# any"hing "o 4e learned (ro "he !urren" re#ear!h a'aila4le

$er"aining "o "he !au#e# and i$li!a"ion# o( "he #$iral o( #ilen!e e((e!", i" i# "ha" (ur"her



S$iral o( Silen!e 3/

ela4ora"ion i# needed "o a!!oun" (or "he 5ide 'arie"y o( in(luen!e# 5hi!h !an a((e!" $eo$le7#

5illingne## "o e-$re## o$inion# o$enly and hone#"ly in $u4li! #e""ing#+ I( "he $henoenon o( "he

#$iral o( #ilen!e i# real, and "he !urren" re#ear!h "end# "o #ugge#" "ha" i" i#, "hen i" i# e#$e!ially

i$or"an" "ha" "ho#e (a!"or# 4e ore "horoughly under#"ood and a!!ooda"ed (or 5i"hin a

gi'en #o!ie"y+ Thi# under#"anding i# needed in order "o !o$en#a"e (or and o((#e" "he $o"en"ially

de4ili"a"ing and de#"ru!"i'e e((e!"# #u!h #$iral# !an ha'e on "he heal"h and #ur'i'a4ili"y o( "ha"

#o!ie"y, $ar"i!ularly one "ha" a#$ire# "o (ul(illing "he $rin!i$le# o( deo!ra"i! #el(8go'ernan!e+

The rai(i!a"ion# o( #$iral e((e!"# holding #5ay are in!o$a"i4le 5i"h e((e!"i'ely organiing and

ain"aining deo!ra"i! #y#"e# o( go'ernan!e, and "he hi#"ori!al e'iden!e o( "he li(e and dea"h

!on#e=uen!e# o( "he#e e((e!"# ani(e#"ing ha# o("en 4een di#"ur4ingly !lear+ Fur"her re#ear!h in

"hi# (ield !an $ro'ide u#e(ul in(ora"ion in "he ongoing e((or"# "o5ard# 4e""er under#"anding

edia"ed #y#"e# o( !ouni!a"ion 5i"hin #o!ie"y, #hedding (ur"her ligh" u$on "he i$or"an!e

o( $ro'iding and $ro"e!"ing "he in a 5ay "o en#ure "ha" "ho#e #o!ie"al !ouni!a"ion $ro!e##e#,

$ar"i!ularly "ho#e u"ilied in and (or "he $oli"i!al real, do no" (all $rey "o "he in(luen!e o( "he

#$iral o( #ilen!e+




i4liogra$hy

A#!h, S+ E+ 12;+ O$inion# and #o!ial $re##ure+ Scientific American, 19; , .18.

erenger, R+)+ 3//0;+ %ul( 5ar (allou": A "heore"i!al a$$roa!h "o under#"and and i$ro'e

edia !o'erage o( "he iddle ea#"+ !lo"al #e$ia %ournal, ;+ Re"rie'ed (roh""$:??la##+$urdue!al+edu?!!a?g@?(a/0?g@8(a/084erenger+h"

o5en, F+ B la!9on, J+ 3//.;+ S$iral# o( #ilen!e: The dynai! e((e!"# o( di'er#i"y onorgania"ional 'oi!e+ %ournal of #anagement Stu$ies, &'( ;, 1.2.81016+

ro5n, ++ B el!h, S+R+ 3//0;+ Po#"8Se$"e4er 11 "h $er!e$"ion# o( I#la and "he #$iral o(#ilen!e+ )aper presente$ at the annual meeting of the *nternational +ommunication Association,

New rleans Sheraton, New rleans, -A nline, #ay .(, .''&+ Re"rie'ed No'e4er 12, 3//D

(ro h""$:??555+alla!adei!+!o?e"a?$11326inde-+h"l

Chang, + 3//0;+ The #$iral o( #ilen!e, Vo"ing de!i#ion and edia u#e+ )aper presente$ at the

annual meeting of the *nternational +ommunication Association, New rleans Sheraton, New

rleans, -A/ #ay .(, .''0 + Re"rie'ed (ro

h""$:??555+alla!adei!+!o?e"a?$11.0/.inde-+h"l

Clar9, S+H+ 3//;+ The o$inion hard !ore: Re(ining "he #$iral o( #ilen!e "heore"i!ally+ )aper presente$ at the annual meeting of the #i$west )olitical Science Association, +hicago, *llinois,

April .', .''0 + Re"rie'ed (ro h""$:??555+alla!adei!+!o?e"a?$101102inde-+h"l

)ii"ro'a, )+ B S"ro4a!9, + 3//;+ Mi##ion A!!o$li#hed Fraing o( "he Ira= ar in "he

Eli"e Ne5#$a$er# in S5eden and "he &ni"ed S"a"e#+ !aette2 The *nternational %ournal 3or

+ommunication Stu$ies, 0( ;, .228016+ Re"rie'ed (ro

h""$:??danielad+@l!+ia#"a"e+edu?do!#?i##iongae""e+$d(

E'eland, r, +P+, M!Leod, )+M+ B Signorielli, N+ 122;+ A!"ual and $er!ei'ed &+S+ $u4li!o$inion: The #$iral o( #ilen!e during "he Per#ian %ul( ar+ *nternational %ournal of )u"licpinion 4esearch, ( 3;, 2181/2+

%onale, H+ 3//;+ Ma## edia and "he #$iral o( #ilen!e: The Phili$$ine# (ro Mar!o# "oA=uino+ %ournal of +ommunication, 50; , ..80D+

%un"er, + 3//;+ Ho5 did "he $oll# $er(or in "he 3// &J general ele!"ion Discussion

)aper in #ass +ommunications 6n7line8, niversity of -eicester, #ay .'':+ Re"rie'ed

No'e4er 12, 3//D (ro h""$:??555+le+a!+u9?!?re#ear!h?$a$er#?!/81+$d(

Haa#e, F+ 3//D;+ <Frae# "o "he ne5#> and #$iral# o( #ilen!e>: In"erna"ional !a#e #"udie# o(linear o'een" and !ir!ula"ion o( ne5# 4e"5een ne5# agen!ie#, a## edia ou"le"#, and

in"ere#" grou$# a# "heir (rae5or9+ r"is2 4evista +ientifica ;lectronica $e +iencias

<umanas=Scientific e7>ournal of <uman Science, .''5+ Re"rie'ed (roh""$:??555+re'i#"aor4i#+org+'e?1/?Ar"3+$d(




Hau(ler, A+ 3//6;+ The #anagement ?orker !ap2 4easons an$ *mpact of silent upwar$ $issenton the @uality of Superior7Su"or$inate 4elationships $uring rganiational +hange+ Re"rie'ed

No'e4er 16, 3//D (ro h""$:??da"a0+4log+de?edia?1D?1621D/D./!e3dd+$d(

Haye#, A+F+ 3//6;+ E-$loring "he (or# o( #el(8!en#or#hi$: On "he #$iral o( #ilen!e and "he u#e

o( o$inion e-$re##ion a'oidan!e #"ra"egie#+ %ournal of +ommunication, :( 1D;, 6D8D/3+

I"o, K+ 3//.;+ The in(luen!e o( hi#"ori!al e-$erien!e# on "he a$ane#e $oli"i!al !ouni!a"ionre#ear!h+ eto +ommunication 4eview, .:, 82+ Re"rie'ed (ro

h""$:??555+edia!o+9eio+a!+@$?$u4li!a"ion?$d(3//.?re'ie53?3+$d(

e((re#, L++, Neuendor(, J+A+ B A"9in, )+ 1222;+ S$iral o( #ilen!e#: E-$re##ing o$inion# 5hen

"he !lia"e o( o$inion i# una4iguou#+ )olitical +ommunication, 10 3; , 1181.1+

Johari, S+ 3//6;+ Jorean TV $rograing and a$an8ROJ rela"ion#+ 10 th %A#+ nline

*nternational Symposium, %anuary to #arch .''5+ Re"rie'ed (ro

h""$:??555+@a!o+or+@$?3//#y$o#iu?en?//?inde-+h"l

Lyon#, +J+ 3//;+ Media glo4alia"ion and i"# e((e!" u$on in"erna"ional !ouni"ie#: #ee9ing a!ouni!a"ion "heory $er#$e!"i'e+ !lo"al #e$ia %ournal, &6;+ Re"rie'ed (ro

h""$:??la##+!alue"+$urdue+edu?!!a?g@?(a/?g@8(a/8lyon#+h"

M!)onald, )+%+, %lynn, C++, Ji, S+ B O#"an, R+E+ 3//1;+ The #$iral o( #ilen!e in "he 120D

$re#iden"ial ele!"ion+ +ommunication 4esearch, .53; , 1.281+

Neu5ir"h, J+ 3///;+ Te#"ing "he #$iral o( #ilen!e odel: The !a#e o( Me-i!o+ *nternational

%ournal of )u"lic pinion 4esearch, 1.3; , 1.D812+

Noelle8Nueann, E+ 1260;+ The #$iral o( #ilen!e: A "heory o( $u4li! o$inion+ %ournal of

+ommunication, .&/ 0.81+

Par9er, E+ 3//0;+ A #$iral o( #ilen!e analy#i# o( 4io"e!hnology o$inion in "he &+S+ )aper

presente$ at Association for ;$ucation in %ournalism an$ #ass +ommunication, Toronto,

+ana$a, August .''&+ Re"rie'ed (ro h""$#:??1#3+!i!h+edu?!gi84in?5aA3AEMC@E0A3//011121300/08///

Perlo5, L+ B illia#, S+ 3//.;+ I# #ilen!e 9illing your !o$any <arvar$ Business 4eview, #ay .'' *ssue, .86+

Perry, S+)+ 122;+ Crea"ing a #$iral o( #ilen!e "hrough di#$ro$or"iona"e e-e$lar di#"ri4u"ion:

)oe# i" 5or9 )aper presente$ at Annual #eeting of the Broa$cast ;$ucation Association, &1 st

, -as Cegas, NC, April 1.71:, 1990, .83+ Re"rie'ed (ro

h""$:??eri!+ed+go':D/?ERICe4Por"al?Hoe+$or"al

n($4"rueBERICE-"Sear!hSear!hValue/PerryQE-e$larB#ear!h"y$e4a#i!BERICE-"Sear!hSear!hTy$e/95B$ageLa4elRe!ord)e"ail#Bo4@e!"Id/2///124D//aaa//Ba!!noE)

.2.0Bn(l#(al#e

S$iral o( Silen!e 3.



Perry, S+)+ B %onen4a!h, ++ 3///;+ Inhi4i"ing #$ee!h "hrough e-e$lar di#"ri4u"ion: Can5e $redi!" a #$iral o( #ilen!e %ournal of Broa$casting an$ ;lectronic #e$ia, Spring .''', 182+

Re"rie'ed (ro h""$:??(indar"i!le#+!o?$?ar"i!le#?iD.?i#?ain3/3206

Pe"er#on, T+ 3//.;+ A #$iral o( #ilen!e in "he 3//3 %eran (ederal ele!"ion# and "he role o(

$u4li! o$inion re#ear!h in o$inion (ora"ion in ele!"ion !a$aign#+ )aper presente$ at the

annual meeting of the American Association for )u"lic pinion 4esearch, Sheraton #usic +ity,

Nashville, TN, August 10, .''+ Re"rie'ed (roh""$:??555+alla!adei!+!o?e"a?$11313inde-+h"l

Po5li!9,, P++ B Ja", A++ 122D;+ )e(ining "he Aeri!an $u4li! o$inion?(oreign $oli!y ne-u#+The *nternational Stu$ies 4eview, &.1; , 3281+

Salon, C+T+ B Neu5ir"h, J+ 12D6;+ A ul"i'aria"e "e#" o( "he #$iral o( #ilen!e hy$o"he#i#+ )aper presente$ at the Annual #eeting of the Association for ;$ucation in %ournalism an$ #ass

+ommunication, ('th , San Antonio, T, August 17&, 195( , .812+

San"a Crue ell, + 3//;+ Ma## edia, u"ed 'oi!e#, and "he !a#e o( "he di-ie !hi!9#+ !lo"al

#e$ia %ournal + Re"rie'ed (roh""$:??la##+!alue"+$urdue+edu?!!a?g@?edi"ion#?aeri!an?dialogue?4ell+h"

illna", L+ 122;+ Ma## edia and $oli"i!al ou"#$o9enne## in Hong Jong: Lin9ing "he "hird8

$er#on e((e!" and "he #$iral o( #ilen!e+ *nternational %ournal of )u"lic pinion 4esearch, 53; ,

1D68313+

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