The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends...The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018-2030 Director, AVICENNE ENERGY Christophe PILLOT Berlin, Germany May 24th, 2019

The Rechargeable Battery Market

and Main Trends 2018-2030

Director, AVICENNE ENERGY

Christophe PILLOTBerlin, Germany

May 24th, 2019

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

[email protected]

Presentation Outline• The rechargeable battery market in 2018• The Li-ion battery value chain• Battery for Automotive forecasts• Industrial battery forecasts• Conclusions


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The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends

2018 - 2030

Tech Day workshop –in CBMM Niobium Mobility

Tech Center

Berlin, Germany

May 24th, 2019

OEM INVESTMENT IN VEHICLE

ELECTRIFICATION

Ford will invest $11 billion by 2022 to launch 40 new electric cars and hybrids worldwide

Volkswagen plan to spend $40 Billion by 2030 to build electrified versions of its 300-plus global models

Daimler will spend at least $11,7 billion to introduce 10 pure electric 40 hybrid models

Nissan pledged to launch 8 new electric vehicles and hit annual sales of 1 million electrifiedvehicles by 2022

Toyota will launch 10 Evs by the early 2020s and sell 5,5 million electrified vehicles, includinghybrids and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, by 2030

BMW will offer 25 electrified (12 fully electric) vehicles by 2025

GM pledging to sell 20 all-electric vehicles by 2023

Honda says two-thirds of total car sales to be electrified models by 2030

Chinese automakers, all have publicized aggressive investment plans

2

Carmakers to invest more than $90 Billion in EV

Source: Ted Miller, Ford, AABC Japan 2018 (From Reuters Jan 2018 Publication) – Avicenne Energy


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2018 - 2030


Tech Center

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May 24th, 2019

CARMAKERS TO INVEST MORE THAN $300 BILLION IN EV

3Source: Reuters January 2019, Avicenne Energy

91

42

20

15

14

11

10

10

10

10

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

5

3.9

2.5

2.3

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.3

0 50 100

VolkswagenDaimlerHyundai

ChanganToyota

FordFiat Chrysler

NissanRenault

TeslaGM

Great Wall (China)BMWGAC

JACMahindra (India):

GeelySAIC

DongfengBYD

BAICJaguar Land Rover

Tata (India)PSA

VolvoHondaCheryFAW

Mazda


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2018 - 2030


Tech Center

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May 24th, 2019

WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

OVERVIEW

4Source: AT Kearney, Duracell, AVICENNE ENERGY 2019

(1) Non rechargeable – Source: AT Kearney, Duracell, Avicenne – Based on selling price from manufacturer to retailer

69 75 81

12.513

14

2016 2017 2018

Battery market in value (2016-2018, global, $bn, all market segments, all technologies)

Expected CAGR 18-30 (%)

+8%

~ +2-3 %

+7-9%

8288

(1)

Primary

Rechargeable

95


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2018 - 2030


Tech Center

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May 24th, 2019

THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY

DYNAMIC

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2000 2018

Mill

ion

Un

its

/ ye

ar

Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

NiMH

164 MPortable PCs

155 M Tablets

0

100

200

300

400

2000 2018

Mill

ion

Un

its/

Ye

ar

Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

2.6

< 0,15

0

1

2

3

2000 2018

$/W

h

Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)

7 000

> 340 000

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

2000 2018

Ton

s

Tons of cathode active materials

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019 5


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2018 - 2030


Tech Center

Berlin, Germany

May 24th, 2019

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

MW

h

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000M

Wh

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

1990-2018Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (>70% market share)



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2018 - 2030


Tech Center

Berlin, Germany

May 24th, 2019


1990-2018

37,5

40

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

19

90

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

Bill

ion

US

$

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

80 BILLION US$ in 2018 – Pack level1

9% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (2010-2018)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

19

90

20

05

20

14

20

16

20

18

Bill

ion

US$

OTHERS

AUTOMOTIVE

INDUSTRIAL

E-BIKES

POWER TOOLS

PORTABLE

SLI

SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc…

PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals,

POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools

1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

INDUSTRIAL• MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others• STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others

(Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear,

AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EVOTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators, drones, Light Electric Vehicles, Hoverboard, …



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2018 - 2030


Tech Center

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May 24th, 2019


1990-2018

8Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019

Lead Acid Batteries 2018

420 GWh for > US $ 37 Billion

75%

17%3%4%

1%

SLI

Industry, ESS

E-bikes

LSEV

Others

22%

20%

13%

45%

Telecom

UPS

OtherStationary, ESS

Motive

Industrial Batteries – Lead acid batteries

69 GWh for US $ 11 Billion

% In volume

% In volume

medical, marine, others…

In volume (MWh)

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

MW

h

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid


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2018 - 2030


Tech Center

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May 24th, 2019

LI-ION IN 2018 - MAIN APPLICATIONS

9

(1) Cell levelOthers: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…Source: AVICENNE Energy 2019

>160 000 MWh - 31 B$ (1) CAGR 2008/2018

+24 % per year in Volume

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales,MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2017

Others

Industrial,ESS

Auto, E-busChina

Auto, e-busExcl. China

Electronicdevices

Phones17%

Portable PC66%

Portable Electronics

17%

2000: < 2GWh

2018: 160 GWh

Electronic devices

20%

Auto, E-bus Excl. China

20%

Auto, E-bus China44%

Industrial, ESS5%

Others11%


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2018 - 2030


Tech Center

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May 24th, 2019

HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2018

2,5 M HEVHEV sold per year, M units, worldwide,

2000 - 2018

Penetration of hybrids in the global sales,

2000-2018

10Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGYMicro hybrid not included

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

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11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

Mill

ion

TOYOTA OTHERS

USA

JAPON

EUROPE0%

10%

20%

30%

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

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20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

Pe

ne

trat

ion

of

HEV

Growth 2017-2018: +9%From 2,3 M to 2,5 M HEV

Gazoline price impact on HEV market in

the US

0

1

2

3

4

0

200000

400000

600000

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

Gas

olin

e$

/ G

allo

n

HEV

sal

es p

er y

ear


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2018 - 2030


Tech Center

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May 24th, 2019

PHEV SOLD WORLDWIDE > 535 000 IN 2018

World excl. China growth +18%

Chinese Growth + 100%

China is leading the P-HEV

market thanks to high incentives

11Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 2019

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

P-H

EV (

un

its)

OTHERS

CHINA

EUROPE

US

+37%

US22%

EUROPE32%

CHINA35%

Others11%

USA (+40%)

Japan (-30%)

Europe (+25%)

China (+100%)

Others

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

P-H

EV (

un

its)


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2018 - 2030


Tech Center

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May 24th, 2019 0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

EV (

un

its)

OTHERS

CHINA

EUROPE

US

EV SOLD WORLDWIDE> 1,4 M IN 2018World excl. China growth > 65%

Chinese Growth > 65%

China is leading the EV market

thanks to high incentives

12Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 2019

> 65%

US17%

EUROPE16%

CHINA63%

OTHERS4%

USA (+130%)

Japan (+50%)

Europe (+30%)

China (+70%)

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018EV

(u

nit

s)


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2018 - 2030


Tech Center

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May 24th, 2019

LITHIUM ION CELL PRODUCTION

13

China – 60%USA – 2%

EU -<1%

Japan – 17%

Korea – 15%

PanasonicNECMaxellPEVEYUASA

SAFTFIAMM

BOLLORE

SAMSUNGLGSKIKokam

CATLBYD

Optinum NanoHefei Guoxuan

BAKLISHEN

FARASISEVE

Wanxiang (A123)Coslight

LGSAMSUNG

PANASONIC…

LGJohnson-Controls

EnersysSAFT

…TESLA

SAMSUNGLG

Others* – 5%

Source: AVICENNE 2019

* OTHERS: Malaysia mostly

$ 5 Bn35 GWh2019

$ 562 M3-5 GWh2018

$ 5 Bn34 GWh2028

$ 360 M2-3 GWh2018

$ 5 Bn32 GWh2023

122 162

191

247 297

350

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

-

100

200

300

400

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pro

du

ctio

n R

atio

(%

)

Pro

d. C

apac

ity

MW

h

Production Capacity

Demand

Production Ratio

790 M$7,5 GWh2020

$ 282 M14 GWh2022

25 GWhSolid State ?2024-2025

EUROPE

European market demand

150 GWh in 2025

$ 1 Bn?

https://www.terrae.com/


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Tech Center

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May 24th, 2019

BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

2018-2030

Portable PCs, net-book, Ultra-bookCellular Phones, Smart-phonesTabletsPower BankCamcordersCordless Tools, Gardening toolsDigital CameraGames, MP3Cordless PhonesShavers, Toothbrush, RC Cars, ToysDronesHoverboardE-bikesPower toolsSecurity lightingVehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV, E-busesIndustrial motive (forklift)Industrial stationary (UPS, Telecom)MedicalEnergy Storage (Small / large)

Applications covered Parameters analysis

14

Main segment trends

Power need trends (volume, weight, capacity, running time)

Penetration rate for each Chemistry, each form factor,

2018 -2030 Forecasts

OEM strategies and positions

Main drivers & limiters


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May 24th, 2019

2030 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE

ELECTRONIC DEVICES2000-2030 LIB market, MWh, by

application (3C)

2000-2025 LIB market, M cells,

by form factor (3C)

15

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M c

ells

/yea

r

Li-Pouch Li-ion Pr

Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 2013 (1)

(1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

CAGR 17-30: + 4%

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

18

20

20

20

25

20

30

MW

h

Other PortableElectronics

Tablets

Portable PCs

Cellular Phones


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Tech Center

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May 24th, 2019

TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS

IN LIB INDUSTRY

The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming. Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 27 years ago.LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (25 years ago) Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (23 years ago). So, it takes between 10 & 20 years to commercialize a new material in the battery industry.

16


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SAFETY ISSUES

17

Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious safety

concernsIn the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projectsB

ac

kg

rou

nd

Mo

bile

Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid

electrolyte.

In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction

starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”)

In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of 400 million USD, more

than there profit-to-date

Au

tom

oti

ve

Air

cra

ft

Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused

by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to

melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell.

CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.

With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns: (1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !) (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota)

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY


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May 24th, 2019

LI-ION BATTERY COST

2018-2025LIB cell average cost (40 Ah pouch)

(EV design ; NMC622 cathode)

LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR

EV

18* For Production > 100 000 packs/year(1) Active materials only

2020 20252018

0

50

100

150

200

250

Ce

ll

Pac

k

Ce

ll

Pac

k

Ce

ll

Pac

k

$ /

kW

h

Pack Cost

CellManufacturing

Other Materials

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode

Cathode-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2010 2018 2020 2025

$ /

kW

hMargin

Warranty

Overheads

Sales & Adm

R&D

Energy, utilities

Direct labor

Depreciation

Scraps

Others

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode (1)

Cathode (1)

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2019


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May 24th, 2019

0.08 0.2 0.40.9

1.5

0.30.5

0.8

2.5

6.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

20

10

20

15

20

18

20

20

20

25

20

30

Mill

ion

car

s

HEV, P-HEV, EV 2030 FORECASTS

19HEV: 1kWh battery / car

HEV manufactured PHEV manufactured

11.7

3.6

6.4

0.5

0.9

2.9

7.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

20

10

20

15

20

18

20

20

20

25

20

30

kWh

/ P

ack

Mill

ion

car

s

EV manufactured

1.1 2.2 3.45.2

14.0

29.0

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

20

10

20

15

20

18

20

20

20

25

20

30

% L

i-io

n H

EV

Mill

ion

car

s

0,7

1,2

7,5

PHEV: 12 kWh battery / car

1

6,5

13,8

China

World Excl.China

World Excl.China

China

World Excl.China

Realistic Scenario

3,4

2,6


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May 24th, 2019

LONG TERM EV FORECAST

20

(1) EIA – Avicenne estimation based on “Stock” numbers

EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 2010 – 2030

AAB, AABC US, June 2017BNEF, BATTERIES 2017, October 2017AVICENNE Analysis 2018

AVICENNE 2018 (Base)

BNEF 2017

TOTAL 2017 High

TOTAL 2017 Low

EIA (1)

AVICENNE 2018 (Realist)

Navigant (2017)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

AAB HIGH 2017AAB LOW 2017


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Tech Center

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May 24th, 2019

TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND FOR XEV

2030 FORECASTS

21

Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery

needs (MWh)

CAGR 2015-2030: +26%

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

M W

h

12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEVEV EV & PHEV China E-busE-bus excl. China

Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery

needs (M$)

CAGR 2015-2030: +18%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

M $

12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV

EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China

E-Bus excl. China


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LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

22

Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…

Source: AVICENNE Energy 2019

From 160 GWh in 2018 to >1,2 TWh CAGR 2015/2030

+20 % per year in Volume

2018: >160 GWh

2030: 1200 GWh

Electronic devices

5%

Auto, E-bus Excl. China47%


Industrial, ESS3%

Others7%

CAGR 15/30(Optimistic)

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales,MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2030

Others

Industrial, ESS

Auto, E-bus China

Auto, e-bus Excl.China

Electronic devices

14%

18%

24%

29%

4%

Electronic devices

20%

Auto, E-bus Excl. China

20%


Industrial, ESS5%

Others11%


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TAKEAWAYS

23

Others: Automatic handling equipment, robots, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, drones, Hoverboard……

Li-ion battery is driven today by Automotive: 1% of the automotive market consume 60% of the LIB

In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion for HEV

P-HEV, EV and E-buses will be powered by Li-ion: 18 B$ market in 2017 - 36 B$ in 2020 & 75 B$ in 2030 with high numbers in China (2017: US$5 Billion for xEV and US$ 4 Billion for xE-Buses)

EV expectations attract large Chemical companies

New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards

HEV will account for 4% of the auto sales in 2020

P-HEV & EV for 2-3% by 2020

Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% in 2020/25

Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume, but Li-ion market (US$ 40 Bn) will be higher than Lead acid in value in 2018 (US$ 38 Bn)

A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries

New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, hoverboard, drones: CAGR > 10% in the next 15 years

Lithium battery for other application (ESS, stationary, industrial…) will reach 10 Billion $ market at the pack level in the next 5 years

ESS market could be much more important if the price of LIB at the system level is under 150 $/kWh

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET

WORLDWIDE 2000-2025 (base scenario)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GW

h

Others

LIB

NiMH

NiCd

Lead Acid

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Lead Acid (+5%) NiCd (-6%)NiMH (-7%) LIB for 3C (-1%)LIB for xEV (+19%) LIB for Others* (+12%)

25B$30B$

65 B$

100 B$

170 B$

210325

1000 GWh

1 500 GWh

27

8

57

(CAGR 2015-2025)

75

(Pack level)

43B$

440

Battery Market 2015-2030 - CAGR = +7% / Li-ion>+10%

725

140 B$


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2018 - 2030


Tech Center

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May 24th, 2019

THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT

AVICENNE ENERGY

[email protected]

Phone: +33 1 44 55 19 90

Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

24

Documents

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends...The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018-2030 Director, AVICENNE ENERGY Christophe PILLOT Berlin, Germany May 24th, 2019