THE URBAN PROCESS AT THE GUAYAQUIL CITY, ECUADOR: AN

OPPORTUNITY FOR CARBON MANAGEMENT

Mercy J. Borbor-Cordova & Mauricio Velasquez-Romo

Direcciòn de Medio Ambiente

Municipio de Guayaquil, Ecuador

Downtown Guayaquil Estero SaladoGuayaquil at Night

Guayaquil: The Vision

Guayaquil: a city where their citizens deserve to live in a healthy environment.

The Guayas Basin and the City ofGuayaquil

The Guayas Basin and Gulf of Guayaquil, located between 2.0-3.5oS, 79.5-81.0oW, is the largest basin (32,025 km2) and estuarine system on the Pacific coast of South America. The city of Guayaquil is the most populated city in Ecuador (2.5 million) and is located at the outlet of the Guayas Basin.

Regional and Metropolitan Land Use

Three main anthropogenic activities have impacted the regional landscape:urban-industrial development, monoculture agriculture (banana, sugar cane, rice and maize), and more recently shrimp aquaculture.

Ecuador and Guayaquil´s Population

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Total Pop. Urban Pop. Rural Pop. Agr. Pop. Guayaquil

Population of Ecuador and Guayaquil

6050 Percentage urban (%)4720 - 350

Population density (inhabitant per ha)

272,045320Area (km2)1.5%2.24%Population Growth (%)

13.42,2Population (in millions)

EcuadorGuayaquilIndicator

49.6 % of the total population is under 20 years old (INEC 2000)

Population Density Spatial Distribution

There are 33 Urban Zones.

Consolidated Neighborhood:

200-350 inhab/ha

Downtown Zone:

100-150 inhab/ha

Informal and slums :

50 – 100 inhab/ha

GUAYAQUIL: Under rapid transformationPopulation and Density of Guayaquil

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GUAYAQUIL LAND USE TREND

49.1%

45%46%

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1000012000140001600018000

1993 1996 2000

AREA

(HA

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Residential

Bussines andServices

Industrial

Communityservices

Total Urbanizedland

URBAN ISSUES: •Slums take over mangroves and estuarine channels.•Urban communities are growing (urban sprawl).•Low density areas with lack of infrastructure and community facilities

• Youthful Population• Rapid growth of car ownership• Ageing of vehicle fleet and lack of

maintenance

Time Series of Ecuador´s Gross DomesticProduct

• High primary commodity-export economy

• Region is very vulnerable to the international markets that impact the prices of their main export products (oil, banana, shrimp).

Ecuador´s GDP by SectorsUS Dollars 2000

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Services

Transport and Communications

Business

Construction and Infrastructure

Power and Water Supply

Manufacturing Industry(excluding oil refinery)

Mineral and Quarry

Agriculture, Cattle, Silviculture,Fishing

Ecuador´s Gross Domestic Product

Guayaquil is the economic capital of Ecuador, its activities are based uponcommerce, manufacturing industry, and export products (Port Authority). Thecity contributes 60% to the national GDP of 20.5 billion US dollars. (GDP percapita : 1655 US$) Banco Central del Ecuador

Ecuador´s GDP by sectors (Year 2005)Agriculture,

Cattle, Silviculture,

Fishing10%

Business15%

Transport and Communications

7%

Services32%

Mineral and Quarry

14%

Manufacturing Industry

(excluding oil refinery)

13%

Power and Water Supply

1%Construction

and Infrastructure

8%

Economy, Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions.

GDP /capita vs Energy/capita

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Monterrey, MexGuayaquil, Ec Santiago, Chile

Sao Paulo, Br

Miami, USA

Sta Cruz, Bol Brasilia, Br

The Increase in GDP per capita has led to a rise in energy consumption and subsequently carbon emissions. However, emissions in Ecuador are still very low compared with other countries. Ecuador 1.82 MT CO2 per cap, Chile 3.4 MT CO2 per capita. Mexico 3.9, and USA 19.95 MTCO2 per capita (IEA 2003).

Ecuador Green House Gases Emissions GHG Emissions by Sector

in (Gg CO2)

Agriculture, Land Use

Change; 13,2; 39%

Transport; 8,9; 27%

Domestic Energy Use;

5,5; 17%

Industrial Energy Use;

4,3; 13%

Industrial Processes

(Cement); 1,2; 4%

Energy

Country Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1990).

•Ecuador generated 33 thousands Gg of carbon dioxide in 1990. • Energy production accounts for 57 % of total emissions, followed by land use change (39%) , and manufacturing industry (4%). By 2000 CO2 emissions of Transport increase up to 38% of the total emissions.

• The main source of CO2 is Diesel and gasoline used in transport.

Ecuador CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring:

1751-2002

CO2 emissions per capita in the Americas (2003):

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 5.43

CANADA 4.88

VENEZUELA 1.53

MEXICO 1.10

ECUADOR 0.47

BRAZIL 0.46

PERU 0.26

Urban Issues related to GHG emissions

• Land Use.- is related to agriculture and forest use within complex interactions of cultural practices and land pressure forurbanization. Conversion of mangrove forests into slums within the estuary of the Guayas has been a main problem for the city

• Transport .- vehicles moving goods and passengers. All theemissions arise from the combustion of petroleum products. An oldfleet of buses and the low quality of combustibles drive air pollution

problems mainly related to particulate matter.• Energy Consumption.-grew substantially over most of

the 1970s but declined during the economic disruptions of the 1980’s. Energy consumption grew rapidily and consistently during the 1990’s and has increased greatly - especially in Guayaquil. However, rapid population increases have kept per capita consuption very low compared with developed countries.

Issues related to Urban and EnvironmentalManagement

The problems related to environmental management and urban emissions are political, social, and economic. To mention a few:

• A low priority given to environmental problems by decision makers and citizens who tend to focus on economic and urban development.

• Lack of basic scientific background among decision makers and citizens regarding local and regional air pollution and their impacts on the health and the economy of the city.

• Weak or non-existent environmental monitoring programs by local governments or research institutions - Including limited databases about GHG emissions from point and mobile sources, air quality, meteorology and climate conditions.

• Difficulties in implementing Environmental Planning of Land Use, Air pollution controls due to limited enforcement and human capacities in development technologies for emissions reductions.

• Lack of an integrated environmental management plan that design strategies and actions in the medium and long term.

Local Government and Urban Policy• Before 1992, Guayaquil had an average of a Mayor per year, and

lacked medium and long term planning. Corruption was common at alllevels.

• In 1992, a new municipal administration brought a new face to thecity. Its most important achievement has been to bring governability tothe city. Urban regeneration has converted Guayaquil into an example of a well-managed city and an increasingly attractive tourist destination. Still many social and environmental issues need to be addressed.

• Two projects were developed in partership with the United NationsDevelopemt Program and UN Habitat whose objectives were todevelop a Urban Development Plan for the city (1994) and also MassTransport Plan (METROVIA) .

• In 2004, the stability and power of the Guayaquil local government iswidely recognized (UNDP).

Urban and Environmental Policy that impacts the carbon management of GuayaquilBus Rapid Transportation System

Bio-gas Recovery of the City Landfill

Pilot Ethanol Project

Scientific Management of an

Integrated Air Quality ManagementPlan

Pilot ECOHEALTH project in theimpact of Power Plants in poor

comunitites (Air & health)

METROVIA : Bus Rapid Transportation

Total of 7 troncales, phase I : 3 routes

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Velocitykm/hr

120.00030.33

220.00026.52

140,000311

Capacity(passa)

Longitud (km)

Troncal

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3

Cost of the Project : 67 Million US$

Present value of 20 years project with a ri : 12% and return on investment of 18%.

Transport and Road System• The road network has about

494,46 kilometers with a average vehicle velocity of 17 kilometers per hour.

• The city registered 167,000 vehicles in the year 2000, there is a rate of 13,6 people per vehicle, lower than Quito.

• Light weight vehicles represent 89% of the total vehicles.

• Only 6% is public transportation.• However, public and load

transport using Diesel is responsible for 40% of pollution.

• Characteristics• a) Use of segregated corridors• b) Integrated fare• c) Buses with large passanger

capacity• d) Looking at the Clean Development

Mechanisms (CDM) as anopportunity to generate cash flow tooperate the system.

METROVIA : Bus Rapid Transportation

Project: “Ciclovías: Red de Transporte No Motorizado Integrado para Guayaquil¨

Selected by the World Bank Bank as part of the Regional Sustainable

Transport Project (GEF)

Ethanol Pilot Project • In 2004, Ecuador’s government included in their national policy

the support of using Bio-combustibles, as part of the country effort within the Kyoto Protocol.

• In 2005, the city of Guayaquil began this initiative to reduce the imported fuel, help reduce air pollution and strengthen the local economy as well (sugar cane farming).OBJECTIVES:

• Supply a blending of Gas with 5 % of Ethanol for the city ofGuayaquil . To supply ethanol at national level will demand anincrease in sugar cane land from 76,000 to 140,000 hectares.

• Develop a technically and environmentally sound managementplan for bio-combustible use, including agricultural managment, industrial processing, blending infrastructure and a distributionsystem across the city of Guayaquil.

An opportunity for Carbon management

• Interdisciplinary Program to Evaluate the Airquality Management and Urban Climate ofGuayaquil.Parternship:– M.I. Municipio de Guayaquil (Local government)– Escuela Superior Politecnica del Litoral (University)– Insituto Nacional de Hidrologia y Meteorologia

(Research Institution)

Objective:• To establish a participatory and sustainable approach within an

interinstitutional Air Management Program for Guayaquil. Aims:– Study dispersion processes and pollutant transport.– Evaluate alternative strategies to prevent and mitigate air pollution

generated by human activities in the urban and periurban area ofGuayaquil.

– Develop cost-benefit analysis of mitigation measures and benefits tohealth.

– Delineate policies that target Air pollution, public health and GHG emissions.

Interdisciplinary Approach Components

• 1. Urban Climate.- Develop a baseline of the urban climateat the microclimate and mesoscale level (canton).. Spatial andseasonal differences will be mapped using a GIS.

• 2. Emission Inventory .- Develop a current emissioninventory of point and mobile sources of main air pollutantsand GHG. Develop different emission scenarios for urban, environmental, and air quality management.

• 3. Air Quality Dispersion Modelling.- Identify, select, apply, and validate (air quality) dispersion models within thegeographical area of Guayaquil. Using a GIS approach thatincludes different management scenarios, eg. Busines as Usual, Standards Threshold Compliance, CDM Projects, Technology Switch, and Economic Tools.

Program’s Components • 4 Economic Valuation.-• Develop an assessment of the health, social, and economic

benefits of implementing prevention and mitigationmeasures on air pollution in the city.

• Cost-benefit analysis is an important tool to acknowledgeand use in comunicating with industry, local governments, and decision-makers about urban policies related to urbanenvironmental management.

• 5. Strategies and Policies Proposal.

• Develop a participatory process to assess differentstrategies for mitigation within the following sectors: transport, industry, alternative combustible, and urban landplanning.

“Integración de Salud, Ambiente y Comunidad para evaluar la Calidad del Aire en zonas populares de Guayaquil y proponer acciones sociales y

políticas municipales“ , ECUADOR

ECOHEALTH Pilot Project funded by International Development Research Center

•Develop an ecological study of the Air Quality in two poor neighborhood•Develop an epidemiolgical study in children living in the surrounding area ofpower plants .• Develop an integrative and participatory system with the community, industry, local NGO and municipality to assess the environmental and social measures applied or proposed in the study area.• Delineate Policy

Conclusions:• Economic structure shapes environmental problems, in

the city of Guayaquil, transport and industry are the main drivers for air pollution and GHG emissions as well.

• Policies to be formulated within the Interdisciplinary Air & Clima Program not only would enhance prevention and mitigacion measures for air pollution and public health, but also would encourage a new vision for GHG policies for the city.

• The real benefits of the city projects: Metrovia, Ethanol, Landfill Gas need to be monitored and evaluated under the CDM .

• Political decision making and commitment is necessary toimplement these projects and vision.

Thanks!