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TRANSFORMATIONAL SHIFT IN MOBILITY: Technology Disruptions and Innovations

Driving Growth

Contents

Technology Trends & Developments 03

Top Trends for the Automotive Industry 02

Global Light Vehicle Sales – Snapshot 01

Global Light Vehicle Sales – Snapshot

Global LV Sales by Region in 2018 and 2019—Snapshot Global LV sales expected to continue growing in 2019 because of Eastern Europe and South America, while sales in North America would slow

2

Key: Sales data published by respective automotive associations of countries might vary because of difference in reporting structure

*Rest of World breakdowns are not available Source: Frost & Sullivan

2018

Africa 0.6%

Asia-Pacific 44.8%

Eastern & Central

Europe 4.5%

Middle East 4.8%

North America

21.6%

Rest of World

2.5%

Latin America

4.2%

Western Europe 17.0%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Africa Asia-Pacific Eastern Europe Middle East North America Latin America Western Europe

China 27.3

Japan 5.2

India 4.0 South Korea 1.8

Indonesia 1.1

2018

0.5

~1% year-on-year (YoY) growth expected

2019

Africa 0.6%

Asia-Pacific 44.7%

Eastern & Central Europe 4.8%

Middle East 5.3%

North America

21.2%

Rest of World 2.9%

Latin America 4.4%

Western Europe 16.8%

97.0 M Units 96.1 M Units

Rest of Asia-Pacific 3.7

Russia 1.8

Turkey 0.6

Poland 0.6

Rest of Eastern

Europe 1.3

Iran 1.4

Saudi Arabia 0.5

Rest of Middle East

3.2

US 17.3

Canada 2.0

Mexico 1.4

Argentina 0.8

Brazil 2.5

Rest of Latin America 0.8

Germany 3.8

France 2.6

Italy 2.1 Spain 1.6

Spain 1.6

Rest of Western

Europe 3.5

LV Sales, Global*, 2018, 2019

Snapshot of 2018 VW maintained the top position in global LV sales in 2018, becoming the only OEM to cross the 10 million unit sales mark

3

* Sales data published by the OEM groups might vary because of difference in reporting structure. Frost & Sullivan’s calculation includes passenger and LCV with GVWR of up to 6 MT

*GM sales includes Opel and Vauxhall sales until 2016; RNMA includes sales of Mitsubishi since 2016; PSA sales includes Opel and Vauxhall since 2017 Source: Marklines; Frost & Sullivan

Top 5 OEMs, Global, 2017 and 2018*

7.0 7.2

8.8 8.4

9.5 9.3

9.5 9.4

10.1 10.3

2017 2018

Volkswagen

RNA

Toyota

GM

Hyundai

OEMs YoY Trend

Volkswagen 1.5%

Hyundai Group 2.9%

Fiat-Chrysler 0.4%

Suzuki 5.3%

Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (RNMA)*

(1.4%)

Toyota (1.1%)

GM* (4.9%)

Ford (11.4%)

Honda (0.6%)

PSA Group* (3.0%)

Decline Growth

Top Trends for the Automotive Industry

Top Trends for the Automotive Industry in 2019 In the new year, Mobility services, Global Trade Upheavals, Software powering automotive are expected to be the biggest defining factors for the industry

5

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Ridehailing IPO

Multimodal mobility

Autonomous taxis/shuttles

Online retailers

Vehicle subscription

More efficient powertrain

Fast charging

Gen Z

LATAM sales

Sedans shrinking

Brexit horror

USMCA deal

Big data

Features on demand

Car platforms

Smart city

Fall of the dragon (China)

Automotive Industry Outlook: Top 20 Automotive Trends, Global, 2019

Big Data Powering Automotive Businesses ‘Internet of Things’ will form the foundation for transformative automotive products that include vehicle and device connectivity, autonomous driving, electric powertrains and shared mobility

6

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Automotive IoT Platforms

Description Server less IoT applications

Cloud Data Analysis

Management of connectivity, analytics and applications

Comprehensive end-to-end IoT solutions platform

Automated connectivity management platform

Solution Type Cloud based platform Cloud based platform Cloud based platform Cloud based platform Cloud based platform

Current IoT Solutions

Connected vehicles solution + customer engagement + autonomous driving

AI Assistant + Cognitive computing vehicle-to-cloud solution

AI Assistant + Big data platform + OTA service + Car-as-a-service + V2X Connectivity + Reporting + Maps-as-a-service

Azure IoT Solution Accelerators + Azure IoT Hub + Azure Edge + IoT Central (SaaS solution)

Control Centre; Premium services Smart Security & Traffic Segmentation

Key Customers

OLA, Uber, Lyft, BMW, Honda

BMW, Airwire Technologies, Honda R&D

18 Global OEMs (Names not disclosed)

Rolls Royce, MapBox, Renault Nissan

Audi, BMW, Daimler, FCA, Ford, GM, Hyundai, Honda, Jaguar, Mitsubishi, Volvo, Renault Nissan, Volkswagen

Key Partnerships/ Acquisitions

Collaborated with Deloitte for IoT Analytics

Collaborated with GM OnStar Go Platform

Acquired by Samsung in 2017

Collaborated with Dell Technologies for end-to-end IoT solutions

Collaborated with Hyundai to develop smart vehicle solutions

Future of Car Upgrades Powered by Features on Demand ‘Over the Air’ updates are expected to become more popular in upcoming vehicles as software is expected to play an increasingly dominant role in its entire operation cycle

7

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Selling Models • One Time purchase post the sale of the car – service delivery via OTA or dealership visit – HW and SW installation based on

criticality of update • Freemium: Premium features offered ass a demo and charged one off or subscription based • Short and Long Term Subscriptions – One time, monthly and yearly payment models

• Drive Mode Updates (expand on these e.g. sporty, dynamic, comfort, efficient etc.)

• Off Road Package • Horsepower • Range Extension for electrics • Automatic/Manual

Transmission • Maximum Speed • Supercharging

• Hill Assist • Adaptive Cruise Control • Highway Assist • Autonomous Parking • Auto Pilot • Severe Climate Package • Lighting – Matrix Lights • Driver Monitoring • Remote Vehicle Operation

• Media packages • Productivity suite • Safety and security • CarPlay and Android Auto • Personal Assistants • Connected LBS (RTTI and POIs) • Remote Diagnostics, Prognostics • Extension to Netflix and other

streaming services • Discounts on Marketplace • Parking

• Modular HMI (Lighting and Mood based music)

• HVAC – fragrance based • AR based projections • Skins for UI • Seating – recline and movie

mode • Premium Audio

Powertrain ADAS and AD Connected Services Smart Interiors

Car Platforms of the Future Connected Autonomous Safety Electric ‘CASE’ Convergence will lead to 3 Platforms as building blocks for autonomous vehicle development

8

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Vehicle Platform (Electric) consisting of Digital Platform consisting of

Diagnostics and Vehicle Health Monitoring

Electrical Power Systems

Backup Autonomous Driving System

Redundant Braking and Steering Systems

Ease of Use , User Delight

3D Approach for the OS

HMI and Infotainment Features

3D Car as the Menu

IoT Integration

Electronic Platform consisting of

Redundancy ECUs

Domain Controllers & Interfacing Units

Cyber Security Modules

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

5

1

2

3

Multimodal Mobility Solutions Transforming Transportation Companies will offer mobility solutions that would radically reduce the complexity in urban transportation and make commuting a breeze

9

Source: Frost & Sullivan

The global market will have more white label solutions being offered by journey planning apps for B2B and travelers

Global market will grow significantly in partnerships with public and private mobility services in 2019

Analytics and application of big data will be a key focus area to enable development and refine operations of multi-modal services

Multi-modal mobility platforms being designed in partnership with public transit authorities as part of respective city mobility strategy

Government bodies to introduce new policies for regulation of flexible on-demand transportation with a key focus on reducing carbon footprint

– Whim

Mobility Companion

Automotive Industry Outlook: Multimodal mobility Offerings, Global, 2019

Shuttles and Taxis to Become Autonomous Automotive manufacturers, mobility service providers and autonomous technology companies are working in multiple collaborations aiming to succeed in autonomous shared transportation

10

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Volvo

Hyundai

General Motors (Cruise)

Daimler

Ford (2021 Launch)

Renault Nissan Mitsubishi

Volkswagen

FCA

BMW

Tesla – 2020 Robotaxi launch in UAE

Uber Baidu Nvidia

Aurora - Moia

Aurora - Moia

Argo AI Lyft

Lyft

Transdev Waymo

Bosch

Mobileye Intel

Mobileye Intel

Lyft

ZMP Hinomaru Kotsu

Transdev Torc Robotics

Google Lyft

Nutonomy Delphi

Baidu Nvidia

2020 Robotaxi launch - Japan

Sensible 4 Muji

Autonomous Shuttles - Gacha

Autonomous Electric Shuttles

Led $1bn Investment

Acquired for $400 Mn

Launch Autonomous Vehicle

Web of Partnerships between OEM, Mobility and Technology Companies for Autonomous Shuttle and Robotaxis

Automotive Industry Outlook; Launch of Pilots for Autonomous Shuttles and Robotaxis, Global, 2019

Fuel and parking

Ordering and paying for food

Making restaurant reservations

Booking hotels

Navigation to users destination

Service offers from your preferred dealership and finding connected brands and valuable offers

Retailers Seeking More Inroads into Cars as a Marketplace Currently, OEMs do not charge for hosting the intermediary platform on the marketplace as the impressions/transactions revenues are split amongst OEM and intermediary (e.g. Xevo)

11

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Is Marketplace Driving Distraction? - Highlights • Marketplace also limits options to reduce driver distraction, for instance a coffee-shop customer can order from the car while

it is being driven, but only a few choices, based on previous orders will be displayed. • Actions that require considerable involvement or clicks such as booking a hotel room on Priceline, can be executed only

when the vehicle is stopped and in park mode.

Definition – Provide

on-demand contextual

services ranging from

In-vehicle Marketplace –

App Store + Payment (enabled

via vehicle head unit)

Car Access based Marketplace –

Concierge Services built into the

companion App (enabled via the

built in TCU)

1

2

Marketplace

Amazon Volvo

General Motors

Shell Hyundai

General Motors

Partnership with the likes of

Partnership with the likes of

Vehicle Subscription Services Set to Sky Rocket from 2020 The market is expected to reach 16.3 Million units by 2025, according to Frost & Sullivan scenario analysis, with millennials and Gen Z customers expected to form the largest base

12

Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2017 Source: Frost & Sullivan

0.0005 0.0015 0.1 0.3

1.2

2.7

4.8

7.7

11.0

16.3

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

Veh

icle

s in

Su

bsc

rip

tio

n (

Mill

ion

)

The vehicle subscription market sees participation from at least 50+ automotive brands including mainstream, premium, super premium and EV brands

Majority of OEMs target to enter 1-5 cities in the first three years of operation before going nationwide/targeting at least in 50 cities by 2025

16.3 million vehicles in subscription programs by 2025 are expected to comprise both new and used vehicles

Vehicle subscription services are expected to accelerate in developed markets with new entrants and broadening pool. In developing markets, established players are likely to experience slow growth as vehicles are considered aspirational

Vehicle Subscription Forecast, EU and US, 2016–2025

Gen ‘Z’ customers Set to Take Centerstage As the next wave of vehicle purchasers become more financially independent, OEMs are prioritizing features and vehicle capabilities for this generation, showing a distinct departure from present designs

13

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Gen Z Key Facts

Born 1993-2007 (age 10-24)

24% of the global population

Largest generation of consumers by 2020

US $29bn-$143bn in direct spending power in the US

China: 244,902,000 (17.3% of population)

India: 372,966,000 (27.5% of population)

USA: 64,715,000 (19.8% of population)

Personality Traits

of Gen Z

Digital natives

Technology reliant

Guarded on social media

Independent

Multi-tasking

Force for good

Concepts by OEMs

Mercedes-Benz Vision Tokyo Nissan Teatro for Dayz Toyota uBox

OEMs expectations in terms of Gen Z requirements revolve around key themes of vehicles being autonomous, electric, connected, customizable and efficient

EV Start-up Hotspot by Region Number of start-up's focusing on charging solutions and battery tech followed by light electric vehicle makers are higher in each of the regions

14

Source: Frost & Sullivan

EV Start-up Hotspot by Region, Global, 2018

Circles represent the emergence of

number of start-ups

Major Technology Focus 1. Light Electric Vehicles 2. EV Mobility 3. EV Commercial Vehicles Total Number of Start-ups ~ 125+ spread across the North and South America

Major Technology Focus 1. Charging Solutions 2. EV Mobility 3. Light Electric Vehicles Total Number of Start-ups ~ 80 spread across Europe

Major Technology Focus 1. Passenger Car Manufacturing 2. EV 2 Wheelers 3. Battery Tech Total Number of Start-ups ~ 60+ spread across Asia-Pacific

Major Technology Focus 1. Battery Tech 2. Charging Solutions 3. IT & IoT based Solutions Total Number of Start-ups ~ 10 in Israel and other regions L

H

M

~ 270+ Start-ups

Technology Trends & Developments

Micro Hybrid Mild Hybrid Full hybrid PHEV

Voltage (v) 12 12/48 200–270 300–400

Electric Power (kW) ~3 ~12 20–50 60–70

Recuperation Power (kW) 0.5–3.0 3–12 ~20 20

Launch Assist (kW) 0 ~15 >15 >60

e-Drive Range (km) 0 0 ~2 ~35

Estimated OEM On-cost ($) 170–800 850–1,700 3,400–5,700 6,800–11,500

CO2 Reduction (%) 4–7 12–15 15–20 >20

Cost/Per Gram of CO2 Reduction ($) 40–115 60–90 230–290 340–570

Cost Benefit Analysis of xEVs The 48v mild hybrid system best negotiates the cost versus energy demand compared to other xEVs and is expected to grow in the market

16

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Type of Vehicle to Voltage Level, Global, 2017

Hybrid Comparison, Global, 2017

Aff

ord

abili

ty

Low

High

Typ

e o

f V

ehic

le A

bility to

Ad

dre

ss En

ergy D

em

and

Low

High

Power hungry applications

12v 48v >200v

Conventional ICE

Dual Voltage 12/48v

xEVs

Voltage Level

Core Functions

Value added Functions

Power hungry applications

Future of Autonomous Platforms: Rethink Role of 3 Key Layers 16 possible approaches to AD platforms; AI + Decentralised and Flexible architecture likely to be future

17

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Future of Autonomous Platforms (Global)

Platform Types

Cloud Architecture Deterministic [D]

Classical software with minimal reliance on DL

Stochastic [S]

Software with inherent randomness with high reliance on DL S/W Architecture

E/E Architecture

Centralized [C]

High number of domain controller and centralised processing units with higher raw data transfer from sensors and data fusion

Decentralized [D]

Higher number of smart sensors or ECUs dedicated to individual or small cluster of sensors

Vehicle Platform

Dedicated [D]

Vehicle platform dedicated for housing BEVs

Multi-Energy [M]

Vehicle platform that house multiple powertrain – HEV/PHEV/EV

Vehicle H/W – Sensors, Displays etc.

Au

ton

om

ou

s P

latf

orm

Dig

ital

El

ectr

on

ic

Veh

icle

Possible Autonomous

Platform Approaches

S C D S C D S D M S D M New Age Approach

…

D C D D C D D D M D D M New Age Approach

…

1 2 3 4

5 6 7 8

Analysis by OEM Brand Positioning & Strategy for 48V Systems 48V is considered as an enabler of removing parasitic loses, focus on fuel efficiency gain and higher power requirements

19

Source: Frost & Sullivan

48V Systems , NA and Europe, 2018

Strategy

Premium – Only available in vehicles from C-segment onwards

Volume – Available in vehicles throughout the range

Economy – Available on a component that improves fuel efficiency

Performance – Available on a component that boosts performance

Model – Available across the model

Trim – Available only in a specific trim

Powertrain – Available on a powertrain application

Chassis – Available on a chassis application

Model Premium

Volume Chassis Trim Performance

Economy Powertrain

GM

Audi

BMW

Daimler

Ford

FCA

Hyundai

Renault-Nissan

VW

Four Pillars of Automotive IoT & Key Use Cases Internet of Things allows automotive organizations to innovate in connected services, customer experiences, targeted monetization services, autonomous driving features and intelligent supply chain management

20

Source: Frost & Sullivan

• AI based personal assistants

• Safety and security services

• Driver monitoring system

• Remote diagnostics and prognostics

• Smartphone interfacing (CarPlay and Android Auto)

• Infotainment services

• V2X/V2I communications, etc.

Connected Services

• Fleet management

• Robot taxis and self driving cars

• Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS)

• Intelligent cockpit assistance

• Autonomous parking

• Hill Assist

• Adaptive Cruise Control

• Emergency stop etc.

Autonomous Driving

• Usage-based insurance

• Predictive maintenance

• First Notification of Loss (FNOL)

• Marketplace

• E-mobility services

• Targeted and personalized promotions

• Anonymized Data Sharing etc.

Data Monetization

• Part authentication

• Asset and vehicle tracking

• Time stamping

• Smart contracts

• Unified data aggregation across value chain

• Predictive maintenance by dealerships

Aftermarket & Supply Chain

Future UBI Services- Leverage IoT and Latest Technologies Variety of services emanate from connected car services (e.g.- contextual behavior intelligence and FNOL) - new start-ups and data centric business models will force traditional participants to invest in latest technology

21

Source: Frost & Sullivan

UBI Market Future Services, Global, 2016–2025

UBI FUTURISTIC

SERVICES

1. Live concierge supporting navigation

2. Alert in case speed limits are exceeded

3. Antitheft service if the box registers a different-than-usual driving style

4. Alert if the vehicle exits a “safe area” (or enters an “unsafe area”) of the city, defined by the client (e.g., parental control options)

5. Weather alert based on geo-localization

6. Highway/parking area tolling

1. Road or medical assistance via dedicated button

2. Client assistance and personalized case management in case of crash

3. Automatic assistance to the client on the premises in case of severe accident

4. Simplified claim notification, including automatic form fill-in based on telematics data

5. Claim certification at client’s disposal

1. Street sweeping alerts

2. Parking localization

3. Alert in case the vehicle is moved when the engine is off (e.g., tow-away)

4. Alert if the car is hit when parked

5. Antitheft service if the box is removed/uninstalled

6. Stolen vehicle recovery

WH

ILE

DR

IVIN

G

AC

CID

ENT

SCEN

AR

IOS

P

AR

KIN

G

SER

VIC

E

Cybersecurity Threat Vectors in Connected Cars By 2025, cloud connectivity, wireless update services, operating system, and external communication channels (V2X/V2I) will be the most vulnerable points with increasing connectivity features in connected vehicles

22

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Automotive Cybersecurity Market’s Threat Vector Analysis, Global, 2018

Key: SOTA—Software Over-the-air; FOTA—Firmware Over-the-air; OBD—On-board Diagnostics; ECU: Electronic Computing Units;

GPS—Global Positioning System; CAN—Controller Area Network; MOST—Media Oriented Systems Transport

OEM specific

operating system

(OS)

In-built cloud apps (HD maps, infotainment)

USB

Cloud apps

OBD II

Third-party downloaded apps

Physical ports

Various ECUs (steering, braking etc.) MOST/CAN buses

Telematics Control Unit (TCU)

Vehicle-to-Infrastructure connectivity (Lane assist/collision avoidance/ traffic lights, etc.) Remote Key

Keyless Entry Systems

Tire Pressure Monitoring Systems (TPMS)

Anti-lock braking system

Malicious SOTA/FOTA update

Vehicle-to-vehicle Connectivity (V2X)

Real-time data exchange through cloud/Internet Cloud

In-vehicle networks

4

5

1

2

6

3

Potential future threat points

Wireless Interfaces

Bluetooth

Most hacked points till 2018

Cellular Network Connectivity

Wi-Fi GPS

Conclusions and 2019 Outlook

23

Source: Frost & Sullivan Image Source: Thinkstockphotos.com

• Overall, the global automotive industry is expected to face a challenging year in new car sales and register a flat year of growth compared to 2018 .

• The U.S. market, which is the second biggest in the world is expected to reduce in new sales by approximately 1.1% to 17.1m units.

• However markets in Brazil and Russia are expected to grow by approximately 8% and 5% respectively.

Industry Forecast

• As sedan sales continue to fall, OEMs will shelve more models and move production lines to support SUVs and EV models.

• Shared mobility and new mobility streams are expected to continue their growth.

• Vehicle subscription services will get more popular as 0.5M vehicles are expected to be signed on in 2019.

• Brexit, USMCA and the China trade war will have a negative impact on car sales.

Trends

• Global IT companies are making bigger waves in the automotive industry by developing technology specific to automobiles.

• Industry participants to discover more streams of revenue and increase existing capabilities.

• As the number of mobility services explode in 2019, OEMs and other industry participants will look to study and harness the data for more optimized sales and aftersales solutions.

Data Monetization

• The EV market is expected to get grow further in 2019 as more OEMs release newer models, battery prices get cheaper and charging infrastructure.

• Approximately 6.7milliion xEVs are expected to be sold in 2019 bolstered by strong sales in China.

• Diesels are expected to reduce further especially in markets such as Europe and India, give more stringent emissions regulations.

Powertrain

24

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