UQ Annual Report on Queensland’s Gasfields Communities · 9 UQ-CCSG Centre for Coal Seam Gas Population 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 Chinchilla 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 Dalby

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Centre for Coal Seam Gas

What happens when coal seam gas comes to town?

UQ Annual Report on Queensland’s Gasfields Communities

Dr Katherine Witt, Simone Elias

21 June 2018

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Context: Growing demand for natural gas as energy source

… particularly in the Asia Pacific region

http://dolcera.com/wiki/images/Global_Natural_gas_demand_prediction_by_EIA.jpg

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Coal Seam Gas in Queensland & Australia…

https://www.dnrm.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/345616/uwir-surat-basin-2016.pdfhttps://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-112/issue-5/special-report-offshore-petroleum-operations/australia-emerging-as-top-lng-supplier.html

… part of the energy mix

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What CSG development looks like…

http://www.probuildcivil.com.au/our-expertise/roadworks

http://www.abc.net.au/site-archive/rural/content/2011/s3322318.htm

http://www.rmaeng.com.au/projects/retail-commercial

http://www.water-technology.net/projects/-qgc-kenya-water-treatment-plant-queensland/

http://www.colelawson.com.au

evacuationgrounds.blogspot.com

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Purpose

To identify and assess cumulative social and

economic effects of coal seam gas development

(so they can be better managed)

Approach

Novel - draws on complex systems theory, shared

measurement, blends qualitative with quantitative

analysis.

Our research

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2017 Annual Report on Gasfields Communities

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Town level indicators

Theme

PopulationPopulation, Non-resident

worker populatione.g. Pop. by age

Housing House prices, Rents e.g. Bldg approvals

Employment & Income

Unemployment rates, Average income, Average

wagee.g. By industry

Community Wellbeing & Safety

Selected crime rates, Traffic offences e.g. Opinion survey

Education & Skills Training completions e.g. Student turnover

Other influences Rainfall, Petrol prices e.g. Cattle prices

Business Business income e.g. Entries & exits

Health Air quality e.g. Hospital records

Agriculture Productivity, Profitability e.g. Weeds &pests

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Phase 1: Systems view

http://webeyedea.info/studentwork-10-11/2-box-project/alena/pages/vans_and_lorries.htmlUQ-CCSG


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Population

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000Chinchilla

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000Dalby

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800Miles

0

200

400

600

800

1,000Wandoan

Residents Non-resident workers

Chinchilla and Dalby not in ‘rural decline’

Increases seen in youth populations from 2011, down again in 2016

‘Fluoro workshirts’

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Workshirts and social identity???

https://farmers.org.au/news-updates/nff-news/Sea-of-green-engulfs-Australia-as-QLD-fights-unjust-native-veg-laws.html

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Chinchilla

Miles-Wandoan

Tara

Dalby

Queensland

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Un

emp

loym

ent

rate

(%

)

Unemployment• Skills shortages- employers

struggle to maintain and

recruit employees

• Wages go up as

competition for labour

increases

• Innovative ‘loyalty

packages’, .e.g. handyman

• Increasing since CSG

construction ended

• In-migration?

Employment

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• Average personal incomes

rose during construction

period

• For taxable and non-

taxable individuals

• Greater diversity in average

incomes

Chinchilla

Miles

Wandoan

Tara

DalbyQLD

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

Average taxable income(taxable individuals)

Incomes

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Chinchilla

Miles-Wandoan

Tara

Dalby

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Pri

ce (

$A

U)

House values(Median sale price)

Housing

• Chinchilla & Miles

experienced biggest

housing market “shocks”

• Sale values perceived to be

depressed

• Recent upward trend in

number of sales – values

may now start to rise

• Anecdotal evidence:

– Mortgage > property value;

can’t sell

– Consortiums buying rural

land earmarked for CSG

wells (aiming to benefit

from CCA payments).

Potential to inflate

agricultural land prices.

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Chinchilla

Miles-Wandoan

Tara

Dalby

Queensland

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Pri

ce (

$A

U)

Rent(Median weekly; 3-bed)

Housing

• Rents are stabilising – low

vacancy rates, some rental

increase

• Low rents have attracted

low income families into

towns

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Housing

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

No

. of

resi

den

tial

ap

pro

vals

Pri

ce (

$A

U)

House values cf. residential building approvals

Chinchilla

Miles-Wandoan

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Housing

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Bu

ildin

g ap

pro

vals

Ren

t ($

)/N

um

ber

of

NR

Ws

NRWs + Das + Rent for Miles/Wandoan

Residential building approvals (No.) Non-resident workers population

3 bed median rent ($/week)

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Chinchilla

Miles

Wandoan

Tara

Dalby

Queensland

0

50

100

150

200

No

. of

off

ence

s p

er 1

,00

0 p

erso

ns

per

yea

r

Crime

• Drugs (ice) & juvenile crime are the key crime issues (both stats & community perceptions)

• Wandoan the only town that has not seen substantial increase in crime (others >60% since 2013)

• Increases attributed to:

– Increased disposable incomes and drug availability

– Influx of low income individuals

– Increased domestic violence

– More proactive police enforcement

• High concern regarding drugs

• Community acknowledges that drugs are increasing everywhere

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Cumulative effects?

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

No

. of

Off

ence

s

Good Order OffencesChinchilla

0

50

100

150

200

250

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Other theft

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Weapons Offences

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

DVO Breaches

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CSG is not like mining

ChinchillaRomaMoranbah

Dalby

QLD

Dysart

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Pri

ce (

$A

U)

Rent(Median weekly; 3-bed)

Chinchilla

Roma

Moranbah

Dysart

DalbyQLD

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

Average taxable income(taxable individuals)

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Business counts by sector, by employment and by turnover…

From 2009 - 2017 (ABS):

23% in businesses with turnover $0-50K (but more cons, F&I.)

25% in businesses with turnover $50-100K(retail)

3% in businesses with turnover $100-200K (other, F&I, trans, retail)

9% in businesses with turnover $200-500K (hiring, accom, cons)

40% in businesses with turnover $500K-2M (ag, trans)

62.5% in businesses with turnover $2M. (ag, but cons, retail )

33% increase in numbers of larger employers (20-199).

22% increases in sole operators

8% increase in small employers (1-4), but 6% decrease in medium (5-19).

Business capability- Miles

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Business capability- perceptions (Miles)

• Community views on changed capabilities are divided.

• Some feel that business and community capabilities have been either unaffected or

diminished by CSG development in the area. Others suggest that some individuals and

business skills have grown (e.g. negotiation skills, safety)

• Improved capability through steady income stream to agricultural sector (CSG

compensation money), better mobile phone and internet coverage, better roads.

• NRWs boosted volunteering capacity in the Miles community through event assistance

and fundraising. The absence of these volunteers has been a loss to community groups.

• Those businesses that endured through the “bust” are now better equipped to exploit

future opportunities, as they were forced to upgrade to best practice systems and

processes, and have generally upskilled in interacting with large companies.

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Measuring social impacts... facts and perceptions

Roma postcard c1962 Source: Queensland Historical Atlas 2013http://www.qhatlas.com.au/frack-or-frack-off-coal-seam-gas

Posted by Mark Anning on Knitting Nannas twitter feed November 2016Source: Knitting Nannashttps://twitter.com/knittingnannas

1962 2016

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UQ-CCSGCentre for Coal Seam Gas

THANK YOU

Questions and comments welcome

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

UQ Annual Report on Queensland’s Gasfields Communities · 9 UQ-CCSG Centre for Coal Seam Gas Population 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 Chinchilla 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 Dalby