The Positive Faces of Rurality in Minnesota

The Positive Faces of Rurality in Minnesota

By Benjamin WinchesterCoordinator, Data Analysis & Research

January 26, 2008

www.centerforsmalltowns.org

What is rural?

0

20

40

60

80

100

Year

Per

cen

t

United States

Minnesota

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

What is Rural anyway?

• 1900 – U.S. 34% of people live in cities

• 2000 – U.S. 80% of people live in cities

• Rural life appears to be dying and this notion is reinforced through writings, movies, and policies

• Census Bureau definitions do not explain the rich context of rural life today

• Understandings of Rural are antiquated

Historical Patterns of Rurality

The First Minnesota

• Pre-1900 to 1930• Defined by railroad transportation

networks and the rise of central places and

• The rural areas are defined not by something they are, but by something they are not - dichotomous

RURAL URBANOR

Railroads dropping off the town

Rural = Agriculture

Small Towns = Places to bring agriculture-related products for system-wide distribution

The Second Minnesota

• 1930 – 1970 • Marked by automobile transportation,

industrialization, and education• Defined in academic terms as a continuum• Attempts to shift your location “up” along this line• Rural understanding is still built upon an urban

base

RURAL URBAN

1905 – 77,988 automobiles were registered

1925 – 17,000,000 automobiles were registered

Changes in distribution systems and connections

Model A

Model T

A little bit country…

• This period gives rise to the notion of rural growth and development and attainment of urban status (fully functioning service centers) for even remote cities

• Organizations “do” rural development

Goods and services for all

Building are occupied

Rise of the Professionals

• Rural Development Industry arises

• Growth (or movement up the continuum) is a driving value

• Urban Ideal

• Agriculture is dominated by consolidation and mechanization leading to even larger population losses.

The Third Minnesota

• 1970 – present• (Post) Modern view of Rural• Rural areas are no longer understood as

something concrete, but defined by the symbolic perceptions of the population and professionals

• The “Decline of Rural Minnesota” comes to an end

Rural Rebound

• The Urban Ideal ends

• Record numbers of people move into nonmetropolitan areas in the 1970’s and 1990’s

• Also known as Rural Renaissance, Rural Revival, and Booming Boondocks

Rural Idyll

Lakes

Fishing

Amish life

Barn Raising

ATVs or Skiing

There are 50 Paul Bunyan statues in the U.S.

Social gatherings and tight-knit relationships

Hunting

Mississippi Headwaters

Farming and agriculture

Rural Economy(restructured)

Distribution of Nonmetro Employment, 1969

Construction5%

Manufacturing21%

TCPU4%

Trade17%

FIRE4%

Services15%

Extractive17%Government

17%


Construction5%

Manufacturing20%

TCPU4%Trade

18%

FIRE5%

Services17%


16%


Construction5%

Manufacturing18%

TCPU4%

Trade19%

FIRE5%

Services20%


17%


Manufacturing15%

TCPU4%

Trade20%

FIRE5%

Services24%

Construction6%


16%

6.3% of rural Americans live on farms.

Farming accounts for 7.6% of rural employment.

0.39% of the US population is engaged in farming as a primary occupation.

1.8% of the US rural population is engaged in farming as a primary occupation.

Dominant rural industries have shifted from agriculture, to manufacturing, to services.

Underemployment is an issue

Rural – not just for Agriculture anymore

The Conditions Today

“The kids are all leaving”“The losses continue”

“We have an aging population”“Rural areas are bleeding”

REALLY!?


Growth!

Rural Traits

• The 1990’s saw a rural population rebound; which totally reversed the outmigration of the 1980’s.

• 70% of rural counties grew in population from 1990 to 1999.

• 7/8 of these growing counties derived some or all of their increase from in-migration of metro residents.

• 61% of rural counties experienced net in-migration between 1990 and 1999.

• In fact, between 1990 and 1999, 2.2 million more Americans moved from the city to the country, than the reverse.

Source: Johnson, Kenneth and Calvin Beale, 1999.

1990-2000

National Population Gains

• Retirement

• Recreation

National Population Losses

•Extractive Industries

•Manufacturing

•Agriculture

Price per Gallon of Gasoline (2004 dollars)

$2.75

$2.52

$2.10$1.96

$1.77

$2.21

$1.48

$1.27

$2.34

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

1919 1929 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999

Source: US Department of Energy

Growth Makes Intuitive Sense

• Where would our small towns be if nobody did come back after the youth leave?

• They would have been ghost towns decades ago.

• There is both decline AND growth in our small towns.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Under 5

year

s

5 to

9 ye

ars

10 to

14

year

s

15 to

19

year

s

20 to

24

year

s

25 to

29

year

s

30 to

34

year

s

35 to

39

year

s

40 to

44

year

s

45 to

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year

s

50 to

54

year

s

55 to

59

year

s

60 to

64

year

s

65 to

69

year

s

70 to

74

year

s

75 to

79

year

s

80 to

84

year

s

85 ye

ars

and

over

Actual

Expected

If you were 10 years old in 1990, you would be 20 in 2000. So, if there were 100 people 15-19 in 1990, we expect 100 people 25-29 in 2000.

Source: U.S. Census, Minnesota EDA Region 4

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

under5

5 to 9 10 to14

15 to19

20 to24

25 to29

30 to34

35 to39

40 to44

45 to49

50 to54

55 to59

60 to64

65 to69

70 to74

75 to79

80 to84

85andover

Pe

rce

nt

of

Po

pu

lati

on

Minnesota Stevens County

What about the children?

Total Attendance by Grade in Collaborative Region

Grade 1997-98 2000-01 2003-04Pct. Change 1997-2001

Pct. Change 2001-2004

PK 137 141 169 2.9% 19.9%

KG 1,043 958 980 -8.1% 2.3%

01 1,087 962 924 -11.5% -4.0%

02 1,168 1,070 937 -8.4% -12.4%

03 1,170 1,072 989 -8.4% -7.7%

04 1,207 1,109 1,006 -8.1% -9.3%

05 1,241 1,230 1,123 -0.9% -8.7%

06 1,319 1,215 1,121 -7.9% -7.7%

07 1,475 1,330 1,215 -9.8% -8.6%

08 1,477 1,335 1,335 -9.6% 0.0%

09 1,555 1,407 1,309 -9.5% -7.0%

10 1,654 1,503 1,338 -9.1% -11.0%

11 1,509 1,453 1,344 -3.7% -7.5%

12 1,504 1,496 1,355 -0.5% -9.4%

K-12 Sum 17,409 16,140 14,976 -7.3% -7.2%

Cohort Growth in School Enrollment

Grade+/- size of 1997-98

Cohort in 2000-01+/- size of 2000-01

Cohort in 2003-04

4 (were in 1st Grade) 22 44

5 62 53

6 45 49

7 135 118

8 110 117

9 106 112

10 28 8

11 -24 9

12 -59 -52

Source: Minnesota Department of Education

Example: The 4th grade cohort in 2000-01 is 22 students larger than theircohort 4 years earlier (19987-98) when they were in 1st grade.

The Trend

• The growth is primarily in the 35 to 44 age group – the in-migration into rural communities is just about equal to that of the out-migration of youth as they finish school. (they are 25-34 when they move)

• The adults are in their prime earning years.• These people are bringing children aged 10-18

with them.• A new equilibrium will be reached in school

enrollments in the next 5-7 years.

Newcomers! Why?

• Randy Cantrell, “Buffalo Commons” research at the U of Nebraska.– cari.unl.edu/buffalo

• Simpler pace of life

• Safety (children riding their bicycles)

• Low housing costs– Subprime market collapse may be an

opportunity.

Newcomers! Who?

• 40% attain bachelors degree• 48% have household incomes over $50k• 43% have children in their household• They are generally leaving their career• Underemployed in current situation• Yet, Quality of Life is the trump card• The question is not how to GET them it’s

how to KEEP them.

Keeping the Newcomers

• 60% say they will be living there 5 years from now.

• The % is lower for younger people.• Those who rate community as friendly and

trusting have higher %• Expectation of staying related to feeling of

belonging, suitable housing, job security and opportunities, opportunities to join local organizations, and others.


The Social Fabric

Maintenance Costs

• The “Aging” of our towns• Physical – water, sewer, roads, buildings

– Paint the fences– School buildings

• Social– Leadership requirements of a small town– Social infrastructure

• Let’s examine the Social aspects more closely.

Maintenance Costs Community Leaders

Incline of Maintenance Costs

• New facilities built in past 75 years

• Associations/organizations/institutions created

• Devolution (decentralization) of government– Increase in responsibility– Decrease in resources– Local representation on federal and state boards

To name a few….

• School board, Parents Teachers Association, City (Council, Human Rights Commission, Library, Park Board, Planning Commission, Tree Board), County (Board of Adjustment, Board of Commissioners, LWMP, Planning Commission), Chamber of Commerce, Economic Development Authority, Humane Society, Red Cross, Fraternal Groups (Eagles, VFW, Legion), Soil and Water Conservation District, Initiative Foundations, Aging Board, Regional Development Councils

• plus...temporary associations

Decline of Community Leaders

• Aging population– Are we making use of these assets or just

tokens?

• Non-involved newcomers (in existing groups, anyway)

• Declining population in some areas

Per-Capita Leadership Requirements

• Population Over 10,000– 6% run for or accepted appointment to public

office

• Population Under 1,000– 27% run for or accepted appointment to

public office– Increasing since 2002

• This is just public office…

(Nebraska Rural Poll, 2002 and 2004)

The Result

• Burnout – leadership capacity is taxed

• Barely maintain existing organizations

• Unable to take on new projects

• We must see a restructuring of our social institutions– Organizational losses will occur – mourning will

be needed– Some towns may be challenged for survival

Social Organizations

• Social groups reflect the social interests at any given time

• Today is not 25 years ago!

• The people today seem unable to “connect” with the existing social infrastructure

Types of Involvement

• How do people want to be involved?– Social Organization (historical)

• Place-based• Broadly focused• Agricultural base of interests

– Social Organization (present)• Cover wide geographic areas• Narrowly focused goals/interests• Diverse social interests

• “Community-based” is confusing and can mean either

What Next?• Differentiate between core and peripheral needs in the

community– Refocus the core as well

• We may need to dissolve some of our community groups to ensure our survival

• The existing leaders are not taking the time to really involve the newcomers

• This cohort growth (with kids) can lead to involvement in school activities

• Don’t focus on the negative aspects of population change, such as the loss of 18 year olds or seniors people dying – we’ve tried and the results are episodic and sporadic

• There are positives! (and they outweigh the negatives)• Lets finally acknowledge these and focus our energies there• Assumption: People DO have time when there is something

they are really interested in

the Rural Development Industry

• Who are these people?

• Cantrell & Winchester, 2004

• Totality of non-local private and public organizations dedicated to working in and for rural areas

• Let’s examine it like an industry

Friends in the Field

All Together Now!

August, 2007

Community Readiness?

• How do we know if a community is “ready” to tackle a new project or program?

• What do you consider to be key indicators that a community is ready (or NOT ready) to engage in your program(s)?

Planning in Rurality

The New Ruralism

Technology has changed our choices in residential location. Today we can have:

• a bank in our homes• an office in our homes• a newspaper in our homes• a bookstore in our homes• a brokerage firm in our homes• a factory in our homes• an investment firm in our homes• a school in our homes

QUALITY OF LIFE NOW MATTERS

The New Ruralism

Small Group Exercise

Mark on the map: (L, P, S, W)• Where do you live?• To where do you travel to play?

– What do you do where you play?

• To where do you travel to shop?• Where do you work?

– How far do you travel to work?

Scale of New Ruralism• Can be applied to a larger scale beyond a neighborhood• Planning must give way to natural evolution – Urban Ecology of Chicago School

WORK

HOMEPLAY

15-60mins

2 HOURS

SHOP15-45mins

1.Rural metropolitan2.Rural recreational3.Rural residual – agricultural, manufacturing,

health & education services

• Each of these areas require individualized planning• Because of the these triangulations, city services vary

– build it and they still won’t come OR don’t build it and they will still come

• Example: rural metropolitan – use some services from neighbors, such as library

The Three “rurals” in Minnesota

Recreation and tourism

• The symbols (agriculture, fishing, boating, skiing) that people have of rural places are manifest in the choices they make.

• People have to go somewhere to choose their rural experience

• It is assumed that the love affair with the automobile will not end.

• Tourism – an “authentic” rural you can participate in

• You must understand your rural “customers” – existing residents, visitors, and newcomers.

Marketing the New Ruralism

• Targeted Product Placement – like store shelves, products are placed at eye level based on demographics (adults, kids).

• Complementary Products – the placing of products provide a “fit”.

• Complementary Targeted Products – placing a Shopping Center next to a Cabela’s or a food coop next to a grocery store.

• Groups of people have varied product interests with regards to their rural experience.

Result of the New Ruralism

Now undergoing a reconfiguration of rural institutions:

»Businesses»Schools»Governments»Non-profits

Each place needs to determine its location in the triangulation of the New Ruralism. Also, assume with transportation systems that people WANT to drive and explore. A small town cannot have it all – only a cluster of communities (some may be in a metropolitan or recreational area) can, as a whole, provide the scale for the New Ruralism.

Planning the New Ruralism

Under the new ruralism model, it is necessary to include the visions of those that do not reside full-time in the community.

For recruitment:– What about the people who just play there?– Or work there?– Or shop there?

Documents

The Positive Faces of Rurality in Minnesota