The Shock of the New? Public opinion in 2015-20 · vote 5 th-6 May 2015 HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor/Ipsos MORI

The Shock of the New? Public opinion in 2015-20

[email protected] @benatipsosmori

Ben Page , Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI

2 2

Most predictions are wrong

The election, the polls, and

aftermath

Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI

[email protected] @benatipsosmori

Taking a hammering…

Before I begin..

don’t forget the

Exit Poll did

well…

The Exit Poll did extraordinarily well -

Conservative Party

Labour Party

Liberal Democrats

SNP

UKIP

Green Party

Others

Exit poll - 316 Result - 331



Exit poll - 58

Result - 21



Result - 56

Exit poll - 23

Source: Ipsos MORI/GfK NOP for BBC/ITV News/Sky News

Asking what did do,

rather than what

will…

Our final poll – all parties less than 2% points away

from actual – except Labour, overestimated

Base: 862 British adults who are registered and certain to

vote 5th -6th May 2015

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor/Ipsos MORI calculations from BBC reports

36%

35%

11%

5%

8% 5%

Ipsos MORI final poll GB final result

Conservative lead = +1 Conservative lead = +6.5

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER

37.7%

31.2%

12.9%

3.8%

8.1% 6.4%

We got highest

Conservative

share and

lowest error on

this key

calculation of

who would be

largest party…

Source: Chris Hanretty, University East Anglia

Average percentage point error on

Conservative/Labour vote share

Number of possible reasons for error…

Lots of knee jerk reactions

Late swing?

Shy Tories? Sampling error?

Labour turnout?

BPC Inquiry to unpick…

Will be more than one reason, and may vary by pollster – unlike 1992…

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Jun

10

Au

g 1

0

Oct

10

De

c 1

0

Fe

b 1

1

Ap

r 11

Jun

11

Au

g 1

1

Oct

11

De

c 1

1

Fe

b 1

2

Ap

r 12

Jun

12

Au

g 1

2

Oct

12

De

c 1

2

Fe

b 1

3

Ap

r 13

Jun

13

Au

g 1

3

Oct

13

De

c 1

3

Fe

b 1

4

Ap

r 14

Jun

14

Au

g 1

4

Oct

14

De

c 1

4

Fe

b 1

5

Ap

r 15

Polls got the final prediction wrong – but direction of

travel was fairly clear for last year…

Base: c.500-600 British adults certain to vote each month


Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

2013

average

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM

38 35 33

Election

campaign

average

31

2014

average

34

32

2012

average

41

33

2011

average

40

35

2010 post

GE

average

37

38

Lots of social media activity by the young, fewer votes

‘Shy Tories’ not our problem – instead ‘Lazy Labour’


Base: 1,186 British adults 18+, 5th – 6th May 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor/Ipsos MORI calculations from BBC reports

9.3

11.3

12.2

12.5

Implied from final poll ( includes element of over-claim byrespondents)

Actual votes

Votes

(millions)

© Ipsos MORI

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0

2015

2010

2005

Days before election

% certain to vote

-9ppt

-11ppt

-16ppt

Turnout lower than we predicted. Normally c10 percentage points lower

than claimed, but 16 percentage points in 2015

Difference between actual turnout and certainty to vote

© Ipsos MORI | Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential

Global Trends Survey | July 2014

MEGA TRENDS

www.ipsosglobaltrends.com

“We always overestimate the

change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will

occur in the next ten”

Bill Gates



POPULATION CHANGE

UNEVEN ECONOMIC GROWTH

GLOBALISATION AND MIGRATION

CLIMATE CHANGE

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE

POLITICAL AND

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE



Version 1 | Internal Use Only © Ipsos MORI

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

Changes in anxiety

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

Unemployment

NHS

Crime/ Law & Order

Economy

Immigration*



Rise in anxiety about inequality how far will it go?


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

Sept 1999:

Alastair Darling –

“one child in

three” living in

poverty

July 2014 –

highest score

recorded

(18%)

January 2005 –

Make Poverty

History

campaign

launched on New

Year’s Day

Cameron becomes

PM




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

A8 Countries

join the EU

House prices

rising at fastest

rate in 10 years

2005 Election – Blair promises

to make families £800 better off

and help first time buyers

Highest score

since May

2008 (15%)

Cameron becomes

PM


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014



Lords vote to increase

compensation for those

whose company pension

schemes have collapsed

Blair and Harriet Harman

propose ‘affluence testing’

to exclude the well-off from

state benefits

Brown unveils

pension credits

Pensions commission

report – “more than 12

million working people are

not saving enough for their

retirement”

Lowest ever score

(3%)

Cameron becomes

PM



Climate change no change here


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

Cameron’s “Vote

Blue, go Green”

campaign at 2006

local elections

Buncefield Oil Depot fire – toxic

cloud reaches northern Spain Wettest Autumn since

records began –

widespread flooding

across the UK

EC proposes carbon

emission cuts of 20%

by 2020

Stern

Review

on

climate

change

Cameron becomes

PM

Flooding

in

England


And concern about climate change is also falling

82% concerned 60% concerned 71% concerned

2005 2010 2013

Bases: 2013: 973 Great British adults, aged 15 and over, 8th - 26th March 2013; 2010: 1,822 Great

British adults, aged 15 and over, 6th January - 26th March 2010; 2005: 1,491 Great British adults,

aged 15 and over, 1st October – 6th November 2005. Methodology: face-to-face in-home

Source: Nuclear Power, Ipsos MORI/Cardiff

University/UKERC, 2013 http://www.ipsos-

mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3284/

British-public-split-on-nuclear-power.aspx

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3284/British-public-split-on-nuclear-power.aspx















Only Americans are less likely to agree that

climate change is anthropogenic

93%

84%

84%

82%

80%

80%

80%

79%

78%

77%

76%

76%

74%

72%

71%

70%

68%

67%

64%

64%

54%

6%

3%

6%

5%

5%

9%

8%

4%

4%

8%

8%

8%

12%

10%

9%

11%

12%

14%

5%

9%

13%

12%

15%

15%

16%

13%

14%

19%

20%

17%

18%

21%

22%

18%

22%

24%

25%

24%

32%

China

Argent…

Italy

Spain

Turkey

France

India

Brazil

Belgium

S Korea

S Africa

Total

Sweden

Germa…

Canada

Japan

Poland

Russia

Austra…

GB

US

Agree

Disagree

Total

Great

Britain

To what extent do

you agree or

disagree…

The climate change

we are currently

seeing is largely the

result of human

activity?

1

2

3

4

5

6

8

7

9

10

11

T

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 Sept 2013 Question 15h

Published


Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

The fuss about the EU?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

9/11

Treaty of

Accession: 10 new

EU Member States

France and

Holland reject

ratification of EU

constitution

Lowest score

recorded (1%)

Amsterdam Treaty signed

Cameron becomes

PM

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home

Post Euro

elections: Highest

score since June

2005 (12%)

Public services?

Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly

Confidential

© Ipsos MORI

63% … say they have not noticed any

changes to the services provided

by their local councils


Confidential

© Ipsos MORI

Net satisfaction scores are calculated by subtracting the proportion of people who are dissatisfied from the proportion of people who are satisfied

67

15

52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Headlines bad, satisfaction stable

Base: Adults aged 16+ in England (c. 1000 per wave) Source: Ipsos MORI/DH Perceptions of the NHS Tracker

%

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Net satisfied

Overall how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the running of the National Health Service nowadays?


Confidential

© Ipsos MORI

Pride in the NHS remains very high

Base: Adults aged 16+ in England (c. 1000 per wave) Source: Ipsos MORI/DH Perceptions of the NHS Tracker

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Please tell me whether on the whole you agree or disagree with each of the following statements…

% agree

78

…Britain’s National Health Service

is one of the best in the world

Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI

73%

72%

64%

21%

23%

29%

7%

5%

7%

Winter 2014

Winter 2013

Spring 2013

Agree Disagree Don't know/Not stated

Please tell me whether on the whole you agree or disagree with each of the following statements… People are treated with compassion when they use NHS services

High levels of agreement that people are treated with

compassion when using NHS services…

Source: Ipsos MORI/DH Perceptions of the NHS Tracker Base: Adults aged 16+ in England (c. 1000 per wave)

NHS




0

10

20

30

40

50

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

Introduction of

means-tested

tuition fees.

Education most

important issue.

First City Academies

introduced

Lowest score

since Dec 1985

(9%)

Labour’s second term - pledge

to improve failing secondary

schools

Education and

Inspections Bill limits

the power of LAs to

open new schools

April 2011 – Pupil Premium

introduced

Cameron becomes

PM


Teachers aren’t happy with the government

3

2

1

1

35

13

7

8

22

31

11

13

27

30

28

32

13

24

47

45

Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the current

government’s performance on education?

Very satisfied Fairly

satisfied

Neither

satisfied nor

dissatisfied

Very

dissatisfied

Fairly

dissatisfied

2010

2014

2004

2015

Question: Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the current government’s performance on education? Base: 1,026 school leaders

(2015); 1,198 school leaders (2014); 366 teachers on Senior Leadership Team interviewed for Ipsos MORI’s 2010 Teachers Omnibus; 322

teachers on Senior Leadership Team interviewed for 2004 Teachers Omnibus

Source: The Key/Ipsos MORI; Ipsos MORI Teachers Omnibus


But never are!

3

2

1

1

35

13

7

8

22

31

11

13

27

30

28

32

13

24

47

45

Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the current

government’s performance on education?

Very satisfied Fairly

satisfied

Neither

satisfied nor

dissatisfied

Very

dissatisfied

Fairly

dissatisfied

2010

2014

2004

2015

Question: Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the current government’s performance on education? Base: 1,026 school leaders

(2015); 1,198 school leaders (2014); 366 teachers on Senior Leadership Team interviewed for Ipsos MORI’s 2010 Teachers Omnibus; 322

teachers on Senior Leadership Team interviewed for 2004 Teachers Omnibus

Source: The Key/Ipsos MORI; Ipsos MORI Teachers Omnibus


Confidential

© Ipsos MORI

Q Thinking about this local area, which four or five of the following, if any, do you think

most need improving?

What are people worried about?

Base: Adults aged 15+ in Great Britain (997) 11 – 17 April 2014. ‘Local area’ defined as 15 to 20 minutes walking distance from respondents home

41%

30%

29%

27%

24%

21%

20%

19%

16%

16%

15%

15%

14%

13%

12%

12%

Condition of roads and pavements

Job prospects

Activities for teenagers

Cleanliness of streets

The level of traffic congestion

Affordability of housing

The level of crime and anti-social behaviour

Facilities for young children

Local high street facilities

Public transport

Wage levels and local cost of living

Parks and open spaces

Health services

Schools

Social care – adults and older people

Sports and leisure facilities

Mentions above 10%

Source: Ipsos MORI Local Improvement Index


Q Which of the following challenges do you think will be most important to public

services as a whole over the next five years? Please pick three. And which one is least

important?

What are people worried about for public

services?

Base: Adults aged 15+ in Great Britain (997) 11th – 17th April 2014

47%

34%

25%

23%

22%

21%

17%

16%

13%

10%

Budget cuts

Changes in society (ageing population,immigration)

Finding new ways to deliver servicesmore efficiently

Changes in people’s health and lifestyles

Responding to changes in the Government’s policies

Retaining good staff and positivemorale

Losing public support in their ability todeliver services

Protecting personal data and keepinginformation secure

Tackling the effects of climate change

Having good relationships with otherorganisations they work with

6%

6%

7%

7%

6%

4%

8%

4%

30%

11%

Most important Least important

36 41% of public believe further austerity will be

needed – 46% disagree

Thinking about the state of Britain’s economy and the amount the government spends and borrows,

which of these statements comes closest to your view even if you don’t completely agree with any of

them?

Base: 2,006 British adults 18+, 27th -28th August

13%

18%

28%

41%

Don't know

Austerity and cuts in

government spending were

never really needed to fix the

national economy, it was just an

excuse to cut public services

Whilst a period of austerity was

needed to fix the national

economy, we don't need

another five years of cuts in

government spending

The national economy is not yet

fully fixed, so we will need to

continue with austerity and

cuts in government spending

over the next five years

37 Six in ten feel people are entitled to expect

more from government

Source: Populus

Please indicate the extent to which you agree with each pair of opposing statement, even if neither

statement represents your view exactly. (Scale of 0-10.)

Base: 2,006 British adults 18+, 27th -28th August

17%

59%

24%

Agree equally with both (5)

People are entitled to

expect more from

government (NET: 6-10)

People expect too much

from government (NET: 0-

4)

What will the UK look like in future?


Confidential

© Ipsos MORI

Localism

61%

59%

58%

56%

55%

52%

51%

47%

47%

46%

46%

45%

42%

42%

39%

37%

37%

34%

30%

26%

26%

27%

28%

21%

31%

24%

31%

22%

17%

29%

27%

24%

26%

36%

18%

33%

31%

32%

13%

14%

13%

23%

15%

20%

25%

22%

31%

37%

26%

28%

31%

34%

35%

27%

46%

33%

40%

42%

US

GB

Canada

S Africa

France

Austra…

Italy

Japan

India

Turkey

Poland

Total

Brazil

Russia

Spain

Germa…

Argent…

Belgium

Sweden

S Korea

1 to 2

4 to 5

Total

Great

Britain

Which comes

closest to your own

opinion?

A. Decisions about

public services (e.g.

public transportation,

public education, public

safety and social

services), are better if

they are made locally

OR

B. Decisions about

public services are

better if they are made

nationally

Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 Sept 2013 Question 12 (no

China)

1

2

3

4

5

6

8

7

9

10

11

T

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19


Confidential

© Ipsos MORI



TECHNOLOGY PRIVACY TRADITION HEALTH

SIMPLICITY GLOBALISATION GENERATIONS INEQUALITY

TRUST


THE CULTURE OF NOW



PERSONALISATION VS PRIVACY

44

© Ipsos MORI

I keep saying that the sexy job

in the next 10 years will be

statisticians. And I’m not

kidding.

Hal Varian, chief economist at

Google

It’s exciting – honestly…

45

© Ipsos MORI

Challenge 1 – quality and speed

“It is a misunderstanding to assume somehow this is

about technology rather than about data. The essential thing is the quality and reliability of the underlying data and updating it in real time. We haven't been able to master those two aspects yet.”

Tim Kelsey,

In interview with Ipsos MORI (Understanding Society), 2013

Many data quality challenges…

• Big doesn’t necessarily mean more representative

• Identifying location is often challenging

• Demographic information is sometimes limited

• Identifying groups based on behaviour is often a process of trial and error

• Need to maintain privacy

46

© Ipsos MORI

If you found out a company you are a customer with (for example your bank or your main supermarket) was doing any of the following, which if any, would make you seriously consider not using this company again?

70

56

53

51

49

40

Failing to keep safe or losing my personaldata

Selling anonymous data about customersto other companies

Exploiting overseas workers

Charging higher prices than competitors

Damaging the environment

Paying senior executives a largebonus/salary

%

Source: Deloitte/Ipsos MORI Base: 1,036 British adults 15+, 30 March – 5 April 2012

Challenge 2 – significant concerns about privacy…

47

© Ipsos MORI

How concerned, if at all, are you about public services sharing personal information

about you?

And specific concerns about public services sharing

personal information

Base: 1,009 adults aged 18+ telephone Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor October 2013

12%

19%

31%

37%

1%

Very

concerned

Fairly

concerned

Not very

concerned

Not at all

concerned

48

© Ipsos MORI

How happy or unhappy would you be for government departments and public services to do

the following? Share data with other government departments and public services if it would

lead to…

…but most happy about ‘sharing data’ if there are

benefits – especially for service improvement

Base: 1,009 adults aged 18+ telephone; split sample (c.500 per statement) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor October 2013

54%

14%

31%

Happy

Neither/nor

Unhappy

Don'tknow

61%

13%

24%

6%

… cost savings …better quality services


WHERE NEXT?



HEALTH PERSONAL AND PREVENTATIVE


1

2

3

4

5

6

7

T

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

72%

49%

45%

39%

27%

25%

24%

24%

20%

19%

18%

18%

17%

16%

14%

12%

10%

9%

8%

7%

6%

8%

11%

10%

18%

11%

16%

32%

27%

23%

32%

13%

23%

27%

49%

35%

33%

34%

43%

42%

60%

44%

Brazil

India

China

Turkey

S Korea

Argentina

S Africa

Total

Belgium

Australia

Japan

Russia

Sweden

France

US

Canada

Poland

GB

Germany

Spain

Italy

Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 Sept 2013

WHERE IS IT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE?

Over the coming

years, do you

expect the quality

of healthcare that

you and your

family will have

access to locally

will improve, stay

the same or get

worse?

Improve

Total

Great Britain

Key:

Get worse



FROM TREATMENT TO PREVENTION TO WELLNESS

72% want more control over

their healthcare

85% are willing to seek a

second opinion if doubts

about doctors’ diagnosis

2ND



SIMPLICITY CHOICE ABOUT CHOICE


Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 Sept 2013

UNIFORM DESIRE FOR SIMPLICITY

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

16-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55+I wish my

life was

more simple

Emerging

% agree

Established



, complexity, and

limited attention span can lead to behavioural market

Cass Sunstein



GENERATIONS GENERATIONS APART


Almost entirely wrong


All data points represent > 200 responses

Source: British Social Attitudes

“How much do you agree or disagree that … the creation of the welfare

state is one of Britain's proudest achievements.”

..our generations start from very different places...

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)

% % Agree/Strongly agree




“The government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor,

even if it leads to higher taxes”

Overall public opinion has moved significantly against further redistribution via welfare in Britain….

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Agree

Disagree




“The government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor,

even if it leads to higher taxes…”

Even as attitudes change – generations stay different…

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)

% Agree

1. Decline in support across board

2. But generations are different – and stay different

3. Younger age groups are less open to further redistribution




Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party?

Support for ONE party down to 21%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Pre war (born before 1945) Baby boomers (born 1945-1965) Generation X (born 1966-1979)

Generation Y (born 1980-) Generation Z (born after 2000) Total

% Yes




Are sexual relations between two adults of the same sex always wrong, almost

always wrong, wrong only sometimes, or not wrong at all?

17% to 62% in “support” for gay relationships

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22



% Not wrong at all




A husband's job is to earn money; a wife's job is to look after the home and

family

From 38% to 80% disagreement with traditional gender roles

0%

10%

20%

30%

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% disagree

In conclusion - change is coming (as always)

Values change relatively slowly

But certainly “tipping point” risks

Transparency and lack of trust…

Pressure to innovate is relentless

Greatest human needs unchanged

Good luck

Thank you [email protected]

benatipsosmori

The challenge for managers and leaders– TRY SOMETHING NEW

Documents

The Shock of the New? Public opinion in 2015-20 · vote 5 th-6 May 2015 HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor/Ipsos MORI