Topicality of teaching long-term forecast subject when training specialists in aquaculture Актуальность преподавания предмета «Долгосрочные

Topicality of teaching long-term Topicality of teaching long-term forecast subject when training forecast subject when training

specialists in aquaculturespecialists in aquacultureАктуальность преподавания предмета Актуальность преподавания предмета

«Долгосрочные прогнозы» при «Долгосрочные прогнозы» при подготовке специалистов подготовке специалистов

по аквакультуре по аквакультуре

Larissa A. GaykoLarissa A. GaykoV.I. Il’ichevV.I. Il’ichev Pacific Oceanological Institute FEB RAS, Pacific Oceanological Institute FEB RAS,

Baltiyskaya St., 43, Vladivostok, 690041,Baltiyskaya St., 43, Vladivostok, 690041, RussiaRussia, , E-mail: E-mail: [email protected]@yandex.ru

International Conference“50 Years of Education and Awareness Raising

for Shaping the Future of the Oceans and Coasts”Sharing lessons learned and proposing long-term projections

27-30 27-30 April April 2010 2010 St.-Petersburg

At present, a perspective line of research of a sea At present, a perspective line of research of a sea coastal zone is searching the ways to increase coastal zone is searching the ways to increase biological resources. One of such ways is sea biological resources. One of such ways is sea aquaculture or mariculture.aquaculture or mariculture.

The main difference of mariculture from fishery is The main difference of mariculture from fishery is the obligatory control of man for survival of the obligatory control of man for survival of spawn. spawn.

Mariculture is industrial cultivation and cash Mariculture is industrial cultivation and cash cropping of hydrobionts (seaweed, sea animals cropping of hydrobionts (seaweed, sea animals and plants) in sea or saltish water in controllable and plants) in sea or saltish water in controllable conditions.conditions.

Sea aquacultureSea aquaculture is a whole complex of is a whole complex of biotechnologies on manufacture and processing biotechnologies on manufacture and processing of valuable sea animals and plants.of valuable sea animals and plants.

St.-PetersburgSt.-Petersburg 22


Figure Figure 11. Technological scheme culture of . Technological scheme culture of japanese japanese

scallop: 1 - scallop: 1 - net collectors for collection scallop's net collectors for collection scallop's spat; spat;

2 - net cage for scallop culture2 - net cage for scallop culture



The Sea of Japan and especially the Peter The Sea of Japan and especially the Peter the Great Bay are considerably allocated the Great Bay are considerably allocated among other seas of Russia on number of among other seas of Russia on number of kinds of animals and plants, potential kinds of animals and plants, potential objects for cultivation. High concentration objects for cultivation. High concentration of experts of a different profile work in of experts of a different profile work in research institutes and high schools of research institutes and high schools of this region for development of the this region for development of the mariculture. mariculture.


So, in Far Eastern State Technical Fisheries So, in Far Eastern State Technical Fisheries University training of students on the University training of students on the specialty «Ichthyology and Fish Culture» on specialty «Ichthyology and Fish Culture» on the chair «Water Bioresearches and an the chair «Water Bioresearches and an Aquaculture» Fishery and Aquaculture Aquaculture» Fishery and Aquaculture Institute is made. But the training program Institute is made. But the training program does not include the disciplines allowing in does not include the disciplines allowing in aspect of a modern science to consider the aspect of a modern science to consider the influence of hydrometeorological and influence of hydrometeorological and geophysical factors of environment on an geophysical factors of environment on an aquaculture objects.aquaculture objects.


Since 60s in Primorski Krai it has been Since 60s in Primorski Krai it has been started the activity on studying scallop started the activity on studying scallop biology with reference to its cultivating biology with reference to its cultivating biotechnics. As the recommended area for biotechnics. As the recommended area for cultivating scallop in Primorski Krai it is cultivating scallop in Primorski Krai it is proposed the Pos’et Bay in which water proposed the Pos’et Bay in which water area there are considerable amounts of area there are considerable amounts of scallop. scallop.


Of mollusks a most perspective species for Of mollusks a most perspective species for artificial cultivation in the Far East is artificial cultivation in the Far East is Japanese scallop Mizuhopecten yessoensis Japanese scallop Mizuhopecten yessoensis (Jay) which possesses high rate of growth, (Jay) which possesses high rate of growth, reaching the trade sizes on the fourth year reaching the trade sizes on the fourth year of life, and presents production fine in of life, and presents production fine in flavoring and nutritious qualitiesflavoring and nutritious qualities

Complexities of making the forecast for a Complexities of making the forecast for a biological system are that this system is biological system are that this system is open and it is practically impossible to open and it is practically impossible to consider all factors influencing the process consider all factors influencing the process of its developmentof its development


Time of paradigms change has come – Time of paradigms change has come – into place of the empirical-statistical into place of the empirical-statistical approach the methodology focused on approach the methodology focused on the quantitative analysis of cause- and-the quantitative analysis of cause- and-effect relationship between effect relationship between hydrometeorological conditions and hydrometeorological conditions and farming efficiency comes, i.e. connection farming efficiency comes, i.e. connection of the descriptive hydrobiological of the descriptive hydrobiological approach and agrometeorological one, approach and agrometeorological one, characterized by integrated complexity characterized by integrated complexity and depth of the phenomena and and depth of the phenomena and processes analysis, but on a quantitative processes analysis, but on a quantitative basis. to consider all factors influencing basis. to consider all factors influencing the process of its developmentthe process of its development


The report considers the The report considers the problems of formation of a new problems of formation of a new direction of agricultural direction of agricultural meteorology – marine one, which meteorology – marine one, which task is information service for sea task is information service for sea farming which is being actively farming which is being actively developed now.developed now.

Forecasts appliedForecasts applied in mariculturein mariculture

The long-term forecasts

Short-term forecasts

Current forecasts

According to advance time, all forecasts According to advance time, all forecasts applied in mariculture for productivity applied in mariculture for productivity predicting, may be divided into three predicting, may be divided into three groups:groups:


1.1. The long-term forecastsThe long-term forecasts having advance time of having advance time of about four months. They are made on the basis of about four months. They are made on the basis of the long-term biological, hydrometeorological and the long-term biological, hydrometeorological and phenological observation. Accuracy of the long-term phenological observation. Accuracy of the long-term forecasts depends on duration of observation series forecasts depends on duration of observation series and volume of the collected long-term material.and volume of the collected long-term material.

2.2. Short-term forecastsShort-term forecasts cover the period of some days cover the period of some days prior to the beginning of spawning. For the forecast, prior to the beginning of spawning. For the forecast, out of natural populations it is done a selection of out of natural populations it is done a selection of mature mollusks and the biological analysis.mature mollusks and the biological analysis.

3.3. Current forecastsCurrent forecasts are carried out after the beginning are carried out after the beginning of larvae settling on collectors. While studying of larvae settling on collectors. While studying dynamics of larvae number in planktonic samples in dynamics of larvae number in planktonic samples in case of occurrence of new larvae generations in case of occurrence of new larvae generations in plankton it is possible to recommend additional plankton it is possible to recommend additional gathering of spat or to offer the measures protecting gathering of spat or to offer the measures protecting collectors from superfluous settling of larvae.collectors from superfluous settling of larvae.


This approach, entirely local in space and time, is This approach, entirely local in space and time, is based on use of methods of the formal statistical based on use of methods of the formal statistical analysis. With thiswell-known , the basic attention is analysis. With thiswell-known , the basic attention is given to search of direct empirical relationship given to search of direct empirical relationship between the medium and object.between the medium and object.

But the use of forecast only in this aspect But the use of forecast only in this aspect considerably limits the possibilities of considerably limits the possibilities of hydrometeorological service of sea farming and hydrometeorological service of sea farming and does not allow making forecasts of the great does not allow making forecasts of the great advance as the existing techniques of the spat advance as the existing techniques of the spat productivity forecast have an empirical character.productivity forecast have an empirical character.

Time of paradigms change has come – into place of the Time of paradigms change has come – into place of the empirical-statistical approach the methodology empirical-statistical approach the methodology focused on the quantitative analysis of cause- and-focused on the quantitative analysis of cause- and-effect relationship between hydrometeorological effect relationship between hydrometeorological conditions and farming efficiency comes, i.e.conditions and farming efficiency comes, i.e. connectionconnection of the descriptive hydrobiological of the descriptive hydrobiological approach and agrometeorological one, characterized approach and agrometeorological one, characterized by integrated complexity and depth of the by integrated complexity and depth of the phenomena and processes analysis, but on a phenomena and processes analysis, but on a quantitative basis.quantitative basis.


The new methodology is based onThe new methodology is based on modeling of cause-modeling of cause-and-effect relationships between and-effect relationships between hydrometeorological conditions and sea farming hydrometeorological conditions and sea farming efficiency.efficiency.

It is needed an essentially new approach based on It is needed an essentially new approach based on use of the climatic information for sea farming in use of the climatic information for sea farming in prognostic purposes which is used with success for prognostic purposes which is used with success for a long time at making forecasts in agricultural a long time at making forecasts in agricultural meteorology. With this, it is considered large meteorology. With this, it is considered large variety of abiotic factors influencing the biological variety of abiotic factors influencing the biological object that does it possible to useobject that does it possible to use physical-physical-statistical schemesstatistical schemes for the forecast.for the forecast.


Statistical methods are based on an estimation of Statistical methods are based on an estimation of both synchronous and asynchronous correlation both synchronous and asynchronous correlation dependences between the values of various dependences between the values of various hydrometeorological elements.hydrometeorological elements. These methods These methods allow making forecasts for the biological objects allow making forecasts for the biological objects productivity for various advance time.productivity for various advance time.

Synoptical-statistical methods of the forecast of Synoptical-statistical methods of the forecast of productivity of agricultural crops were productivity of agricultural crops were developed on the basis of methods of long-term developed on the basis of methods of long-term weather forecasts.weather forecasts. As at making the long-term As at making the long-term weather forecasts it is considered a set of weather forecasts it is considered a set of factors being sources of the long-term factors being sources of the long-term anomalies of weather, it is expedient to build anomalies of weather, it is expedient to build multiple parameter schemes which would multiple parameter schemes which would include most significant of them.include most significant of them.


Let's consider theoretical approaches of agricultural Let's consider theoretical approaches of agricultural meteorology with reference to sea farming.meteorology with reference to sea farming.

By analogy, the major problem at long-term By analogy, the major problem at long-term forecasting of productivity in sea farming is the forecasting of productivity in sea farming is the choice of the most informative predictors. First of choice of the most informative predictors. First of all, considered are the factors influencing annual all, considered are the factors influencing annual cycle of mollusks, such as water temperature, cycle of mollusks, such as water temperature, especially its variability; salinity of water; number especially its variability; salinity of water; number of degree-days; food conditions; wind mode; solar of degree-days; food conditions; wind mode; solar radiation, quantity and intensity of precipitation; radiation, quantity and intensity of precipitation; atmospheric pressure; sea currents; tidal atmospheric pressure; sea currents; tidal phenomena; Moon phases; lunar and other phenomena; Moon phases; lunar and other rhythms; solar eclipses; etc.rhythms; solar eclipses; etc.

Further it is carried out the quantitative analysis of Further it is carried out the quantitative analysis of synchronous dependences ofsynchronous dependences of predictand andand predictorspredictors by calculation of factors of correlation by calculation of factors of correlation and analogousness that allows revealing the and analogousness that allows revealing the closest dependences between productivity of closest dependences between productivity of scallop and abiotic factors.scallop and abiotic factors. St.-PetersburgSt.-Petersburg 1616

Research of a temporal series of sea faming Research of a temporal series of sea faming productivity allows us to draw a conclusion, that productivity allows us to draw a conclusion, that both in agricultural production, and in mariculture, it both in agricultural production, and in mariculture, it isis non-stationary non-stationary since productivity fluctuations are since productivity fluctuations are caused by level of farming techniques, long-term caused by level of farming techniques, long-term climate fluctuations, etc.climate fluctuations, etc.

To distinguish these essential factors from time series To distinguish these essential factors from time series of productivity the agrometeorologists proposed of productivity the agrometeorologists proposed conceptconcept “ “tendencytendency”” or “ or “trend component of trend component of productivityproductivity”.”.

Such approach with regard to mariculture on the Such approach with regard to mariculture on the example of the scallop productivity forecast was example of the scallop productivity forecast was applied by the author for the first time.applied by the author for the first time. By analogy By analogy with agricultural meteorology, productivity of with agricultural meteorology, productivity of mollusks (Pt) is considered as a sum of two basic mollusks (Pt) is considered as a sum of two basic components: nonrandom or trend (Et) one, caused by components: nonrandom or trend (Et) one, caused by agricultural technology and long-term climate agricultural technology and long-term climate fluctuations, and a random component (∆Pt) which is fluctuations, and a random component (∆Pt) which is determined by weather peculiarities of a concrete determined by weather peculiarities of a concrete year (t), that isyear (t), that is

PPtt = E = Et t + + PPttSt.-PetersburgSt.-Petersburg 1717

Figure 2. Dynamics of scallop productivity in Minonosok Intel (1) and its trend constituent, and average many-year productivity (546 specimens/m2) (5)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002

Years

Р, i

ndiv

id/s

q.m

1234567

To distinguish nonrandom or trend componentTo distinguish nonrandom or trend componentof productivity it is carried out smoothing of a of productivity it is carried out smoothing of a mollusks productivity series and its alignment by mollusks productivity series and its alignment by means of analytical functions.means of analytical functions.


On the basis of the analysis of distribution of On the basis of the analysis of distribution of deviations from a trend all initial series of deviations from a trend all initial series of productivity by a rule of the majority of voices productivity by a rule of the majority of voices was conventionally divided into three groups: was conventionally divided into three groups: high-yielding (above the trend) years, low-high-yielding (above the trend) years, low-yielding (below the trend) years and average-yielding (below the trend) years and average-yielding (about the trend) years.yielding (about the trend) years.

Years

Good-harvest

1971

1973

1977

1983

1986

1990

1996

1999

2002

Low-harvest

1970

1974

1975

1978

1980

1982

1984

1985

1989


At construction of a prognostic scheme as a At construction of a prognostic scheme as a basis it was taken a three-level model by basis it was taken a three-level model by N.M.Pestereva (Chirkov, Pestereva, 1990), N.M.Pestereva (Chirkov, Pestereva, 1990), which well recommended itself at the rice which well recommended itself at the rice

crop forecastcrop forecast..


The mollusks crop forecasting model developed The mollusks crop forecasting model developed by the author (∆) considers simultaneously by the author (∆) considers simultaneously the condition of the sea environment, surface the condition of the sea environment, surface layers of atmosphere, tropospheric layers of atmosphere, tropospheric circulation, circulation in a stratosphere and circulation, circulation in a stratosphere and helio-physical factors. Taking into account helio-physical factors. Taking into account these factors the forecasting model is the these factors the forecasting model is the followingfollowing

Р = аР = а11 (А (А11, А, А22) + а) + а2 2 В + аВ + а33 (С (С11, С, С22, С, С33) + а) + а44


At use of these methods with reference to At use of these methods with reference to agricultural meteorology it is necessary to agricultural meteorology it is necessary to consider real-life relationship between weather, consider real-life relationship between weather, features of atmospheric circulation and condition features of atmospheric circulation and condition of a spreading surface during the previous period of a spreading surface during the previous period on the one hand, and the productivity of on the one hand, and the productivity of agricultural crops formed under the influence of agricultural crops formed under the influence of these conditions, on the other hand.these conditions, on the other hand.

ProductivityProductivity

WeatherWeather

Condition of a spreading surfaceCondition of a spreading surface

Atmospheric circulationAtmospheric circulation


Р = аР = а11 (А (А11, А, А22) + а) + а2 2 В + аВ + а33 (С (С11, С, С22, С, С33) + а) + а44

Where Where аа11, , аа22, , аа33 and and аа44 – equation factors; – equation factors;

AA11, , AA22 – – predictors, consideringpredictors, considering helio-physical helio-physical factors (solar factors (solar activity, solar and lunar eclipses) andactivity, solar and lunar eclipses) and stratosphere stratosphere circulationcirculation (position and intensity of Circum-Polar-Vortex);(position and intensity of Circum-Polar-Vortex);

ВВ – – predictors, consideringpredictors, considering troposphere circulationtroposphere circulation (forms of (forms of atmospheric circulation, types of synoptic processes);atmospheric circulation, types of synoptic processes);

СС11, , СС22, , СС33 – – predictors, considering features of a surfacepredictors, considering features of a surface atmosphereatmosphere condition over a surface of the area where the condition over a surface of the area where the crop is predicted; features of condition ofcrop is predicted; features of condition of a spreading a spreading surfacesurface of the given area (anomaly of superficial of the given area (anomaly of superficial temperature and salinity of sea water, duration of the ice temperature and salinity of sea water, duration of the ice period etc.) and consideringperiod etc.) and considering biologicalbiological features of the features of the cultivation object (thermohaline characteristics of various cultivation object (thermohaline characteristics of various biological periods, dates of origin of these periods, their biological periods, dates of origin of these periods, their duration etc.).duration etc.).


As the algorithm of the forecast scheme was based on As the algorithm of the forecast scheme was based on statistical methods with the account of helio-physical, statistical methods with the account of helio-physical, synoptic and hydrometeorological features, such synoptic and hydrometeorological features, such scheme of the forecast isscheme of the forecast is physical – sinoptical – physical – sinoptical – statistical.statistical.

On the basis of the above-stated it is possible to assert, On the basis of the above-stated it is possible to assert, that application of agricultural meteorology methods to that application of agricultural meteorology methods to mariculture is reasonable and progressive.mariculture is reasonable and progressive.


So, it follows the definition, thatSo, it follows the definition, that mariclimatologymariclimatology is a is a science which studies real-life relationship between science which studies real-life relationship between weather, atmospheric circulation and water weather, atmospheric circulation and water environment parametres during the previous period environment parametres during the previous period on the one hand, and the productivity of cultivated on the one hand, and the productivity of cultivated cultures formed under the influence of these cultures formed under the influence of these conditions, on the other hand, and the same as conditions, on the other hand, and the same as agricultural meteorology, it is based on the methods agricultural meteorology, it is based on the methods of mathematical statistics and a probability theory.of mathematical statistics and a probability theory.


Представляемая работа основана на исследованиях Представляемая работа основана на исследованиях межгодовой изменчивости температурного режима межгодовой изменчивости температурного режима прибрежных районов зал. Петра Великого по данным прибрежных районов зал. Петра Великого по данным инструментальных наблюдений на прибрежных инструментальных наблюдений на прибрежных гидрометеорологических станциях, изложенных в гидрометеорологических станциях, изложенных в работах: работах: Гайко Л.А. Особенности гидрометеорологического Гайко Л.А. Особенности гидрометеорологического режима прибрежной зоны залива Петра Великого режима прибрежной зоны залива Петра Великого (Японское море). Владивосток : Дальнаука, 2005. 151 с. (Японское море). Владивосток : Дальнаука, 2005. 151 с.


Гайко Л.А. Марикультура: Гайко Л.А. Марикультура: прогноз урожайности с прогноз урожайности с учетом воздействия учетом воздействия абиотических факторов. абиотических факторов. Владивосток : Дальнаука, Владивосток : Дальнаука, 2006. 204 с.2006. 204 с.

ConclusionsConclusions

On the basis of the above-stated it is possible to On the basis of the above-stated it is possible to recommend adding the program of training of recommend adding the program of training of experts in an aquaculture with the discipline experts in an aquaculture with the discipline studying influence of hydrometeorological and studying influence of hydrometeorological and geophysical factors of environment on mariculture geophysical factors of environment on mariculture objects and their long-term forecasts.objects and their long-term forecasts.


International ConferenceInternational Conference“50 Years of Education and Awareness Raising“50 Years of Education and Awareness Raising

for Shaping the Future of the Oceans and Coasts”for Shaping the Future of the Oceans and Coasts”Sharing lessons learned and proposing long-term projectionsSharing lessons learned and proposing long-term projections

TThankhank you you

for your attention!for your attention!


Documents

Topicality of teaching long-term forecast subject when training specialists in aquaculture Актуальность преподавания предмета «Долгосрочные