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Toward Indonesia 2030+
Johny Setiawan
KEDUTAAN BESAR REPUBLIK INDONESIA BERLINEmbassy of the Republic of Indonesia
Berlin, Germany
Seminar Ilmiah Se-EropaBerkarya untuk Indonesia, 2 Juni 2012
Wageningen, The Netherlands
June 1956
Visit of President Soekarno to USA, Canada,
Italy, Vatican, West Germany and Switzerland
Original caption: Indonesian president honored at Columbia. New York, New York: Indonesian president Sukarno is shown being invested by Dean Harry J. Carman of Columbia with the hood of the degree of Doctor of Laws in ceremonies at the university today. L. to R.: Dean Carman; Dr. Sukarno and Dr. Grayson Kirk, president of Columbia. Dr. Kirk introduced the first president of the Southeast Asia republic as "a political pioneer of a great frontier of today and tomorrow."Image: © Bettmann/CORBISDate Photographed: May 24, 1956Location Information: New York, New York, USA
Dr. Soekarno, 22 June 1956Universität Heidelberg, Germany
DIE GEISTIGE STRÖMUNG IN ASIEN ALS MORALISCHE KRAFT IN DER WELT
THE SPIRITUAL FLOW IN ASIA AS MORAL FORCE IN THE WORLD
Indonesia 1956:
82 million people
94% iliteracy
Highest mortality in the world
Underdeveloped economy
All it had was Pancasila and Bhinneka Tunggal Ika
Where is Indonesia now?
• Demography: population of 240 million people
(2011)
Fourth largest country
in the world by population
171,8 million people in productive age
Where is Indonesia now?
• Demography: Human Development Index
HDI = 0.617 (medium) UNDP 2011
Where is Indonesia now?
• Demography: Indonesian HDI compared to other
nations medium, but still in the lower middle
Where is Indonesia now?
• Demography: life expectancy of 69,4 years.
male= 66 years, female= 71 years - WHO 2012
Where is Indonesia now?
• Demography: under-five mortality rate of
39 per 1000
Where is Indonesia now?
• Demography: Poverty – measured by
Multidimensional poverty indexThe index uses the same three dimensions as the Human Development Index: health,
education, and standard of living. These are measured using ten indicators. Each
dimension and indicator is equally weighted.
Where is Indonesia now?
• Education: literacy rate of 92% (higher than
some arabian countries and India).
Where is Indonesia now?
• Education: indonesian children spend in average 13.2 years at school
Where is Indonesia now?
• Economy: GDP growth = 6,5% (2011) IMF 2012
GDP (2011)
= 850 billion USD
Indonesia‘s GDP
growth is higher
than the world‘s
GDP growth in the
last 10 years, but
still below the
average growth of
the developing asia
countries.
Where is Indonesia now?
• Economy: GDP per capita
Developing asia
countries have GDP
per capita values
between 500 – 5000
USD, with two
exception:
-Brunei Darussalam
-Malaysia
Where is Indonesia now?
• GDP per capita compared with other developing
countries.
GDP per capita is lower than the average of the world developing countries, but since 2009 higher than the average of developing asia –without Brunei.
Where is Indonesia now?
• Economy: Inflation rate ~5% p.a.
Instable in the last 10 years: irregular compared to the world and developing asia.
Where is Indonesia now?
• Economy: Unemployment rate 6,6% BPS 8/2011
Indonesia had a very low unemployment rate in early 1990‘s – the highest (worst) rate in 2004.
Since 2009 the unemploy-ment rate is even lower than those of advanced economy and developing asia countries.
Where is Indonesia now?
• Export:
203,5 billion
USD (2011)
Within ASEAN
still behind
Singapore,
Malaysia and
Thailand
- Minerals
- Rubber
- Electronic
- Paper
- Textile
Where is Indonesia now?
• Import:
177,4 billion
USD (2011)
- Machinery
- Chemical products
- Iron & steel
- Electronic
- Vehicle
Where is Indonesia now?• Public debt: 230,5 billion USD (2011) BANK INDONESIA 04/2012
• Debt Ratio : 25% of GDP (low)
•
Where is Indonesia now?
• Reserves: continuously growing, but not as
fast as Brazil, India and Thailand
Indonesia is in the middle
field in the global economy
But, ...
Where is Indonesia now?
• Economy: External debt
In contrary to the
economic
development,
research is still far
behind and under
developed (GERD
less than 0.1%).
There are many
countries with
lower Human
Development Index
with higher GERD!
Research & Development: a paradox!
Indonesia in 2030+(positive projection)
• Among the biggest world economy
• Highly educated nation
• Leading country in
– Renewable energy
– Global market
– Sustainable industry
– Tourism
Indonesia in 2050
Rank 8: with GDP 6205 billion USD
Indonesia will
overtake:
Turkey (2015)
Spain (2021)
South Korea (2024)
Italy (2030)
France (2040)
Germany (2047)
Indonesia in 2030+(negative projection)
• Fall into deep economic crisis
• Low education level, low life expectancy
• Brain drain
• Unsolved problems:– Political riots, corruption
– Lost of natural resources
– Nature catastrophe
– Disintegration, ethnic war
– Dissolution of the nation
2030+
IT‘S YOUR TIME
MAKE THE RIGHT CHOICE AND
DECISION NOW!
Efforts
• Work
• Management
– Planning
– Systematical
– Efficiency
• Endurance
• Self-improvement, creativity
Leafcutter ants
Copyright 2010, photolibrary.com
Opportunity / Chance
• Formal education
• Informal education
• Facility
• Network, cooperation
• Timing
• Publicity
Mars Exploration Rover OPPORTUNITY - NASA
External factor: „Fortune“
• Natural potential
• Superstar phanomenon
• Extraordinary situation
Copyright Duckipedia - Disney
Challenges
• Limited resources: facilities, infrastructure
• Lack of information & knowledge
• Unorganized (weak management)
• Disintegration
• High competition
• etc.
Titel:The Disintegration of Persistence of
Memory c.1952/54
Künstler:Salvador Dali
Standort:Salvador Dali Museum Florida USA
Orig. Größe:unbekannt
NUM: DAS-3418
Indonesian studentsTotal immatriculated students 2009/2010 = 4,3 millions
Total graduated students 2009/2010 = 655 thousands
Overseas indonesian students:
in the top destinations alone > 62.000Destination Country Number of students Reference
Australia 12.984 Atdiknas-Canberra 2011
China 10.957 Antara NEWS 2012
Singapore > 10.000 (To be confirmed) Various media
Malaysia 10.020 Ministry of Higher EducationMalaysia, 31/12/2008
USA 7502 Institute of International Education 2009
Egypt 3995 Atdiknas Cairo (2009)
Germany 2869 Statistisches Bundesamt 2012
Japan 2162 Japan Student Services Organization 2010/2011
The Netherlands 1182 Netherlands organisation for international cooperation in higher education, 2010-2011
United Kingdom 1030 KOMPAS, 23/3/2010
To reach successful Indonesia 2030+
at least 27% of them (PhD/Master) should
return to Indonesia and have the
opportunity to develop and continue their
researches as project leaders
How much budget does Indonesia
need for research
• 33 Provinces
• For each province / region:Large
projectsMedium size
projectsSmall sizeprojects
Number of projects 2 20 50
Top scientists / Head of projects
10 (2 x 5) 20 50
Experts/specialists/senior 40 (2 x 20) 40 50
Research staffs, technical, PhD students
120 (2 x 60) 80 100
Undergraduate students 200 (2 x 100) 60 100
Administration 10 (2 x 5) 20 50
How much budget does Indonesia
need for research
• Projects funding and salary:Large projects Medium size
projectsSmall sizeprojects
Number of projects 2 x 10 Mio. USD
20 x 2 Mio. USD
50 x 0.5 Mio. USD
Top scientists / Head of projects
10 x 12 x 7000 USD
20 x 12 x 7000 USD
50 x 12 x 7000 USD
Experts/specialists/senior 40 x 12 x 3500 USD
40 x 12 x 3500 USD
50 x 12 x 3500 USD
Research staffs, technical, PhD students
120 x 12 x 2000 USD
80 x 12 x 2000 USD
100 x 12 x 2000 USD
Undergraduate students 200 x 12 x 500 USD
60 x 12 x 500 USD
100 x 12 x 500 USD
Administration 10 x 12 x 1000 USD
20 x 12 x1000 USD
50 x 12 x1000 USD
How much budget does Indonesia
need for research
• Projects funding and salary
Large projects Medium size projects
Small sizeprojects
Number of projects 20 Mio. USD 40 Mio. USD 25 Mio. USD
Top scientists / Head of projects
840.000 USD 1,68 Mio. USD 4,2 Mio. USD
Experts/specialists/senior 1,68 Mio. USD 1,68 Mio. USD 2,1 Mio. USD
Research staffs, technical, PhD students
2,8 Mio. USD 1,92 Mio. USD 2,4 Mio. USD
Undergraduate students 1,2 Mio. USD 360.000 USD 600.000 USD
Administration 120.000 USD 240.000 USD 600.000 USD
TOTAL 26,72 Mio.USD
45,88 Mio.USD
34,90 Mio.USD
How much budget does Indonesia
need for research
• Estimated needed funding for 33 provincesLarge projects Medium size
projectsSmall sizeprojects
Total per province/region 26,72 Mio USD 45,88 Mio USD
34,90 Mio USD
For 33 province 881,76 Mio USD
1514,04 Mio USD
1151,17 Mio USD
Budget
2376 research projects in Indonesia / year
3,547 billion USD2,838 billion EUR
GDP Indonesia 0,85 trilyun USD (2011)
0.42% of GDP
International comparison
Institution Annual budget Reference
Harvard University 3.907,6 Mio. USD Harvard University,
Financial Report, FISCAL
YEAR 2011
MIT 2.571,1 Mio. USD MIT FACTS,
Fiscal Year 2011
Max-Planck Society 1,5 Billion EUR (~2.700 Mio. USD)
MPG, 2012
Helmholtz Association 3,4 Billion EUR(~4.250 Mio. USD)
Zahlen und Fakten,
Helmholtz Gemeinschaft,
2012
Leibniz Association 1,4 Billion EUR(~1.750 Mio. USD)
DAAD, 2012
Fraunhofer Society 1,8 Billion EUR(~2.250 Mio. USD)
Zahlen und Fakten auf
einem Blick – Fraunhofer G.
INDONESIA 2030+ 3.547 Mio. USD
WHY INDONESIA SHOULD SPEND 3,55 BILLION USD/YEAR FOR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT?
Question:
DESCRIPTION 2011
MACHINERY 24.728,80
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENTS 18.245,20
IRON AND STEEL 8.580,50
VEHICLES OTHER THAN TRAINS 7.602,80
PLASTIC & PLASTIC ARTICLES 6.687,50
ORGANIC CHEMICAL 6.634,80
CEREALS 4.753,10
ARTICLES OF IRON OR STEEL 3.573,30
AIRCRAFT AND SPACECRAFT 3.420,90
COTTON 3.169,10
FERTILIZERS 2.587,50
RUBBER AND RUBBER ARTICLES 2.346,70
FOOD WASTE AND ANIMAL FODDER 2.219,20
SHIPS AND BOATS 1.945,70
SUGARS AND SUGAR CONFECTIONERY 1.900,30
ALUMINIUM 1.896,00
CHEMICALS AND ALLIED PRODUCTS 1.820,50
OPTICALS, PHOTOGRAPHIC AND MEASURING EQUIPMENT, MEDICAL INS- 1.812,30
WOOD PULP AND WASTE 1.800,70
PEBT 1.796,60
MISCELLANEOUS CHEMICAL PRODUCTS 1.697,30
SEEDS AND GRAINS 1.550,10
COPPER 1.375,60
PAPER 1.369,50
KNITTED OR CROCHETED FABRICS 1.265,40
TANS, DYES, PIGMENTS, PAINTS, VARNISHES, INKS 1.205,20
MAN-MADE FILAMENTS 1.197,00
MAN-MADE STAPLE FIBRES 1.179,40
DAIRY PRODUCTS 1.163,00
SALT, SULPHUR, EARTHS AND STONE, PLASTER, LIME AND CEMENT 938
FRUIT AND NUTS 829
ESSENTIAL OILS AND RESINOIDS, PERFUMERY, COSMETICS OR TOILET 752,5
MISCELLANEOUS FOODS 643,1
FLOUR 616,6
EDIBLE VEGETABLES 599,1
TOBACCO AND SUBSTITUTES 591,7
MISCELLANEOUS ARTICLES OF BASE METALS 579,7
ORES, SLAG AND ASH 559,6
INDUSTRIAL TEXTILE FIBRES 528,8
SOAP, WASHING PREPARATIONS, LUBRICATING PREPARATIONS, WAXES 526,8
TOOLS AND CUTLERY 526,7
PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCTS 521,5
COFFEE, TEA AND SPICES 482,5
FURNITURE, BEDDING, LAMPS, ILLUM. SIGNS 466,1
RAW HIDES, SKINS AND LEATHERS 459,8
WOOD 409,2
ALBUMINOIDAL SUBSTANCES, MODIFIED STARCHES, GLUES, ENZYMES 401,9
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED ARTICLES 370,7
FOOTWEAR 352,6
MEAT 331,9
OTHERS 5.722,20
NON OIL 136.734,00
Indonesian Import
volume 2011
Non oil & Gas:
136,7 billion USDKementrian Perdagangan RI
Total:
177,4 billion USDBadan Pusat Statistik
Import commodity (2011) Million USD
Electrical equipments 18.245,20
Articles of Iron or Steels 3.573,00
Food Waste & Animal Fooder 2.219,00
Opticals, Photographics and Measuring
Equipment, Medical
1.812,30
Tans, dyes, pigments, paints,
varnishes, inks
1.205,20
Fruits and nuts 829,00
Soap, washing preparations, lubricating
preparations, waxes
526,80
Tools and cutlery 526,70
TOTAL 28.937,20
~29 billion USD
Indonesia could have saved 25 billion USD, if it
invested 3,6 billion USD in research & development.
Preliminary Summary & Conclusions
• Indonesia has a great achievement from underdeveloped nation to middle field global economy.
• Indonesia is however still retarded in research & technology development.
• Improvement in GERD to 0.42% of GDP could save at least 18% of import – and the same time support the export.
TO BE CONTINUED ...Thank you
