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„Transformation of the electricity system: technical organisational andsystem: technical, organisational and
financial issues
Presentation for the Ann al MeetingPresentation for the Annual Meeting of ABOWind
Uwe LeprichInstitut for Future Energy Systems (IZES)
Weiskirchen, September 28, 2012
Uwe Leprich
• professor at the business school of the University of Applied Sciences in Saarbruecken since 1995Applied Sciences in Saarbruecken since 1995
• at the same time scientific head of the Institute for Future Energy Systems (IZES), a university based research institute focussing on renewable energiesresearch institute focussing on renewable energies, energy efficiency and decentralised power generation
• author and co-author of several books and articles lib li d l i i k f d i l l iliberalised electricity markets, feed-in law regulations and instruments for promoting renewable energies in the heat market.
• expert member of the Enquete commission “Sustainable energy supply” of the 14th German Bundestag
• deputy spokesman of the Renewable Energy Research Association since October 2011
2 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
IZES gGmbH
ManagementD Mi h l B d D F ithj f S
y B
oard Scie
Dr. Michael Brand, Dr. Frithjof Spreer
Scientific DirectorProf Dr Uwe Leprich
perv
isor
y entific AdApplied Research and Development
Prof. Dr. Uwe Leprich
der /
Sup
dvisory B
Energy MarketsProf. Dr. Uwe Leprich
BuildingsProf. Dr. Horst Altgeld
Material Flow ManagementProf. Frank Baur
hare
hold
Board
Solar Power / Test of Social-Scientific
Technology and Scientific Infrastructure
Sh Solar Collectors and Systems (TZSB)Danjana Theis
Technical InnovationsDr. Bodo Groß
Social Scientific Energy Research
Prof. Dr. Petra Schweizer-Ries
3 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
Agenda
S t i bilit d t i bl l b l i1 Sustainability and sustainable global energy scenarios
The German path to a sustainable energy system
12
Resume
34
System design: How to finance the future system
Resume4
4 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
Global Scenarios - Overviewar
ios
mat
e S
cen
IPCC – Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report
Clim
ario
srg
y S
cena
IEA-World Energy Outlook
Ene
Greenpeace, DLR –Energy [R]evolution
Shell – Energy Scenarios to 2050
EIA – International Energy Outlook
5 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
IEA World Energy Outlook 2011
Three scenarios (Current Policies Scenario, New Policies Scenario, 450-Scenario)
One scenario that aims for a maximum of 2°C temperature rise in the long term. => 450 - scenario
4/5 of the energy related CO2-emissions that are permitted
IEA-World Energy Outlook
4/5 of the energy related CO2 emissions, that are permitted within the 450-scenario until 2035, are already determined by the existing facilities (plants, buildings, factories).
Energy efficiency has to develop more than twice as fast thanEnergy efficiency has to develop more than twice as fast than in the past 2 ½ decades (450-scenario).
“Golden Age” for natural gas
f In scenario-450: coal consumption has its maximum before 2020 and declines afterwards
6 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
EU-Energy Roadmap 2050EU Energy Targets for 2020:
Reduction of the greenhouse gas emissions by 20 % (compared to 1990)
Increase the share of renewables in energy consumption to 20 %
Increase in energy efficiency by 20 %
Range of different EU-scenarios of fuel shares in primary energy consumption
Sourcee: E
C 2011
8 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
Agenda
S t i bilit d t i bl l b l i1 Sustainability and sustainable global energy scenarios
The German path to a sustainable energy system
12
Resume
34
System design: How to finance the future system
Resume4
10 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
Targets of the Energy Concept 2010SSource: S
chhafhausen 22011
… as cornerstones of the German „Energiewende“
11 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
„ g
Leitstudie 2011 as a compass for the EnergiewendeS
ourcee: DLR
/IWEES
/IfNE
201
12 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
2
Leitstudie 2011: Gross Electricity GenerationS
ourcee: DLR
/IWEES
/IfNE
201
13 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
2
Leitstudie 2011: Cost AnalysisS
ourcee: DLR
/IWEES
/IfNE
201
14 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
2
Learning curve wind turbinesS
ource: RRenew
s Julii 2010
22 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
Development of costs and feed-in tariffs for PV
Costs and remunerationsremunerations for PV have been cut by more than 50% within 450% within 4 years!
23 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
Expected learning curves for renewables S
ource: WWB
GU
201
24 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
1
Agenda
S t i bilit d t i bl l b l i1 Sustainability and sustainable global energy scenarios
The German path to a sustainable energy system
12
Resume
34
System design: How to finance the future system
Resume4
25 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
The triangle of electricity policyfor 2020o 0 0
35% (39%) Renewables Framework conditionsconditions
• 3 further NPPs off-grid
• no significant storage expansion
• Grid restrictions eliminated?
25% (28%) CHP10% (0%) Reduction
26 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
System Part #1
52 GW PV
The VRE (wind, PV, water) will
Uncertainties
Variablecover up to one half of the total power generation
Will the government hold on to the renewable energy
Renewable
Energies
p g– due to that reason they determine the
targets?
Will the current t iti
gdetermine the rationality of the system
storage capacities be sufficient for that?
Will the grid extension keep up?5-7 GW
Offshore50-70 GW Onshore
27 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
OffshoreOnshore
By the way:
fThe development of wind and PV is increasingly less justified with CO2 reduction targets, but increasingly withwith
• reduction of import dependency
• increase of added domestic value
• job creationjob creation
• stabilization of electricity prices in the long term
• export opportunities of the system
• etc.
28 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
System Part #2
The plant-specific must run-
Investigation requirement
restrictions will gradually be reduced by price
requirement
To what extend can network
Variabley p
signals. related must run-requirements be fulfilled by
Renewable
Energies u ed byrenewables?
g
29 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
By the way:
Must run is one significant factor of inflexibilityMust run is one significant factor of inflexibility
Share of the production that was affected by power management without the use of flexibilities (weather year 2007)without the use of flexibilities (weather year 2007)
Source: Sensfuss (2012)
30 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
System Part #3
Infrastructure as a system requirementand supplement
31 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
The future electricity system
Variable
Renewable
Energies
33 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
Assumption #1
Variable renewable energies will determine the rationality of the future electricity system. All other options in the system will have to adapt to this new rationality and have to be as flexible as possibleadapt to this new rationality and have to be as flexible as possible
Variable
Renewable
Energies
34 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
Assumption #1 (ctd.)A lot of flexibility is needed for the coverage of the residual load!
35 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
Assumption #2
Variable renewable energies with almost zero marginal costs will inevitably drop power exchange prices (“merit oder effect”)
Verhältnis der Stundenmittelwerte der Peak-Stunden zum jährlichen Durchschnittswert des EEX-Spotmarktpreises
von 2007 bis 2012 (April)Decline of the EPEX peak-base ratio due to growing
amounts of PV
50,00 €
52,50 €
55,00 €
150%
160%
170% (from 2007 to april 2012)
42 0 €
45,00 €
47,50 €
120%
130%
140%
in %
37,50 €
40,00 €
42,50 €
100%
110%
120%
35,00 €90%
8‐9h 9‐10h 10‐11h 11‐12h 12‐13h 13‐14h 14‐15h 15‐16h 16‐17h 17‐18h 18‐19h 19‐20h
Tagesstunde2007 2009 2011 Jan ‐ Apr 2012
36 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
Assumption #3
Variable renewable energies with almost zero marginal costs will not be able to recover their capital costs in energy only marketsnot be able to recover their capital costs in energy only markets
for a foreseeable future
l ti M kt t PV d Wi d 08/2010 05/2012
115,00%
120,00%
relative Marktwerte PV und Wind, 08/2010 - 05/2012
100,00%
105,00%
110,00%
90,00%
95,00%
80,00%
85,00%
August 2010 Oktober 2010 Dezember 2010
Februar 2011 April 2011 Juni 2011 August 2011 Oktober 2011 Dezember 2011
Februar 2012 April 2012
MP/Øspot Wind MP/ØSpot PV Linear (MP/Øspot Wind) Linear (MP/ØSpot PV)
Source: IZES 2012, from www.transparency.eex.com
37 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
MP/Øspot - Wind MP/ØSpot - PV Linear (MP/Øspot - Wind) Linear (MP/ØSpot - PV)
Assumption #3
Variable renewable energies with almost zero marginal costs will not be able to recover their capital costs in energy only marketsnot be able to recover their capital costs in energy only markets
for a foreseeable future
Source: MVV 2012, internal calculations
Market Value Wind Onshore: Historical dataMarket Value Wind Onshore: Upper bandMarket Value Wind Onshore: Lower band
38 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
Assumption #3
Variable renewable energies with almost zero marginal costs will not be able to recover their capital costs in energy only marketsnot be able to recover their capital costs in energy only markets
for a foreseeable future
Development of the Phelix Baseload Year Futures 2013
39 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
1st segment of finance
Investigation requirement
How can the EEG be further developed in aVariable developed in a „system-beneficial“ way?
Renewable
EnergiesEnergies
40 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
2nd segment of finance
Hypothesis
Grid related
Investigation requirement
Grid related must run-units cover a total
How can new units be financed via grid-fees in aVariable
capacity of 5-10 GW (maximum)
via grid fees in a concrete way?Renewable
EnergiesEnergies
41 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
3rd segment of finance
HypothesisInvestigation requirement
Generally speaking, dispatch
requirement
How can the harmonization
dispatch markets already work
it ll
of these markets with renewable Variable
quite well energies be improved?
Renewable
EnergiesEnergies
42 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
4th segment of finance
Hypothesis Investigation requirement
Dispatch markets don´t give sufficient
requirement
Are there still gaps?give sufficient
investment signals and th f
Variabletherefore should be expanded
Renewable
EnergiesEnergies
43 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
Beyond ceteris paribus …
Variable
Renewable
EnergiesEnergies
44 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
System-design instead of „market-design“
Variable
Renewable
EnergiesEnergies
45 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
Agenda
S t i bilit d t i bl l b l i1 Sustainability and sustainable global energy scenarios
The German path to a sustainable energy system
12
Resume
34
System design: How to finance the future system
Resume4
46 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
Resume
The center of the German Energiewende is the electricity system
The future electricity system will be dominated by variable renewable energies; they will define the g yrationality of the system
To finance the future electricity system one has to o a ce t e utu e e ect c ty syste o e as todifferentiate between four segments; however these segments have interdependencies
The existing system has to be completed by capacity mechanisms which allow for additional capacity related revenues
47 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]
Thank you very much for y yyour attention!
Institut für ZukunftsEnergieSysteme (IZES)
Altenkesselerstr. 17, Gebäude A166115 SaarbrückenTel. 0681 – 9762 840Fax 0681 – 9762 850
il l i h@i demail: [email protected] www.izes.de
48 [ Leprich, September 28, 2012, ABOWind ]