Timeline of the Arab-Israeli Conflict and Peace Process • 1917- Balfour Declaration: The British

Balfour Declaration promised to create a Jewish homeland in the region comprising the ancient Land of Israel

• By British Foreign Secretary-Lord Arthur Balfour, his letter to the British Head of Zionism “view favor the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people”

• 1920-1947 British Mandate Established by the League of Nations

• The emergence of Zionist (Zionism- Jewish nationalist movement to establish Jewish state-Land of Israel) state in Palestine which became unstoppable following the “Holocaust” committed by Nazi Germany against the Jews of Europe in the WWII/ support by international community as sympathy towards the Jews

• Competition over territory is the core of the conflict between Palestinians and Israeli Jews.

UN Partition Plan 1947- UNGA resolution 181-Partition plan was

opposed by Palestinians and neighboring Arab countries

• 1948-war of 1948:David Ben-Gurion, Israel’s first Prime Minister, proclaimed the independence of the new State of Israel on May 14, 1948. The following day, Arab armies from Egypt, Transjordan, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq attacked the new Jewish state.

• Armistice boundaries were established and remained until 1967.

• This was the first Arab-Israeli war,

Militarily-authoritarian Arab regimesArab states in the region: aim legitimize

their positions and regimes in post-colonial era

Israel was an opportunity to do that

• Israel’s main foreign policy focus: maintenance of its security

• Possessed the most lethal military forces in the Middle East

• Established intelligence service Mossad and Shabak-guardian of Zionist cause/watching Arab neighbors and being ready to take pre-emptive actions against them

• Egypt was the leading country to Israeli’s existence

Arab states foreign policy; Israel as challenge to their regimes

Oppose to Israel for any cost (priority of competition for regional leadership rather than defending the Palestine)

1948 war caused Palestinian refugee crisis created internal problems for neighboring countries

• 1967- The Six-Day War / The 1967 Arab-Israeli War

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• Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Iraq moved their armies to Israel’s borders. Egypt closed the international water way, the Straits of Tiran, to all Israeli shipping, an act of war according to international law. These actions were accompanied by publicly stated intentions by Arab leaders to destroy Israel. After weeks of fruitless diplomacy, Israel launched a preemptive strike against the Arab armies mobilized on its borders, and a six-day war ensued between Israel and Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Iraq.

Israeli encouragement by US support!!US underwrote Israeli war plans by

agreeing to the following: support of Israeli at the UN, backing Israeli in the event of Soviet intervention, military support.

Acting pre-emptively, Israeli had secured a comprehensive victory through element of surprise and technologically superior forces

As a result of the war, Israel captured the; West Bank and East Jerusalem from

Jordanthe Golan Heights from Syriathe Gaza Strip and the Sinai Peninsula

from Egypt Israel offered to return land it captured in

exchange for peace treaties and recognition of its right to exist.

Israeli gained strategic place in territories; in the Sinai peninsula, the West Bank, Gaza Strip and the Golan Heights.

Victory brought also complacency and the prestige of military

• Result of war and failure to return Palestinian lands within the Arab countries;

• Dissatisfaction of domestic publics which questioned the legitimacy of regimes

• Egypt: defeat prompted to reevaluate of the status of their military strength and tactics

• Lessons were learned!• New strategies and plans with Arab countries

to defeat Israel in order to respond domestic pressure and maintain power of their regimes

Israel’s devastation of Arab armies in 1967, Establishment of superiority of Israeli

militaryResult of the war forced Egyptian leaders

to question Egypt’s position in the region and internationally.

• The Events/international actions leaded 1973 war;

• Palestinian leadership by Yasser Arafat (Palestinian Liberation Organization-PLO) forced to move its command structure from Jordan to Lebanon

• Changing Jordan’s view towards Arab-Israeli war, Palestinian parties aimed to overthrow the Jordanian Monarchy and replace it with more radical front against Israel but it turned to the Jordanian Civil War

• The Events/international actions leaded 1973 war;

• Break-up the Arab solidarity, Jordan’s domestic considerations were driving factors of its foreign policy than pan-Arab loyalties

• PLO brought Lebanon into the conflict which created potential for Syria-Israel disagreement

• Death of President Nasser of Egypt- who negotiated successfully ceasefire with Israel

Egypt and Syria attacked Israel on Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the Jewish year.

Why did Egypt attacked Israel in 1973?Why did Israel not take actions to prevent the

attack from taking place?Did Egypt intend to impose defeat of Israel or

force Israel to the negotiating table for political reasons?

• 1973- The October War / Yom Kippur War / 1973 Arab-Israeli War

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• Why did Egypt decided to go war against Israel in 1973? Without Jordan and wider Arab Alliance? Was it more Egyptian to revenge their earlier defeat? Was it recapture lost territories or fighting on behalf of Palestinians?

• As being aware of rising threat Why did Israel choose to inaction rather than pre-emptive strike like 1967

• Egypt; desire to get revenge of 1967 defeat• Bad economy-lack of US investment• Desire to increase weakening popularity of

regime and strength by fighting against Israel• Possibility to involve in war against Israel if

Syria choose to launch pre-emptive strike• Egyptian leader Sadat statements in 1971

for his intention to go war although he seeks to negotiate with Israel via US national security advisor, Henry Kissinger (1973)

• Desire to regain lost territories (Golan Heights and Sinai) and difficulties to reach diplomatic outcome, left only military solution

• Israeli intelligence service gained information about war preparation in Egypt and Syria months before the war then Why did Israel choose to inaction

• Answer is overconfidence/arrogance/ incredibility of Arab revival

• Advise given by US- encourage Israel to remain unwilling to comprise on diplomatic solutions

• As a result of overconfidence of 1967 victory and superpower support Israeli foreign policy makers did not take the threats against them seriously in the early 1970s

• But also unwillingness to see the fact by Israel's; Egypt expel Soviet advisors which was perceived by Israel as no invasion which requires external professional advice, also Sadat’s deception and secrecy to deploy forces and 6 October was the Jewish religious holiday of Yom Kippur and also period of Ramadan

• Israeli belief that low possibility of attack in their own religious day

• Israeli analysts failure to understand opponents/ unwillingness to see threat rising from Arab states

• Red-team thinking-failure to understand ‘acting as an opponent would act’

• ‘Not desiring war’- leading policy makers being ‘unable to visualize war’

Final event- when Israeli annexed a large area of Sinai and US did not do anything to prevent it.

Egypt and Syria believed that Israel could forced to return the lost territories only by military forces and also force US to involve in the conflict for negotiating return of Sinai and Golan Heights.

6 October 1973Sadat’s limited strategic objective failed to

exploit Israel's weaknesses of fighting on two fronts.

Short Arab success-Israel’s counter attack- Israeli managed to push Egypt forces across the Suez Canal and then occupy West Bank.

So Arab-Israeli conflict is not only about Palestinians

Palestinians are used by Arab states and Israel for their own national interest in the region!!!

• Camp David Accords: The American-sponsored talks paved the way to the peace treaty signed in 1979.

• Why did Egypt under Sadat undertake a policy shift after the Yom Kippur war?

• No single reason explains why Egypt changed its policy toward Israel following the Yom Kippur war.

• First explanation cognitive explanations: as a person Sadat saw himself Egyptian rather than Arab which gave him flexibility to negotiate a settlement for the interest of Egypt

• Second explanation: class-based politics within Egypt

• Demands of Egypt’s expanding bourgeoisie/policy shift that maximized their class interest by realigning Egypt with US.

• Third explanation: involvement of external forces, US desire to end Arab-Israeli dispute in order to promote its economic interests in the region, US influence on the action of IMF pushed Egypt policy shift

Policy Shift as a result of three explanations;

Socio economic problems within the Egypt, re-alignment with US, and pursue ‘Egypt First’ policy at the expense of Arab Unity

Foreign policy shift as a result of domestic need to maintain the regime

• Sadat’s foreign policy was successful from two ways;

• First; allow him claim victory for regaining control of Sinai

• Second; it normalized trade with Israel and US, IMF grant loans to the government to improve socio-economic problems of Egypt's population

• Financial benefits as a result of military cuts, revenue improved employment, reduce socio-economic tension and increase regime security.

• 17 September 1978 , Camp David Accords signed, followed by Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty of March 1979

• This was called as ‘Cold Peace’ and this peace remained until the fall of H. Mubarak regime in 2011

• Involvement of Muslim Brotherhood, anti-Israeli slogans being a common feature of the demonstrations across the country

Deterioration of relations with Israel following the storming of the Israeli embassy in Cairo, on 9 September 2011.

• Localization of foreign policy:• Regional security system dominated in the

Middle East• Israel’s foreign policy-primacy to maintain

its national security (especially after the Holocaust)

• Foreign policy of Arab countries; union against the presence of Israel, conflict with Israel was one of the defending Arab nationalist pride in post-colonial age

• Through Zionism Arab nationalism had emerged as the major political force

Conclusion• The case study illustrates that foreign policy

decisions are not always dictated by logic of facts.

• Egypt's increasing military preparation and Israel remained uninterested in pre-emptive action

• Foreign policy should not match with sentiments of a country’s rhetoric/ policy shift in Egypt and established peace treaty with Israel

• Failure to find a resolution acceptable to all parties involved in Palestinian-Israeli /Arab-Israeli conflict.

• New developments/changes in the Middle East following the Arab Spring;

• New regime in Egypt• conflicting Ba’ath regime of Syria• Palestinian demand for the statehood in

UN General Assembly in 2011

Deterioration of Turkish-Israeli relation Turkey’s support for Palestinians and flotilla crisis

US support for democratization process in Arab states

Discoveries of hydrocarbons in the eastern Mediterranean/ energy insecurity/ possibility to trigger existing or new conflicts in the region

Latest development in the region since 2010 proves that insecurity in the Middle East remain as global security as it was during the Yom Kippur war.