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Update on Regulatory Developments to
Support Solar Park Concept
28 October 2010Upington, South Africa
1
Contents
Regulatory provisions for new generation capacity
Integrated Resource Plan
Solar Park Opportunity
Conclusion
2
Regulatory provisions for new generation capacity
3
Planning (IRP)Determination by Minister
Power purchase agreement
Grid connection
• Balancing supply/demand simultaneously as meeting other objectives- Carbon- Supply adequacy- Water- price
• Minister commissions feasibility study, with outcomes relating to:• allocation of
financial, technical and operational risk between buyer and generator
• Whether appropriate generator should be Eskom or an IPP
• In consultation with Regulator – on licensing matters
• Concurrence with National Treasury – buyer support
• Standardized provisions in relation to certain risk allocation
• Regulator to ensure that buyer able to recover full amount of costs incurred by buyer over PPA term
• Eskom will be required to enter into PPA with buyer that meets requirements set out
• Buying function to be undertaken initially by ring-fenced entity within Eskom, ultimately separated out
• Non-discriminatory access
• NTC and the Regulator to timeously provide assistance as Minister may require for purposes of developing and monitoring the implementation of an IRP
- evacuation corridors
Public consultation process to commence soon
Integrated Resource Plan
• IRP2010 has been completed and published for public comments
• The final draft will be published, taking into account the inputs from the stakeholders
4
No reserve margin
period of high risk
power cuts
Restoring the requisite reserve
margin
The need to replace the
old fleet
Data source Eskom
5
Resolving Capacity constraintsResolving Capacity constraintsLong Term – IP 2010Medium Term – National Emergency Response and Business Continuity Plan
Country Electricity Plan (IRP2010)
This Presentation
National Emergency Response and Business Continuity
Plan
Medium Term RiskMedium Term RiskAll Indicators predict long and hard storms ahead
ACURRENT REALITY
CSTRATEGY
DIMPLEMENTATION
BOBJECTIVES
Uncertainties
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
01 J
an
uary 2
010
05 J
an
uary 2
010
09 J
an
uary 2
010
13 J
an
uary 2
010
17 J
an
uary 2
010
21 J
an
uary 2
010
25 J
an
uary 2
010
29 J
an
uary 2
010
02 F
ebruary 2
010
06 F
ebruary 2
010
10 F
ebruary 2
010
14 F
ebruary 2
010
18 F
ebruary 2
010
22 F
ebruary 2
010
26 F
ebruary 2
010
02 M
arch
2010
06 M
arch
2010
10 M
arch
2010
14 M
arch
2010
18 M
arch
2010
22 M
arch
2010
26 M
arch
2010
30 M
arch
2010
03 A
pril 2
010
07 A
pril 2
010
11 A
pril 2
010
15 A
pril 2
010
19 A
pril 2
010
23 A
pril 2
010
27 A
pril 2
010
01 M
ay 2
010
05 M
ay 2
010
09 M
ay 2
010
13 M
ay 2
010
17 M
ay 2
010
21 M
ay 2
010
25 M
ay 2
010
MW
h
Utilisation of Emergency Generators 2010
Daily Gas Turbine Usage Daily ILS Usage
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
01
/0
1/2
01
0
04
/0
1/2
01
0
07
/0
1/2
01
0
10
/0
1/2
01
0
13
/0
1/2
01
0
16
/0
1/2
01
0
19
/0
1/2
01
0
22
/0
1/2
01
0
25
/0
1/2
01
0
28
/0
1/2
01
0
31
/0
1/2
01
0
03
/0
2/2
01
0
06
/0
2/2
01
0
09
/0
2/2
01
0
12
/0
2/2
01
0
15
/0
2/2
01
0
18
/0
2/2
01
0
21
/0
2/2
01
0
24
/0
2/2
01
0
27
/0
2/2
01
0
02
/0
3/2
01
0
05
/0
3/2
01
0
08
/0
3/2
01
0
11
/0
3/2
01
0
14
/0
3/2
01
0
17
/0
3/2
01
0
20
/0
3/2
01
0
23
/0
3/2
01
0
26
/0
3/2
01
0
29
/0
3/2
01
0
01
/0
4/2
01
0
04
/0
4/2
01
0
07
/0
4/2
01
0
10
/0
4/2
01
0
13
/0
4/2
01
0
16
/0
4/2
01
0
19
/0
4/2
01
0
22
/0
4/2
01
0
25
/0
4/2
01
0
28
/0
4/2
01
0
Under Fequency Alarms
-2,100
-1,900
-1,700
-1,500
-1,300
-1,100
-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
2,500
2,700
2,900
3,100
3,300
1Ja
n
3Ja
n
5Ja
n
7Ja
n
9Ja
n
11
Ja
n
13
Ja
n
15
Ja
n
17
Ja
n
19
Ja
n
21
Ja
n
23
Ja
n
25
Ja
n
27
Ja
n
29
Ja
n
31
Ja
n
2F
eb
4F
eb
6F
eb
8F
eb
10
Fe
b
12
Fe
b
14
Fe
b
16
Fe
b
18
Fe
b
20
Fe
b
22
Fe
b
24
Fe
b
26
Fe
b
28
Fe
b
2M
ar
4M
ar
6M
ar
8M
ar
10
Ma
r
12
Ma
r
14
Ma
r
16
Ma
r
18
Ma
r
20
Ma
r
22
Ma
r
24
Ma
r
26
Ma
r
28
Ma
r
30
Ma
r
1A
pr
3A
pr
5A
pr
7A
pr
9A
pr
11
Ap
r
13
Ap
r
15
Ap
r
17
Ap
r
19
Ap
r
21
Ap
r
23
Ap
r
25
Ap
r
27
Ap
r
29
Ap
r
1M
ay
3M
ay
5M
ay
7M
ay
9M
ay
11
Ma
y
13
Ma
y
15
Ma
y
17
Ma
y
19
Ma
y
21
Ma
y
MW
Actual Daily Operating Reserve (Excludes Emergency Reserves)
Actal Operating Reserve in MW
Linear (Actal Operating Reserve in MW)
Use of Emergency generators
Increasing
Under Frequency Alarms
Increasing
Daily operating reserves
Reducing
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
01-J
an-1
0
08-J
an-1
0
15-J
an-1
0
22-J
an-1
0
29-J
an-1
0
05-F
eb-1
0
12-F
eb-1
0
19-F
eb-1
0
26-F
eb-1
0
05-M
ar
-10
12-M
ar
-10
19-M
ar
-10
26-M
ar
-10
02-A
pr-10
09-A
pr-10
16-A
pr-10
23-A
pr-10
30-A
pr-10
07-M
ay-10
14-M
ay-10
21-M
ay-10
MW
Eskom Generation Daily Actial Unplanned Outages
Partial Load LossesFull Load Losses
Daily Unplanned capacity losses
Increasing
IRP 2010 - Balancing Competing ObjectivesIRP 2010 - Balancing Competing Objectives
Low Cost
Low Carbon
Security ofSupply
Low Water
BalancedScenario
Scenarios are not plansScenarios are not plansThey are simple glimpses of extreme futures used to evaluate trade-offs between competing objectives
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
0.0
0.1
0.2
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
0.0
0.1
0.2
Reducing Uncertainty
Scenarios
Risk AdjustedPlan Policy
AdjustedPlan
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
0.0
0.1
0.2
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
0.0
0.1
0.2
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
0.0
0.1
0.2
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
0.0
0.1
0.2
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
0.0
0.1
0.2
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
0.0
0.1
0.2
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
0.0
0.1
0.2
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
0.0
0.1
0.2
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
0.0
0.1
0.2
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
0.0
0.1
0.2
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Peaking - Pumped Storage
Peaking - OCGT
Mid-merit Gas
Import gas
Import hydro
Import coal
FBC Coal
Nuclear
PF Coal
0.0
0.1
0.2
15 Scenarios created and evaluated15 Scenarios created and evaluated3x Low Cost, 8x Low Carbon, 2x Reduced Demand, 2x Regional Development
Scenario Constraints KusileBase Case 0.0 Limited regional development options
No externalities (incl carbon tax) or climate change targetsCommitted
Base Case 0.1 As above ExcludedBase Case 0.2 As above Committed, but 24 month
delay; and 12 month delay for Medupi
Emission Limit 1.0 (EM1) Annual limit imposed on CO2 emissions from electricity industry of 275MT CO2-eq
Committed
Emission Limit 1.1 As above ExcludedEmission Limit 2.0 (EM2) Annual limit imposed on CO2 emissions from electricity
industry of 275MT CO2-eq, imposed only from 2025Committed
Emission Limit 2.1 As above ExcludedEmission Limit 3.0 (EM3) Annual limit imposed on CO2 emissions from electricity
industry 220MT CO2-eq, imposed from 2020Committed
Emission Limit 3.1 As above ExcludedCarbon Tax 0.0 (CT) Imposing carbon tax as per LTMS values (escalated to 2010
ZAR)Committed
Carbon Tax 0.1 As above ExcludedRegional Development 0.0 (RD)
Inclusion of additional regional projects as options Committed
Regional Development 0.1
As above Excluded
Enhanced DSM 0.0 (EDSM)
Additional DSM committed to extent of 6TWh energy equivalent in 2015
Committed
Enhanced DSM 0.1 As above Excluded
From Scenarios to the planFrom Scenarios to the planScenario Constraints Kusile
Balanced Scenarios
Balancing • Annual CO2 emissions •Price path peak (R/MWh)•Water Supply Uncertainty•Localisation potential & Regional development
NB: Adequacy of Security of Supply is equalized for all scenarios
Committed, but 24 month delay; and 12 month delay for Medupi
Policy adjusted IRP
Development of the Policy-adjusted IRP can commence as soon as the stakeholder consultation completed.
Baseload - Coal48%
Baseload -Nuclear
14%
Baseload -Import hydro
2%
Mid-merit Gas5%
Peaking -OCGT
9%
Peaking -Pumped
Storage, Hydro6%
Renewables16%
Total capacity (2030)
Baseload - Coal72%
Baseload -Nuclear
2%
Baseload - Import hydro
3%
Mid-merit Gas4%
Peaking - OCGT9%
Peaking -Pumped Storage,
Hydro7%
Renewables3%
Total capacity (2030)
Diversify Generation Mix – By 2030Diversify Generation Mix – By 2030Balancing Risk, Cost and Carbon
Low Cost Scenario
Balanced Scenario
Baseload - Coal36%
Baseload -Nuclear
12%Baseload - Import
hydro1%
Mid-merit Gas4%
Peaking - OCGT10%
Peaking -Pumped Storage,
Hydro5%
Renewables32%
Total capacity (2030)Low Carbon Scenario
New Capacity AllocationTechnology Allocation
Renewables 33%Baseload - Nuclear 25%Peaking - OCGT 14%Mid-merit Gas 11%Baseload - Coal 9%Baseload - Import hydro 4%Peaking - Pumped Storage 4%
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Pric
e (R
/kW
h) Real
Indicative Price Paths
Affordability/PriceAffordability/PriceIndicative Price Paths
Low Carbon
Low Cost Scenario
Balanced
RSA beneficiating competitivenessRSA beneficiating competitivenessIndustrial electricity pricing comparison (2010-2020)
Source: XTA Commissioned Frost and Sullivan Model
If we do not balanceRSA loses competitiveness
Balancing Affordability, Price & CarbonBalancing Affordability, Price & CarbonDiminishing returns on carbon reduction
Low Cost, 75,400
Balanced, 81,675
Low Carbon, 97,259
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
430
700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000 1,100,000 1,200,000 1,300,000 1,400,000
Carb
on E
mm
isio
ns in
met
ric t
ons p
er a
nnum
Funding Required in present value terms Rbn
Value of Key Factor by 2030
Bubble Six ~ Total MW Installed
Low Carbon needs ~22GW more installed than Low Cost
Diminishing Returns!
210
230
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Wat
er c
onsu
mpti
on
(Ml)
Water usage
WaterWaterTotal water consumption trends
Low Carbon
Low Cost Scenario
Balanced
Solar Park OpportunitySolar Park Opportunity
Opportunity
Funding ConsiderationsFunding Considerations
• Funding remains a serious issue.
• The majority of projects can be privately funded – removes the risk from the Govt.
• Certainly expect the renewable energy tranche to be private sector funded
Summary conclusionsSummary conclusionsFrom Scenarios evaluation
Cost/Price/
• Obligation to protect the environment prohibit the lowest cost
• Growth and job creation demand RSA protects competitiveness
Carbon/Affordability
• We cannot afford Copenhagen but,
• We can get to LTMS by 2025
Security of Supply
• All scenarios equalized adequacy of Security of Supply
Summary RecommendationsSummary Recommendations
The public consultation process continuing
The “Balanced Scenario” represents the best fit of the realities of known
physical constraints, prescribed specific objectives or desired future conditions.
Inherent uncertainties can be reduced (but never eliminated) by repeating the
IRP planning process going forward as and when new information becomes
available.
No reserve margin
period of high risk
power cuts
Restoring the requisite reserve
margin
The need to replace the
old fleet
Data source Eskom
20
Way ForwardWay ForwardIRP 2010 - Proceed with Balanced Scenario to complete ASAPNational Emergency Response and Business Continuity Plan – Launch ASAP
Country Electricity Plan (IRP2010)
National Emergency Response and
Business Continuity Plan
Under ControlProceed with Balanced Scenario to complete ASAP
CRITICAL and URGENTAttention Required
21
