The World SystemThe World System

Economic and Economic and Military Military

ConstraintsConstraints

I. The World SystemI. The World System

A.A. Composed of statesComposed of statesB.B. CharacteristicsCharacteristics

1.1. Number of units – More than 200Number of units – More than 200a.a. Increased UncertaintyIncreased Uncertaintyb.b. Increased War?Increased War?

2. Distribution of Power -- 2. Distribution of Power -- a.a. Major vs. Minor Powers – Few major, many Major vs. Minor Powers – Few major, many

minorminorb.b. Concentration of Power – Power projection Concentration of Power – Power projection

limited to US, handful of otherslimited to US, handful of others3. Political Organization3. Political Organization

a.a. Anarchy vs. Hierarchy -- Anarchy vs. Hierarchy --

GREAT POWERS

MIDDLE POWERS

SMALL POWERS

UNIPOLAR WORLD

GREAT POWERS

MIDDLE POWERS

SMALL POWERS

GREAT POWERS

MIDDLE POWERS

SMALL POWERS

BIPOLAR WORLD

MULTIPOLAR WORLD

b. Polarity and Leadershipb. Polarity and Leadership

5

3

255

WEAKLY POLARIZEDMULTIPOLAR

WORLD

STRONGLY POLARIZEDMULTIPOLAR

WORLD

559

3

5

3

255

559

3

c. Alliances and Polarizationc. Alliances and Polarization

III. How does the World System III. How does the World System affect States?affect States?

A. Power Transition Theory: A. Power Transition Theory: Assessing the Risk of Major WarAssessing the Risk of Major War

1.1. AssumptionsAssumptionsa. System Level: World is Hierarchica. System Level: World is Hierarchic

DOMINANT POWERDOMINANT POWER

MAJOR POWERSMAJOR POWERS

MIDDLE POWERSMIDDLE POWERS

SMALL POWERSSMALL POWERS

Region Level: Multiple hierarchies Region Level: Multiple hierarchies modelmodel

b. Dyad Level: Challenger vs. b. Dyad Level: Challenger vs. Dominant PowerDominant Power

Challenger

Dominant

t

Power

Unstable

Preemptive war by Dom

War by Challenger to

change SQ

c. State Level: What creates c. State Level: What creates transitions?transitions?

i.i. Existence of challenger: status quo Existence of challenger: status quo evaluationsevaluations

ii.ii. Rise of challenger: development curveRise of challenger: development curve

2. Measuring Power2. Measuring Power

a.a. GNP GNP Ultimately reduces to Ultimately reduces to population!population!

b.b. Relative Political Capacity – TaxesRelative Political Capacity – Taxes

3. Evidence3. Evidencea. Modern Systema. Modern System

1920-20001920-2000

Modern System: SummaryModern System: Summary

b. The Long, Long Run: Population b. The Long, Long Run: Population and Powerand Power

4. Predictions4. Predictionsa. Population: India Rises, EU Fallsa. Population: India Rises, EU Falls

b. Economics: China Overtakes US b. Economics: China Overtakes US in 20 to 50 yearsin 20 to 50 years

c. Effects of Population and c. Effects of Population and Productivity on Economic StrengthProductivity on Economic Strength

B. Hegemonic Stability Theory: B. Hegemonic Stability Theory: Assessing the Global EconomyAssessing the Global Economy

1.1. Assumptions: Primarily Economic Assumptions: Primarily Economic TheoryTheory

a.a. International Economic Cooperation International Economic Cooperation Prevents Depressions (Bonus: Also Prevents Depressions (Bonus: Also prevents world wars)prevents world wars)

c. Public Goods Elementsc. Public Goods Elementsi.i. World Economy as “Public Good:” World Economy as “Public Good:”

Cannot exclude countries from existing Cannot exclude countries from existing in a prosperous worldin a prosperous world

ii.ii. Problem: World economic stability Problem: World economic stability costs money (currency stability, free costs money (currency stability, free trade/lost jobs, military intervention, trade/lost jobs, military intervention, international law, etc.) – but no one international law, etc.) – but no one wants to pay since their contributions wants to pay since their contributions won’t make a difference!won’t make a difference!

iii.iii. Free Riding: Enjoying benefits of stable Free Riding: Enjoying benefits of stable world economy without paying costsworld economy without paying costs

d. Hegemony Definedd. Hegemony Defined

When a single state…When a single state…

i.i. CAN pay the costs of world economic CAN pay the costs of world economic stabilitystability

ii.ii. MUST pay those costs or stability won’t MUST pay those costs or stability won’t be providedbe provided

iii.iii. is WILLING to pay those costs because is WILLING to pay those costs because the benefits to the benefits to itselfitself outweigh the outweigh the costscosts

e. State-level change: “Law of e. State-level change: “Law of Uneven Growth”Uneven Growth”

2. Historical Applicability2. Historical Applicability

Theory doesn’t apply before 18Theory doesn’t apply before 18thth century, according to HST century, according to HST proponentsproponents• Why?Why?

a. Economic Growth is Recenta. Economic Growth is Recent

0–100

100200300400500600700800900

1,000%

11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16thCentury

17th 18th 19th 20th 21st

b. Increasing Importance of Tradeb. Increasing Importance of Trade

3. Evidence3. Evidence

a.a. Free TradeFree Tradei.i. Napoleonic Wars: Challenge to British Napoleonic Wars: Challenge to British

Hegemony (Continental System) – ConsistentHegemony (Continental System) – Consistent

ii.ii. 1815-1840: Increased Protectionism: Corn Laws, 1815-1840: Increased Protectionism: Corn Laws, etc – Inconsistentetc – Inconsistent

iii.iii. 1840s-1850s: Rise of free trade in Britain -- 1840s-1850s: Rise of free trade in Britain -- ConsistentConsistent

iv.iv. 1860s-1880s: Rise of free trade in Europe, i.e. 1860s-1880s: Rise of free trade in Europe, i.e. Cobden-Chevalier Treaty (1860) -- ConsistentCobden-Chevalier Treaty (1860) -- Consistent

v. Free Trade and US Hegemony: v. Free Trade and US Hegemony: US leads after WW IIUS leads after WW II

AVERAGE AVERAGEUS TARIFF WORLD

YEAR RATE TARIFF-------- --------- ----------1940 36% 40%1946 25% --1950 13% 25%1960 12% 17%1970 10% 13%1975 6% --1984 5% 5%

b. Economics and War: Mixed b. Economics and War: Mixed EvidenceEvidence

Europe's GNP growth rate, 1856-1913

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1856

1866

1876

1886

1896

1906

Five-year moving average

c. US Hegemonic Decline? The c. US Hegemonic Decline? The End of the Cold War and TradeEnd of the Cold War and Trade

III. A Clash of Civilizations?III. A Clash of Civilizations? “ “The fundamental source of conflict in this The fundamental source of conflict in this

new world will not be primarily ideological new world will not be primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great divisions or primarily economic. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural. Nation source of conflict will be cultural. Nation states will remain the most powerful actors states will remain the most powerful actors in world affairs, but the principal conflicts of in world affairs, but the principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations global politics will occur between nations and groups of different civilizations. The and groups of different civilizations. The clash of civilizations will dominate global clash of civilizations will dominate global politics. The fault lines between civilizations politics. The fault lines between civilizations will be the battle lines of the future.”will be the battle lines of the future.”

Samuel P. Huntington

A. AssumptionsA. Assumptions

1.1. Conflict over values Conflict over values not power or resources! not power or resources!

2.2. Key value divide changes over timeKey value divide changes over timea.a. Colonialism and Nationalism: West vs. the RestColonialism and Nationalism: West vs. the Rest

b.b. 2020thth Century Ideologies: Fascism vs. Democracy, Century Ideologies: Fascism vs. Democracy, Communism vs. CapitalismCommunism vs. Capitalism

c.c. Post Cold War: Cultural IdentitiesPost Cold War: Cultural Identities

3.3. Key actors = civilizations, not statesKey actors = civilizations, not states

4.4. Culture Clash Culture Clash Internal / External Conflict Internal / External Conflicta.a. Religion = Indivisible StakesReligion = Indivisible Stakes

b.b. Identity trumps other concernsIdentity trumps other concerns

5. The Map of Civilizations5. The Map of Civilizations

a. Religion determines some a. Religion determines some civilizational borderscivilizational borders

Major religion(CIA Factbook 2001)

Buddhist (11)Hindu (3)Jewish (1)Muslim (49)Orthodox (11)Other (9)Protestant (46)Roman catholic (56)

b. “Identity” determines the restb. “Identity” determines the rest West – Latin America divide: ethnicity?West – Latin America divide: ethnicity? Sinic civilization: Originally called Sinic civilization: Originally called

“Confucian.” What is the basis for this “Confucian.” What is the basis for this bloc?bloc?

African civilization: Essentially what was African civilization: Essentially what was left after drawing other civilizationsleft after drawing other civilizations

6. Alignments determine 6. Alignments determine civilizational conflictscivilizational conflicts

7. Universalism = Conflict7. Universalism = Conflicta.a. No “universal” political desiresNo “universal” political desires

b.b. Modernization Modernization ≠ Westernization≠ Westernization

B. Implication: Internal Unity = StrengthB. Implication: Internal Unity = Strength

1.1. Don’t be Don’t be multiculturalmulticultural

a.a. Enemies will Enemies will try to try to foment foment intra-intra-societal societal conflictconflict

b.b. Beware Beware immigration immigration from other from other civilizations civilizations

2. Test: Does Immigration Cause 2. Test: Does Immigration Cause Internal Violence?Internal Violence?

a. Europea. Europe

Does High Does High % % foreign-foreign-born born cause cause more more conflict?conflict?

b. Immigration by Region: Doesn’t b. Immigration by Region: Doesn’t Match “Hot Spots”Match “Hot Spots”

c. Areas of inter-civilizational migration: c. Areas of inter-civilizational migration: Which civilizations are “weakened?”Which civilizations are “weakened?”

C. Implication: Pushing Democracy C. Implication: Pushing Democracy and Capitalism = Civilizational Conflictand Capitalism = Civilizational Conflict

1.1. Democracy is Western value system: Democracy is Western value system: Separation of church and state, rule of law, social Separation of church and state, rule of law, social pluralism, representative bodies, individualismpluralism, representative bodies, individualism

2.2. Market capitalism is Western:Market capitalism is Western:Competition, property rightsCompetition, property rights

3. Test: Is Democracy “Western”?3. Test: Is Democracy “Western”?a. World Values Survey – Questions about democracy, human rights, politics, religion, etc.

Key Dimensions

Democratic Performance:

• Democracies are indecisive and have too much squabbling

• Democracies aren’t good at maintaining order

Democratic Ideals:

• Democracy may have its problems but it is better than any other form of government

• I approve of having a democratic political system

b. Results (Islam) – b. Results (Islam) – i. i. Democratic Performance/Ideals: No Difference!Democratic Performance/Ideals: No Difference!

Disa

ppro

val o

f dem

ocra

tic pe

rform

ance

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

5.1

4.4

5.2

4.9

4.5

5.05.05.1

4.54.5

Appr

oval

of de

mocr

atic i

deals

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

6.0

6.5

6.86.6

6.36.56.5

6.3

6.96.9

ii. Other surveys ii. Other surveys reveal…reveal…

Important Important differences do differences do exist exist withinwithin Islamic Islamic civilizationcivilization

c. Results (Asia)c. Results (Asia)i. “Asian Values” and Democracyi. “Asian Values” and Democracy

ii. “Asian Values” and Capitalismii. “Asian Values” and Capitalism

iii. Summary: Support for Free iii. Summary: Support for Free Market DemocracyMarket Democracy

D. Implication: “Fault Lines” = ConflictD. Implication: “Fault Lines” = Conflict(Fits Early 90s well, Not Before/After)(Fits Early 90s well, Not Before/After)

1. Counter-examples: Civilizational 1. Counter-examples: Civilizational Unity?Unity?

Many Wars Within Civilizations:Many Wars Within Civilizations:• Orthodox Christians (Georgia), Latin Orthodox Christians (Georgia), Latin

Americans (Ecuador-Peru), Muslims Americans (Ecuador-Peru), Muslims (Iran, Iraqi Kurds, Iran-Iraq, Syria, (Iran, Iraqi Kurds, Iran-Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, etc), Buddhists Pakistan, Afghanistan, etc), Buddhists (Burma), Hindus (Nepal, JVP in Sri (Burma), Hindus (Nepal, JVP in Sri Lanka), Africans (Rwanda, DRC) etc.Lanka), Africans (Rwanda, DRC) etc.

Which difference matters most?Which difference matters most?

2. “Islam Has Bloody Borders”2. “Islam Has Bloody Borders”

3. Internal Military Disputes: Is Islam 3. Internal Military Disputes: Is Islam Prone to Intra-Civilization Violence?Prone to Intra-Civilization Violence?

Table reveals:

• West = more internal peace

• Sinic = less internal peace

• Buddhist = less internal peace

• Others, including Islam, unrelated to rate of intra-civilization disputes

4. Demographics of Islam4. Demographics of Islam• What percentage of Arabs are Muslim? What percentage of Arabs are Muslim?

• About 90%About 90%• What percentage of Muslims are Arab?What percentage of Muslims are Arab?

• About 20%About 20%• The largest Muslim country is…The largest Muslim country is…

• IndonesiaIndonesia• Where do Muslims live?Where do Muslims live?

• Only 33% live in the Middle EastOnly 33% live in the Middle East• 25% in South Asia, 20% in Africa25% in South Asia, 20% in Africa

5. Which civilizations fight the most?5. Which civilizations fight the most?Islamic civilization has plenty of conflicts….

…but other civilizations have more “civilizational” conflicts!

6. Tests: Statistical evidence on 6. Tests: Statistical evidence on “Fault Lines”“Fault Lines”

a. Little evidence of cultural wars a. Little evidence of cultural wars 1819-19891819-1989

b. Post-1989:b. Post-1989:i. States of different civilizations LESS i. States of different civilizations LESS

likely to fight than states of same likely to fight than states of same civilizationscivilizations

Controls for contiguity, power, democracyControls for contiguity, power, democracy

ii. Ethnic diversity ii. Ethnic diversity ≠ civil war≠ civil war Controls for economic growth Controls for economic growth

iii. Islam has not precluded democracy iii. Islam has not precluded democracy (rights)(rights)

c. Did end of Cold War increase c. Did end of Cold War increase conflict?conflict?

i. No -- Large i. No -- Large DecreaseDecrease in conflicts in conflicts

ii. No change in ratio of civilizational ii. No change in ratio of civilizational to non-civilizational conflictsto non-civilizational conflicts

iii. No change in ratio of civilizational iii. No change in ratio of civilizational to non-civilizational state failures to non-civilizational state failures

d. Are inter-civilizational conflicts worse?

E. Implication: Power Shift E. Implication: Power Shift a.a. West will decline: Demographics and West will decline: Demographics and

Development (recall Power Transition Development (recall Power Transition predictions)predictions)

b.b. Beware an Islamic-Sinic allianceBeware an Islamic-Sinic alliance

F. Do people in different civilizations F. Do people in different civilizations have important value differences?have important value differences?

Important: Value differences mean democracy may produce

foreign policy differences!

1. West vs. Islam: Gender/Sexuality = 1. West vs. Islam: Gender/Sexuality = Division, Not Religious Leadership!Division, Not Religious Leadership!

2. Gender: 2. Gender: West vs. West vs. the Restthe Rest

3. Categorizing major values 3. Categorizing major values a. a. Tradition vs. SecularismTradition vs. Secularism and and

Survival vs. Self-ExpressionSurvival vs. Self-Expression

b. Regional value differences existb. Regional value differences exist

c. …But Country Trumps Religion!c. …But Country Trumps Religion!

d. Simplest explanation: Income!d. Simplest explanation: Income!

IV. Treaties and Trade: Ties That IV. Treaties and Trade: Ties That Bind?Bind?

A.A. Alliances: Limited Alliances: Limited InfluenceInfluence

• Allies much more Allies much more likely to intervene, likely to intervene, but probability but probability still low (1 in 4 still low (1 in 4 chance)chance)

War War occurs…occurs… AlliedAllied Not Not

AlliedAllied

Intervene, Intervene, YESYES 25%25% 2%2%

Intervene, Intervene, NONO 75%75% 98%98%

B. Trade Blocs: Constraints or Tools?B. Trade Blocs: Constraints or Tools?

US FTAs: Trade Policy or Security Policy?US FTAs: Trade Policy or Security Policy?

YearYear CountryCountry % US % US ExportsExports

% US % US ImportsImports

19851985 IsraelIsrael 11 11

19891989 CanadaCanada 2323 1818

19941994 Mexico (NAFTA)Mexico (NAFTA) + 14+ 14 + 12+ 12

20012001 JordanJordan trivialtrivial trivialtrivial

20032003 ChileChile < 1< 1 < 1< 1

20032003 SingaporeSingapore 22 11

20042004 MoroccoMorocco trivialtrivial trivialtrivial

20052005 AustraliaAustralia 22 11

2006?2006? BahrainBahrain trivialtrivial trivialtrivial

2006?2006? Central America (DR-CAFTA)Central America (DR-CAFTA) 22 11