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Watson Collins, Technical Executive

Environmental Leader & Energy Manager Conference

May 14, 2019

Transportation Electrification Impacts of High Power Charging

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Agenda

Electric Vehicle Market Update

Emerging Technology Trends…EV’s and DC Fast Charging

Efficient Electrification Outreach…Symposiums and Conference

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Global drivers of the electric car market

Perspective on the EV market/demand

– Entire US car market down 3.4% through Q1 20191

– US Q1 2019 EV sales up % over 2018

Global light-duty car regulations

USA China2 Europe 10 ZEV states have stricter

requirements starting in 20193

2019 - 10% ZEV (31 mile range

for PHEV credits)

2018 requirement 130 g CO2 per km

driven (Germans ~120 g)

2020 - 12% ZEV (1M annual EV

sales, ~4% of market)

2021 requirements of 95 g CO2 per

km driven ($ subsidy < 50 g CO2)

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Global drivers of the electric bus and truck market

Market supply

– China built 99% of the world’s electric buses (2014-2017)1

– BYD builds electric buses, semis, drayage trucks, garbage trucks

Global heavy-duty vehicle regulation

USA China2 Europe CARB – 100% ZEV buses by

2040; ZEV shuttle bus rule

coming

Following Europe. Currently at

China V (Euro V)

2025 Europe (versus 2019)3

15% lower CO2

CARB – Advanced (ZEV) truck

rule in process

Moving to China VI (Euro VI) in July

2019 (gas), 2020 (urban), 2021

(all)2

2030 Europe (versus 2019)3

30% lower CO2

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Boulder, CO (8.7%)

white = 2.0% (2018 national

average)

Santa Clara (20.9%)

Alameda (16.6%)

Marin (15.1%)

San Francisco (11.7%)

Contra Costa (11.5%)

Benton, OR (5.6%)

King, WA (6.8%)

Jefferson, WA (6.8%)

San Juan, WA (7.7%)

Note: Highlighted counties indicate top

5 nationwide (all within California) and

top 15 outside of California. Juneau, AK

ranks 44th nationwide.

162 counties in 28 states have > 2.0% EV sales (2018)

Hood River, OR (4.4%)

Multnomah, OR (5.1%)

Summit, UT (4.7%)

Clear Creek, CO (4.7%)

Ouray, CO (4.5%)

Middlesex, MA (4.4%)

Tompkins, NY (5.1%)

Falls Church, VA (5.0%)

Orange, NC (5.3%)

Juneau, AK (4.4%)

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Quarterly EV Sales show increase in % BEV in 2018

1 999

452

3 423

3 324

2 863 2 288 1 759 2 516

7 205 8 966

13 364

12 713

12 473

10 845

14 902 18 089

19 366

14 112

20 012

17 050

19 775

15 115

20 470

26 395 24 751

21 410

22 812

30 058

30 191

28 909

34 517

80 600

90 699

0 0 0 0

326

1 210

1 535

1 150

3 926 5 276 8 787

11 368

14 503

8 222

10 114 14 383

16 290

11 249

17 880

15 017 11 211

7 722

10 787

10 660

13 774

12 336

17 673

19 120

24 559

19 447

23 404

22 794

25 258 28 909

31 323

29 577

35 843

0 0 0 0 0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

100 000

110 000

120 000

130 000

140 000

De

c-1

0

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

BEV PHEV

~72%

BEV, Q4

~28%

PHEV,

Q4

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Customer choice increasing with ~130 EVs by 2023 Opportunity for utilities with AC home and work as well as DC fast charging

Updated 3/12/2019

70-80% of retail charging will be done

with standard AC charger on-board

EVs for overnight or at-work charging

DC fast charging suitable for public

charging to enable fast charging of EVs

with increasingly larger battery kWh

sizes in 15-20 minutes’ time

Off-board DC power can scale up from

tens of kW to several MW from light-

duty EVs up to 350kW to commercial

fleet up to several MW

© 2019 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. w w w . e p r i . c o m 8 Updated 3/11/2019

Driving range of BEVs increasing to ~264 miles by 2022 Opportunity for utilities with AC home and work as well as DC fast charging

Five key use cases for DC fast

charging include enabling customers

without overnight charging, long-

distance road trips, commercial and

fleet EVs, ride share drivers, and

potentially future autonomous EVs

DC-as-a-service technology delivers

DC in a modular manner, tied to

medium-voltage distribution and

enables integration of on-site

renewables and storage for minimal

grid impacts

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$13M

$2.5M (~5,000/0)

$1.2M (0/12)

$2.8M (0/2)

$253M $22M $573M

$45M $244M

$10M

$4.6M

$10M

$130M

$4.2M (245/5)

$3.4M

$760M

$15M

$10.45M (2,400/37)

$8M $76M

$20M (920/16)

$0.4M

$0.5M (0/9)

$10.5M

$45M

$2.0M (1,175/107)

$25M

$25M

$20M (200/300)

$11M

$1.7M

$18M

$3.7M

$14.9M

$300M

$1.5M (137/0)

$15M

$250M

Narragansett

Key Challenges

EV awareness

Customer education

Easy and reliable public charging infrastructure (to find, access, use, and pay)

Legend [Budget $ (L2/DCFC)]

Make-ready / rebate

Utility-owned

Hybrid

Updated: 4/1/2019

Utilities are proposing ~$3.7B in EV charging infrastructure

$10.2M

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2019 Auto Shows

Geneva (March 2019) – lots of plug-ins, but Europe-only?

Source: FCA media site, Audi.com media site

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Who likes to save $?

Source: NYC fleet newsletter; The Atlas

• Costs from

1,893 fleet

vehicles

• 197

PHEVs

• 246

BEVs

• 1,336

HEVs

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Public DC fast charging infrastructure is increasing

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Electric Vehicles 13-94% of New U.S. Light-Duty Sales in 2050: What Can We Learn from the Analyses???

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Electric Vehicle Share of New Light-Duty Sales

NREL – LO

EIA AEO 2019 IEA WEO 2018 – REF

NREL – MID

USNEA – REF

IEA WEO 2018 – Elec

BNEF 2018

NREL – HI

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Electric Vehicles 13-84% of New Light-Duty Sales in 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Electric Vehicle Share of New Light-Duty Sales

EIA AEO 2019

IEA WEO 2018 – REF

Selected Insights:

• Government projections are conservative:

• EIA and IEA in lockstep in 2040 – 13%

and 15% respectively, despite

assumed ownership cost parity by

2020-2030

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Electric Vehicles 13-84% of New Light-Duty Sales in 2050

Assumptions About Customer Acceptance of New Technology Drives Large Range of Projections More than Assumed EV Cost Differences

Selected Insights:

• Government projections are conservative:

• EIA and IEA in lockstep in 2040 – 13%

and 15% respectively, despite

assumed ownership cost parity by

2020-2030

• IEA’s “Future is Electric” scenario – EV

share rises from 15% to 60% when

customer decisions based solely on

vehicle economics

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Electric Vehicle Share of New Light-Duty Sales

EIA AEO 2019 IEA WEO 2018 – REF

IEA WEO 2018 – Elec

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Electric Vehicles 13-84% of New Light-Duty Sales in 2050

Assumptions About Customer Acceptance of New Technology (More than Technology Cost) Drives Large Range of Projections

Selected Insights:

• Government projections are conservative:

• EIA and IEA in lockstep in 2040 – 13%

and 15% respectively, despite assumed

ownership cost parity by 2020-2030

• IEA’s “Future is Electric” scenario – EV

share rises from 15% to 60% when

customer decisions based solely on

vehicle economics

• USNEA Reference is aggressive, but not the

highest or lowest

• Between NREL’s Mid and Hi-Scenarios

• Matches BNEF and IEA “Future is Electric” projections for 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Electric Vehicle Share of New Light-Duty Sales

NREL – LO

EIA AEO 2019

IEA WEO 2018 – REF

NREL – MID

USNEA – REF

IEA WEO 2018 – Elec

BNEF 2018

NREL – HI

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Emerging Technology Trends…Transportation

Vehicle Technologies

Battery Technologies

Commercial & Industrial EVs

Future Technologies

Charging Infrastructure

DC Fast Charging

Charging Infrastructure

Planning & Development

Utility Grid Integration

EV Load Profiles and Grid Impacts

Understanding EV Rates

Integration of EVs Across T&D

Market, Policy, and Programs

Customer Preferences

PV Programs

Policy Objectives

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Impact of Trends

Cell price reductions enable larger sized vehicle

batteries and cost reductions of vehicles.

Electrified models in most vehicle segments and

in all markets across the country.

Electrification is associated with most future

vehicle trends.

Vehicle packaging considerations and high-power

charging call for off-board AC-to-DC power

conversion for vehicles.

Data-based decision making and vehicle-grid

integration (VGI) charging approaches will be

increasingly important for infrastructure growth and

planning.

Utilities will need high quality data to support

analysis and program development.

Data-based market analysis is increasingly

important to identify preferences to effectively

attract a larger, diverse audience.

Integration of EVs has a growing role within

the T&D organizations and operations

functions of utilities.

Increased attention to EV rates as adoption

rates grow to manage grid impacts and align

customer rate with underlying supply costs.

Integration of driving patterns, battery state of

charge, and grid needs into EV supply

decisions.

Utilities may be asked to engage in

transportation policy debates.

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Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity