The Moneyball Effect: Teaching AP Statistics through Sports

Paul BuckleyGonzaga College High School

Washington, DCpbuckley@gonzaga.org

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Why?Growth of Statistics

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Why use Sports?

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So how can Sports help us learn AP Statistics?

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Statistical Inference Through Sports

Miguel Cabrera vs Austin JacksonWho is really responsible for Detroit’s

success?

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Two-Proportion Z Test

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The Data

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Simulate the Games

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StatKeyFathom

Simulation results

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Likelihood = p-value

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Experimental Design Through Sports

Which is the better putter?

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The ExperimentControl – putter, ball, ‘course’,

swingRandomization – prevent ‘hot

hand’Easier to identify the response

variable and what would affect itReplicationBlindingBlocking

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Experimental Design Through Sports

Which is the better putter?

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Regression Through Sports

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGf6LNWY9AI

Moneyball scene:

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Regression Through Sports

Offense vs DefenseWhich is the better predictor of wins?

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0.7993r 0.7296r

Think of the possibilities…Soccer: Free Kicks vs GoalsHockey: Power Plays vs GoalsGolf, which is a better predictor

of success, greens in regulation or number of putts?

Tennis: unforced errors or 1st serve percentage vs points won

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What else?Putting together a relay team

(track, swimming) – lesson in z-scores, normal distributions

Game strategies – situational hitting – conditional probabilities

Layups vs jumpers vs 3-pointers – non-linear regression

And ……?

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