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Page 1 IMPORTANT NOTICE: UK Value Investor provides information, not advice. It is for investors who want to make their own investment decisions and are capable of doing so without advice. If you think you need advice then you should seek a professional advisor. Please see the important notes on the back page for further information. February 2014 UK Value Investor For Defensive Value Investors Contents Market Valuation, Forecast and Asset Allocation Page 2 Model Portfolio Review Page 3 Buying: Reckitt Benckiser (again) Page 8 FTSE All-Share Stock Screens Page 12 Property investing vs stock market investing R ecently I have been thinking about dipping a toe into the property investment world. Although I’m no property investment expert, it was the property market which originally made me into a value investor. After buying a house in 1995 and selling it in 2005 for four times the purchase price, I realised that the same basic principle of buying low and selling high must apply to investing in the stock market as well as property. The trick is to remember that you don’t invest in the stock market when you buy shares. Instead you are investing in a company through a market that we call the stock market. And companies, especially large, stable ones, are really not that different to property. They are income producing assets - With a property you buy a house (or office block, depending on your budget) and rent it out for income. In the stock market you buy a company and it pays you a dividend. Their income is uncertain, but likely to grow faster than inflation - Rent is subject to negotiation with tenants, and if your property sits empty for a while then your income will drop dramatically, at least in the short-term. When you invest in a company like Tesco you don’t know what dividend will be paid next year and there is also a chance that the dividend may be cut. In both cases though, it’s very likely that the income will grow faster than inflation over periods of 5 years or more. Their capital values are uncertain, but likely to grow faster than inflation - After you’ve bought a property you have no idea what it will be worth a year from now. All you can say is that the property is likely to be worth more, in real terms, in 5 or 10 years than it is today. The same is true of most large dividend paying companies. If you own Tesco then you have no idea what the share price will be next year. All you can say is that Tesco is likely to produce inflation beating revenue, profit and dividends growth over 5 or 10 years, and that the share price is likely to increase accordingly (although unpredictably). They both benefit from a long-term mindset - Most property investors view each property as a long-term, multi-year and even multi-decade project. Property investing is a marathon, not a sprint. The short-term is too unpredictable for most people to profit from, while the long-term is predictable enough for solid results to be almost inevitable. I think the same is true of the stock market. The short-term ups and downs are mostly unpredictable, but over the long-term investing in successful, dividend paying companies at low prices is virtually a one-way bet. John Kingham, 1st February 2014

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Page 1: Uk value investor 2014 02

Page 1

IMPORTANT NOTICE: UK Value Investor provides information, not advice. It is for investors who want to make their owninvestment decisions and are capable of doing so without advice. If you think you need advice then you should seek aprofessional advisor. Please see the important notes on the back page for further information.

February 2014

UK Value InvestorFor Defensive Value Investors

Contents

Market Valuation, Forecast and Asset Allocation Page 2

Model Portfolio Review Page 3

Buying: Reckitt Benckiser (again) Page 8

FTSE All-Share Stock Screens Page 12

Property investing vs stock market investing

Recently I have been thinking about dipping a toe into the property investment world. Although I’m no

property investment expert, it was the property market which originally made me into a value investor.

After buying a house in 1995 and selling it in 2005 for four times the purchase price, I realised that the same

basic principle of buying low and selling high must apply to investing in the stock market as well as property.

The trick is to remember that you don’t invest in the stock market when you buy shares. Instead you are

investing in a company through a market that we call the stock market. And companies, especially large,

stable ones, are really not that different to property.

They are income producing assets - With a property you buy a house (or office block, depending on your

budget) and rent it out for income. In the stock market you buy a company and it pays you a dividend.

Their income is uncertain, but likely to grow faster than inflation - Rent is subject to negotiation with

tenants, and if your property sits empty for a while then your income will drop dramatically, at least in the

short-term. When you invest in a company like Tesco you don’t know what dividend will be paid next year

and there is also a chance that the dividend may be cut. In both cases though, it’s very likely that the income

will grow faster than inflation over periods of 5 years or more.

Their capital values are uncertain, but likely to grow faster than inflation - After you’ve bought a property

you have no idea what it will be worth a year from now. All you can say is that the property is likely to be

worth more, in real terms, in 5 or 10 years than it is today. The same is true of most large dividend paying

companies. If you own Tesco then you have no idea what the share price will be next year. All you can say

is that Tesco is likely to produce inflation beating revenue, profit and dividends growth over 5 or 10 years,

and that the share price is likely to increase accordingly (although unpredictably).

They both benefit from a long-term mindset - Most property investors view each property as a long-term,

multi-year and even multi-decade project. Property investing is a marathon, not a sprint. The short-term is

too unpredictable for most people to profit from, while the long-term is predictable enough for solid results

to be almost inevitable. I think the same is true of the stock market. The short-term ups and downs are

mostly unpredictable, but over the long-term investing in successful, dividend paying companies at low prices

is virtually a one-way bet.

John Kingham, 1st February 2014

Page 2: Uk value investor 2014 02

Page 2

FTSE 100 at 6,510Cyclically Adjusted

P/E RatioDescription

Ben Graham EquityAllocation (%)

7 Year AnnualisedReturn Forecast (%)

13,300 - 15,300 26 - 30 Very expensive 25 -2.3 to -0.2

11,200 - 13,300 22 - 26 Expensive 25 to 35 -0.2 to 2.2

9,200 - 11,200 18 - 22 Slightly expensive 35 to 45 2.2 to 5.3

7,200 - 9,200 14 - 18 Normal 45 to 55 5.3 to 9.0

6,100 - 7,200 12 - 14 Slightly cheap 55 to 65 9.0 to 11.5

5,100 - 6,100 10 - 12 Cheap 65 to 75 11.5 to 14.4

4,100 - 5,100 8 - 10 Very cheap 75 14.4 to 18.2

Even if the short-term outcome of an improving economy is a falling stock market, the fact that the

economy is beginning to pick up has to be a good thing. It has certainly been a good thing for some of

the more cyclical stocks.

A good example of this is JD Sport which has had a faintly ridiculous level of performance recently. Since

the start of 2013 the shares have gone up by something like 140% based on little more than changing

sentiment about UK high streets.

Despite such performances, the market overall is still in the bottom half of its normal range of values as

you can see in the chart below.

Market valuation, forecast and asset allocation

2014 hasn’t exactly gotten off to a flying start. Fears about emerging markets and the possible reduction of

quantitative easing (QE) in the west are possible reasons why the FTSE 100 is down to 6,510, having almost

reached 7,000 not so long ago.

As prices fall the market becomes more attractively valued. The market valuation is still ‘slightly cheap’, but

a falling market is likely to offer up more bargains and higher future returns.

If anything, the economic picture seems to be steadily picking up, which is precisely why the issue of QE

tapering is being raised.

Page 3: Uk value investor 2014 02

Page 3

Model portfolio review

Last month’s buy and sell decisions

In January Aviva finally left the model portfolio - having been the lowest ranked stock for quite some time -

at £4.437 per share. The investment’s total return was 32.2% over 21 months, giving an annualised return of

17.7%.

At the same time I sold approximately half of the Mears holding to rebalance it from 6% of the portfolio back

down to 3%. This is an exercise which I will occasionally carry out in order to reduce exposure to any one

company. The sale of these shares realised a capital gain of 71.2% over 34 months, which is an annualised

capital gain of 20.9% on that half of the Mears investment.

Performance

Over the last year the model portfolio has increased in value by 17.8% compared to 9.5% for the FTSE

All-Share benchmark, while annualised returns from inception are 12.6% versus 8.8%. In terms of risk the

model portfolio has a 2-year Beta of 0.59, making it approximately 41% less volatile (risky) than the market.

Vodafone and Verison

This month we should see the final outcome from the Vodafone and Verizon deal. The Verizon shares are

scheduled to be paid out on February 24th with the cash payment coming shortly after on March 5th.

I intend to sell all of the Verizon shares, assuming the share price doesn’t collapse under the weight of selling

pressure. The reason for selling them is that it isn’t part of the FTSE All-Share upon which the stock screen is

based, so I cannot calculate or track its value as well as I can with FTSE-listed stocks. I prefer to sell them and

put the cash into something else where I am more certain that I’m getting value for money.

The cash part of the deal will also be reinvested into a new investment, just like cash from any other dividend.

I will not be adding to the existing Vodafone position as I have a general policy to make just one buy or sell

decision per investment (other than when rebalancing).

Dividends

The model portfolio has produced almost 40% more in dividends than the FTSE All-Share investment trust

benchmark. That gives me some confidence that, despite the model portfolio’s superior capital gains, it is

not outperforming the market because of expanding valuations. Expanding valuations do not provide a solid

foundation for a portfolio as they can easily contract if Mr Market changes his mood. Dividends however,

provide a much more solid foundation, and are largely immune to Mr Market.

£-

£200

£400

£600

£800

£1,000

£1,200

£1,400

£1,600

Model Portfolio Dividends FTSE All-Share Tracker Trust Dividends

Page 4: Uk value investor 2014 02

Page 4

Performance (%) Model Portfolio (A)FTSE All-Share

Tracker Trust (B)

Difference

(A) - (B)

1 Year 17.8 9.5 8.3

Total return from inception (March 2011) 40.6 28.1 12.6

Annualised return from inception 12.4 8.8 3.6

Current cash value £70,317 £64,025 £6,292

Historic dividend yield 3.8 3 0.8

Trailing 2 year beta (lower = less risk) 0.59 1 41% less volatile

Model portfolio performance and statistics

UK Revenue 54% International Revenue 46%

Note that the “average investor” and “bad investor” underperform the market by 3% and 6% per year respectively due to

overtrading, buying high and selling low. These figures are based on research cited by Barclays and the book, Monkey with a Pin.

£40,000

£45,000

£50,000

£55,000

£60,000

£65,000

£70,000

£75,000

Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Ma r-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13

Model Portfolio Total Return FTSE All-Share Tracker Total Return

Average Investor Bad Investor

Size Allocation

Large Cap, 51%

Mid Cap, 32%

Small Cap, 17%

Industry Allocation

Industrials, 31%

Financials, 15%

Consumer Services,

14%

Consumer Goods, 11%

Basic Materials, 7%

Utilities, 6%

Oil & Gas, 6%

Telecommunications,

5%

Health Care, 5%

Page 5: Uk value investor 2014 02

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Page 6: Uk value investor 2014 02

Page 6

Recent Annual Results

23rd January 2014 - Chemring Group PLC (purchased on 18th April 2011)

“Our vision is to be the leading producer of protection systems and energetic products for the globaldefence market. Our strategy is to develop and build on our core competencies in energetic materialsand electronics for sensors, electronic warfare and network protection.” (www.chemring.co.uk)

Revenue

Down 16%

10 Year average earnings

Up 6%

Dividend per share

Down 24%

Debt ratio (max 5)

2.8

Pension liability ratio (max 10)

0.8

Does it still pass the buy tests?

Yes

Quotes from the annual results

In January 2013, the new management team established a Performance Recovery Programme focused ondelivering improvements in operational performance and providing increased resilience to challenging markets.This led to a reorganisation of the Group to ensure swift and effective response to attractive market opportunities.The cost of this reorganisation and restructuring will be approximately £15.0 million, which has predominantlyarisen in the year ended 31 October 2013, and will deliver annual savings of approximately £10.0 million from2014.

The Performance Recovery Programme had five initial areas of focus: Simplify the organisational structure.Integrate compatible business units and deliver untapped synergies. Implement a systematic programme ofoperational performance improvement. Re-focus business development activity. Improve cash and costmanagement.

Operational efficiency is improving, but it will take time to resolve all of the Group's operational issues. Clearerreporting lines and more rapid communication with the Group's senior management are delivering improvedfocus, accountability and responsiveness. Crucially, customers are also benefiting from this streamlinedorganisation through a more co-ordinated approach to the Group's markets, product portfolio, quality andtechnology development.

The Group's strategy is to re-position itself for growth through the innovation and exploitation of intellectualproperty. This will focus on Chemring's core competencies, directing investment into those lines of businesswhich have technologies, products and market positioning that provide the greatest opportunity to achievesustainable high margins and revenue growth.

The benefits of the programme will come through in 2014 and the Group is better placed as a result.

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Page 7: Uk value investor 2014 02

Page 7

Recent Annual Results

30th January 2014 - Royal Dutch Shell (purchased on 9th December 2013)

“We are a global group of energy and petrochemicals companies with around 87,000 employees in morethan 70 countries and territories. We use advanced technologies and take an innovative approach tohelp build a sustainable energy future.” (www.shell.com)

Revenue

Down 5%

10 Year average earnings

Up 4%

Dividend per share

Up 3%

Debt ratio (max 5)

1.1

Pension liability ratio (max 10)

3.4

Does it still pass the buy tests?

Yes

Quotes from the full year results media webcast

Our strategy is designed to deliver through-cycle growth in cash flow and competitive returns, and Shell’sdividend track record underscores our commitment to shareholders.

Our ambitious growth drive in recent years has yielded a step change in Shell’s portfolio and options-set, withmore growth to come, but at the same time we have lost momentum and we can sharpen up our performance ina number of areas. So we are changing emphasis in order to improve our returns and cash flow performance. Iwant to focus on an improved financial performance, enhancing capital efficiency and continued strong deliveryof new projects.

2014 will be the year where we implement some changes as we moderate our spending and growth plans,increase our divestments, and restructure some parts of the company.

Going forward, I want Shell to be measured on our competitive performance, and we are taking a time out oncomplicated targets that are hard to track. We want to generate attractive returns for shareholders. This meansreturns at a project level – typically this is on a discounted cash flow basis – and returns at the bottom line –return on capital employed, earnings, and cash – which of course drives Shell’s dividends.

Let me say that Shell’s long term strategy is sound. Yes, we will make some changes in some areas, but overallI am satisfied with most of the asset base, our project delivery credentials, Shell’s people, and our technologyleadership position. Many of our businesses demonstrate outstanding, world-class operational and financialperformance, and integration and scale are key strengths of the company. But as our business model is basedon significant investment levels, it is essential that we allocate capital efficiently. This is going to be a strongerfocus for the company going forward.

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Page 8: Uk value investor 2014 02

Page 8

Buying: Reckitt Benckiser PLC (RB.)

Price on 1st Feb 2014

4,563p

Index

FTSE 100

Sector

Household Goods & Home Construction

Market Cap

£32.8 billion

Revenue

£9.6 billion

Pre-tax Profit

£2.4 billion

“RB is one of the world’s leading manufacturers and marketers of branded products in health, hygieneand home, selling a comprehensive range through over 60 operating companies into nearly 200countries.” (www.rb.com)

Overview

The origins of the Reckitt Benckiser (RB) name stretch back to the early 19th century, when two separate

businesses were started by their respective eponymous founders. Reckitt & Sons eventually listed on the

London Stock Exchange in 1888 and merged with J&J Coleman’s (of mustard fame) in 1938. Reckitt &

Coleman eventually merged with Benckiser NV in 1999 and began its current focus on a small number of

“Powerbrands” such as Finish, Vanish and Nurofen.

RB has been enormously successful since its merger, growing by more than 100% in the past decade and

increasing its market cap almost fourfold.

This success is primarily down to its Powerbrands and Powermarkets strategy of concentrating on and

investing in high margin, strongly branded consumer products sold into rapidly growing, emerging markets.

RB is one of very few companies in the stock screen which have a 100% growth quality rating, which means

it has managed to grow revenues, profits and dividends in every single year of the last decade.

10Yr Growth rate

17%

Dividend yield

2.9%

Valuation (PE10)

28.1

Growth quality

100%

Debt ratio (max 5)

1.4

Pension ratio (max 10)

0.7

Rank

27 (out of 233)Green = Better than FTSE 100, Red = Equal to or worse than FTSE 100

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Page 9: Uk value investor 2014 02

Page 9

Investment analysis

Successful investing requires the methodical application of a systematic approach in order to achieve specific

objectives, and a checklist is a great aid towards that end. This checklist helps to ensure that the company

under investigation is high quality, and that its shares are likely to improve the portfolio in the long-run.

Industrial diversity: Are there less than three companies from this FTSE sector already in the portfolio?

YES RB will be the only company in the portfolio from the Household Goods & Home Construction sector.

Geographic diversity: Will this company increase the geographic diversity of the portfolio?

YES RB generates approximately 7% of its revenues from the UK with the remaining 93% coming from many

regions across the world.

Operational diversity: Is the company free from depending on a small number of key customers, suppliers

or employees?

YES No supplier accounts for more than 5% of the cost of goods sold, and no customer accounts for more

than 10% of revenue. There does not appear to be any significant dependence on a particular individual or

group of employees.

Market strength: Is the company in the leading group within its markets?

YES RB gets most of its revenues and profits from its 19 Powerbrands, which include Durex, Nurofen, Finish

and many other well-known brands. In most cases the Powerbrands are number 1 or 2 globally in their

categories.

Consistent strength: Does the company have a consistent and successful history within the same industry?

YES RB and its parent companies before it have been operating in the consumer goods market for many

decades. Many of its brands date back to the early 20th century. In terms of success the company has grown

revenues, profits and dividends in every year for more than a decade.

Competitive strength: Does the company have any low cost and durable competitive advantages?

YES Most products that RB sells are generic, commodity products like headache tablets, condoms and

dishwasher tablets. However, a combination of constant product innovation and strong brand names allows

the company to extract unusually high margins, both consistently and over the long-term.

The idea is simple and familiar. Vanish stain removal products may be more expensive than generic brands,

but customers know the brand and trust the quality, and are in many cases willing to pay a higher price

because of that, especially since it’s a relatively inexpensive item.

A higher price results in an increased profit margin, which allows RB to reinvest in the product with new

innovations (such as “Vanish Gold Oxi Action with its super boosted formula”). It also allows them to reinvest

in the Vanish brand to build more trust with more people, also known as brand equity investment. As it says

in the 2012 annual report:

“This also comprises advertising in both traditional and digital media, and also investment in extensive consumerand professional education and information campaigns, such as new mother programmes, in-school handwashing and hygiene programmes, pharmacist education programmes and health professionals developmentprogrammes. Combined, these activities build the equity of, and trust in, our brands.”

Generic branded products typically do not generate the excess cash flows required to build this kind of brand

equity, so it is a virtuous circle which does a good job of protecting high profit margins, even in new markets.

This is a distinct and durable competitive advantage. It requires significant investment in product innovation

and marketing, but that investment has produced excellent returns over many years.

Page 10: Uk value investor 2014 02

Page 10

Past problems: Has the company been free of major crises during the last decade? If there were any, were

they resolved successfully?

YES RB has had no major problems in the last decade.

Current problems: Is the company free of current problems or risks (including excessive debt) which could

materially impact its future prosperity?

YES If RB is such a good company then why are its shares attractively valued? I think the primary reason is

a general sell-off through 2013 of assets with a connection to emerging markets.

RB earns a significant amount of its revenues from emerging markets and so it’s not surprising that negative

sentiment towards those markets has a negative impact on RB’s shares. If you look at RB’s share price it has

been more or less flat since March 2013, even though the company’s revenues, profits and dividends have

continued to increase. There are a variety of possible causes behind this change in sentiment, although the

possibility of tightening monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve seems to be a popular one. However,

I do not see any major threat to the company’s immediate future in any of the stories surrounding emerging

markets. RB’s quarterly results through 2013 have continued to be positive, showing growth in line with

expectations.

Future problems: Is it likely that the company’s economic engine will continue to grow and avoid becoming

obsolete in the next decade?

YES RB sells low-cost, repeat purchase products that have been around for decades and that will probably

be around for decades to come. Brands and products like French’s Mustard are unlikely to disappear anytime

soon. On that basis I don’t think its core products will become obsolete, or be significantly affected by the

dizzying pace of technological change.

However, the key to the company’s future is the growth of its markets, in particular the faster growing, less

developed markets of the world. This growth of non-western markets shows up in the changing geographic

spread of RB’s revenues. In 2003 developing markets generated around 25% of the company’s revenues; by

2015 they are expected to make up at least 50%. The big questions is, can emerging and developing market

continue to grow more quickly than developed markets, and can RB maintain or grow market share in those

growing markets? Without a crystal ball it’s impossible to be certain, but RB has certainly managed to do

precisely that over the past decade, and I see no obvious reason why that won’t continue for many years yet.

Making the tradeI will be adding RB to the model portfolio a few days after this issue is published, with the usual position size

of approximately 1/30th of the portfolio’s total value. This will be the second time that RB has been in the

model portfolio, having previously been bought for £32.83 in 2011 and sold for £46.28 in 2013. During that

period of ownership total returns were 47% in 2 years, so hopefully things will turn out just as well this time.

IMPORTANT NOTICE: This investment analysis is for information only. It should not be construed as advice and should notbe relied upon before investing. You should perform your own investment analysis and factual verification before makinginvestment decisions. If you need advice you should seek a financial advisor. See the important notes on the last page.

Higher ranked companies that were skipped over Reason for not investing

Vedanta Resources Too much debt

FirstGroupRecent large rights issue means that past “per share”results do not relate well to future “per share” results.

Phoenix IT Too UK focused and too small

Sainsbury Already hold 3 Food & Drugs Retailers

Carillion Already hold 3 Support Services companies

Pennon Group Debt ratio too high

Serco Group Already hold 3 Support Services companies

Page 11: Uk value investor 2014 02

Page 11

A quick guide to the model portfolio and stock screen

Portfolio management policies and procedures

Deliberate Diversification - To reduce the risks that come with each individual company and its shares, it is

generally considered a good idea to hold a widely diversified portfolio.

The model portfolio is diversified in terms of the number of companies (with a target of 30 equally

weighted holdings), the industrial spread of those companies (no more than 2 or 3 from the same Sector)

and their geographic spread (no more than 50% of portfolio revenue to be generated in the UK).

Continuous Portfolio Improvement - A portfolio of stocks is a dynamic entity much like a garden. If it is left

unmanaged (as with a pure buy-and-hold portfolio) there is a risk that over time the portfolio will drift away

from its original goal. For example a high yield portfolio may become an average yield portfolio if the share

prices of all the holdings increase faster than the dividends.

To avoid this, the portfolio is actively managed to make sure that it only contains high quality companies

with attractively valued shares. Each month a company is either added to or removed from the portfolio

based on its Stock Screen rank and various other factors.

Buy and sell procedures

Buy Decisions - Each buy decision starts by looking through the Stock Screen for the highest ranked stock

which is not already in the portfolio and which has a debt ratio of less than five (a debt ratio of more than

five is highlighted in red).

The second step is to enter the companies results from the past decade into the investment analysis

worksheet or spreadsheet which are available on the website. This makes it easier to see if the past results

do actually match what the stock screen suggests, in terms of profitability, growth and consistency.

If all of that looks okay then the next step is to check the total defined pension benefit liabilities to see if

they are excessive relative to the company’s earnings power.

Another step is to review the qualitative history of the company over the past decade, i.e. to read its annual

reports in order to get a picture of what it has been doing and what problems it has faced in recent years.

Finally, all these strands are pulled together to try to answer the questions in the investment analysis

checklist about the company’s past, its present and its potential future.

Sell Decisions - Sell decisions are made primarily on an existing holdings rank, with the lowest ranked

shares most likely to be sold. However, there is a degree of subjectivity involved and it isn’t a purely

mechanical process. For example, companies which are surrounded by a reasonable amount of good news

are more likely to be sold than those which are still unloved, or which are still in the middle of a turnaround

strategy.

The Stock Screen

The stock screen ranks stocks based on a combination of their cyclically adjusted earnings and dividend

yields, as well as the long-term growth rate and quality of that growth.

Each of these factors is based on academic research and together create a unique screen which focuses

high yield shares from companies which have produced high quality results in the past.

Page 12: Uk value investor 2014 02

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Page 17: Uk value investor 2014 02

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Page 18: Uk value investor 2014 02

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