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Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-1
Module
Physical Fundamentals of Global Change Processes
Lecture 1
Introduction to the concept of the module and
overview of the covered themes
University of Applied Sciences EberswaldeMaster Study Program Global Change Management
Manfred Stock Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-2
CV of Manfred Stock
bull Birth 16021949 in Osnabruumlck Germany bull Scientific Education Physics and Mathematics
1968-78 Universities of FrankfurtM and Regensburg 1972 Diploma in Solid State Physics 1978 Thesis on High Pressure Spectroscopy
bull Scientific Career1972-78 University of Regensburg Assistant Lecturer in Physics 1978-79 University of Regensburg Postdoc in a DFG-Project 1979-88 Battelle FrankfurtM Projectleader Gasexplosions in Industrial Sites 1988-90 Battelle FrankfurtM Senior-Scientist Gas- Dust-Explosions amp Fire 1991-92 Battelle Europe Groupleader Industrial amp Environmental Risks 1992-93 Self-employed Consultant for Safety and Environmental Audits 93-2002 Deputy Director Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
now Acting Department Head Integrated Systems Analysis and Head Regional Research
bull E-mail stockpik-potsdamde Homepage
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-3
Contents of Lecture 1Introduction and Overview
A What is the definition of Global Change Part Earthrsquos capacity to sustain lifendash What are the (physical) fundamentals of life on Earthndash Earth System Modeling (long-run processes)ndash Planetary ecology and Homeostasisndash How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
B What is Global ChangePart Examples for Non-Sustainabilityndash Anthropogenic use of natural resources ndash Anthropogenic environmental degradation ndash Anthropogenic climate change ndash Direct impacts of climate changendash Indirect impacts of climate changendash Environmentally induced climate change
Note
Fundaments for sustainable solutions and possible management options will be discussed in the next lectures
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-4
A What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-5
What are the (physical) fundamentals
of life on Earth
Global Change can alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life
of primitive life forms orof human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-6
EARTH SYSTEM MODELING
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-7
Model Types with different number of processes detail of description and degree of integration
Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity
eg Global Climate Circulation Model (GCM)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-8
Earth System Model (conceptual geological version)
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
rarr Biogeochemical Cycles(long-run processes)
Solar energyrarr
volcanism
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-9
Example of a Biogeochemical Cycle
The Carbon Cycle
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-10
von Bloh Bounama amp Franck (2003) Geophys Res Lett 30 (18) 1963
Model results Evolution of global surface temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-11
von Bloh Bounama amp Franck (2003) Geophys Res Lett 30 (18) 1963
Model results Evolution of the cumulative biosphere pools for prokaryotes eukaryotes and complex multicellular life
Cambrian Explosionbiogeochemical feedback
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-12
Geosphere-Biosphere Feedbacks
Biological productivity
321)pCO()( 2pCOmaxbio 2=ΠsdotΠsdotΠ=Π iT iiTii
[0degC30degC]complex multicellular life formsi=3
[5degC45degC]Eucaryotes (organism with a complex cell or multicellular)i=2
[2degC100degC]Procaryotes (organisms without a cell nucleus = karyon)i=1temperature tolerance windows
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-13
CAMBRIAN EXPLOSIONbull Biological Big Bang 540 million years agobull Most modern animal groups appear
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-14
Habitable Zone
0))()((HZ atm ftRTtRPR sΠ=
Venus Earth Mars
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-15
Evolution of Habitable Zones
past
present
future
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-16
Atmospheres of Mars Earth and Venus
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-17
NASArsquos billion $ question in the mid 1960s(Mission to Mars - originally called Voyager later renamed Viking)
How to detect life on a remote planet
Technique
Remote Spectral Sensing
hydrogen absorption lines appear against a continuous visual spectrum of light
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-18
Idea of James LovelockAnalyze atmospheric chemical equilibrium
The stable persistence in the Earthrsquos atmosphere of gases that quickly react with each other could only be possible with some kind of lsquocontrol systemrsquo and this must involve the life of the planet
rarr Gaia hypothesis
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-19
Daisy world planetary temperature control (Homeostasis)
T
t
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-20
HomeostasisHomeostasis is the property of an open system especially
living organisms to regulate its internal environment to maintain a stable constant condition by means of multiple dynamic equilibrium adjustments controlled by interrelated regulation mechanisms
rarr Life sustains life
How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-21
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-2
CV of Manfred Stock
bull Birth 16021949 in Osnabruumlck Germany bull Scientific Education Physics and Mathematics
1968-78 Universities of FrankfurtM and Regensburg 1972 Diploma in Solid State Physics 1978 Thesis on High Pressure Spectroscopy
bull Scientific Career1972-78 University of Regensburg Assistant Lecturer in Physics 1978-79 University of Regensburg Postdoc in a DFG-Project 1979-88 Battelle FrankfurtM Projectleader Gasexplosions in Industrial Sites 1988-90 Battelle FrankfurtM Senior-Scientist Gas- Dust-Explosions amp Fire 1991-92 Battelle Europe Groupleader Industrial amp Environmental Risks 1992-93 Self-employed Consultant for Safety and Environmental Audits 93-2002 Deputy Director Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
now Acting Department Head Integrated Systems Analysis and Head Regional Research
bull E-mail stockpik-potsdamde Homepage
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-3
Contents of Lecture 1Introduction and Overview
A What is the definition of Global Change Part Earthrsquos capacity to sustain lifendash What are the (physical) fundamentals of life on Earthndash Earth System Modeling (long-run processes)ndash Planetary ecology and Homeostasisndash How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
B What is Global ChangePart Examples for Non-Sustainabilityndash Anthropogenic use of natural resources ndash Anthropogenic environmental degradation ndash Anthropogenic climate change ndash Direct impacts of climate changendash Indirect impacts of climate changendash Environmentally induced climate change
Note
Fundaments for sustainable solutions and possible management options will be discussed in the next lectures
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-4
A What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-5
What are the (physical) fundamentals
of life on Earth
Global Change can alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life
of primitive life forms orof human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-6
EARTH SYSTEM MODELING
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-7
Model Types with different number of processes detail of description and degree of integration
Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity
eg Global Climate Circulation Model (GCM)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-8
Earth System Model (conceptual geological version)
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
rarr Biogeochemical Cycles(long-run processes)
Solar energyrarr
volcanism
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-9
Example of a Biogeochemical Cycle
The Carbon Cycle
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-10
von Bloh Bounama amp Franck (2003) Geophys Res Lett 30 (18) 1963
Model results Evolution of global surface temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-11
von Bloh Bounama amp Franck (2003) Geophys Res Lett 30 (18) 1963
Model results Evolution of the cumulative biosphere pools for prokaryotes eukaryotes and complex multicellular life
Cambrian Explosionbiogeochemical feedback
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-12
Geosphere-Biosphere Feedbacks
Biological productivity
321)pCO()( 2pCOmaxbio 2=ΠsdotΠsdotΠ=Π iT iiTii
[0degC30degC]complex multicellular life formsi=3
[5degC45degC]Eucaryotes (organism with a complex cell or multicellular)i=2
[2degC100degC]Procaryotes (organisms without a cell nucleus = karyon)i=1temperature tolerance windows
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-13
CAMBRIAN EXPLOSIONbull Biological Big Bang 540 million years agobull Most modern animal groups appear
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-14
Habitable Zone
0))()((HZ atm ftRTtRPR sΠ=
Venus Earth Mars
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-15
Evolution of Habitable Zones
past
present
future
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-16
Atmospheres of Mars Earth and Venus
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-17
NASArsquos billion $ question in the mid 1960s(Mission to Mars - originally called Voyager later renamed Viking)
How to detect life on a remote planet
Technique
Remote Spectral Sensing
hydrogen absorption lines appear against a continuous visual spectrum of light
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-18
Idea of James LovelockAnalyze atmospheric chemical equilibrium
The stable persistence in the Earthrsquos atmosphere of gases that quickly react with each other could only be possible with some kind of lsquocontrol systemrsquo and this must involve the life of the planet
rarr Gaia hypothesis
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-19
Daisy world planetary temperature control (Homeostasis)
T
t
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-20
HomeostasisHomeostasis is the property of an open system especially
living organisms to regulate its internal environment to maintain a stable constant condition by means of multiple dynamic equilibrium adjustments controlled by interrelated regulation mechanisms
rarr Life sustains life
How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-21
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-3
Contents of Lecture 1Introduction and Overview
A What is the definition of Global Change Part Earthrsquos capacity to sustain lifendash What are the (physical) fundamentals of life on Earthndash Earth System Modeling (long-run processes)ndash Planetary ecology and Homeostasisndash How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
B What is Global ChangePart Examples for Non-Sustainabilityndash Anthropogenic use of natural resources ndash Anthropogenic environmental degradation ndash Anthropogenic climate change ndash Direct impacts of climate changendash Indirect impacts of climate changendash Environmentally induced climate change
Note
Fundaments for sustainable solutions and possible management options will be discussed in the next lectures
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-4
A What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-5
What are the (physical) fundamentals
of life on Earth
Global Change can alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life
of primitive life forms orof human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-6
EARTH SYSTEM MODELING
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-7
Model Types with different number of processes detail of description and degree of integration
Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity
eg Global Climate Circulation Model (GCM)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-8
Earth System Model (conceptual geological version)
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
rarr Biogeochemical Cycles(long-run processes)
Solar energyrarr
volcanism
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-9
Example of a Biogeochemical Cycle
The Carbon Cycle
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-10
von Bloh Bounama amp Franck (2003) Geophys Res Lett 30 (18) 1963
Model results Evolution of global surface temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-11
von Bloh Bounama amp Franck (2003) Geophys Res Lett 30 (18) 1963
Model results Evolution of the cumulative biosphere pools for prokaryotes eukaryotes and complex multicellular life
Cambrian Explosionbiogeochemical feedback
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-12
Geosphere-Biosphere Feedbacks
Biological productivity
321)pCO()( 2pCOmaxbio 2=ΠsdotΠsdotΠ=Π iT iiTii
[0degC30degC]complex multicellular life formsi=3
[5degC45degC]Eucaryotes (organism with a complex cell or multicellular)i=2
[2degC100degC]Procaryotes (organisms without a cell nucleus = karyon)i=1temperature tolerance windows
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-13
CAMBRIAN EXPLOSIONbull Biological Big Bang 540 million years agobull Most modern animal groups appear
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-14
Habitable Zone
0))()((HZ atm ftRTtRPR sΠ=
Venus Earth Mars
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-15
Evolution of Habitable Zones
past
present
future
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-16
Atmospheres of Mars Earth and Venus
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-17
NASArsquos billion $ question in the mid 1960s(Mission to Mars - originally called Voyager later renamed Viking)
How to detect life on a remote planet
Technique
Remote Spectral Sensing
hydrogen absorption lines appear against a continuous visual spectrum of light
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-18
Idea of James LovelockAnalyze atmospheric chemical equilibrium
The stable persistence in the Earthrsquos atmosphere of gases that quickly react with each other could only be possible with some kind of lsquocontrol systemrsquo and this must involve the life of the planet
rarr Gaia hypothesis
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-19
Daisy world planetary temperature control (Homeostasis)
T
t
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-20
HomeostasisHomeostasis is the property of an open system especially
living organisms to regulate its internal environment to maintain a stable constant condition by means of multiple dynamic equilibrium adjustments controlled by interrelated regulation mechanisms
rarr Life sustains life
How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-21
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-4
A What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-5
What are the (physical) fundamentals
of life on Earth
Global Change can alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life
of primitive life forms orof human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-6
EARTH SYSTEM MODELING
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-7
Model Types with different number of processes detail of description and degree of integration
Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity
eg Global Climate Circulation Model (GCM)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-8
Earth System Model (conceptual geological version)
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
rarr Biogeochemical Cycles(long-run processes)
Solar energyrarr
volcanism
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-9
Example of a Biogeochemical Cycle
The Carbon Cycle
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-10
von Bloh Bounama amp Franck (2003) Geophys Res Lett 30 (18) 1963
Model results Evolution of global surface temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-11
von Bloh Bounama amp Franck (2003) Geophys Res Lett 30 (18) 1963
Model results Evolution of the cumulative biosphere pools for prokaryotes eukaryotes and complex multicellular life
Cambrian Explosionbiogeochemical feedback
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-12
Geosphere-Biosphere Feedbacks
Biological productivity
321)pCO()( 2pCOmaxbio 2=ΠsdotΠsdotΠ=Π iT iiTii
[0degC30degC]complex multicellular life formsi=3
[5degC45degC]Eucaryotes (organism with a complex cell or multicellular)i=2
[2degC100degC]Procaryotes (organisms without a cell nucleus = karyon)i=1temperature tolerance windows
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-13
CAMBRIAN EXPLOSIONbull Biological Big Bang 540 million years agobull Most modern animal groups appear
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-14
Habitable Zone
0))()((HZ atm ftRTtRPR sΠ=
Venus Earth Mars
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-15
Evolution of Habitable Zones
past
present
future
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-16
Atmospheres of Mars Earth and Venus
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-17
NASArsquos billion $ question in the mid 1960s(Mission to Mars - originally called Voyager later renamed Viking)
How to detect life on a remote planet
Technique
Remote Spectral Sensing
hydrogen absorption lines appear against a continuous visual spectrum of light
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-18
Idea of James LovelockAnalyze atmospheric chemical equilibrium
The stable persistence in the Earthrsquos atmosphere of gases that quickly react with each other could only be possible with some kind of lsquocontrol systemrsquo and this must involve the life of the planet
rarr Gaia hypothesis
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-19
Daisy world planetary temperature control (Homeostasis)
T
t
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-20
HomeostasisHomeostasis is the property of an open system especially
living organisms to regulate its internal environment to maintain a stable constant condition by means of multiple dynamic equilibrium adjustments controlled by interrelated regulation mechanisms
rarr Life sustains life
How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-21
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-5
What are the (physical) fundamentals
of life on Earth
Global Change can alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life
of primitive life forms orof human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-6
EARTH SYSTEM MODELING
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-7
Model Types with different number of processes detail of description and degree of integration
Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity
eg Global Climate Circulation Model (GCM)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-8
Earth System Model (conceptual geological version)
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
rarr Biogeochemical Cycles(long-run processes)
Solar energyrarr
volcanism
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-9
Example of a Biogeochemical Cycle
The Carbon Cycle
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-10
von Bloh Bounama amp Franck (2003) Geophys Res Lett 30 (18) 1963
Model results Evolution of global surface temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-11
von Bloh Bounama amp Franck (2003) Geophys Res Lett 30 (18) 1963
Model results Evolution of the cumulative biosphere pools for prokaryotes eukaryotes and complex multicellular life
Cambrian Explosionbiogeochemical feedback
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-12
Geosphere-Biosphere Feedbacks
Biological productivity
321)pCO()( 2pCOmaxbio 2=ΠsdotΠsdotΠ=Π iT iiTii
[0degC30degC]complex multicellular life formsi=3
[5degC45degC]Eucaryotes (organism with a complex cell or multicellular)i=2
[2degC100degC]Procaryotes (organisms without a cell nucleus = karyon)i=1temperature tolerance windows
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-13
CAMBRIAN EXPLOSIONbull Biological Big Bang 540 million years agobull Most modern animal groups appear
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-14
Habitable Zone
0))()((HZ atm ftRTtRPR sΠ=
Venus Earth Mars
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-15
Evolution of Habitable Zones
past
present
future
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-16
Atmospheres of Mars Earth and Venus
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-17
NASArsquos billion $ question in the mid 1960s(Mission to Mars - originally called Voyager later renamed Viking)
How to detect life on a remote planet
Technique
Remote Spectral Sensing
hydrogen absorption lines appear against a continuous visual spectrum of light
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-18
Idea of James LovelockAnalyze atmospheric chemical equilibrium
The stable persistence in the Earthrsquos atmosphere of gases that quickly react with each other could only be possible with some kind of lsquocontrol systemrsquo and this must involve the life of the planet
rarr Gaia hypothesis
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-19
Daisy world planetary temperature control (Homeostasis)
T
t
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-20
HomeostasisHomeostasis is the property of an open system especially
living organisms to regulate its internal environment to maintain a stable constant condition by means of multiple dynamic equilibrium adjustments controlled by interrelated regulation mechanisms
rarr Life sustains life
How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-21
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-6
EARTH SYSTEM MODELING
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-7
Model Types with different number of processes detail of description and degree of integration
Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity
eg Global Climate Circulation Model (GCM)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-8
Earth System Model (conceptual geological version)
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
rarr Biogeochemical Cycles(long-run processes)
Solar energyrarr
volcanism
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-9
Example of a Biogeochemical Cycle
The Carbon Cycle
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-10
von Bloh Bounama amp Franck (2003) Geophys Res Lett 30 (18) 1963
Model results Evolution of global surface temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-11
von Bloh Bounama amp Franck (2003) Geophys Res Lett 30 (18) 1963
Model results Evolution of the cumulative biosphere pools for prokaryotes eukaryotes and complex multicellular life
Cambrian Explosionbiogeochemical feedback
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-12
Geosphere-Biosphere Feedbacks
Biological productivity
321)pCO()( 2pCOmaxbio 2=ΠsdotΠsdotΠ=Π iT iiTii
[0degC30degC]complex multicellular life formsi=3
[5degC45degC]Eucaryotes (organism with a complex cell or multicellular)i=2
[2degC100degC]Procaryotes (organisms without a cell nucleus = karyon)i=1temperature tolerance windows
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-13
CAMBRIAN EXPLOSIONbull Biological Big Bang 540 million years agobull Most modern animal groups appear
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-14
Habitable Zone
0))()((HZ atm ftRTtRPR sΠ=
Venus Earth Mars
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-15
Evolution of Habitable Zones
past
present
future
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-16
Atmospheres of Mars Earth and Venus
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-17
NASArsquos billion $ question in the mid 1960s(Mission to Mars - originally called Voyager later renamed Viking)
How to detect life on a remote planet
Technique
Remote Spectral Sensing
hydrogen absorption lines appear against a continuous visual spectrum of light
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-18
Idea of James LovelockAnalyze atmospheric chemical equilibrium
The stable persistence in the Earthrsquos atmosphere of gases that quickly react with each other could only be possible with some kind of lsquocontrol systemrsquo and this must involve the life of the planet
rarr Gaia hypothesis
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-19
Daisy world planetary temperature control (Homeostasis)
T
t
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-20
HomeostasisHomeostasis is the property of an open system especially
living organisms to regulate its internal environment to maintain a stable constant condition by means of multiple dynamic equilibrium adjustments controlled by interrelated regulation mechanisms
rarr Life sustains life
How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-21
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-7
Model Types with different number of processes detail of description and degree of integration
Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity
eg Global Climate Circulation Model (GCM)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-8
Earth System Model (conceptual geological version)
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
rarr Biogeochemical Cycles(long-run processes)
Solar energyrarr
volcanism
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-9
Example of a Biogeochemical Cycle
The Carbon Cycle
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-10
von Bloh Bounama amp Franck (2003) Geophys Res Lett 30 (18) 1963
Model results Evolution of global surface temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-11
von Bloh Bounama amp Franck (2003) Geophys Res Lett 30 (18) 1963
Model results Evolution of the cumulative biosphere pools for prokaryotes eukaryotes and complex multicellular life
Cambrian Explosionbiogeochemical feedback
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-12
Geosphere-Biosphere Feedbacks
Biological productivity
321)pCO()( 2pCOmaxbio 2=ΠsdotΠsdotΠ=Π iT iiTii
[0degC30degC]complex multicellular life formsi=3
[5degC45degC]Eucaryotes (organism with a complex cell or multicellular)i=2
[2degC100degC]Procaryotes (organisms without a cell nucleus = karyon)i=1temperature tolerance windows
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-13
CAMBRIAN EXPLOSIONbull Biological Big Bang 540 million years agobull Most modern animal groups appear
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-14
Habitable Zone
0))()((HZ atm ftRTtRPR sΠ=
Venus Earth Mars
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-15
Evolution of Habitable Zones
past
present
future
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-16
Atmospheres of Mars Earth and Venus
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-17
NASArsquos billion $ question in the mid 1960s(Mission to Mars - originally called Voyager later renamed Viking)
How to detect life on a remote planet
Technique
Remote Spectral Sensing
hydrogen absorption lines appear against a continuous visual spectrum of light
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-18
Idea of James LovelockAnalyze atmospheric chemical equilibrium
The stable persistence in the Earthrsquos atmosphere of gases that quickly react with each other could only be possible with some kind of lsquocontrol systemrsquo and this must involve the life of the planet
rarr Gaia hypothesis
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-19
Daisy world planetary temperature control (Homeostasis)
T
t
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-20
HomeostasisHomeostasis is the property of an open system especially
living organisms to regulate its internal environment to maintain a stable constant condition by means of multiple dynamic equilibrium adjustments controlled by interrelated regulation mechanisms
rarr Life sustains life
How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-21
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-8
Earth System Model (conceptual geological version)
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
rarr Biogeochemical Cycles(long-run processes)
Solar energyrarr
volcanism
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-9
Example of a Biogeochemical Cycle
The Carbon Cycle
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-10
von Bloh Bounama amp Franck (2003) Geophys Res Lett 30 (18) 1963
Model results Evolution of global surface temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-11
von Bloh Bounama amp Franck (2003) Geophys Res Lett 30 (18) 1963
Model results Evolution of the cumulative biosphere pools for prokaryotes eukaryotes and complex multicellular life
Cambrian Explosionbiogeochemical feedback
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-12
Geosphere-Biosphere Feedbacks
Biological productivity
321)pCO()( 2pCOmaxbio 2=ΠsdotΠsdotΠ=Π iT iiTii
[0degC30degC]complex multicellular life formsi=3
[5degC45degC]Eucaryotes (organism with a complex cell or multicellular)i=2
[2degC100degC]Procaryotes (organisms without a cell nucleus = karyon)i=1temperature tolerance windows
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-13
CAMBRIAN EXPLOSIONbull Biological Big Bang 540 million years agobull Most modern animal groups appear
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-14
Habitable Zone
0))()((HZ atm ftRTtRPR sΠ=
Venus Earth Mars
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-15
Evolution of Habitable Zones
past
present
future
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-16
Atmospheres of Mars Earth and Venus
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-17
NASArsquos billion $ question in the mid 1960s(Mission to Mars - originally called Voyager later renamed Viking)
How to detect life on a remote planet
Technique
Remote Spectral Sensing
hydrogen absorption lines appear against a continuous visual spectrum of light
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-18
Idea of James LovelockAnalyze atmospheric chemical equilibrium
The stable persistence in the Earthrsquos atmosphere of gases that quickly react with each other could only be possible with some kind of lsquocontrol systemrsquo and this must involve the life of the planet
rarr Gaia hypothesis
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-19
Daisy world planetary temperature control (Homeostasis)
T
t
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-20
HomeostasisHomeostasis is the property of an open system especially
living organisms to regulate its internal environment to maintain a stable constant condition by means of multiple dynamic equilibrium adjustments controlled by interrelated regulation mechanisms
rarr Life sustains life
How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-21
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-9
Example of a Biogeochemical Cycle
The Carbon Cycle
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-10
von Bloh Bounama amp Franck (2003) Geophys Res Lett 30 (18) 1963
Model results Evolution of global surface temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-11
von Bloh Bounama amp Franck (2003) Geophys Res Lett 30 (18) 1963
Model results Evolution of the cumulative biosphere pools for prokaryotes eukaryotes and complex multicellular life
Cambrian Explosionbiogeochemical feedback
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-12
Geosphere-Biosphere Feedbacks
Biological productivity
321)pCO()( 2pCOmaxbio 2=ΠsdotΠsdotΠ=Π iT iiTii
[0degC30degC]complex multicellular life formsi=3
[5degC45degC]Eucaryotes (organism with a complex cell or multicellular)i=2
[2degC100degC]Procaryotes (organisms without a cell nucleus = karyon)i=1temperature tolerance windows
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-13
CAMBRIAN EXPLOSIONbull Biological Big Bang 540 million years agobull Most modern animal groups appear
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-14
Habitable Zone
0))()((HZ atm ftRTtRPR sΠ=
Venus Earth Mars
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-15
Evolution of Habitable Zones
past
present
future
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-16
Atmospheres of Mars Earth and Venus
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-17
NASArsquos billion $ question in the mid 1960s(Mission to Mars - originally called Voyager later renamed Viking)
How to detect life on a remote planet
Technique
Remote Spectral Sensing
hydrogen absorption lines appear against a continuous visual spectrum of light
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-18
Idea of James LovelockAnalyze atmospheric chemical equilibrium
The stable persistence in the Earthrsquos atmosphere of gases that quickly react with each other could only be possible with some kind of lsquocontrol systemrsquo and this must involve the life of the planet
rarr Gaia hypothesis
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-19
Daisy world planetary temperature control (Homeostasis)
T
t
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-20
HomeostasisHomeostasis is the property of an open system especially
living organisms to regulate its internal environment to maintain a stable constant condition by means of multiple dynamic equilibrium adjustments controlled by interrelated regulation mechanisms
rarr Life sustains life
How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-21
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-10
von Bloh Bounama amp Franck (2003) Geophys Res Lett 30 (18) 1963
Model results Evolution of global surface temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-11
von Bloh Bounama amp Franck (2003) Geophys Res Lett 30 (18) 1963
Model results Evolution of the cumulative biosphere pools for prokaryotes eukaryotes and complex multicellular life
Cambrian Explosionbiogeochemical feedback
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-12
Geosphere-Biosphere Feedbacks
Biological productivity
321)pCO()( 2pCOmaxbio 2=ΠsdotΠsdotΠ=Π iT iiTii
[0degC30degC]complex multicellular life formsi=3
[5degC45degC]Eucaryotes (organism with a complex cell or multicellular)i=2
[2degC100degC]Procaryotes (organisms without a cell nucleus = karyon)i=1temperature tolerance windows
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-13
CAMBRIAN EXPLOSIONbull Biological Big Bang 540 million years agobull Most modern animal groups appear
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-14
Habitable Zone
0))()((HZ atm ftRTtRPR sΠ=
Venus Earth Mars
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-15
Evolution of Habitable Zones
past
present
future
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-16
Atmospheres of Mars Earth and Venus
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-17
NASArsquos billion $ question in the mid 1960s(Mission to Mars - originally called Voyager later renamed Viking)
How to detect life on a remote planet
Technique
Remote Spectral Sensing
hydrogen absorption lines appear against a continuous visual spectrum of light
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-18
Idea of James LovelockAnalyze atmospheric chemical equilibrium
The stable persistence in the Earthrsquos atmosphere of gases that quickly react with each other could only be possible with some kind of lsquocontrol systemrsquo and this must involve the life of the planet
rarr Gaia hypothesis
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-19
Daisy world planetary temperature control (Homeostasis)
T
t
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-20
HomeostasisHomeostasis is the property of an open system especially
living organisms to regulate its internal environment to maintain a stable constant condition by means of multiple dynamic equilibrium adjustments controlled by interrelated regulation mechanisms
rarr Life sustains life
How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-21
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-11
von Bloh Bounama amp Franck (2003) Geophys Res Lett 30 (18) 1963
Model results Evolution of the cumulative biosphere pools for prokaryotes eukaryotes and complex multicellular life
Cambrian Explosionbiogeochemical feedback
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-12
Geosphere-Biosphere Feedbacks
Biological productivity
321)pCO()( 2pCOmaxbio 2=ΠsdotΠsdotΠ=Π iT iiTii
[0degC30degC]complex multicellular life formsi=3
[5degC45degC]Eucaryotes (organism with a complex cell or multicellular)i=2
[2degC100degC]Procaryotes (organisms without a cell nucleus = karyon)i=1temperature tolerance windows
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-13
CAMBRIAN EXPLOSIONbull Biological Big Bang 540 million years agobull Most modern animal groups appear
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-14
Habitable Zone
0))()((HZ atm ftRTtRPR sΠ=
Venus Earth Mars
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-15
Evolution of Habitable Zones
past
present
future
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-16
Atmospheres of Mars Earth and Venus
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-17
NASArsquos billion $ question in the mid 1960s(Mission to Mars - originally called Voyager later renamed Viking)
How to detect life on a remote planet
Technique
Remote Spectral Sensing
hydrogen absorption lines appear against a continuous visual spectrum of light
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-18
Idea of James LovelockAnalyze atmospheric chemical equilibrium
The stable persistence in the Earthrsquos atmosphere of gases that quickly react with each other could only be possible with some kind of lsquocontrol systemrsquo and this must involve the life of the planet
rarr Gaia hypothesis
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-19
Daisy world planetary temperature control (Homeostasis)
T
t
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-20
HomeostasisHomeostasis is the property of an open system especially
living organisms to regulate its internal environment to maintain a stable constant condition by means of multiple dynamic equilibrium adjustments controlled by interrelated regulation mechanisms
rarr Life sustains life
How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-21
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-12
Geosphere-Biosphere Feedbacks
Biological productivity
321)pCO()( 2pCOmaxbio 2=ΠsdotΠsdotΠ=Π iT iiTii
[0degC30degC]complex multicellular life formsi=3
[5degC45degC]Eucaryotes (organism with a complex cell or multicellular)i=2
[2degC100degC]Procaryotes (organisms without a cell nucleus = karyon)i=1temperature tolerance windows
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-13
CAMBRIAN EXPLOSIONbull Biological Big Bang 540 million years agobull Most modern animal groups appear
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-14
Habitable Zone
0))()((HZ atm ftRTtRPR sΠ=
Venus Earth Mars
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-15
Evolution of Habitable Zones
past
present
future
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-16
Atmospheres of Mars Earth and Venus
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-17
NASArsquos billion $ question in the mid 1960s(Mission to Mars - originally called Voyager later renamed Viking)
How to detect life on a remote planet
Technique
Remote Spectral Sensing
hydrogen absorption lines appear against a continuous visual spectrum of light
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-18
Idea of James LovelockAnalyze atmospheric chemical equilibrium
The stable persistence in the Earthrsquos atmosphere of gases that quickly react with each other could only be possible with some kind of lsquocontrol systemrsquo and this must involve the life of the planet
rarr Gaia hypothesis
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-19
Daisy world planetary temperature control (Homeostasis)
T
t
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-20
HomeostasisHomeostasis is the property of an open system especially
living organisms to regulate its internal environment to maintain a stable constant condition by means of multiple dynamic equilibrium adjustments controlled by interrelated regulation mechanisms
rarr Life sustains life
How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-21
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-13
CAMBRIAN EXPLOSIONbull Biological Big Bang 540 million years agobull Most modern animal groups appear
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-14
Habitable Zone
0))()((HZ atm ftRTtRPR sΠ=
Venus Earth Mars
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-15
Evolution of Habitable Zones
past
present
future
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-16
Atmospheres of Mars Earth and Venus
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-17
NASArsquos billion $ question in the mid 1960s(Mission to Mars - originally called Voyager later renamed Viking)
How to detect life on a remote planet
Technique
Remote Spectral Sensing
hydrogen absorption lines appear against a continuous visual spectrum of light
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-18
Idea of James LovelockAnalyze atmospheric chemical equilibrium
The stable persistence in the Earthrsquos atmosphere of gases that quickly react with each other could only be possible with some kind of lsquocontrol systemrsquo and this must involve the life of the planet
rarr Gaia hypothesis
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-19
Daisy world planetary temperature control (Homeostasis)
T
t
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-20
HomeostasisHomeostasis is the property of an open system especially
living organisms to regulate its internal environment to maintain a stable constant condition by means of multiple dynamic equilibrium adjustments controlled by interrelated regulation mechanisms
rarr Life sustains life
How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-21
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-14
Habitable Zone
0))()((HZ atm ftRTtRPR sΠ=
Venus Earth Mars
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-15
Evolution of Habitable Zones
past
present
future
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-16
Atmospheres of Mars Earth and Venus
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-17
NASArsquos billion $ question in the mid 1960s(Mission to Mars - originally called Voyager later renamed Viking)
How to detect life on a remote planet
Technique
Remote Spectral Sensing
hydrogen absorption lines appear against a continuous visual spectrum of light
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-18
Idea of James LovelockAnalyze atmospheric chemical equilibrium
The stable persistence in the Earthrsquos atmosphere of gases that quickly react with each other could only be possible with some kind of lsquocontrol systemrsquo and this must involve the life of the planet
rarr Gaia hypothesis
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-19
Daisy world planetary temperature control (Homeostasis)
T
t
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-20
HomeostasisHomeostasis is the property of an open system especially
living organisms to regulate its internal environment to maintain a stable constant condition by means of multiple dynamic equilibrium adjustments controlled by interrelated regulation mechanisms
rarr Life sustains life
How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-21
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-15
Evolution of Habitable Zones
past
present
future
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-16
Atmospheres of Mars Earth and Venus
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-17
NASArsquos billion $ question in the mid 1960s(Mission to Mars - originally called Voyager later renamed Viking)
How to detect life on a remote planet
Technique
Remote Spectral Sensing
hydrogen absorption lines appear against a continuous visual spectrum of light
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-18
Idea of James LovelockAnalyze atmospheric chemical equilibrium
The stable persistence in the Earthrsquos atmosphere of gases that quickly react with each other could only be possible with some kind of lsquocontrol systemrsquo and this must involve the life of the planet
rarr Gaia hypothesis
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-19
Daisy world planetary temperature control (Homeostasis)
T
t
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-20
HomeostasisHomeostasis is the property of an open system especially
living organisms to regulate its internal environment to maintain a stable constant condition by means of multiple dynamic equilibrium adjustments controlled by interrelated regulation mechanisms
rarr Life sustains life
How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-21
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-16
Atmospheres of Mars Earth and Venus
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-17
NASArsquos billion $ question in the mid 1960s(Mission to Mars - originally called Voyager later renamed Viking)
How to detect life on a remote planet
Technique
Remote Spectral Sensing
hydrogen absorption lines appear against a continuous visual spectrum of light
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-18
Idea of James LovelockAnalyze atmospheric chemical equilibrium
The stable persistence in the Earthrsquos atmosphere of gases that quickly react with each other could only be possible with some kind of lsquocontrol systemrsquo and this must involve the life of the planet
rarr Gaia hypothesis
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-19
Daisy world planetary temperature control (Homeostasis)
T
t
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-20
HomeostasisHomeostasis is the property of an open system especially
living organisms to regulate its internal environment to maintain a stable constant condition by means of multiple dynamic equilibrium adjustments controlled by interrelated regulation mechanisms
rarr Life sustains life
How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-21
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-17
NASArsquos billion $ question in the mid 1960s(Mission to Mars - originally called Voyager later renamed Viking)
How to detect life on a remote planet
Technique
Remote Spectral Sensing
hydrogen absorption lines appear against a continuous visual spectrum of light
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-18
Idea of James LovelockAnalyze atmospheric chemical equilibrium
The stable persistence in the Earthrsquos atmosphere of gases that quickly react with each other could only be possible with some kind of lsquocontrol systemrsquo and this must involve the life of the planet
rarr Gaia hypothesis
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-19
Daisy world planetary temperature control (Homeostasis)
T
t
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-20
HomeostasisHomeostasis is the property of an open system especially
living organisms to regulate its internal environment to maintain a stable constant condition by means of multiple dynamic equilibrium adjustments controlled by interrelated regulation mechanisms
rarr Life sustains life
How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-21
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-18
Idea of James LovelockAnalyze atmospheric chemical equilibrium
The stable persistence in the Earthrsquos atmosphere of gases that quickly react with each other could only be possible with some kind of lsquocontrol systemrsquo and this must involve the life of the planet
rarr Gaia hypothesis
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-19
Daisy world planetary temperature control (Homeostasis)
T
t
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-20
HomeostasisHomeostasis is the property of an open system especially
living organisms to regulate its internal environment to maintain a stable constant condition by means of multiple dynamic equilibrium adjustments controlled by interrelated regulation mechanisms
rarr Life sustains life
How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-21
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-19
Daisy world planetary temperature control (Homeostasis)
T
t
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-20
HomeostasisHomeostasis is the property of an open system especially
living organisms to regulate its internal environment to maintain a stable constant condition by means of multiple dynamic equilibrium adjustments controlled by interrelated regulation mechanisms
rarr Life sustains life
How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-21
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-20
HomeostasisHomeostasis is the property of an open system especially
living organisms to regulate its internal environment to maintain a stable constant condition by means of multiple dynamic equilibrium adjustments controlled by interrelated regulation mechanisms
rarr Life sustains life
How many planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-21
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-21
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-22
Okay about frac12 a million planets with life might be in the Milky Way
Is there a chance to come into contact with another civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-23
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-24
B What is the definition of Global Change
According to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 global change is defined as
ldquoChanges in the global environment (including alterations in climate land productivity oceans or other water resources atmospheric chemistry and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain liferdquo
httpwwwgcrioorgdoctorgc
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-25
What are the processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-26
1 Anthropogenic use of natural resources
water nutrition wood land oil amp coal
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
1)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-27
1a) Water supply from Indian Monsoon Precipitation
Arabian Sea
Southwesterly Summer Monsoon
Northeasterly Winter Monsoon
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-28
1b) Fossil fuel supply
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-29
1c) World Energy Consumption
World Primary Energy Consumption since 1970 projected to 2025
World Energy Consumption between 1800 - 1990
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-30
2 Anthropogenic environmental degradation
soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
2)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-31
2a) Greenhouse Gas Emissions
exceptional rise of CO2-concentration
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-32
2b) Air Pollution (SO2)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-33
2c) Air Pollution (CFCrsquos)Evidence from satellites of thinning of the Ozone layer led to the Montreal Protocol for reducing CFCrsquos
Growth of the Antarctic ozone hole over 20 years as observed by the satellite
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-34
2d) Anthropogenic depletion of land and soil
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-35
bull1975 -Healthy natural vegetation
bull1989 -ldquoFishbonerdquo pattern on the landscape indicate agriculture fields
2e) Anthropogenic Deforestation Rondonia Brazil
bull2001 -Agriculture continues to replace forest cover
From One Planet Many People Atlas of Our Changing EnvironmenthttpnaunepnetOnePlanetManyPeople
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-36
2f) Amazon Deforestation
Almost one fifth of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared 26000 sq km August 2003 to August 2004 alone the second highest on record 6 higher than the previous 12 months
Source Steve Kingstone BBC News Brazil
Deforestation was worst in the state of Mato Grosso
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-37
3 Anthropogenic climate change
GHG induced global warming
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
3)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-38
3a) GHG emissions and global warming records
IPCC-Report 2001bull httpwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-39
The Greenhouse Effect
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-40
3b) Past and future climate change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-41
3c) Sea Level Rise
1 Sea Level NN and coastal depression
2 Tide peak3 Wind drift rise4 Long range wave peak5 Storm wave peak
resulting water peak height
20th Century 15-20 cmMeasured now 3 cm per decade untill 2100 probably up to 1 m Centuries beyond probably several meters
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-42
4 Direct impacts of global and climate change
heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip(and burden of diseases)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems4)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-43
Drought Projections for A1B Scenario
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-44
Recent Amazon Drought
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-45
Heat Wave and Drought Europe 2003
copy AP
The Rhine at Duumlsseldorf
Maisfeld in Ostdeutschland Sommer 2003
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-46
Management of Flood Risks under Climate Change
Extreme Weather Conditions
Climate Change
++ Torrential Rain- Continuous Rain
Land Cover Change Lakes amp Rivers Settlements
Days of heavy rainfall in JulyAugust for various general weather situations
Troglage Mitteleuropa (Vb-Lagen)
Wolfgang Fricke DWDGAW Brief 12 Sept02
Vb-Condition
Elbe Aug 2002Oder Juli 1997
Donau Aug 2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-47
0468
Uumlberschwemmungen in Mittel- und Suumldchina Schaumlden der Uumlberflutung 1998 30 Mrd US$
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-48
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Hurrikan Andrew 1992
Muumlnchener Ruumlck topics 2000
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-49
South Atlantic () Hurricane Catarina 2004Tropical cyclone Catarina off Southern Brazil 26 March 2004 The first hurricane recorded in theSouth Atlantic
Image courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASAGSFC
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-50
copyhttpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricane_Katrina
Garron Lenaz recovers an American flag from the rubble in front of his home in Gulfport Miss after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast Monday Aug 29 2005 (AP PhotoJohn Bazemore)
Loss gt 100000000000 US$
Hurricane KatrinaAugust 2005
The Year 2005 Recordsbull27 tropical storms in the Carebeanbull14 Hurricanes (gt117 kmh)bull 5 Events in Categories IV amp VbullbdquoWilmaldquo lowest-ever air pressure (882 hPa)and highest-ever gale speeds (340 kmh)
bullbdquoVinceldquo and bdquoDeltaldquo reaching Europe
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-51
Hurricane Energy Potential (PDI) and Temperature
Emanuel K Nature 31July 2005Kerry Emanuel nature 436 4 August 2005
SST tropical Atlantic
Global mean temperature
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-52
New Orleans New Orleans HoumlhenmodellHoumlhenmodell
Lake Pontchartrain
Golf-Kuumlste
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock
OriginalartikelOriginalartikelOktoberOktober 20012001Scientific AmericanScientific American
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-54
1 There is no direct cause effect relation for single events and climate change but
2 Since ~1970 and accelerated in the 90ths significant changes areobserved for several extreme weather indicators
bull More days with intense precipitationbull Increasing numbers of floods in many regionsbull Increasing wind peak velocities in various regionsbull Increasing starting conditions for thunderstorms in some regionsbull Increasing damage potential for tropical storms () and winter storms
Natural Disasters
Extreme weather related loss ~10 of GNP in industrial nations
Increase of big large natural disasters (MuRe)Decade 1950-69 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99
number 20 27 47 63 91
MrdUS$ (2004) 45 81 148 228 704
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-55
Increasing Risks of Big Natural Disasters (MuRe)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-56
5 Indirect impacts of climate change
secondary environmental degradationdesertification and famines
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
5)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-57
Climate classification by Koeppen 1901 - 2002
Ar Am Aw As BS BW Cr Cs Cw Do Dc Eo Ec FT FI
Climate types Changes 1988-2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-58
Bleaching of coral reefsreported from 1997 to 1998 (from Mimura and Harasawa 2000)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-59
1979
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-60
2005
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-61
Total melting adds 7 m to global Sea Level Rise
Additional Risk Melting of Greenland Ice Schield
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-62
No George W it wasnrsquot Al Kaida it was melting of
polare ice
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-63
6 Environmentally induced climate change
land use induced change of radiation characteristics
non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems6)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-64
Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development
Roller-Coaster Trajectory
Zickfeld et al 2005 GRL 32 15707 (see also Ball 2005 Nature August 15th)
Wet Regime Bi-stability
Dry Regime
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-65
Additional Risk Change of Ocean CirculationSea level rise (in meter) After failure of the North Atlantic Circulation
Levermann et al 2005
new results of research
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-66
new results of research
NATURE Vol 437 27October 2005
bdquoTipping Pointsldquo of Global Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-67
III Different Aspects of Global Change
bull Growth of population increase of population density migration
bull Modification of human settlement urbanization
bull Land use change with massive intrusion into landscapes and watercourses
bull Increasing economical disproportions poverty hunger and burden of diseases
bull Loss of traditional cultural rootsbull Climate Change
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-68
Johannesburg 2002
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-69
bull Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
bull Achieve universal primary education
bull Promote gender equality and empower women
bull Reduce child mortality
bull Improve maternal health
bull Combat AIDS malaria and other diseases
bull Ensure environmental sustainability
bull Develop a global partnership for development
By 2015
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-70
Earth System Model for Sustainability
Franck et al (2002) Tellus 54B 325
Kerogens are the precursors to hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and are also the material that forms oil shales
+ human civilization
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-71
Earth System Modelling
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-72
Processes of Global Change1) Anthropogenic use of natural resources (water nutrition wood land oil amp coal hellip)2) Anthropogenic environmental degradation (soil erosion air pollution waste disposal hellip)3) Anthropogenic climate change (GHG induced global warming)4) Direct impacts of climate change (heat waves hurricanes floods droughts hellip)5) Indirect impacts of climate change (secondary environmental degradation desertification)6) Environmentally induced climate change (land use induced change of radiation
characteristics non-linear system response eg changing ocean currents)
Social Systems
Climate System
S0
C0
E0Environmental
Systems
Social Systems
Climate System
St
Ct
EtEnvironmental
Systems
Global Change harr time amp processes
1)2)3)
4) 6)5)
St = h(S0 dEdt dCdt)Et = f(E0 dSdt dCdt)Ct = g(C0 dSdt dEdt)
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-73
WBGU
httpwwwwbgude
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-74
Literature (in German)DER KLIMAWANDELDiagnose Prognose Therapieeuro 790Online Beck Verlag (wwwbeckde) or Amazonwwwipccch
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
Global Change Fundamentals wwwpik-potsdamde~stock 1-75
Climate Change the last proof
Thank you for your attention
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