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School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure & Society ~160 academics, ~200 researchers
Institute for Infrastructure & Environment
Institute of Petroleum Engineering
Institute for Social Policy, Housing, Environment & Real Estate
Royal Academy of EngineeringCentre of Excellence in Sustainable Building Design
Urban Energy Research Group (~20 people)
Urban Energy Research Group Tarbase (EPSRC/Carbon Trust) Low carbon futures (EPSRC ARCC) Historic and traditional buildings (Historic Scotland + PhD) Concrete to Cookers (EPSRC) Measures for solid wall dwellings - CALEBRE (RCUK/E.on) Adaptation and resilience in energy systems (EPSRC ARCC) Office buildings – refurbishment and LCA (PhDs) Schools and factories – energy utilisation (PhDs) Wind farms – community involvement (PhD) Fuel poverty and refurbishment campaigns (NESTA) Whole life analysis of building components (RAEng)
Total funding of £4m since 2004, 150 research publications.
Research methods Building performance modelling and energy
monitoring Life Cycle Assessment System integration Economic methods - whole life costing Qualitative methods – interviews, surveys,
questionnaires, focus groups
Low-carbon refurbishment and new-build in future climates19th November 2014
Dr David Jenkins [email protected]
Project example 1 - TARBASE
Carbon Trust/EPSRC Carbon Vision Buildings Programme
Consortium project £1.4M Technologies to reduce carbon
emissions of the existing building stock by 50-80%
Retrofit packages costed and user acceptance analysis carried out
“Tarbase Domestic Model” produced for low-carbon retrofits
Project example 1 - TARBASE
Education buildings have specific issues Migrating towards an “office” type environment Has implications on building services and activity Considerable change to what we think of as a
“school” building in last decade
16.5m
18m
15m
19m
28m 28m
14m
12m
10m
40m
26m
9m 8m
6m
7m
4.5m
4m5m
Teaching spaceStaffAssemblyChanging roomSports hallWCStorageDining/SocialCirculation area
Birmingham
10,000m2 Total Floor Area
1,250 pupils
Schools – Case study
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 baseline 2005 + equip/lightinterventions
+ 2030 climate + fabric interventionsand cond. boiler
An
nu
al C
O2 e
mis
sio
ns
(kg
CO
2/m
2)
Cooking (gas)Cooking (elec)Hot waterFans and PumpsHeatingLightingSmall power
50% saving
80% saving
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 baseline 2030 demand scenario + SHW + PV + wind turbines (lowwind), no PV
+ wind turbines (highwind), no PV
+ wind turbines (lowwind) + PV
An
nu
al C
O2
Em
issi
on
s (
kgC
O2/
m2 )
Electric Gas
50% saving
Demand-side measures Supply-side measures
80% saving
Wind = 1 x 20kW
PV = 54kW
0
5
10
15
20
25
Secondary School Edinburgh Secondary School London
% o
f o
ccu
pie
d h
ou
rs t
hat
tea
chin
g a
rea
exce
eds
28d
egC
2030 scenario
With shading
With increased ventilation
BB87
CIBSE A
But for a building without a cooling system...
With our low-carbon retrofit
But this is all modelled
Energy performance modelling is useful but it must be used appropriately
The intention is to point the designer in the right direction
But we are beholden to the models to some extent...
JLL/BBP “A Tale of Two Buildings” (2012)
Are we producing lower energy buildings or lower energy certificates?
Project example 2 – Low Carbon Futures EPSRC £624k Part of ARCC programme using
latest climate projections Model-based risk analysis of building
failure due to climate change Overheating Cooling loads Heating/cooling systems
Tool produced that emulates 1000s of building simulations from a single simulation
LCF Objectives overview
How can building simulation use the latest UK Climate Projection (UKCP’09) database?
How can this be used for designing adaptations for buildings in the future?
How can all the above be incorporated into a method that is useful for industry for overheating analyses? And, by association, other types of building analysis
(e.g. heating/cooling loads)
Practitioner feedback
In parallel to modelling work, industry feedback was obtained at various stages of the work Interviews Questionnaires Focus Groups
Used to investigate: Type of overheating analysis currently carried out Is “probability” a useful concept in overheating? Does the LCF tool have an end use?
Use of DSM for calibration
Simplify climate input
UKCP09
Probabilistic overheating regression analysis
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 5 10 15 20
Prob
abili
ty o
f occ
uren
ce
% of occupied hours > 28°C
Current climate Med emission, 2030 Med emission, 2050 Med emission, 2080
Overheating threshold
No Adaptation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 5 10 15 20
Prob
abili
ty o
f occ
uren
ce
% of occupied hours > 28°C
Current climate Med emission, 2030 Med emission, 2050 Med emission, 2080With Adaptation
Simplifying output
% chance of failure80-10060-8040-6020-400-20
NA AD1 AD2 AD3
2080, High2080, Medium
2080, Low2050, High
Current climate
2050, Medium2050, Low2030, High
2030, Medium2030, Low
What we have learnt....
A modelled building is not real Don’t place complete trust in an EPC
A low-carbon building must be adapted for a future climate And having a consistent method for practitioners is
important But do not underestimate the required action for
retrofitting such buildings to a low-carbon standard
For non-domestic buildings, internal activity is key to overall energy performance
