The Role of CCS for Climate Change Mitigation, and its

PerspectiveTim Dixon

IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme

7th Korea CCUS International ConferenceJeju, Korea

9 February 2017

Why CCS ?

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportSynthesis Report

2nd November 2014Copenhagen

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Key Messages

➜ Human influence on the climate system is clear

➜ The more we disrupt our climate, the more we risk severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts

➜ We have the means to limit climate change and build a more prosperous, sustainable future

AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM, AR5 WGIII SPM

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

The Choices We Make Will Create Different Outcomes

With substantial mitigation

Withoutadditionalmitigation

Change in average surface temperature (1986–2005 to 2081–2100)AR5 WGI SPM

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

AR5 SYR SPM

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Sources of emissionsEnergy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions

35%24% 21% 14% 6.4%

2010 GHG emissions

Energy Sector

Agriculture, forests and

other land usesIndustry Transport

Building Sector

AR5 WGIII SPM

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Mitigation Measures

More efficient use of energy

Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy• Many of these technologies exist today

Improved carbon sinks• Reduced deforestation and improved forest management

and planting of new forests • Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage

Lifestyle and behavioural changesAR5 WGIII SPM

IPCC AR5 – Role of different low-carbon energy technologies

IPCC AR5 SYR from Table 3.2 (2014)

© OECD/IEA 2016

IEA ETP: CCS plays a key role in 2°C

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2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtCO

2

Renewables 32%

CCS 12%

Power generation efficiencyand fuel switching 1%

End-use fuel switching 10%

End-use efficiency 38%

Nuclear 7%

6DS

2DS

Global CO2 reductions by technology area, 2013-2050

© OECD/IEA 2016

IEA: 94Gt CO2 captured and stored in 2DS

From 50Mt in 2020 to 6Gt in 2050 A total of 94Gt captured and stored through 2050

52Gt 56% power 29Gt 31% process industries 13Gt 14% gas processing and biofuel production

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

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7 000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

MtC

O2

Other

Gas processing

Biofuels

Chemicals

Cement

Iron and steel

Biomass power

Gas-fired power

Coal-fired power

CCS deployment by sector in the 2DS

• ‘Climate Action Now’ UNFCCC - 18 Nov 2015

• High level summary of policy actions with high mitigation potential at 2020

• Builds on Technical Expert Meetings (TEMs)

• Includes CCUS as one of the six priority areas

• Significance of Boundary Dam CCUS project

• Solutions through international cooperation – eg IEAGHG, CSLF, GCCSI

COP-21 Paris (2015)

COP-21 – Paris Agreement

• Article 2 – ‘Objectives’• Purpose of the agreement is limit warming to “well below” 2.0

C (by 2100) and pursue 1.5C • To be delivered by the pledges in Articles 3 and 4

• Increasing adaptation• Ensuring finance• Continues principle of “common but differentiated

responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances”

COP-21 – Paris Agreement

• Article 3 and Article 4 – ‘Mitigation’ • via (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

• Global peak of emissions asap, rapid reductions thereafter to achieve balance between emissions and sinks in second half of century

• Developed countries to lead, Developing countries to enhance efforts over time. Reflecting common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances

• NDCs to be updated very 5 years to represent a progression (from 2020) (current INDCs cover from 2020 to 2025 or 2030)

COP-21 – Paris Agreement

• Article 6 – “Cooperative Approaches” mechanism - for “internationally transferred mitigation outcomes“ – a new CDM-type mechanism?

• Article 7 – ‘Adaptation’

• Article 8 ‘Loss and Damage’ - Warsaw International Mechanism continues its work

• Article 9 ‘Finance’ – Financial Mechanism continues. Administered by continuing Green Climate Fund ($100bn by 2025) and GEF.

COP-21 – Paris Agreement

• Article 10 – ‘Technology Development and Transfer’• technology framework to provide overarching guidance to

the Technology Mechanism (ie CTCN) in promoting technology development and transfer

• “strengthen collaborative approaches to research and development”

• Technology neutral at the moment, depends on the technology framework which will be developed

COP-21 – Paris Agreement• Article 11 – ‘Capacity Building’• Article 12 – ‘Education’• Article 13 – ‘Transparency’• Article 14 – ‘Stocktake’ - in 2023 [2018 also], then every 5

years

• Open for signing from 22 April 2016 to 21 April 2017• Enters into force after 55 Parties ratify with 55% of emissions =

4 November 2016• Calls upon IPCC to do Special Report on 1.5C, by 2018

Photo Courtesy of IISD/ENB

Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)

Climate Action Tracker http://climateactiontracker.org/global/173/CAT-Emissions-Gaps.html

• 187 INDCs submitted• 94% global emissions• New trajectory to ~ 2.7C • ~ 3.6C from existing policies

• CCS in 10 INDCs Bahrain MalawiCanada NorwayChina Saudi ArabiaEgypt South AfricaIran UAE

(and EU and USA)

• ‘Unburnable Carbon’ = fossil fuel reserves which cannot be used under a global carbon budget

• Stranded Assets = the result of above

• ‘Carbon Bubble’ = over-valuation of fossil fuel-producing companies if cannot use all reserves

CCS and ‘Unburnable Carbon’

• Aim: assess relevance of CCS in terms of “unburnable carbon”

• Contractor:

• IEAGHG Report 2016-05

IEAGHG Study on ‘UnburnableCarbon’ and CCS

EMF27 IAM inter-comparison

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2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

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gy (E

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Years

Primary Energy|Fossil (2005-2100)450ppm

Fulltech Conv noCCS

Utilisation of fossil fuels decreases in all scenarios over time

From 2030: significant impact of CCS on fossil fuel use, esp. coal

Range of outcomes from different models is large

Study on ‘Unburnable Carbon’ and CCS – Conclusions

The global carbon budget erodes quickly

The impact of CCS on unburnable carbon is significant, starting from 2030/2040 and becoming more apparent by 2100

Cost assumptions do not limit CCS uptake in IAMs

But there are other factors that limit CCS uptake in IAMs

Hypothesis: residual emissions

Global CO2 storage capacity (volumetric) is large and well above known fossil fuel current reserves

May need pressure and brine management - induce higher storage costs

CCS enables access to significant quantities of fossil fuels in a 2°C world

COP-22• Marrakesh, 7-18 November 2017• Positive context: the Paris Agreement ratified ahead of expected

timescales and entered into force on 4 November 2016. • Negative context: the USA election result. • Calls from participants at COP for clear and consistent leadership on

climate issues to continue from everyone, including industry. Confirmed in the high level political statement the ‘Marrakesh Action Proclamation’.

• Overall outcomes were agreements on the processes to develop the details of the many parts of the Paris Agreement to be ready for its implementation in 2020, including a financial roadmap for the $100bn of climate finance by 2020, with an ambition to have many of these rules ready by an earlier than expected timescale of 2018.

• ie work in progress towards implementation

CCS in UNFCCC

2005 - IPCC SR on CCS

2005– 2011 CCS in CDM?

2011 – CCS CDM Abu Dhabi workshop 2011 - COP-17 CCS in CDM

2014 - ADP TEM on CCS – project focussed 2014 - COP-20 – CCS projects Side Event 2015 - COP-21 – CCS projects Side Event

COP-22 : CCS in CDM unresolved issues

• CCS accepted in CDM at COP-17 Durban, 2011. New CCS-specific ‘Modalities and Procedures’.

• Left two unresolved issues – transboundary; global reserve of credits

• COP-22 SBSTA-45 agreed “to conclude the consideration of the eligibility under the CDM of project activities consisting of CCS and storage in geological formations that involve the transport of CO2 from one country to another or geological storage sites that are in more than one country, and the establishment of a global reserve of CERs for CCS in geological formations.” FCCC/SBSTA/2016/L.19/Add.1

• So the consideration of these two issues is ended.

CCS Activities at COP-22• UNFCCC Side event: “CCS Opportunities for Africa”. 8th Nov • Collaboration with UT, CO2GeoNet, CCSA. Speakers from BHP/SaskPower, S.Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, UT BEG,

CO2GeoNet, and IEAGHG (introducing and chairing).

• Booth on CCS information inside UNFCCC Blue area, with CO2GeoNet, UT, CCSA

• IEAGHG also presented at:• CO2GeoNet CCS event in EU Pavilion, 7th Nov• CO2GeoNet CCS event in Public area, 10th Nov• Oceans and Climate event in Public Area, 10th Nov

Global CCS Update

Very Active region

Active region

R&D/Pilots

Active region

Developing Interest

Commercial-scale Application of CCS (to date)

1996

Sleipner 1Mt/y CO2

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Weyburn2.5 Mt/y CO2

Snohvit 0.7Mt/y CO2

2010 2012 2014 20162018

In-Salah1.2 Mt/y CO2

160km sub sea pipeline350km overland

pipeline

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7

1

2

6

9

Injection Ongoing

Injection Scheduled 2013-2015

Large-volume tests Four Partnerships currently injecting CO2

Remaining injections scheduled 2013-2015

Injection began Nov 2011

Injection Started April 2009

Core Sampling Taken

Note: Some locations presented on map may differ from final injection location

Injection began August 2012

RCSP Phase III: Development PhaseLarge-Scale Geologic Tests

Injection started in depleted reef February 2013

Injection Started May 2013

Monitoring well

drilling started

3Partnership Field Project –

Geologic FormationMetric Tons Injected to

Date

Big Sky Kevin Dome- DuperowFormation 0

MGSC Illinois Basin Decatur-Mt. Simon Sandstone > 850,000

MRCSP Michigan Basin -Niagaran Reef > 234,000

PCOR

Bell Creek -Muddy Sandstone > 741,000

Fort Nelson -Sulfur Point Formation 0

SECARB

Early Test (CranfieldField) - Tuscaloosa

Formation> 4,300,000

Anthropogenic Test (Citronelle Field) –Paluxy Formation

> 100,000

SWP Farnsworth Unit -Morrow Formation > 102,000

WESTCARB Regional Characterization

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Injection startedOctober 2013

Courtesy NETL 2014

2013 Port Arthur Project

• H2 Plant – SMR operated by Air Products• Consists of 2 Trains of SMR

• Retrofit capture VSA• Operational 2013• 1mt CO2 pa to EOR

2014 Worlds first integrated coal fired power plant with CCS• SaskPower’s Boundary

Dam Coal PS, Saskatchewan, Canada

• 110MWe Retrofit • Shell/Cansolv Post combustion

capture technology.• EOR, and storage at Aquistore• Started operation October 2014• 2016 - International CCS

Knowledge Centre

2015

Quest, Shell CanadaH2 Refining1mt CO2 pa to DSF storage

Lula, Petrobras, BrazilOffshore gas separation and CO2-EOR

2016-2017 Power Sector

Kemper County, USAPetra Nova, NRG Parish, USA

Refit of existing coal fired unit Operational in late 2016 MHI amine based PCC

technology 250 MW slip stream 90% capture CO2 for EOR

• Novel IGCC Technology• 524 MW lignite fired – new build• 65% of total emissions captured• Due on stream 2017

Other New Developments • Norway

• Assessing 3 industry CCS projects• Offshore Assessments

• Gulf States• Uthmaniyah CO2-EOR Demonstration Project, Saudi

Aramcoo Source Gas processing – 0.8Mt/y

• The Abu Dhabi CCS Projecto CO2 capture capacity of 0.8 Mtpa,o the world’s first iron and steel project

Precombustion CO2 capture

© OECD/IEA 2016

IEA: 20 Years of Carbon Capture and Storage

New IEA CCS publication, released on 15 November at GHGT-13 and COP-22.

Three sections:

1. Two decades of progress

2. Towards well below 2°C: An increased role for CCS

3. The next 20 years: Picking up the pace

http://www.iea.org/topics/ccs/

© OECD/IEA 2016

IEA: Implementing Paris: Well-below 2°C

“Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2oC above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change;”

“… Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking will take longer for developing country Parties, and to undertake rapid reductions … so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks … in the second half of this century …”

© OECD/IEA 2016

IEA: Shifting to “well below”:Targeting remaining emissions in the 2DS

Remaining CO2 emissions in the 2DS in 2050

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GtCO

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Othertransformation

Agriculture

Power

Buildings

Transport

Industry

Industry the largest source of emissions in 2050 (45%) Industry accounts for 33% of aggregate emissions to 2050

© OECD/IEA 2016

IEA: Remaining emissions in power

Annual (left) and cumulative (right) CO2 emissions of the power sector in the 2DS

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Coal w/o CCS Gas w/o CCS Oil Coal w/CCS Gas w/CCS

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Power sector virtually decarbonised by 2050; but is the second-largest source of cumulative emissions in the period to 2050 (29%)

Unabated gas-fired power is the largest source of power sector emissions in 2050

© OECD/IEA 2016

IEA: Beyond net zero emissions

© MCC (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change) www.mcc-berlin.net.

- 1

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Fossil CCS powergeneration (captured)

Fossil CCS industry andfuel transformation(captured)

Bio-CCS powergeneration (negativeemission)

Bio-CCS fueltransformation(negative emission)

“Negative emissions” in the 2DS

ADM’s Illinois Industrial CCS Project: the first large-scale BECCS project

© OECD/IEA 2016

IEA: 20 Years of Carbon Capture and Storage

New IEA CCS publication, released on 15 November.

Three sections:

1. Two decades of progress

2. Towards well below 2°C: An increased role for CCS

3. The next 20 years: Picking up the pace

http://www.iea.org/topics/ccs/

© OECD/IEA 2016

IEA: CCS is not “on track”

CCS has moved forward – but is far from being consistent with a 2°C pathway• If all projects known today were to proceed, the maximum capture rate

would be less than 70 MtCO2

Capture potential of the project pipeline, by sector. Data source: GCCSI

© OECD/IEA 2016

IEA: Will Paris provide needed momentum?

CCS mentioned in only 10 NDCs 2030 timeframe Perception that CCS is a future

technology

Parties invited to submit mid-century climate strategies by 2020

Mission Innovation 23 members; $30 billion/year by 2021 “Carbon Capture Innovation

Challenge”

Can we Build CCS Fast Enough?

• Will need rapid deployment of CCS infrastructure

• Analogues from industry build-out rates in Power sector and Oil and Gas sector suggest “Yes”

IEAGHG Report 2012/09

© OECD/IEA 2016

IEA: Accelerating future progress

Stable policies, including financial support, are urgently needed. CO2 storage development critical New approaches and a re-focusing of efforts can also promote faster

deployment: Greater emphasis on CCS retrofitting Cultivating early opportunities for BECCS Developing markets for “clean products” Moving from conventional enhanced oil recovery (EOR) practices to “EOR+” for

verifiable CO2 storage Disaggregating the CCS value chain to enable new business models to emerge

“Deployment of CCS will not be optional in implementing the Paris Agreement”

Dr Fatih Birol, Executive Director, International Energy Agency

The Role of CCS for Climate Change Mitigation, and its Perspective

7th Korea CCUS International ConferenceJeju, Korea

9 February 2017

Thank You

Any questions?

www.ieaghg.org