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Renaissance UK Investor Conference Presentation
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RENAISSANCE CAPITAL 1ST ANNUAL PAN AFRICAN CONFERENCE,
LONDON
Michael J TarneyMD Corporate Development
Copperbelt Energy Corporation PLC
2
Disclaimer
The information contained in this presentation has been prepared solely for the purpose of providing information to interested parties about Copperbelt Energy Corporation PLC (‘CEC’), and is not in any way binding on CEC.
This presentation has been compiled in good faith by CEC, but no representation is made or warranty given (either express or implied) as to the completeness or accuracy of the information it contains. You are therefore requested to verify this information before you act upon it.
By accessing this presentation, you agree that CEC will not be liable for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of the information and the material contained in this presentation.
The copyright of the material contained in this presentation belongs to and remains solely with CEC. Your access to it does not imply a licence to reproduce and / or distribute this information and you are not allowed to any such act without the prior approval of CEC.
3
Introduction
This Presentation Covers :
CEC Business and OwnershipZambia Business EnvironmentZambian Mining and Energy Sector OverviewFinancial PerformanceFramework for Energy ProjectsHighlights on Kabompo Hydro ProjectConclusion
CEC Business Summary
Formed in 1997 from privatisation of ZCCMBusiness: Electricity Utility operating on the CopperbeltProvince of Zambia
Supply of power to mines [480MW, growth expected]Power Transmission for ZESCO [270MW] and SNEL (DRC) [200-500MW]Telecommunications (Carrier of carriers on the Copperbelt)
Infrastructure884km of 220kV and 66kV transmission lines80MW of Gas turbine generation38 major substations540km of optic fibre on power lines
Investments:50% interest in Realtime providing fixed line fibre in metropolitan centres in ZambiaForming SPV to undertake 40MW hydro investment
55
Ownership Structure
CopperbeltEnergy
Corporation
ZCCM I-H(Govt.)
52%
20%
EmployeeShare Scheme
Zambian Energy
Corporation
Listed SharesLuSE
Zambian Investors&
Development Banks
28%4,000 Shareholders
CEC was listed on the Lusaka Stock Exchange in Jan 08.
6
Zambia Business Environment
Steady economic growth; averaged 6.3% between 2006 to 2009Despite fall in copper prices, continued investment and bumper harvest resulted in GDP growth of 6.3% in 2009Projected growth for 2010 is 5%Year end inflation estimated at 8%Enabling investment policy that provides tax incentivesNo restriction to externalising dividends, no exchange controlsPolitically stableIncreased liquidity on the Lusaka Stock Exchange
7
Zambia Copper Production Figures
8
Copper Price Trend
-1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
Jan
FebMarch April May
June Ju
lyAugSept Oct Nov Dec
usd/
tonn
e
2009
2010
Copper Price Trend
9
Zambian Electricity Sector Structure
Distribution
Transmission
Generation
Supply
Export MarketOther ConsumersDomestic Market
Mines
Power Flow
Financial Flow
LHPC
CEC
ZESCO
CEC
10
CEC Customers
C N E S
KCM C N
MCM C E
Chamb N
NFC N
NFC-L S
Chib C
Frontr S
Zesco C N E S
11
Zambia’s Electricity Demand vs Generation Capacity
EXISTING GENERATION CAPACITY
ZAMBIA FORECAST WINDOW
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
YEAR
MW
Low demand scenario
High Demand Scenario
Reserve margins of >10% required at all times
Equipment upgrade and expansion of existing power plants has provided some relief, but power will be inadequate after 2011
12
No. Country Utility
Installed Capacity
[MW] As at Jan 2010
Available Capacity
[MW] As at Jan
2010
Installed minus
Available [MW]
2009 Peak Demand
[MW]
Capacity Required
[MW] 10.2%
Reserve
Surplus ( MW)
1 Angola ENE 1,187 930 257 6682 Botswana BPC 132 90 42 5533 DRC SNEL 2,442 1,170 1,272 1,0284 Lesotho LEC 72 70 2 1165 Malawi ESCOM 287 267 20 2606 Mozambique EDM 233 174 59 435
HCB 2,075 2,075 - 7 Namibia NamPower 393 360 33 4518 South Africa Eskom 44,170 40,483 3,687 35,8509 Swaziland SEC 70.6 70 1 20010 Tanzania TANESCO 1008 680 328 70511 Zambia ZESCO 1,812 1,200 612 1,48312 Zimbabwe ZESA 2,045 1,080 965 1,714
55,927 48,649 7,278 43,463 47,896 752
53,445 46,772 6,673 41,830 46,097 675 Total Interconnected SAPP
TOTAL SAPP
Supply/Demand in Southern African Power Pool (‘SAPP’)
Source: Southern African Power Pool
13
Financial Highlights
Movements – 2008 to 2009:Reduction in turnover due to reduces sales to the minesGross profit decrease by 14%Earnings increased by 18% mainly due to cost management
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
US$'000
2007 2008 2009
Year
Turnover
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
US$'000
2007 2008 2009
Year
Gross Profit/PAT
Gross ProfitPAT
14
Financial Highlights(continued)
Increase in total asset value attributed to fixed asset revaluation and consistent investment Increase in EBITDA due to margin improvement and cost management
050000
100000150000200000250000300000
US$'000
2007 2008 2009
Year
Total Assets
05000
1000015000200002500030000
US$'000
2007 2008 2009
Year
EBITDA
15
Historical Gross MarginBy Activity
16
Capital Market Performance
Listed on LuSE in 2008Current valuation (Dec-09 results):
P/E 7.85 timesP/BV 0.55 timesDividend yield 11.5%
CEC has policy of paying out dividends twice per year
17
Framework for Growth Projects in Energy Sector
Growth in electricity sector driven by:Unprecedented growth in mining, agriculture, constructionAttractive un-developed hydro, thermal and transmission projectsPower shortages creating imperative to invest
Opportunities for private sector to participate in generation and distribution projectsGovernment has formulated legislation in support of Public Private Partnerships for infrastructure projectsRegulatory framework in place in support of energy sector developmentCEC’s membership to SAPP provides opportunity to supply power in regional market
18
Award of Feasibility Study : Nov 2008 Study Commencement : June 2009Estimated Study Completion : May 2010Negotiating Concession : 2010Preparation & Construction : 2010 - 2014Operation : 2015
Kabompo Gorge HydroProposed Implementation Schedule
19
Diversity of power supply sources
Contribute towards reducing expected deficits
Stabilising effect on main grid
Emergency power supply source
Possible supply to new mines in the area
Possible use in electrification of NW Province
Benefits from Kabompo Hydro Station
20
Kabompo Project – Preliminary Feasibility Study Results
Potential Power Generation
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Plant Size MW
Avg
An
nu
al G
Wh
Plant Capacity MW 30MW 40MW
Max Flow m3/s 24 32
Energy GWh 163 166
Load Factor % 69 52
Capital Costs, USD million (excl Trline)
30MW 40MW
Plant & EquipmentDevelopment costsSite PreparationsForestry DeptResettlementLand acquisition & roadsSocial infrastructureTotal USD million
78.86.0
10.31.42.02.04.0
104.5
86.46.0
11.41.42.02.04.0
113.2
21
Conclusion -Aspects of CEC Stock
Business fundamentalsZambia is a stable, growing, developing countryCEC has a 12 year profit and dividend historyExposure to mining and energy sectors, both enjoying a sustained growth phase
Future growth opportunity:New generation and transmission starting with Kabompo Gorge Hydro [circa $120m]Optic fibre communications infrastructure
Possible future right issue