The Water-Food-Energy Nexus in the Mekong Region · 2015-05-26 · Alternative investment: Modern rice crops . CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 24 Rice production response

The Water-Food-Energy Nexus in the Mekong Region

Alex Smajgl, John Ward, John Dore and Silva Larson 23 September 2013

CSIRO ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES/CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP

CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 2

Mekong region

• Yunnan (ICRAF) Rubber-Reforestation-Biodiversity

• Lao PDR (IWMI/MoNRE) Irrigation in Nam Ngum catchment & Vientiane plain

• Thailand (SEI/KKU/RBO) Irrigation for north-eastern Provinces & climate change

• Cambodia (Aalto/TSA/SNEC) Impacts of mainstream dams on Tonle Sap

• Vietnam (Can Tho Uni/Prov) Mekong Delta adaptation to sea-level rise

Exploring Mekong Region Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 3

http://www.csiro.au/science/MekongFutures

Nexus Synthesis 1. Food security decrease

– Less fish ? More irrigation potential but more energy crops and rubber – Food prices increase with bigger pressure on the poor

2. Water access will see big change ? Flood risks shift from natural to operational risks – Peaks and timing change will erode many livelihoods ? Substantial shift between six countries (possible conflict)

3. Energy + Increasing demand could be satisfied – Higher energy prices

4. Livelihoods and Migration ? Shift from subsistence to paid labour ? More migration

CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures

Complex world


gyyd opo ede e op e t g at o o ao y

Nexus System Criticalities

• Transboundary fish stock management • Instruments to manage risks from monocultures

• Strategies to avoid migration peaks due to change in access to natural resources

• Strategies for labour transition from primary to secondary sectors in the context of urban growth

• Explicit management of energy demand instead of sole focus on energy supply




Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL)

Climate & Policy Adaptation | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 18



Lao – Belief 1: IF Large scale irrigation schemes THEN Poverty decreases

Climate, Energy & Poverty | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 19

High income effects of irrigation (20-30% ) except Louangphrabang and Xiangkhoang


Irrigation has only marginal effects on poverty


-2.00

-1.80

-1.60

-1.40

-1.20

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Xaisomboun

Vientiane[prefecture]Louangphrabang

Bolikhamxai

Vientiane

Xiangkhoang

%

Thank you CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences Alex Smajgl Senior Research Scientist t +61 419 793439 e [email protected] w www.csiro.au/ MekongFutures.html

CSIRO ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES/CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP

Funded by the AusAID CSIRO R4D Alliance

Vietnam – Belief 2: IF Soft policies are implemented THEN livelihoods improve


Alternative investment: Modern rice crops


Rice production response and technological measures to adapt to salinity intrusion in the coastal Mekong delta Dang Kieu Nhan1, Vu Anh Phap2, Tran Huu Phuc2 & Nguyen Hieu Trung3 1 Agricultural Systems Department, Mekong Delta Development Research Institute, Can Tho University (CTU) 2 Crop Resources Management Department, Mekong Delta Development Research Institute, CTU 3 College of Environment and Natural Resources Management, CTU

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Salinity (‰)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Yie

lds

(tons

ha

-1) Tolerant

Less tolerant Sensitive

Tolerant: Y = 5.1 - 0.2X - 0.02X2

Less tolerant: Y = 5.3 - 0.9X + 0.05X2

Sensitive: Y = 5.0 - 1.4X + 0.1X2

Alternative land use: Shrimp

Farming systems

Total variable costs

Gross return Gross margin

Benefit-cost ratio Rice Shrimp Rice Shrimp

Two rice crops (n = 46)

25.3 ± 1.1

46.8 ± 2.0

21.6 ± 1.9

0.9 ± 0.1

Rice – shrimp (n = 48)

6.0 ± 0.6

24.1 ± 7.9

16.3 ± 2.1

50.4 ± 9.5

36.8 ± 5.1

1.2 ± 0.3


In million Vietnamese Dong

Vietnam – Belief 3: IF Hard policies are implemented THEN Rice production increase and livelihoods will improve


Cailon/Caibe SLR 30 cm Upstream hydropower Irrigation extension


THE MEKONG FUTURE PROJECT FIRST DRAFT REPORT ON THE HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION To Quang Toan1, Nguyen Hieu Trung2, Dang Kieu Nhan3 1Southern Institute of Water Resources Research 2Research Institute for Climate Change, Can Tho University 3Mekong Delta Research Institute, Can Tho University.

in 1,000 ha

Fresh

< 2 g/l

< 2-4 g/l

< 4-10 g/l

< 10-20 g/l

>20 g/l

155 -74 6 36 63 -186

SLR 30 cm Upstream hydropower Irrigation extension



Fresh

< 2 g/l

< 2-4 g/l

< 4-10 g/l

< 10-20 g/l

>20 g/l

329 26 -82 -79 -8 -186 in 1,000 ha

Cailon/Caibe + Hamluong/Cochien

Impact of droughts

SLR 30 cm Upstream hydropower Irrigation extension Climate change (+droughts)



Fresh < 2 g/l < 2-4 g/l

< 4-10 g/l

< 10-20 g/l

>20 g/l

-306 -148 180 163 87 23 in 1,000 ha

Yunnan Belief 1: IF Government provides payments/compensations THEN Rubber expansion can be reversed Exploring Yunnan Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 30

Evidence from the model

Exploring Yunnan Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 31

-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

Area under Rubber

%

Government compensation (Green rubber)

Regulation (Monoculture rubber)

Evidence from the model

Exploring Yunnan Futures | Dr Alex Smajgl | Page 32

-34%

-29%

-24%

-19%

-14%

-9%

-4%

1%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

Average household income Government payments

Regulation

Thailand – Belief 4: IF Inter-basin water diversions occurs THEN Income will increase


Impact of irrigation on income


-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

Kalasin

Mahasarakam

Khon Kaen

Average household income

Impact of irrigation on poverty


-0.70%

-0.60%

-0.50%

-0.40%

-0.30%

-0.20%

-0.10%

0.00%

Kalasin

Khon Kaen

Mahasarakham

27 January 2010 Base – Scen


07 November 2010 Base – Scen


27 December 2010 Base – Scen


Nexus effects – Livelihoods

1. Reduced income from fish in all LMB countries

2. Increased migration from Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia into Thailand

3. More employment in commercial farming, while decrease in both small

and subsistence farming households

4. Less income from riverside gardens

5. Maybe higher income from rice (potential productivity increase)

6. Increase wage employment in NE Thailand

CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures

Low income effects of industry employment (3-6%) except Xaysomboun (14%)


Industry employment effective to alleviate poverty


-12.00

-10.00

-8.00

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Vientiane[prefecture]Xiangkhoang

Bolikhamxai

Vientiane

Louangphrabang

Xaisomboun

The Water-Food-Energy Nexus �in the Mekong RegionSlide Number 2Mekong region Nexus SynthesisSlide Number 9Complex worldNexus System CriticalitiesSlide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19High income effects of irrigation (20-30% )�except Louangphrabang and XiangkhoangIrrigation has only marginal effects on povertyThank youSlide Number 23Alternative investment: Modern rice cropsAlternative land use: ShrimpSlide Number 26Cailon/CaibeCailon/Caibe + �Hamluong/CochienImpact of �droughtsSlide Number 30Slide Number 31Slide Number 32Slide Number 33Impact of irrigation on incomeImpact of irrigation on poverty27 January 2010 Base – Scen 07 November 2010 Base – Scen 27 December 2010 Base – Scen Nexus effects – LivelihoodsLow income effects of industry employment (3-6%) except Xaysomboun (14%)Industry employment effective to alleviate poverty

Documents

The Water-Food-Energy Nexus in the Mekong Region · 2015-05-26 · Alternative investment: Modern rice crops . CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 24 Rice production response