UCSB Bren School of Environmental Science and Management

Santa Barbara, California

Community Symposium

Mobility Systems Challenges and Opportunities

David Raney

Raney Associates

October 26, 2011

Deepwater Horizon Disaster

Source: NASA

Industry regulation & enforcement still lacking. Particularly problematic in developing countries.

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Location Date Pollutants Symptoms and Effects

Meuse Valley, Belgium

December 1-5, 1930

SO2

(9.6 – 38.4 ppm)

63 excess deaths, chest pain, eye and nasal irritation, all

ages affected

Donora, Pennsylvania

October 26-31, 1948

SO2, particles

(0.5 – 2 ppm)

20 excess deaths, chest pain, cough, eye and nasal

irritation, older people mainly affected

Poza Rica, Mexico

November 24, 1950

H2S 22 excess deaths, 320 hospitalized, all ages

affected

London, England

December 5-9, 1952

SO2, particles

4000 excess deaths

New York City November 24-30,

1966 SO2, particles

168 excess deaths

Air Pollution Episodes

Public shocks were stimulus for eventual action.

Occupy Clean Air

Optimists Club Meeting 1952

Photochemical Smog in Los Angeles

Source: LA Times Collection, Department of Special Collections, UCLA Library

First Reported Photograph of Smog, July 29, 1943

L.A. Civic Center, 1948

California in 1950 • Population 11 Million • Vehicles 4.5 Million

Dr. Arie Haagen-Smit 1900 - 1977

My Family’s Car in the 1960’s

One of the last model’s produced with no on-board emission controls

U.S. National Highway System

1955 Map Projecting Highway Construction by 1965

• Lobbied heavily by Detroit auto industry

• Supported by President Dwight Eisenhower

• Funded by Federal Highway Act of 1956

• Approximately 46,000 miles of concrete

Key Milestones

1800 Process of electrolysis discovered; important for future hydrogen fuel cell development

1870 John D. Rockfeller forms Standard Oil paving way for petroleum becoming most significant energy

source in the United States

1900-1935 Electric vehicles lost out to the internal combustion engine

1901 Birth of the modern oil industry; discovery of vast Texas Spindletop Oil Field

1952 Dr. Arie Haagen-Smit confirms fundamentals of formation of photochemical smog

1954 French chemist Eugene Houdry developed a working prototype of a catalytic converter for cars

1960 OPEC formed in Baghdad, Iraq.

1961 First automotive emission regulation established by California Motor Vehicle State Bureau of Air

Sanitation to control positive crankcase ventilation.

1967-1968 CARB formed. Dr. Haagen-Smit appointed chairman by Governor Ronald Reagan.

1970 Federal Clean Air Act amendments. Established federal authority to control air pollution.

1973 OPEC oil embargo.

1975 EPACT passed by U.S. Congress establishing provisions for CAFÉ standards

1976 Volvo and Saab introduce first cars equipped with three-way catalytic converter to control HC, NOx

and CO exhaust emissions

1990 California adopts LEV standards establishing itself as a global leader in emissions regulation; set the

stage for 20-plus years of trying to force electric vehicle markets

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Federal 8-Hour Ozone Standard Violations – Los Angeles County 1975 - 2010

Source: http://www.arb.ca.gov/adam/trends/graphs

Tremendous progress since 1975

8-Hour Ozone Non-attainment Areas (1997 Standard)

California 8-Hour Ozone Non-attainment Areas (1997 Standard)

Local Monitoring

Critical Milestone – Automotive Catalytic Converter

French Chemist Eugene Houdry

Patented Converter in 1949

Thirty Years Would Pass Before

Mass Production on New Cars

The Workhorse of Exhaust Emissions Control

Obstacles:

• Poisoning of catalyst from lead in gasoline

• Durability and cost

• Lack of electronic closed-loop feedback control

Oxygen Sensor Enables 3-Way Closed-Loop Control

Target of Lambda = 1 for stoichiometric operation

Source: Auto/Oil Air Quality Improvement Research Program, 1997

Arrows indicate a decrease or increase in particular

gasoline component

Red indicates negative impact on emissions and green indicates positive impact.

N.S. indicates emissions impact is Not Significant.

Relationship Between Improved Fuel and Emissions - Gasoline

Significant Progress 1975 – 2010 With Further Projected Improvement Thru 2020

Reactive Organic Gases (ROG)

NOx Source: CARB

Honda CR-Z (AV-S7)

U.S. 2011 LDV-LDT Fleet – Combined Fuel Economy Label Values

Toyota Prius

Ford Escape

Audi A3 & VW Jetta (diesel)

Lexus CT 200h

U.S. 2011 LDV-LDT Fleet – Combined Fuel Economy Label Values

Efficiency Exists And Has Been Masked

Source: U.S. EPA

U.S. Light Duty Vehicle Fleet – Car & Truck

Weight Reduction Potential Significant

Interesting Note – Detroit successfully fought fuel economy regulation increases for over 15 years claiming that increases would lead to more motor

vehicle fatalities due to downsizing of the fleet. Honda eventually successfully refuted these claims with fundamental accident research.

Safety and Fuel Economy Are Interrelated

California GHG Emissions Inventory 2002-2004 (469 MMT CO2e)

Recycling/Waste,

1%

Res & Com, 9%

High GWP, 3%

Agriculture, 6%

Industrial, 19%

Electricity

(Imports), 12%

Electricity (In

State), 11%

Transportation,

38%

Electric Vehicles (EV’s) >>> Emissions Elsewhere Vehicles (EEV’s)

Beijing Traffic

China’s Government Imposed Controls in 2008 Achieved 29.65% Improvement

In API From Pre-Olympic Activity Year Before, But 60% Of Improvement

Dissipated One Year After Olympic Games. Improvement Was Real

But Only Temporary

Most Polluted World Cities by PM

Particulate Matter μg/m³ (2004)

City

169 Cairo Egypt

150 Delhi India

128 Kolkatta India

125 Tianjin China

123 Chongqing China

109 Kanpur India

109 Lucknow India

104 Jakarta Indonesia

101 Shenyang China

The Developing World Is Becoming Our Problem

Developing

World

OECD

Criteria Pollutant Control GHG Reduction

Criteria Pollutant Control

GHG Reduction

Important Differences

In-Use Enforcement Evolved

In-Use Enforcement An After-

Thought

Countries with the highest CO2 emissions

Country

Carbon dioxide

emissions per

year (106 Tons) (2006)

Percentage of global

total

Avg. emission

per Km2 of its land (Tons)

China 6,103 21.5% 636

United States

5,752 20.2% 597

Russia 1,564 5.5% 91

India 1,510 5.3% 459

Japan 1293 4.6% 3421

Germany 805 2.8% 2254

United Kingdom

568 2.0% 2338

Canada 544 1.9% 54

South Korea

475 1.7% 4758

Italy 474 1.7% 1573

Countries with the highest per capita CO2 emissions

Country

Carbon dioxide emissions per year (Tons per person)

(2006)

Qatar 56.2

United Arab Emirates 32.8

Kuwait 31.2

Bahrain 28.8

Trinidad and Tobago 25.3

Luxembourg 24.5

Netherlands Antilles 22.8

Aruba 22.3

United States 19

Australia 18.1

Global Trends

China Ranked #78 in 2006 per capita emissions)

Source: U.S. DOE

China Demand Projected To Outpace Global Historical Experience

China Lags In CO2 Per Capita But Leads In Total CO2 Emissions

R&D Expenditure Data Could Be Misleading Due To U.S. Experience

California’s Goals Beyond AB32 Are Phenomenal

Source: iCET

Global Efforts Are Underway To Mitigate GHG Emissions

Image of Future U.S. CAFÉ Standard Requirements – Obama NOI 2010

Scenario Forecasts In EPA/NHTSA Joint NOI For Forecast for 2017-2025 Fuel Economy

Perhaps Most Probable Pathways Are A, B, and C

(10% EV Penetration Highly Unlikely)

Fuel Economy Improvement Projections From Weight Reduction

Transportation Policy Is Most Expensive

Sources: U.S. Department of Transportation

Under 30, 84% vs. 72%

Real Trends but Causes Uncertain

• Boomer proximity to retirement growing 5%/year

• High unemployment among 30 and under bracket

• Cost of vehicle ownership

• Slow pace of population growth in 16-29 bracket

• Internet and mobile phone connectivity

• Lack of convenience – can’t text while driving

• Graduated drivers license regulations in states

• Loss of drivers education in high schools

• Increased environmental awareness

Demographic Uncertainties

Trends in Distribution of Person Trips per Person

Note: Personal VMT by Public Transit continues to decline. 2009 is less than 1.5% of all VMT

What Will Affect VMT Growth Or Mitigation In The Future?

• Rural VMT is about 50% of Urban VMT • 88% of all VMT is LDV related

Source: Federal Highway Administration

Consumer Influences

Real Fuel Cost - % Of Disposable Income

Two Different Forms of Consumer Response

Source: www.clemson.edu

Gas Station Line – 1973 (Result of OPEC oil embargo and real gasoline shortages)

Gas Station Line – 2008 (This station selling gas at $3.64/gal

while station down the street is selling for $3.89/gal)

1990 Global Reserves: 1.1 Trillion BBL

Production 1990 to 2010: 0.6 Trillion BBL

2010 Global Reserves: 1.2 Trillion BBL

Geological endowment

Technically recoverable resources

Reported reserves

Production

Peak Oil vs. Reality

Industry

Metrics

Illustration of “MPG Illusion”

Miles Per Gallon

Gal

lon

s p

er 1

,000

Mil

es

Effective Marketing Tools Do Exist

Consumption metric has

advantages over distance

travelled metric relative to

purchase decisions and in-use

performance monitoring

ZEV Type Performance Definition Credit per vehicle

2009-2017

2018 and later

V

300-plus mile range with fast fueling 7 3

IV

200-plus mile range with fast fueling 5 3

III

100-plus range with fast fueling or 200-

plus mile range 4 3

II

100-plus mile range 3 3

I.5

75-100 mile range 2.5 2.5

I

50-75 mile range 2 2

0

Less than 50 mile range 1 1

NEV

No minimum 0.3 0.3

CARB’s ZEV Credit Scheme – Misguided Policy?

Credit scheme in ZEV

regulation drives

vehicle OEMs toward

higher range vehicles

for compliance stategy,

but also much higher

cost vehicles, limiting

market potential and

missing critical and

possibly broader

markets for lower range

more affordable ZEVs.

Types III, IV, and V: Extremely high cost so not optimal choice

Types I, I-5 , and II: Very high cost so not optimal choice

Type 0: More affordable but requires much greater production volume

New Pathways: Government & Industry Collaboration

Industrial Ecology

(Metasystem)

Traditional

Economic

Analysis

Firm

Manufacturing

Pricing

Decisions

Marketing &

Financial

Analysis

Consumer

Behavior

Political/

Regulatory

Behavior

Legal/

Cultural

Institutions

Traditional

Academic

Disciplines

Scientific &

Engineering

Activity

Missing

Linkages

Source: Allenby (1992) and NAS

New Pathways: Government & Industry Collaboration

Industrial Ecology

(Metasystem)

Traditional

Economic

Analysis

Firm

Manufacturing

Pricing

Decisions

Marketing &

Financial

Analysis

Consumer

Behavior

Political/

Regulatory

Behavior

Legal/

Cultural

Institutions

Traditional

Academic

Disciplines

Scientific &

Engineering

Activity

Missing

Linkages

Source: Allenby (1992) and NAS

Tremendous

opportunity for

Academia to work

on missing linkages

through new

thinking

Identify Critical Uncertainties Around:

• Economics and Power Structures

• Society and Culture

• Technology and Industry

• Environmental and Resource Challenges

Keep Asking…..

1. What is important to the citizenry

and why

2. Who has power to affect change

3. How can and will changes be made

Global Community

Rallies Around Values-

Based Causes

$

Global

Citizenry

We’ll Do

It

Our Way

Price Is

Right

Socio-Political Scenarios for Next 50 Year Context of Mobility Systems

Source: WBCSD

Challenges

• Using free markets to address sustainability

• Promoting a privatized infrastructure

• Addressing needs of “have-not” nations and inherent tensions

• Creating momentum for sustainability absent citizenry support

• Creating useful mechanisms for global technical standards

• Addressing congestion and ad hoc urban planning

• Promoting carbon sequestration or some other solution to offset

• Impacts of fossil fuel consumption impacts

• Addressing global energy security

Influential Societal Norms

Habits Do Change!

Any applicability here to motor vehicles and new trends relative to

social acceptability based on what we drive?

Priorities Have Changed

Then Now

Collaboration Is Underway

$150M Shared Contribution Between

China and U.S Over Five Years -

University Of Michigan

Leading on Clean Vehicles and WVU

Leading on Coal

Santa Barbara – Weihai Collaboration?

Santa Barbara Sister City In China –

Weihai, Shandong Province

Significant populations continue to suffer through what Los Angeles did pre-1985

Knowledge from past in OECD should

continue to be applied effectively

and with haste in the developing world