PUTTING TRANSPORT INTO

CLIMATE POLICY AGENDA

World Conference on Transport Research Society (WCTRS)

http://www.wctrs.org/

November 2013

URGENT!

There is an urgent need to involve transport as a major sector in the climate change negotiation. The WCTRS

could help the UNFCCC and the IPCC to promote this process.

WCTRS (World Conference on Transport Research Society)

The WCTRS covers multi-modal, multi-disciplinary, and multi-sectoral fields. The

members span almost all aspects of transportation research, planning, policy and

management. The World Conferences held every 3 years mirror this breadth of

interests. 75 countries are represented in the WCTRS, with more than 1,500

members.

President: Yoshitsugu Hayashi (Nagoya University, Japan)

WCTRS SIG11 (Special Interest Group11) - Transport and the Environment

The SIG11 aims at seeking ways to establish effective mechanisms for mitigating environmental

degradation due to transport in the international domain. The following topics are researched:

a) Comparing the emission of greenhouse gas and air pollution between countries and cities,

b) Diagnosing transport system and its resulting global and local environmental degradation and

prescribing countermeasure policies, and developing an evaluation system of their performance,

c) Providing scientific applicable instruments for evaluation of international mechanism for

environmentally sustainable transport and the methods to collect the necessary financial resources.

Contact:

Hayashi and Kato Laboratory, International Center for Sustainable

Transport and Cities (SUSTRAC), Graduate School of

Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Japan

Address: 464-8603, C1-2, Nagoya, Japan

TEL: +81-52-789-2773

E-mail: tracc@genv.nagoya-u.ac.jp

Website: http://www.sustrac.env.nagoya-u.ac.jp/en/

Global Environment Research Fund (S-6-5), Ministry of Environment,

Japan

Graduate School of Environmental Studies & Global COE Program “From

Earth Science to Basic and Clinical Environmental Studies”,

Nagoya University, Japan

Sponsored by:

- Recommendations from WCTRS to COP19 -

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Kazuki Nakamura, Kei Ito, Aoto Mimuro,

Nagoya University, Japan

Editors:

CUTE

Matrix

Strategies

Avoid Shift ImproveReduce transport

demand

Reduce emission

per unit transported

Reduce emissions

per kilometer

Instr

um

en

ts

TechnologicalTransit Oriented

Development (TOD)

Integrated Public

Transport System

Highly Competitive

Mass Transit System

Intermodal Freight

Transport

Low Emission Vehicle

(LEV)

Alternative Energy

Advanced Infrastructure

Technology

Logistic Efficiency

RegulatoryCompact City

Mixed Land Use

Bus/Tram Priorities

Parking Regulation

Traffic Access Control

Emission Standard

Top-Runner Program

Informational

Tele-Work

Smart Choice on

Workplace and School

Awareness Campaign for

Public Transport Use

Eco-Drive

Intelligent

Transportation System

Labeling of Vehicle

Performance

Economic

Fuel Tax

Road Pricing

Relocation Subsidy

Car Registration Tax

Fuel Tax

Road Pricing

LEV Preferential Tax

Fuel Tax

Can Developing Countries Take a Leap-Frog Pathway?

Upgrading Transport to a Key Sector

The Vicious Circle in Urban Transport

1 2

● The mechanism of CO2 emissions from transport can be decomposed into various elements of land-use

transport systems and technologies. While economic growth is likely to change these elements in a way

that causes more emissions, mitigation options need to be introduced to control the change in each element

and hence to achieve a low-carbon transport system.

● In the pioneering work of the WCTRS project “Comparative study on Urban Transport and the

Environment (CUTE)”, a matrix of mitigation options was developed (the CUTE Matrix). The strategies for

low-carbon transport have 3 components: AVOID (reduce unnecessary transport demand), SHIFT (reduce

emissions per unit transported), IMPROVE (reduce emissions per kilometer). Each strategy should involve

measures that include technological, regulatory, informational and economic instruments - as seen in the

matrix below.

Mitigation Options: the CUTE Matrix

Reference : WCTRS and Institute for Transport Policy Studies (2004) Urban Transport and the Environment: An International Perspective. Elsevier Ltd.

● According to IEA’s forecasts,

China, India and other Asian

developing countries are expected to

have significant growth in car

ownership, an 18-fold increase from

2010 to 2050.

● The transport sector accounts for

22% of global energy-related CO2

emissions (IEA,2012), amounting to

6.8 Gt-CO2, and it is the fastest

growing sector for carbon emissions.

Given the expected dramatic growth

in car ownership in developing

countries, the influence of the

transport sector on climate change

must not be neglected.

● To avoid the pathway of energy-

consuming development, which may lead

to catastrophe, a “Sharp Reduction”

strategy should be implemented in

developed countries, and a “Leap-Frog”

strategy should be adopted in developing

countries.

Per

Ca

pit

a G

HG

Em

issi

on

Low Carbon Society Backcasting

Developing Countries

Leap-frog

Developed Countries

Trip Frequency

Built-up Area Public Transport Development

Fuel Economy

Traffic Congestion

Road Development

Urban Compactness

× ×

Travel Demand Car Dependency Technology(Travel Distance)

GDP GDP

(CO2 Emission Factor)

GDP

(Modal Choice)

＝

CO2 emission

GDP

AVOID SHIFT IMPROVEMitigation

Car Ownership

LEV Share

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Africa

Latin America

Middle East

Other Asia

India

China

Eastan Europe

Russia

OECD ASIA

Australia and NZ

OECD Europe

Anglo America

1

Car Ownership Trend

Bill

ion

Veh

icle

s

Transport 22%

Other Sectors 78%

Transport

Other Sectors ?%

18

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0 20 40 60

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

Targeting CO2 Mitigation

Necessary Policy Implementation for Leap-Frog

Implementation of Extensive Measures is Needed

Do Nothing

Mitigation Scenario

● In order to achieve CO2 mitigation goal by 45%

from 2005 to 2050, it is requested to reduce by 20%

in urban transport and by 62% in interregional

transport by combining the below low-carbon

transport strategies.

● In urban transport, even though assuming all fuel

passenger cars become low emission vehicle

(IMPROVE), trunk public transport should be

developed for 4,569km urban railways and

23,000km Bus Rapid Transit in megacities (960km

per city on average) (SHIFT & AVOID).

● In interregional transport, even though assuming

fuel-efficiency of truck, railway and ship is improved

by 70% from current efficiency (IMPROVE),

dedicated freight-rail networks need to be

developed for 8,526km (SHIFT & AVOID).

CO2 Emissions from Transport

in Greater Mekong Subregion

Developing Countries Have Large Potential of CO2 Mitigation

● The IPCC reported that global CO2

emissions need to be reduced by half from

1990 to 2050 in order to avoid more than

2℃ temperatures increase from climate

change. According to the report, developed

countries set long-term CO2 mitigation

targets to meet the necessary global

mitigation.

● In Asian developing countries, the

governments have set CO2 mitigation

targets over a medium term. However, as

their economies grow in a longer term, they

have more potential of CO2 mitigation,

comparing emission levels between

developing and developed countries.

2020

2005

2010 2020

EU India

China Target

2020

CO2 Mitigation Targets set by the Governments

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns p

er

GD

P

[Kg

-CO

2 / $

]

GDP per capita [1000 $ / population]

2050

2005

Mt-

CO

2 / y

ear

-45%

-40%

-25% (-80% in total)

Development of Dedicated Freight-Rail Corridor

Mass, High Frequency and Fast Freight Transport can be Low Carbon

●China opened a dedicated freight-rail corridor in

2004 which increased freight-rail capacity by doubling

container-stack size and train length. It saved 33%

energy consumption, and 25-40% freight-cost,

compared to single container-stack size with short

train length.

● India plans to develop a dedicated freight-rail

corridor between megacities until 2017. The plan

includes not only doubled container-stack size, but

also high speed (over 120km/h) and high frequency

(over 70 trains/ day).

Metro 8%

Bus 15%

Taxi 5%

Company bus 4%

Car 15%

Motorcycle 6%

Powered bike 19%

Bike 16%

Walking 12%

Modal Share in Shanghai

Policy Shift to Green Transport Development

● In Bangkok, road oriented development

had caused heavy congestion in 1990s. To

tackle this problem, the first urban rail transit

was open in 1999, which has been further

developed to 80km in 2010. By generating

3% rail use in modal share, the development

has made people realize the importance of

rail, which has led to a proposal to invest

80% of the national transport budget in rail

improvement, including 464km urban rail

transit systems in 2020.

Early Implementation of Low Carbon Transport Policy is Important

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Road Rail

● Shanghai city has started Metro

development in the early 1990s, and had

accelerated the development to 450km to

prepare for the world EXPO in 2010. The

development realized 8% Metro use in model

share. On the other hand, high density and

polycentric urban development has also

promoted short-distance travel, which is

reflected by more than 50% modal share by

motorcycle, electric bike, bike, and walking.

To meet their large demand, bike-dedicated

lanes are developed on arterial roads.

3 4

Share of Transport Investment in Bangkok

Case of Greater Mekong Subregion

Opened in 2004

Mass Freight Railway Network in China Mass, High Frequency and Fast

Freight Railway Network in India

To be Open in 2017

Energy supply

37%

Buildings 14%

Waste 13%

Industry 11%

Foresty 4%

Agriculture 2%

6

Proposers

Improvement of International Frameworks

Country C--€

Country B--￥

Country A--＄

Transport Projects

x%x%

x%

• David Banister, University of Oxford, UK

• Yves Crozet, University of Lyon II, France

• Atsushi Fukuda, Hisayoshi Morisugi Nihon University,

Japan

• Karst Geurs, University of Twente, Netherlands

• Shinya Hanaoka, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan

• Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Hirokazu Kato, Kazuki Nakamura,

Nagoya University, Japan

• Cornie Huizenga , Partnership for Sustainable, Low Carbon

Transport, China

• Ali Huzayyin, Cairo University, Egypt

• Reiner Koblo, KfW Development Bank, Germany

• Jamie Leather, Asian Development Bank (ADB)

• Anthony May, University of Leeds, UK

• Fumihiko Nakamura, Yokohama National University, Japan

• Takaaki Okuda, Nanzan University, Japan

• Tae Oum, University of British Columbia, Canada

• Haixiao Pan, Tongji University, China

• Marco Ponti, Milan Polytechnic University, Italy

• Werner Rothengatter, Patrick Jochem, Karlsruhe Institute

of Technology, Germany

• Wiroj Rujopakarn, Kasetsart University, Thailand

• Wolfgang Schade, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and

Innovation Research, Germany

• Sanjivi Sundar, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI),

India

• Louis S. Thompson, Thompson, Galeson and Associates,

USA

• Michael Wegener, Spiekermann & Wegener Urban and

Regional Research, Germany

• The late Lee Schipper

Financial Support for Low-Carbon Transport Projects

Special interest group 11 of WCTRS has been developing an systematic method to draw up the

road map by appropriately combining Avoid, Shift and Improve strategies to step by step reduce

CO2 emissions to reach the set up goal. This will help very much the process to measure and

report for verification of projects.

As transport projects can generate many co-benefits, each developing country needs to flexibly

assess low-carbon transport systems. These may include mobility improvement, efficient supply

chain, mitigation of air pollution, and energy saving, through calming traffic congestion from

better/sustained enforcement of traffic management.

Besides the financial support helps initial investments for transport development, self-sustaining

finance systems should assist the development. Value capture is one of the most promising

methods to take advantage of economic growth promoted by transport development in

developing countries, in combination with taxation and subsidization.

Keys to Promote Transport Projects in NAMAs

c) Self-Financing Mechanisms:

b) Assessment for Co-benefits:

a) Development of MRV(Measurement/Report/Verification) for Transport Projects:

Source: NAMA database

Transport 19%

More Transport projects are promoted in NAMAs

than CDM. Developing countries show their

interests in transport development in NAMAs mainly

through public transport improvement (SHIFT) and

technological advancement (IMPROVE). In addition,

to enhance the effectiveness of the transport

projects, they should promote the integration of

public transport improvement with land-use

planning (AVOID) in the long term rather than only

the short term.

More Attention to Transport in NAMAs than CDM Sectoral Distribution of NAMAs

More Bottom-up Approach is Suitable for Transport Projects

UNFCCC

Developing Countries

CDM: Clean Development Mechanism

NAMAs: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions

Strict

Verification of

CO2 Mitigation

Requirement

Proposal

Flexible Consideration of CO2

Mitigation;

a) CO2 Mitigation from

Demand Change

b) Co Benefits

Transport

Project

Transport

Project

b) Bilateral Mechanism :

Bilateral mechanism is a more de-centralized international

approach based on inter-governmental negotiations. It can provide

a flexible framework to facilitate low-carbon transport projects,

because assessments for transport projects are conducted by the

mutual agreement. The scope of the transport project can be

expanded by the bilateral mechanism.

The Official Development Assistance (ODA) program, an inter-

governmental grant from developed countries to developing

countries, is the largest financing resource for carbon reduction in

developing countries. However, ODA projects are based on

proposals from the recipient developing countries, and the majority

of transport proposals focus on the improvement of roads.

WCTRS proposes instead the concept of a ‘Green ODA’, which

requires proof that the requested project is the best in reducing

CO2.

Transport projects are more likely to need large financial

investments for infrastructure development. This is enabled by

cooperative financial contribution among many developed

countries and institutions.

A CDM Program Compensation Fund should be introduced to

allow a fluctuation by a given percentage in emission rights from

individual CDM projects, while still achieving targeted reductions

for the CDM program as a whole. As another form of the

cooperative fund, the newly-introduced Green Climate Fund (GCF)

can also support demand of developing countries for mitigation

and adaptation projects in NAMAs. The GCF receive financial

contribution from developed country parties and a variety of other

public and private sources.

a) Cooperative Fund:

5