Towards 5th Issue

8/14/2019 Towards 5th Issue

1/32

t o w a r d s

I n f a l l i b l e e c o n o m y a n

d t e r r o r

f r e e s o c i e t y

An effort by Stockyard in association with mantra consulting

w.stock ard.infinities.net

25 th May 2008 Issue 5


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From editors Desk

This issue of towards has been dedicated to the theme infallible Economy, terror

free society.

We believe that a resilient economy and terror free society are the two most

important ingredients for a prosperous, developed and strong India in the global

arena. We can not boost or enjoy the economic growth unless our society is fear-

free and every one has equal opportunity to grow and bloom.

Rising Crude has been most disturbing element to the global economy. We are

presenting an in-depth analysis of crude oil in this issue. We have also included all

other regular columns of World economy, Indian economy and Corporate Analysis.

Our guest Mrs Anu Garg, HR, K. Raheja Corporate Services has contributed a very

beautiful article on Forgiveness, a tender human feeling which is very much lacking

in our day-to day life.

With Love & Affection


3/32

Corrigendum

In our last issue (4 th ) published on 10 th may2008, article by Diya deb The journey of the volunteers of Inclusive Education campaign of CRY misquoted the name of

organization as CRY foundation in place of

Child Rights and You

. CRY should be read as Child Rights and you .


4/32

Indian EconomyRupee Movement

JP Morgan Chase Bank has lowered its forecast for 2008 from 39 to 40 per dollar. Thishas been on the back of a widening current account deficit and fund outflow.

Given the central banks stance of non -intervention and the slowdown in capitalinflows, the rupee is only likely to weaken in the near term.

There is very little scope for the rupee to appreciate, in the absence of high foreignportfolio inflows. Though chances of inflows resuming are quite high, considering thedrop in globa l risk aversion, Inflows havent picked up yet because of the inflationaryand growth concerns surrounding the economy.

Indian Oil Demand-Supply Scenario

Indias agricultural season pushed diesel demand up adding 100 tb/d to total oil consumption

in March. While total Indian Oil demand growth increased in March by 6.3% or 180 tb/d YOY toaverage 3.0 mb/d. First quarter Indian oil demand grew by a strong 5.8% or 0.17 mb/d YOY.

The forecast for the Indian oil demand is set at 0.14 mb/d for the entire year. The industrial,transport, and agricultural sectors are pushing the oil demand higher.


5/32

Indian Economy: In years to come

GDP Growth & Inflation:

GDP($ Billion) Rs/$ 40 Financial Savings FinancialSavings/GDP

Equities/Finansavings

2001 0.525 62.1 11.8 4.12002 0.570 74.15 13.0 2.72003 0.614 80.65 13.1 1.72004 0.691 94.35 13.6 0.12005 0.781 108.57 13.9 1.12006 0.892 148.8 16.7 4.92007 1.031 189.7 18.4 6.32008E 1.171 218.4 18.6 6.62009E 1.316 248.75 18.9 7.32010E 1.486 284.525 19.1 7.82011E 1.657 321.4 19.4 8.32012E 1.848 362.975 19.6 8.82013E 2.060 409.85 19.9 9.3

2014E 2.297 462.72 20.1 9.62015E 2.562 522.35 20.4 10.32016E 2.856 589.55 20.6 10.82017E 3.185 665.32 20.9 11.3


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World Bank warning

The World Bank warned that is expects the cost of staple foods such as rice to stay high for anumber of years. World Bank Managing Director Juan Jose Daboub told reporters that therecent spike in food prices was not a short-term, temporary phenomenon that would go awaywithin months.

FDI in India

Foreign Direct Investment into India has surged to over USD 25 billion in 2007-08 and the

country's Foreign Exchange Reserve crossed USD 341 billion

Morgan Stanley: India Strategy Report

Indias long -term growth story is an interplay of the DRG factors-Demographics, Reforms, and

Globalisation.

Long Term Equity Market Story:

4 advantages:

Strong dividend growth

Falling volatility in growth

A structural liquidity storyA robust capital market


7/32

Infallible Economy & terror free Society

M ay be most of you won t aon this. But I do give credit to him

of being the great visionary. perceive Mr P.V.Narsimha Rao, the

father of Modern India wh

brought in the waves

liberalization and privatization

opened up the long closed doors to

new world, new challenges and

new promises. A series of changeincluding infrastructural, financial

policies, reforms, institutions and arobust framework whic

transformed one of the most

backward and failing economical

political- social system into world

fastest growing and mo

promising nation.

This change was not just a

economical transformation. Thichanged the way, we Indians look

to the world, it also changed the

way, the world looks to us

changed everythingfro

thereafter.

Indian Economy, growing at 7%

has promises to deliver, courage to

boost and perseverance to contain

all its bottlenecks and hiccups.

The promise is not just to 1 million

millionaires, 350 million+ midd

class or few TATA, Birla, Ambani

Bajaj.

This promise is also to the rest o

650million+ people who are sti

bel ow the poverty line.

I still remember the years of 1991, 92, 93

and there after. As a child of 11+ years,

those were my formative years. Our

economy had only 2 weeks of foreign

reserves to buy Oil; I remember the time

when we had to mortgage gold from RBIs

reserves.


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In Rajasthan, 21 people killed in

Police firing against Gujjar

community who were protesting

for getting ST status.

Similar protests last year took life

of 26 people in similar kind of

incidence. With the toll crossing 38

in two days and scores of people in

hospitals, the Army was called out

to douse fires over Gujjar demands

for inclusion in the ScheduledTribes list.

Gujjar has been simmering since

the BJP government at the Centre

inducted Jatts into the OBC

category in 1999.


9/32

Death, dance and tap your feet

dance on bomb blast tunewe are just immune,

Earlier we cried,now the tears have driedour eyes open and red,we are but, dead.

We have indeed become immune; we hardly seem to bat an eyelid; I guess our

senses are numb. Yesterday Hubli, today Jaipur,tomorrow.........where?????????????Our apathy is shameful.

Ajith Nambiar


10/32

These words are from a much unknown person named Ajith Nambiar, I do not know himI just got these lines on net, on an unknown blog.

But these lines tell a lot.and what tells so profound is about the world, we live in.

How many more lives will have to be crucified on hypocrisy and malicious agendas of perpetrators of barbarism, cruelty and shamelessness?

And how many times our shameless, corrupt and irresponsible government will shed

its crocodile tears with a very shallow promise that the harbingers of terrorism and cruelty will not be let free.

It is utter shame and inattentiveness on the part of government and our very ownelected institution that every time few headless and criminal minded beasts rape thecommon civil society and just escape away without being caught.

How many times, we need to witness, Bombay, Godhra, Hyderabad, Jammu, Akshardham, Ajmer and Jaipur and when shall be the offenders of humanity arebrought under the column of justice.

Terrorism needs no stronger word to condemn. But this condemnation should not limit to perpetrators of these heinous acts.

Rather if one scrutinizes the events that lead to series of happenings and activitiesaround itfew telling truths only get exposed.

Our soldiers die guarding our borders against terrorists and infiltrators at, withinand beyond our borders.and more often than not..sacrifice for motherland.

What tribute this land pays them?

When a terrorist gets killed, our very own Mehbuba mufti and Farooq Abdullah visit their home to console the family: News on 14 th May all media publications and channels..

When our own people like Sarabjit Singh get caught in Pakistan.and trialed onutterly false claim of terrorism(which their own system denies several times),do youknow ,what our Minister of Homes Affeirs, Mr Sivraj Patil says?

I quote Mr Sivraj Patil, Minister for Home Affairs..

If we insist on clemency of Sarabjit from Pakistan, why should we not pardonterrorists caught in Parliament blast case like A ltaf

These are the words of our Minister no.2 in North Block, responsible for nations securit .


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Our politicians and people at the helm of affairs are much more responsible for the sorry state of affairs, we are in..

And statistics are very dangerous. Do you know that more than 2 crore Bangladeshis have beenimported by Governments of West Bengal , Assam and Former Prime Minister V.P.Singh in various parts of country.

Only because they could turn to their vote Bank..Entire Assam has seen significant demographicchanges..same in most of the West Bengal.

Left front Government in past 20+ years has distributed Ration Cards, Voter ID cards and permanent resident certificates..Mr V.P.Singh has stood at the Charminar maidan and distributed Voter ID cards to millions of Bangladeshisjust to convert a vote bank.

More than 1 crore Bangladeshis vote for left front government in West Bengal to perpetuate their throne there.

Whenever our security agencies and forces ask for more muscles and power to deal with terror points, they are deliberately stopped from doing so.We do not have a single legislature to fight with terror suspects.POTA was withdrawn, TADA was repealed

It might look to you as a mere political stunt to win elections and gain extra political and tactical millage .But believe megame is not so simple.it is far more heinous and meticulously worked out.

There are people. at the top echelons of power corridors ho would leave no stone unturned todestroy, spoil or more accurately sell off this country.so many timesthe interest of this country has been compromised ,sold for personal benefits and vote bank politics.

And why to blame them ? What are I and You doing .? Nothing.. .Literally nothing

Remember tomorrow, it could be your city, your people, your mom, dad, brother, sister or simply you..

to be sacrificed at the alter of terrorismbelieve me They are not outsiders..somewhere inPakistan.but the real terrorists are comfortably sitting in your Parliament, North Block, SouthBlock..and ministries..and if you could believe me little moreyou are very much the target for the next time. you, me our families, our children.

For if the nation is not safe, we are not safe

For if Borders are not tight guarded, our Air-Conditioned homes are next to be infiltrated.

For it is not for the great cause of nation, but for very own survival of yours i am calling you.do something time is really running out..save your life.. And also of your loved ones.

There are people w ho are thirsty of your bloodtheir thirst for blood and appetite for power isever- ending.save this nation save yourself.


12/32

World Economy at a glanceGlobal Commodity price movements

The IMF commodity index reported slower growth of 4.7%in April month on-month, essentially linked to the negativegrowth in the non-energy commodity index as the energysector rose by 7% supported by crude oil and natural gasprices.

Non-Energy Commodity prices rose by 2.1% in April fromprevious month, on account of inclusion of fertilizer prices.Fertilizer prices are increasing strongly due to plantation inNorthern Hemisphere and high crude prices.

Natural gas prices in Europe increased by 10.4% in Marchrelative to previous month. US natural gas prices rose 8.2%

compared to 10% during March/February. This is attributedto the colder-than-normal temperature patterns, restrictedLNG imports from Canada and production constraints in theGulf of Mexico.

Industrial metal prices saw negative growth (1%) m-0-m inApril,6% lower than in March in response to growinginventories, temporary weaker Chinese demand andpessimism over global demand and US Economy.

Zinc fell by 9.9% in April due to rising inventories, weakdemand and recovery of Chinese production.

Nickel prices dropped 7.4% due to higher stocks and poorrecovery in Chinese production.Copper performed better due to lower stocks and strike related developments.

IMF food price index fell by 0.2% while World Bank foodprices rose by2.2% The slower growth of the food priceindex was mainly caused by the negative 17% m-o-mgrowth in Wheat in April on expectation of higher globalproduction especially from Australia. Palm Oil prices declined 6% owing to expectations of higher production and exports in Asia.

Rice prices surged 51% to $1,015/mt in April from March, 215% higher than the year-ago levelfueled by strong import demand, export restrictions in a number of countries and growing worriesover a world food price rally. The most important feature about rice is that only 7% of gproduction is exported and exports are declining due to several obstacles such as hoarding export restrictions with growing government concern about food security. China passed on aexport tax at the start of the year.Corn prices continued to increase, rising 6% in April m-o-m sustained by supply constraints relatedto expected lower 2008 US corn planting and recent unfavorable weather conditions in the US.Growing demand in the US food, fuel and feed sectors along with a rally in crude oil prices, strongChinese demand, competing acreage allocation, and low inventories have also had an impact.

HighlightsWorld economy growth forecast i2008 is at 3.9%

There are definite signs of credit crisieasing

Japan is improving its economic outlookwhile Euro Zone seems to get intworsening outlook.

US economy seems to grow at 1.1% fothe year 2008.

Advance figures for US GDP in fquarter still indicate positive growthalbeit at a meager 0.6% Yearly, mainlon account of continued strength inexports and rise in inventories.

US Payrolls in April fell for the 4 th mcontinuously.

Job loss claims of 20,000 was mulesser than the average 80,000/month in the first quarter of

2008.

PMI service index surprised on thupside, rising above 50 for the first timein 3 months.

The better than expected data and signsthat the Feds easing cycle is at an helped lift the dollar from its lowversus the Euro and Yen.


13/32

Fertilizer Prices:

Monthly changes in selected commodity prices, 2007-08


14/32

World Economy:

USA:

Lessened negative sentiment prevalent in the first quarter; US slowdown is expected to be mild.

Continued deep contraction in the Housing sector and easing but still existent financial markettensions.Slowdown might be U-shaped rather than V-shaped and recovery might not be forthcoming before2009.

According to Fed Senior Loans Officers Survey: Share of bank tightening credit conditions forcompanies & consumers approached a record 70% in April compared to 45% in January.

0.6% seasonally adjusted growth.Continued strength in exports (+5.5%)

A build in industrial inventories, positive outlook.Housing sector still in deep recession:

Residential investments fell by 26.7%,Subtracting 1.23 % from growth in Q1, New and existing homes sales slipped further in March, New home sales fell 8.5% on the month (36% YOY), Seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000, down 13.3% from year earlier. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Reporting: Existing home sales fell by 2% in March to

an annual pace of 4.93 million or 19.3% below 6.11 million a year earlier. Supply available for 10 months demand, compared to an average 6 months

1st Quarter GDP : Marked slowdown in private consumption expenditure growth of 1%,the slowest

pace since 2001.Retail sales (50% of private consumption) fell by 0.2% in April.

Excluding Autos( -- 2.8% in April backed by 0.5% fall in March) & Parts, sales rose by higher-than-expected 0.5%=> + OutlookIn April, Cars & LCVs sold at an annual pace of 14.4 million in April, Lowest in a decade.( NegativeIndustrial Outlook)Consumer confidence continued to fall: Cons.Con.Index at 5 year low 62.3, down from 65.9 in March(base 1985=100).Present Situation Index : decreased to 80.7 from 90.6

Expectation Index virtually unchanged at 50.1 versus 49.4 in March.

Payrolls in April fell for the 4 th month continuously. Although with milder pace(20,000 comparedwith 80,000)Unemployment rate dropped by 0.1% to 5%.

ISM Index for Non-Manufacturing Sector (Services), representing bulk of the economy, surprised onthe upside.The overall diffusion Index in April rose to 52 from 49.6 in March, rising above 505 levels, 1st time in3 months. The index covers retail, transportation, health care, finance, real estate and construction.The service sector employment sub-index rose an encouraging 3.9 points to 50.8

ISM Manufacturing Index (12% of GDP) stagnated at 48.6, below the 50% threshold.


15/32

Overall, the better-than expected data and possible end of Feds easing cycle helped Dollar toappreciate versus Euro and Yen.

Other World:

Japan:

Bank of Japan remains concerned about Japanese economic prospects; monetary policy to remain

on watch.Benchmark rate at 0.5%

Virtuous cycle of higher production feeding into Income and spending has been weakening.

Growth forecast: 1.5% (below 2.1% earlier)

Euro Zone:

Economic slowdown evident as retail sales contract while German exports fall for a secondmonth.

Russia:Revised GDP in 2007 to 8.1%

Inflation to reach 10% in 2008

China:

GDP growth in 1 st quarter of 2008 10.6 %.( Slowdown from 11.9%)

Inflation 8.5% in April.

Trade surplus narrowed as export slowed down to 22% in April from 31% in March.

Shipments to the US 11% (DOWN from 16% in March).Industrial Output at 15.7% growth (March 17.8%).


16/32

towards.?

World Economy is at Cross-road. And only one path goes ahead from here. Worldleaders, Analysts and think tanks are clueless about the short-term outlook of WorldEconomy. We have never been so uncertain aboutour future.

Where is the global Economy heading..?

Towards an uncertain future which is hostage to so many factorsand outcomes.

We, team towards? Have tried to analyze various variables of

global economy.

Crude Oil: Boiling to evaporate

The OPEC Reference Basket reached a record high, 7% overprevious month to $ 105.20/b

Geopolitical developments in the Middle East and Supplydisruptions in West Africa and Europe.

The weakening US dollar and economic uncertainty addedto market volatility, along with sharp downward revisionsto demand forecasts which were offset by signs of healthydemand in China.

World oil demand growth in 2008 is forecast at 1.2 mbd yoyto average 86.95 mbd.

Non OPEC supply growth in 2008 is expected to average 0.7mbd, representing a slight downward revision from theprevious month.

OPEC crude production averaged 31.70 mbd for the monthof April, a decline of 393 bd from previous month asproduction in Nigeria and Iraq witnesses disruptions.

Downward revisions made to Mexico, Norway, UK,Denmark, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil and Russia werepartially offset by upward adjustments to India, Syria andChad.

It seems to come out of the tunnel credit crunch and subprime issues, least for the time being. Howebefore it could fully be salvaged frthe repercussions of US Capital systewrong- doings, it found itself in entirely new set of issues.

Crude oil at all time exponential peak$138+ /bbl.

Commodity prices shooting up threcord highs

Emerging markets, so called growengines of new world order, are slowing down substantially

OECD & G8 demand-supply geskewed

Global food crisis getting prolonpushing more than 1 billion peoplethe verge of hunger crisis.

On a technical note, we would tracking various parameters of glo

economy in our coming issbeginning with current issue.

The global economic indicators, we

would be tracking are:

Crude Oil

Dollar viz a viz Euro, Yen, Yuan, Psterling & Rupee

Gold Movement

World trade and balance of paymenof various economies along with trasurpluses/deficits

World GDP Growth rate

Commodity prices Metals viz a viz Acommodities


17/32

Oil Demand:

95% of the growth in demand for oil since 2003 has come from emerging parts of global economies,such as India and China that are far less efficient in the use of oil than the developed economies.

There is a huge increase in oil consumption on account of an explosion in the use of private transport

in the developing economies.

Oil is priced in US dollars. The dollar has depreciated by 25% in real effective terms since 2002.

A falling dollar reduces returns in dollar denominated financial assets which causes a switch tocommodities as an investment class.

The imbalance between global supply and demand was modest in 2007 by mere 0.2 million barrels aday or 0.2% of total supply.

Crude Worries:

Outside Saudi Arabia, there is no spare capacity.

Sanctions on Iran have meant that no new outside funds have come to bolster the current productionof around 4 millions bpd.

Iraqi Oil wells, despite US efforts, have not been able to reach production levels of the pre-war era.

England and Norway are seeing a downward production of their North Sea reserve.

Venezuela does not have the will and expertise to increase production.

Russia, which increased production by 4 millions bpd from 1996 to 2007, is unable to produce more.Its production, which peaked at 9.9 million bpd, is gradually dipping. Russia has been biggestcontribution to growth in Crude capacity outside OPEC over past many years.

On a YOY basis, all major Oil producers are seeing a dip in their production capacity.

BPs production fell by 2%, Shells Fell by 6%, and Exxon Mobile by 10%.

Overall world production is likely to fall by 2% compared with last year.

Rising unrest in Nigeria and nationalization of Oil fields in Venezuela and Russia are adding to crudeworries and supply concerns.


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Spot Prices (Cents Per Gallon)

Spot Data Changes From 05/16/08 Week Year

Crude Oil WTI 126.50 0.56 61.57 Gasoline (NY) 310.9 1.7 74.4 Diesel Fuel (NY) 385.2 5.7 181.1 Heating Oil (NY) 370.2 5.9 178.6 Propane Gulf Coast 172.7 -1.8 56.1 Note: Crude Oil WTI Price in Dollars per Barrel.

Retail Prices (Cents Per Gallon)

Retail Data Changes From Retail Data Changes From 05/19/08 Week Year 05/19/08 Week Year

Gasoline 379.1 6.9 57.3 Diesel Fuel 449.7 16.6 169.4


19/32

Stocks (Million Barrels)

Stocks Data Changes From Stocks Data Changes From 05/16/08 Week Year 05/16/08 Week Year

Crude Oil 320.4 -5.4 -23.8 Distillate 107.8 0.7 -12.5 Gasoline 209.4 -0.8 12.7 Propane 34.028 2.725 1.120

Crude Oil Spot and Estimated Contract Prices (Dollars per Barrel)

Most Recent Year A

04/04/08 04/11/08 04/18/08 04/25/08 05/02/08 05/09/08 05/16/08 05/18/07WTI -Cushing 106.09

110.14 116.56 119.64 116.36 125.94 126.50 Brent 102.21 107.15 110.67 116.62 111.92 123.54 122.98

Crude Oil Estimated Contract Prices m

Most Recent Year Ago04/04/08 04/11/08 04/18/08 04/25/08 05/02/08 05/09/08 05/16/08 05/18/07

TotalOPEC 98.88

103.17 107.12 110.96 110.25 114.94 120.12 Total Non-OPEC 97.79

103.27 107.48 111.12 110.16 115.32 119.66

TotalWorld 98.39 103.22 107.28 111.03 110.21 115.11 119.91 UnitedStates 95.56

101.22 105.27 109.25 108.98 112.96 116.32
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Crude Oil Stocks (Million Barrels) and Days of Supply

Crude Oil Stocks moredata

Most Recent Year Ago04/04/08 04/11/08 04/18/08 04/25/08 05/02/08 05/09/08 05/16/08 05/18/07

U.S. 316.0 313.7 316.1 319.9 325.6 325.8 320.4 344.2East Coast(PADD I) 14.8

16.0 15.8 14.7 16.0 15.6 14.8 15.Midwest(PADD II) 65.1

64.4 64.4 65.5 67.1 67.4 67.4 74.Cushing,

Oklahoma 17.5 18.4 19.1 19.3 20.2 20.4 20.6 27.

Gulf Coast(PADD III) 167.1

167.5 167.5 168.5 170.6 172.0 165.7 181.6RockyMountain(PADD IV)

14.2 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.9 13.8 13.

West Coast(PADD V) 54.8

52.1 54.7 57.5 58.0 57.0 58.8 58.

Days of Supply (number of days) mordataMost Recent Year Ago

04/04/08 04/11/08 04/18/08 04/25/08 05/02/08 05/09/08 05/16/08 05/18/07

U.S. 22.1 22.0 21.9 22.0 22.3 22.0 21.5 22.Note: Days of Supply calculated as: U.S. Crude Oil Stocks / Four-Week Average U.S. Crude OilRefinery Inputs
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Crude Oil Production and Imports (Million Barrels per Day)

Crude Oil Production

Four-Week Averages Year Ago Week Ending Year Ago05/02/08 05/09/08 05/16/08 05/18/07 05/02/08 05/09/08 05/16/08 05/18/07

U.S.Production 5.099

5.107

5.093

5.157

5.099

5.128

5.045

Crude Oil Imports

Four-Week Averages Year Ago Week Ending Year Ago05/02/08 05/09/08 05/16/08 05/18/07 05/02/08 05/09/08 05/16/08 05/18/07

Crude Oil,ExcludingSPR

9.941 10.204 10.003 10.620 10.628 9.933 9.237


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Crude Oil Refinery Inputs (Million Barrels per Day)

Crude Oil Refinery Inputs m

Four-Week Averages Year Ago Week Ending Year Ago

05/02/08 05/09/08 05/16/08 05/18/07 05/02/08 05/09/08 05/16/08 05/18/07

U.S. 14.615 14.820 14.884 15.367 14.649 15.054 15.083 15.6EastCoast(PADDI)

1.343 1.369 1.386 1.486 1.316 1.498 1.374 1.

Midwest(PADDII)

3.186 3.245 3.257 3.271 3.206 3.252 3.308 3.

Gulf Coast(PADDIII)

7.170 7.297 7.282 7.389 7.309 7.289 7.247 7.

RockyMountain (PADDIV)

0.532 0.531 0.529 0.510 0.462 0.554 0.569 0.

WestCoast(PADDV)

2.386 2.378 2.430 2.712 2.356 2.461 2.585 2.
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The Chinese Factor:

To contain inflationary pressures on Economy, China is taking measures to freeze prices of domestic oil products. Government has suspended the import tax on diesel and gasoline forthe 2 nd quarter.Chinese oil demand growth will be at 430 tb/d y-o-y in 200 8.Chinas oil imports for the 1quarter increased by 0.44 mb/d y-o-y.Chinas agricultural season along with the massive increase in diesel vehicles and strategicstorage will hike the demand for diesel in the coming quarters.Chinas apparent oil demand for March increased strongly to reach 8.0 mb/d, adding 61tb/d Y-O-Y.


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World Oil Supply:

Non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 0.56 mb/d over the previous year to reach 49.43mb/d.

Non-OPEC supply is expected to average 50.18 mb/d in 2008, an increase of 0.74 mb/d over theprevious year. On a quarterly basis, on-OPEC supply is expected to average 49.86 mb/d, 49.76 mb/dand 51.16 mb/d respectively.

Total OECD oil supply is expected to reach 19.90 mb/d, a drop of 0.25 mb/d from the previous year.On quarterly basis, OECD supply is expected to average 20.13 mb/d, 19.69 mb/d, 19.46 mb/d and20.33 mb/d respectively.

According to preliminary data, total OECD supply averaged 20.04 mb/d in April.


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Corporate Radar

Monnet Ispat

Monnet Global, the overseas subsidiary of steel maker Monnet Ispat and Energy (MIEL), is setto acquire mining rights for a 250 MT coal reserve in Indonesia from PT Anzawara. The deal

would enable the company to start coal trading and look for lucrative markets in China, SouthEast Asia and India. Company has reached an understanding with PT Anzawara to sign a 25year agreement to exploit coal resources for sales both in local and overseas markets. The dealwould involve a royalty payment to the original mining lease holders. It is expected that themine would yield a production of 1 MT by July this year. This would progressively increase to 3MT in next couple of years.

While the company would trade this coal initially, it is also looking at option of setting up acoastal power plant based on the imported Indonesian thermal coal from its mines. Companysources said that more acquisitions of coal and iron ore mining assets were likely in comingmonths in Africa and South East Asia. The company expects to pump in over $ 400 million intoits overseas subsidiary to manage funds for these acquisitions.Monnet Global currently has a capital of $100 million.

The acquisitions of coal mines would serve the companys 2 power plants th at are likelcome up in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh with a joint capacity of 4,000 MW. The powerplants would entail an investment of close to Rs 15,000 crore. MIEL has commissioned power plant of 1,000 MW in Orissa with an investment of Rs 4,200 crore. It expects a totalpower plant capacity of 5000 MW by 2014-15.

Monnet Ispat is also diversifying its metal business by starting manufacture of long and flat(branded products) steel products besides sponge iron.

The companys turnover has almost d oubled to Rs 1,200 crore during 2007-08 as against R670 crore during the previous year.

Management: M S Gujral , Sandeep Jajodia

Monnet Ispat (MIL) promoted jointly by Sandeep Jajodia and Jindal Strips in 1990 tomanufacture sponge iron has set up a plant to manufacture 1 lac tonnes of sponge iron perannum at Village Kurd in the state of Madhya Pradesh.

Shareholding:

Foreign Investment: 39.77%

Promoter: 39.29%


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Bihar Sponge

The company manufactures sponge iron with an installed capacity of 2.10 lakh tonnes inJharkhand. Company had been suffering on account of high prices of coal and iron ore. Thecompany is supposed to have been allotted an iron ore mine spread over 406 acres, which willbe operational by August. This is expected to save on raw material costs to the tune of Rs3,000 per tonne as iron ore prices are expected to rise further. The company is likely to

increase its capacity of sponge iron.

TATA, VALE coal mine expansin

TATA Steel and Vale have announced to undertake a large scale expansion of the CarboroughDowns Coal mines in Queensland, Australia with total capex of A$ 401 MILLION. It is beingdone to ensure annual production of 4.9 million tonnes raw material to yield 3.7 MT of cokingcoal and PCI coal from 3 rd quarter of 2009. This step by TATA Steel is in accordance with thecompanys stated strategy of progressing towards raw material security for its global business.The decision on expansion of production at Carborough Down Coal mines gives TATA Steel anopportunity to explore larger areas for coal deposits.

Fiat AUTO Component

Fiat group has announced to set up an international purchasing office in New Delhi that cansupport its global production facilities in Europe, North America and Latin America. Company issourcing auto parts worth Euro 30 million at present from India and by 2010; the target is toincrease the number to Euro 50 million.

India, along with China at presents roughly around 12 15 % cost advantage over European oAmerican facilities.

BHEL

Heavy Electricals Ltd, India's state-run energy equipment maker, has taken over engineeringfirm Bharat Heavy Plate and Vessels Ltd. The company also signed a memorandum of understanding with Andhra Pradesh Power Generation Corp Ltd for setting up a 125 megawattcoal-based power plant.

The government on Sunday notified imposition of up to 15 per cent export duty on varioussteel products to contain rise of prices of alloy, a move that will hit the industry hard. Exportsof cold rolled (CR) coils, hot rolled (HR) coils and galvanised sheets would be allowed only afterpaying a duty of 15 per cent, 10 per cent and five per cent respectively and this would comeinto effect from midnight today. Consequent rise in steel prices have been contributing over21 per cent to the current inflation in the country. Demand for steel growing at around 12 percent annually, the Government has planned to create more than 250 million tonnes of additional steel making capacity.


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TATA Nano to be run on Cuban roads

Joining the list of nations that are keen to have the Nano ply on their roads, Cuba said theworld's cheapest car from the house of Tatas has huge potential in the Caribbean nation.Cuban Deputy Minister of Foreign Trade Eduardo Escandell Amador, who is leading a 19-member delegation to India, would meet senior officials from Tata Motors in Mumbai nextweek to explore business tie-ups. Besides Nano, Ramos said there is huge potential for Tatatrucks and buses in that country. Cuba is looking at increasing its trade with India to 300million dollars over the next three years on the back of enhanced cooperation in sectors likeauto, power, oil and gas.

Telecom sector revenue to touch $35 bn by 2010: Assocham & PWC research

Current revenue: $ 22 billion in 2007.

Nearly double subscriber base of 250 million

During 11 th plan, the sector would attract investment upto $76.6 billion.

Rollout of the 3G services will make sector more attractive with high speed data transferfacilities.

Bio Fuel major -Praj Industries bags British contract

Praj Industries Ltd, a leading biofuels technology company with a number of processes andsystems for ethanol and biodiesel production to its credit, has received a contract for supply of key equipment to Vivergo Fuels, UK through its subsidiary, BioCnergy Europa B V (a jointventure with Aker Solutions, Netherlands).The plant is designed to produce approximately 400million litres of fuel ethanol a year (1,200,000 litres per day).The contract value for Praj isapproximately Rs 120 crore (GBP 15 million). This will be the fourth bioethanol plant by Praj inWestern Europe. Coal Ministry & SAIL forming SPV to explore and buy coal assets abroad

UTV Softwares: Acqusition of IMPL

IMPL has technology based consumer and trade focussed business model positioned as an"Online Technology Infomediary" in India. This business model focuses on the target age groupof 15-35 and the Company finds this highly synergistic to its business. The acquisition byUNVML of IT Nation was through a combination of acquisition of equity shares from theexisting promoters of IT Nation and subscription to fresh equity shares of IT Nation.Post completion of acquisition process UNMVL will hold 80% of IMPL.


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Geojit Financial

BNP Paribas acquiring 35% stake in Geojit Technologies for Rs 60 crore.Net profit for FY 2007-08 went up by 133% to Rs 58.66 croreConsolidated revenue up by 78% to Rs 238.31 crores.Q4 Cons. Revenue rose by 78% to Rs 64.35 crore and net profit up by 106% to Rs11.82 crore.Q4 PATM at 18% from 16% last year

Future growth: Overseas Business Ventures and distribution business:Growing at more than100% a year .

ITC Q4 Results

The Company has posted a profit after tax of Rs 7356.40 million for the quarter ended March31, 2008 as compared to Rs 6506.90 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2007. Total

Income has increased from Rs 34741.40 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2007 to Rs40980.70 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2008. For the FY 2008, The Company hasposted a profit after tax of Rs 31201.00 million for the year ended March 31, 2008 ascompared to Rs 26999.70 million for the year ended March 31, 2007. Total Income hasincreased from Rs 125007.80 million for the year ended March 31, 2007 to Rs 145584.30million for the year ended March 31, 2008.

Consolidated Result: The Group has posted a net profit (after Minority Interest) of Rs 31577.60million for the year ended March 31, 2008 as compared to Rs 27552.60 million for the year

ended March 31, 2007. Total Income has increased from Rs 130294.80 million for the yearended March 31, 2007 to Rs 152452.90 million for the year ended March 31, 2008.

Marcator Line

Company on May 23, 2008 has taken delivery of a 2008 built vessel (Dredger). This is thefourth Dredger in its fleet. Mercator reports close to 3-fold jump in Net Profit to Rs 370 Crore,supported by growing fleet, buoyant shipping demand and firm freight rates in Dry CarriersSegment

HDIL

The Group has posted a net profit of Rs 14098.40 million for the year ended March 31, 2008 ascompared to Rs 5480.00 million for the year ended March 31, 2007. Total Revenue hasincreased from Rs 12247.90 million for the year ended March 31, 2007 to Rs 24332.90 millionfor the year ended March 31, 2008.


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Guest Column

Forgiveness- A Catch-22

Forgiveness is probably a physiological dilemma for all of us. One can be in a big mental

catch- 22 situation where own ego makes this simple looking word forgive more complex thanit is.

I am emphasizing here more on this word because one simple word makes a lot of change inlife.

Forgiveness makes life Easy and QuickMore over it requires no Therapy or Digging up the past.

To experience this feeling of forgiveness requires to see the world quite differently and to opento a whole new way of looking at life. It is to become free, joyous and empowered.Although forgiveness brings many benefits, particularly to the forgiver, to forgive is not alwayseasy. In fact, many people who would like to let go of anger and forgive, are stumped with thequestion of how to forgive. While everyone may have an unique perspective on this.

Forgiveness is a Step by Step Process :

1. Remembering in detail what happened and how it made you feel2. Understanding the other person, hearing what they thought happened and how they

felt as they experienced it3. Identifying the reasons that prevent you from reaching forgiveness, your expectations of

how you would have liked them to have acted

4. Choosing to accept responsibility for your life and choosing to release yourself fromyour expectations and the reasons that keep you from forgiving.

5. Creating a ritual act of release, of letting go and forgiving, as for example, shakinghands, burning lists of what the others person did wrong.

The following strategies have been proven effective for a variety of people.

People dont need to know that youve forgiven them; forgiveness is more for you than for theother person.

In contemplating how to forgive someone, it may or may not help to express your feelings tothe other person. If the relationship is important to you and you would like to maintain it, itmay be very useful for you to tell the other person -- in non-threatening language -- how theiractions affected you. if the person is no longer in your life, if you want to cut off therelationship, or if you have reason to believe that things will get much worse if you address thesituation directly, you may want to just write a letter and tear it up (or burn it) and move on. Itstill may help to put your feelings into words as part of letting go.


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The way you write about it and what you choose to focus on can make all the difference - it means go for positive

Research shows that journaling about the benefits youv e gotten from a negative situationrather than focusing on the emotions you have surrounding the event, or writing aboutsomething unrelated -- can actually help you to forgive and move on more easily.

Put yourself in their shoes

Instead of seeing them as the enemy, try to understand the factors that they were dealingwith. Were they going through a particularly difficult time in their lives? Have you ever madesimilar mistakes? Try to remember the other persons good qualities, assume that their motiwere not to purposely cause you pain (unless you have clear indicators otherwise), and youmay find it easier to forgive.

First time, shame on you; Second time, shame on me.

Sometimes its difficult to forgive if you feel that forgiveness leaves y ou open to the futurerepeats of same negative treatment. Its important to understand that forgiveness is not thesame as condoning the offending action, and its ok (and sometimes vital) to include self-protective plans for the future as part of your forgiveness process. For example, if you have aco-worker who continually steals your ideas, belittles you in front of the group, or gossips aboutyou, such ongoing negative behavior can be difficult to forgive. In fact, blanket forgiveness of someone who is c ontinually hurting you isnt necessarily a good idea for your emotional healthanyway. However, if you make a plan to address the behavior with human resources, move toanother department, or switch jobs to get out of the negative situation, releasing your angerand trying to forgive will bring the benefits of forgiveness without opening you up to further

abuse. You dont need to hold a grudge in order to protect yourself.Using the very simple technology of forgiveness, will help you let go of the anger, blame,resentment and judgment around the situations that have kept your energy blocked. You willcome to see how, even though it doesn't always feel like it, the universe is truly supporting youin healing your victim stories so you can become who you were meant to be, and that theuniverse is constantly moving you in the direction of healing and spiritual growth. You may evenbecome open to seeing that the people who seem to be the biggest problems in your life arethe very ones who are your greatest teachers, and who are offering you healing opportunities.From the moment your awareness is 'turned on,' all the pain of the past will evaporate, yourlife will begin to work better, your relationships will improve and you will be so much happier.You will be forever changed by this experience, for it is profound and long lasting.

After forgiveness comes reconciliation, the ability to be in the presence of the other personwithout feeling angry or vulnerable. It is the highest point of healing. Reconciliation may or may not take place following forgiveness, since it requires direct contact with the other person toeliminate old patterns and create a basis for healthy emotional interaction .

Anu GargHR, K. Raheja Corporate Services


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