Turnover survey on the services sector

Presentation by Daniel Lennartsson 2009-09-10/11

Mail daniel.lennartsson@scb.se

Authors: Annika Lindblom and Markus Thorsteinsen

Disposition

1. Demands from users

2. Method until 2007

3. Surveydesign today

4. VAT legislation

5. Aim of this project

6. Is it possible to use VAT data

7. First study concerning first quarter 2009

1. Demands from users – Other services

User Activity breakdown Timeliness Periodicity

Eurostat Details T+60 Quarterly

National accounts Details-88 activities T+45 (T+25) Quarterly

Others (NB, Ministry, NIER) Main aggregates T+30 Monthly

2. Survey method on Other services until 2007

The Swedish parliament approved a change in return period from month to quarter, in force from January 2008 in the VAT data

Demands from users changed from January 2008 from quarterly to monthly

Until 2008 we used a mixture of:

• administrative data (VAT) from the Swedish Tax Authority – used for all small enterprises

– Current Ratio Method used for imputation

• data collected from questionnaires – used for all large enterprises

• a few NACE acitivties were based only on questionnaires

2. Effects of the new regulation

• Due to effect of the change demands from users it was hard to use VAT data before it was investigated

• Due to timeliness VAT data for small enterprises is complicated to use in the survey on Other services

• The change in return period for small enterprises meant that Stat Sweden was forced to collect the information direct from enterprises

• Response burden increased

3. Surveydesign today

Other services:

- Monthly survey to approx 4 500 enterprises each month. Results Total service production and six aggregates. T+35

- Quarterly suvey to additional 5 500 enterprise. Monthly information collected. Results for 88 activities. T+45

4. VAT- Change in the legislation

The Swedish Parliament approved a change in return period from month to quarter, in force from first January 2008, regarding small enterprises.

Enterprises with an estimated annual turnover:

exceeding 40 million SEK are, as before, required to report VAT on a monthly basis

below or equal to 40 million SEK are required to report VAT on a quarterly basis

4. Time points for submission of the VAT-return

The VAT-return for a large monthly enterprise must be submitted at the latest about 25 days after the end of the reference month

The VAT-return for a small quarterly enterprise must be submitted at the latest about 40 days after the end of the reference quarter

Statistics Sweden need the VAT-data about 35 days after the end of the reference quarter

5. Aim of this project

Statistics Sweden approach is to:

use a sample survey (and collect information direct from the enterprises) for a monthly indicator

explore the possibility to use VAT-data for small enterprises in the production of the detailed quarterly estimates

Study different methods to use observed values in the VAT-data to compensate for enterprises not submitted the VAT return, due to timeliness.

6. Proportion of turnover after reference period

Nace Year basis Quaterly Monthly small Monthly Large Share50 1 8 15 75 10051 1 7 9 84 100

52 2 14 19 66 10055 4 27 37 31 10060 2 13 31 54 10061 1 4 8 87 10062 0 2 3 95 10063 1 6 10 83 100

64 0 1 1 98 10070 2 27 21 50 10071 1 15 20 63 10072 2 13 14 71 10073 0 2 4 95 10074 2 20 23 55 10090 0 6 12 82 10092 1 7 9 83 10093 2 22 44 32 100

Totalt 1 10 14 74 100

6. Proportion of enterprises after referenceperiod

Nace Year basis Quaterly Monthly small Monthly Large Share50 7 34 53 5 10051 7 39 43 11 10052 10 39 50 2 10055 12 36 51 1 10060 7 28 64 2 10061 10 40 41 9 10062 6 37 34 23 10063 9 34 46 12 10064 9 37 41 13 100

70 18 49 31 2 10071 9 39 48 4 10072 13 46 37 4 10073 21 36 38 5 10074 15 43 40 2 10090 5 29 54 12 10092 25 38 35 2 100

93 10 32 58 1 100Totalt 12 39 46 3 100

6. Proportion of turnover that has been reported within 38 days after the expiredate of the reference period

NACE For all Periods One month of three Two month of three* No data** Share50 80 0 11 9 10051 87 0 5 7 10052 72 0 13 15 10055 41 0 27 32 10060 61 0 24 15 10061 89 0 5 5 10062 95 0 2 3 10063 86 0 6 7 10064 98 0 1 1 10070 64 0 12 25 10071 70 0 13 16 10072 76 0 8 16 10073 96 0 2 2 10074 63 0 14 23 10090 84 0 8 8 10092 85 0 6 9 10093 44 0 31 25 100

Totalt 79 0 10 12 100* In this group 97 procent comes from monthly reporting enterprises

** In this group 26 procent comes from monthly reporting enterprises and 69 procent from quaterly reporting companies

6. Imputation data for monthly providers

Activity Data for all three months Data for two out of three months Share50 11 812 40 969 2251 25 235 61 291 2952 14 311 50 464 2255 5 432 25 342 1860 7 421 37 994 1661 708 1 994 2662 109 1 064 963 4 037 11 379 2664 266 956 2270 8 510 16 463 3471 1 208 3 887 2472 4 151 11 354 2773 1 100 1 852 3774 14 364 46 648 2490 439 1 491 2392 899 3 475 2193 1 188 5 207 19

Totalt 105 485 335 500 24

6. Imputation data for quarterly providers

Activity Data for a whole quarter No data Share50 18 824 25 010 4351 45 327 61 634 4252 25 932 45 878 3655 10 446 22 643 3260 11 642 16 343 4261 777 1 363 3662 206 861 1963 6 497 9 605 4064 582 972 3770 19 679 28 218 4171 2 307 3 487 4072 8 338 16 165 3473 1 476 1 019 5974 28 987 55 247 3490 714 857 4592 1 814 3 844 3293 1 995 2 929 41Totalt 191 817 303 240 39

7. Study concerning the first quarter year 2009The objective of the study was to evaluate differences

between estimates based only on observed VAT-data and estimates based on VAT-data where imputation has been used for a number of enterprises due to timeliness.

– VAT-data on all four quarters year 2008 can be observed

– At this time point, VAT-data for all enterprises regarding the first quarter year 2009 can be observed

7. Timeliness for enterprises reporting monthly and need for imputationDue to timeliness the third month often is

missing in the VAT-data for a specific quarter (about 80% of the monthly enterprises)

To produce quarterly estimates using VAT- data values for the third month has to be imputed for the majority of the small monthly enterprises

Current Ratio Imputation (by industry)

7. Current Ratio imputation

The current ratio imputation works as follows:

1ky enterprise k:s turnover value month one

2ky enterprise k:s turnover value month two

3ky enterprise k:s turnover value month three

The imputed turnover value for enterprise k month three:

CRyyy kkk 213ˆ

rkk

rk

yy

y

21

3

CR

7. Timeliness for enterprises reporting quarterly and need for imputationDue to timeliness values for the specific

quarter often is missing in the VAT-data (about 82% of the quarterly enterprises)

Two imputation methods were used:

-Current Ratio Imputation (by industry)

-Imputation by average in strata (based on industry and size)

7. Imputation of quarterly enterprises

The monthly enterprises imputed by CR are regarded as observed values when the quarterly enterprises is CR or AV imputed

1)For enterprises with an observed value Q1 2009 , use VAT-data for all four quarters year 2008 in the CR imputation

2)Impute missing quarterly enterprises with the turnover average in stratum, based on observed and imputed values for monthly enterprises Q1 2009

7. Observed values vs imputed values by CR imputation and imputation by average in strata, AV

NACE Number of Observed Observed and DeviationRev 2 enterprises turnover imputed turnover in %, CR

36-39 718 9 378.0 9 421.2 0.4645-47 68 513 431 128.0 432 448.6 0.3149-53 22 693 92 467.6 92 765.7 0.3255-55 19 559 23 662.9 23 764.5 0.4358-75 91 886 197 353.8 198 202.3 0.4377-82 13 612 44 626.3 44 594.3 -0.0785-88 21 414 18 592.1 18 823.7 1.2590-96 21 470 19 506.8 19 742.9 1.21