Tsunami warning agreements with the CTBTO

Presented at the

Eighth meeting of the Working Group on Tsunamis and Other Hazards Related to Sea-Level Warning and Mitigation Systems IOC/TOWS-WG-VIII

12 - 13 March 2015, Morioka, Japan

Martin Kalinowski

Capacity Building and Training Section

International Data Centre Division

Provisional Technical Secretariat of the Preparatory Commission for the

Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO)

Vienna International Centre, P.O. Box 1200, A-1400 Vienna, Austria

I. Introduction to the CTBTO and the International Monitoring System (IMS)

II. Tsunami warning with IMS data

Overview

I. Introduction to the CTBTO and the International Monitoring System (IMS)

Elements of the CTBT Verification Regime

InternationalMonitoring

System321 stations:

seismic,hydro-acoustic,

infrasound,radionuclide

IDC&GCI

Consultation and

Clarification

Right to clarify matters indicating

possible non-compliance

On-SiteInspection

Conduct ofon-site

verification activities

Confidence BuildingMeasures

Large chemical Explosions:

Prevent misinterpretations

and calibrate seismic IMS component

IFE = Integrated Field Experiment3 November -9 December 2014

The complete International Monitoring System: 337

Seismic Primary ArraySeismic Primary 3-comp Station

Seismic Auxiliary ArraySeismic Auxiliary 3-comp Station

Hydroacoustic (hydrophone) StationHydroacoustic (T-phase) Station

Infrasound StationRadionuclide StationRadionuclide Lab

Seismic Primary ArraySeismic Primary 3-comp Station

Seismic Auxiliary ArraySeismic Auxiliary 3-comp Station

Hydroacoustic (hydrophone) StationHydroacoustic (T-phase) Station

Infrasound StationRadionuclide StationRadionuclide Lab

Seismic Primary ArraySeismic Primary 3-comp Station

Seismic Auxiliary ArraySeismic Auxiliary 3-comp Station

Hydroacoustic (hydrophone) StationHydroacoustic (T-phase) Station

Infrasound StationRadionuclide StationRadionuclide Lab

Demonstrated effectiveness of the International Monitoring System

• Xenon-131m and xenon-133• Detected at Takasaki, Japan, and

Ussuriysk, Russia• Estimated date of fission coincides

with 12 February 2013• DPRK site identified as possible

source using ATM

Error Ellipses for 2006, 2009 and 2013 DPRK Announced Nuclear Tests

Civil and Scientific Applications

International Monitoring System data can be applied forTsunami warning

SumatraDecember

2004

Aviation hazards

EyjafjallajokulMarch 2010

UralsFebruary 2013

MeteoritesFukushima

March 2011

Radiation releases

Earthquake monitoring

Emergency Preparedness and Response After Fukushima Accident

This picture show time development of detections for each day after the accident. Level 5Level 5 = multiple fission products detected, Level 4Level 4 = one fission products detected, Level 3Level 3 = fission products typical for the station detected. Level 1 and 2 Level 1 and 2 = only natural radioactivity detected

CTBTO member of the Inter-Agency Committee on Radiological and Nuclear Emergencies

(IACRNE) since 14.3.2012

CTBTO operates a unique global network of highly-sensitive detectors of atmospheric radioactivity.

II. Tsunami warning with IMS data

Tsunami Arrangement/Agreement: Present Status map

Data forwarding configured for 14 Tsunami Warning Centres in 13 States

•Australia•France•Greece•Indonesia•Japan•Malaysia•Myanmar•Philippines•Republic of Korea •Russian Federation•Thailand•Turkey•USA Currently 98 stations are used for TW.

IDC/CBT

Data Forwarded to each Tsunami Warning Center

The Numbers above each bar indicate the number of Centres actively receiving data (>0 MB) in that year.

NOTE: the USA has TWO centres (Hawaii and Alaska) however the total count for USA is only shown once.

Conclusions: The number of tsunami warning agreements is increasing as well as the volume of IMS data used for this purpose.

Steps in a Tsunami Alert

Page 12

Data Delay: Transmission

CTBTO/IMS: 30 seconds at most

Page 13Conclusions: The IMS data are rapidly available.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300delay (sec)

perc

enta

ge

LISS,IRIS

CTBTO/IMS

CTBTO/IMS(under upgrading)

Data Delay: Receipt

CTBTO/IMS: 30 seconds at most LISS: 100 seconds on average IRIS: 180 seconds on average

Source: N. NISHIDENWPTAC Japan

Page 14

Summary

• The number of tsunami warning agreements is increasing: 14 tsunami warning centres.

• The volume of IMS data used for this purpose increases: >2 TB/y from 98 stations.

• More tsunami warning centres are encouraged to seek an agreement with the CTBTO.

THANK YOUThe figures used in this presentation are approximate and based on official government sources, as well as on information provided by research institutions such as the Natural Resources Defence Council in Washington D.C., and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).