The Water, Food & Energy Nexus: Results of a Mekong Investigation

The Water, Food & Energy Nexus: Results of a Mekong investigation

CSIRO ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES / CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP

Alex Smajgl, Sokhem Pech and John Ward Hanoi, November 2012

CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures

Wider Mekong region is becoming highly connected

Adaptation

Capacity to adapt Livelihood factorsHousehold characteristicsAssets, entitlementsSocial institutionsvulnerability

Willingness to adapt Well beingPotential gains Avoiding losses

Policy initiatives•Communication•Trust•Equity and fairness

well being and livelihoods

povertyvulnerability

BeliefsValues

Exploring Mekong Futures

CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 6

Food Security ?

Water security ?

Energy security ?

A nexus version specific to the Wider Mekong Region.


Greater Mekong Subregion energy security - eight dimensions

I Metabolism

II Governance

III Availability

IV Access

V Affordability

VI Technological Development & Long Term Sustainability

VII Resilience

VIII Environmental Sustainability

Cambodia, Laos, MyanmarThailand, Vietnam, Yunnan,

280-317 million people

Session 1: The predicted effects of impending decisions on Water Food and Energy security

Session 2: The nexus and poverty levels


National pending investments with regional consequences

1. Mekong River mainstream dams

2. Large-scale water diversion (into NE Thailand)

3. Sea level rise

4. More rubber plantations

5. Kunming-Phnom Penh railway

6. Bauxite mining in the Bolaven Plateau


Nexus Synthesis1. Food security decrease

– Less fish? More irrigation potential but more energy crops and rubber– Food prices increase with bigger pressure on the poor

2. Water access will see big change? Flood risks shift from natural to operational risks– Peaks and timing change will erode many livelihoods? Substantial shift between six countries (possible conflict)

3. Energy+ Increasing demand could be satisfied– Higher energy prices

4. Livelihoods and Migration? Shift from subsistence to paid labour? More migration


Nexus effects – Water 1. Flood Risks change from natural to operational (3-6 meters of

daily flow fluctuations 40-50km downstream reservoirs)2. Up to 70% increase in dry season flow in Northern Laos and

Thailand, but only 10% in Delta. 3. Sediment loads drop from 90Mt to 20Mt/year causing erosion

of riverbanks and the Delta4. Irrigation projects & sea-level rise exacerbate water shortage

during droughts in Delta.5. Shorter flood transitions (2-4 weeks)6. Up to 150,000 ha of garden and agricultural land inundated7. Less wetlands: i.e. Thailand -18% & Laos -34%8. Water quality decline: More applied nutrients (85% N & 100%

P) & herbicide (75%) & pesticide/fungicide (59%)


Nexus effects – Food 1. Sharp reduction in fisheries2. Dependence upon imported food and markets will increase3. Food prices increase4. Biodiversity will decline because of increased mono-crops 5. Salinity may be an increasing problem for domestic supply in

coastal areas and regions of large-scale intensive irrigation6. Slower rate of income increase reduces affordability 7. Increasing risks to ecosystems reducing resilience of food

production in Mekong countries8. Mekong Delta my lose a rice crop (April) after dry years (and

exacerbated drought)


Nexus effects – Energy

1. Increased power generation capacity

2. Increase in national and regional GDP

3. Higher energy and materials prices

4. Hydropower makes nuclear energy less urgent

5. Hydropower can reduce greenhouse gas emissions

6. Possible increase in bio-mass for power generation



CSIRO Exploring Mekong Futures:

Cumulative evaluation: sustaining the nexus balance

• Fish stocks require new governance solutions independent of mainstream dams.

• Land use change, tenure and irrigation managed as an instrument to alleviate poverty = sustainable development .

• Risks managed with particular attention to monoculture dependencies.

• Migration dynamics are a critical factor influencing political stability.

• Labour shifts from the primary to secondary sector as part of an underpinning urbanisation trend.

• It will be critical to effectively manage energy demand (as opposed to the singular management of power supply).


Mekong region is highly connected

Hua Sai Baht, Isaan, Thailand


Large irrigation schemes in Isaan• Irrigation has

• large impacts on average income• Low impacts on poverty

New manufacturing industries• Industry employment has

• Low impacts on average income• Large impacts on poverty

Irrigation is unlikely to reduce poverty

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Irrigation infrastructureIndustry employment

Average household income - Mahasarakham

Nam Ngum, Lao PDR


New irrigation schemes in the Nam Ngum catchment • increases average income in most provinces by 20-30%, only

in Louang Phrabang and Xiang Khoang much less (3%)• does not reduce poverty rate mostly (<1%)

Industry employment • has lower effects on income (~4%);

only in Xaysomboun high effects (~14%)• Has large effects on poverty (-3-4 %points);

effective in Xaysomboun (10% points)


Xishuanbanna, Yunnan, China


Yunnan government makes payments for “green” rubber• increases area under rubber (green or not green by 15%)• Does not reduce rubber production substantially (-0.4%)• Nearly no impact on poverty

Payments for green rubber could extend rubber

Xishuangbanna: Government payment to replace rubber has limited potential


-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%

Government PaymentsRegulation

Area under Rubber %

Green rubber

Monoculture rubber

Xishuangbanna: Regulation comes at a cost


-34%

-29%

-24%

-19%

-14%

-9%

-4%

1%

Government Payments

Tourism employment

Regulation

Average household income

Tonle Sap, Cambodia


• Improving trade access • low impact on household income

(except Kampong Thom 10%)• no impact on poverty

(except Kampong Thom: 13% to 9%)

• Industry employment • unlikely to increase income (<3%) • could reduce poverty in a few areas

(only in Battembang & Pursat)

Fish: highly vulnerable, industry no panacea

Mekong Delta, Vietnam


• Sealevel rise, salinity, profits drop 50% or more• Very low adaptive capacity

(less floods, less nutrients, less profits)• Adaptation strategies would replace

less than 5% of possible income loss• Very high risk of increasing poverty if not actively managed

• Industry employment • doesn’t find much uptake• unlikely to reduce poverty

High vulnerability demands active management

Synthesis

• No generalisations possible as Mekong region very diverse

• Irrigation no silver bullet for poverty alleviation

• Industry employment could be effective in some areas but not all

• Some areas highly vulnerable due to behavioural impediments

• Large potential for unintended side effects


Dr Alex Smajgl

[email protected]

Dr John Ward

[email protected]

CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP

Thank you

Hua Sai Baht, Isaan, Thailand


Large irrigation schemes in Isaan• Irrigation has

• large impacts on average income• Low impacts on poverty

New manufacturing industries• Industry employment has

• Low impacts on average income• Large impacts on poverty


Nexus effects – Livelihoods

1. Reduced income from fish in all LMB countries

2. Increased migration from Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia into

Thailand

3. More employment in commercial farming, while decrease in both

small and subsistence farming households

4. Less income from riverside gardens

5. Maybe higher income from rice (potential productivity increase)

6. Increase wage employment in NE Thailand


Main dissatisfaction with factors of wellbeing

28 |

Income

Personal/family health

Family relations

Roads and Public transport

Work availability and security

Water quality

Domestic water supply

0 20 40 60

•Income•Family health•Family relations•Roads•Work security and water quality

Similar to all case studies except Nam Ngum

Roads and Public transport

Domestic water supply

Electricity

Work availability and security

Family relations

Food availability and security

Health services

0 10 20 30 40 50 60


What households expect to happen over the next 10 years

climate changing, more water but more polluted, resources decline, new technology


0= this will not occur 6= this will occur for sure

Weather becomes more variable

Water will become more polluted

More water available all year round to grow crops

Soil fertility declines

Farm technology takes over and less traditional farm systems

Fish, aquatic animals and plants decline

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

What will impact households wellbeing most over the next 10 years?

New technology, new markets, continue with rice, resources decline and climate changing

0= this will have no affect 6= this will affect us for sure

Likely to occur•climate changing•more water •more polluted• resources decline•new technology


Farm technology takes over and less traditional farm systems

Access to traders and markets becomes much easier

You will continue to grow rice because of food security

Fish, aquatic animals and plants decline

Weather becomes more variable

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

31 |

Five main human values guide people’s lives and underpin behaviourCombinations or clusters of values influence decisions to adapt or not adapt:

Biocentric

Altruistic

EgocentricConservative

Open to Change

-2.00

-1.60

-1.20

-0.80

-0.40

0.00

0.40

0.80

1.20

env aware

Open to change

social concern resistant to change

Social concern open to change

Family priority

Interest in others welfare

Importance of nature

Family, traditionrespect for elders

Open to change


Self interest

32 |

Diversity of value clusters across the Mekong Region

Value typology of case studies


Tonle Sap

Nam Ngum

Hua Sai Bart

Vietnam Delta

Xishuangbanna

Environmental concern10.5% 19.6% 26.4% 28.9% 5.7%

Open to change 34.2% 7.6% 4.0% 6.8% 2.6%

Social concern and resistant 7.5% 36.5% 27.7% 13.5% 22.7%

Social concern and adaptive 46.5% 31.8% 34.3% 17.4% 62.5%

Family priority 1.4% 4.4% 7.6% 33.4% 6.5%

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Profit down by 50% for 5 years

Tonle Sap Nam Ngum Hua Sai Bart Vietnam Delta

Yunnan

Environmental concern high

Farm size large

Education (<primary) <primary

Profits occur (low) low

Social concern x high

Value typology x x

Migration/pop change Low high

Family priority

Future resource decline Low high low

Gender male male

Age <30

Open to change high


34 | Exploring Mekong Futures

Increased employment and out migration Tonle Sap Nam Ngum Hua Sai Bart Vietnam

Delta Yunnan

Roads and infrastructure high

Farm size <19000m2 Small med

Farm/off farm income low

Profits occur Income low high

Social concern high low

Value typologyOpen to change, family

Self interest

Migration/pop change high

Home ownership yes

Gender male

Age <35

Peaceful world high

Govt rural policy low

Key conclusions1. Intended adaptation strategies are country specific and

depend on the characteristics of change: e.g. economic crisis or industry employment and migration

1. Different sets of values, expectations and motivations explain intended adaptation responses (65-70% correct)

1. Simpler explanatory sets can be identified and measured but a single regional solution does not exist

1. Better to know these before policy implementation and to update through time

1. Policies can be designed and tailored to account for the factors of change, vulnerable segments of the community and communities who adapt


36 |

Understanding adaptation Profit reduced by 50%: same and stay


Unity with nature

Individual wealth

Growing rice A peaceful world

Decreasing importance in decision making

No = adaptYes = not adapt

Results Integration – Complex systems modelling

Markets (trans-boundary water,

commodities, labour)

Households (livelihoods, location,

income)

Landscape (land cover, soil, slopes)

Climate (rain, sea-level rise)

Flora (rice, food crops,

energy crops, rubber, trees, )

Government (i.e. approval for dams, mining,

plantations, railway)

Fauna (i.e. fish)


Expert panel: a method for structuring a group communication process to deal with a complex problem

• 1st step: sectoral assessment of each decision• 2nd step: sectoral assessment of cumulative impacts• 3rd step: workshop to identify cross sectoral assessment of

each decision and cumulative impacts• Book in final stage of editing



Understanding adaptation in response to changes in livelihoods requires a comprehensive set of explanatory variables:

• Livelihood determinants

• Factors of wellbeing and dissatisfaction

• Values that guide people’s lives

• Demographics, social institutions and economic data

42 |

Documents

The Water, Food & Energy Nexus: Results of a Mekong Investigation