The MissingPiece

of America’s Clean Local Energy Transformation

John Farrell, Senior Researcher

Presentation to Biocycle Conference on Oct. 29, 2012

Image credit Shel Silverstein

How Much of Missouri’s Power from Rooftop Solar?

Residential and Commercial roofs

? %

Residential and Commercial roofs

21%

How Much of Missouri’s Power from Rooftop Solar?

Potential Percent of Electricity from Rooftop Solar PV

0 to 10%10 to 25%25 to 50%50 to 100%

20%

23%

49%

42%

31%

18%

23%

24%

19%

19%28%

23%

24%

24%

26%

21%

12%

11%52%51%

49%

22%

23%

21%23%

19%

14%

38%41%

26%

35%

28%

19%

25%

21%

25%

24%

20%

22%

21%

19%

23%

17%

23%

18% 20%

15%

24%

21%18%

How Much Power from Local, Rooftop Solar?

Residential and Commercial roofs

Potential Percent of Electricity from Onshore Wind Power

0 to 10%10 to 25%25 to 50%50 to 100%100% or more

2%

0%

0%

0%

1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

2%3%

3%

4%

9%

11%

12%

14%

25%52%97%

95%

0%

116%

311%543%

27,000%

14,000%

269%2900%

8900%

2500%

4100%

28,000%

35,000%

14,000%

9700%

3200%

5200%

912%

1500%

300%

10%

726%

478%

541% 223%

116%

780%

109%297%

100 meters, 30% c.f. or better

How Much Power from Local Wind?

Potential Percent of Electricity from Renewables

0 to 10%10 to 25%25 to 50%50 to 100%100% or more

How Much Power from Local Renewables?

32 states - 100%+

9 states - 50%+

TransformationCentralized PowerYesterday

Transmission network

Distribution network

House

Storage

Local CHP plant

Commercialbuilding

Factory

Storage

Storage

Storage

Solar PV power plant

Windpowerplant

House with domestic CHP

Clean, local powerTomorrow

-20¢

-15¢

-10¢

-5¢

0¢

5¢

10¢

Cost of solar Energy value Grid benefits Social benefits

4¢

$4/Watt

How the utility values distributed

generation

•prevent blackouts•reduce pollution•create jobs•on-site/near demand•lower transmission losses•reduce dist. system stress•hedge against fuel prices•avoided cost

Distributed Solar Power Worth Far More Than Electrons | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/3tqmerh

0¢

-20¢

-20¢

-15¢

-10¢

-5¢

0¢

5¢

10¢

Cost of solar Energy value Grid benefits Social benefits

4¢

Distributed Solar Power Worth Far More Than Electrons | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/3tqmerh

0¢

-20¢

8.5¢ But it’s worth more

•prevent blackouts•reduce pollution•create jobs•on-site/near demand•lower transmission losses•reduce dist. system stress•hedge against fuel prices•avoided cost

-20¢

-15¢

-10¢

-5¢

0¢

5¢

10¢

Cost of solar Energy value Grid benefits Social benefits

4¢

Distributed Solar Power Worth Far More Than Electrons | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/3tqmerh

0¢

-20¢

and more

8.5¢

12.4¢

•prevent blackouts•reduce pollution•create jobs•on-site/near demand•lower transmission losses•reduce dist. system stress•hedge against fuel prices•avoided cost

It’s Real

Palo Alto, CA, municipal utility

$0

$0.03

$0.06

$0.09

$0.12

$0.15

Brown energy replacementAvoided transmission lossesEnvironmentalAvoided transmission accessLocal capacity value

Feed-In Tariff for PV in Palo Alto, Calif. Imminent: http://tinyurl.com/72sxgsb

7¢

It’s Real

6¢ per kWh in addition to

electricity

Palo Alto, CA, municipal utility

$0

$0.03

$0.06

$0.09

$0.12

$0.15

Brown energy replacementAvoided transmission lossesEnvironmentalAvoided transmission accessLocal capacity value

Feed-In Tariff for PV in Palo Alto, Calif. Imminent: http://tinyurl.com/72sxgsb

}7¢

Solar PV

Wind

Coal

Natural Gas

0 2 4 6 8 10

Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Create? (UC Berkeley)

Construction, manufacturing, and installationOngoing maintenance and fuel

Jobs per Megawatt

Local Economic Impact

Economic Development Impacts of Community Wind Projects: A Review and Empirical Evaluation (NREL)

Local ownership

Not localUp to 3.4x higher

Attitude towards increased use of local wind energy

Not local

0 25 50 75 100

very negative negative neutral positive very positive

-44%

+33%

+77% net approvalLocal

Ownership

Jobs

Votes

Clean, Local Energy

Money

Photo credits: (wind) Flickr user ali_pk, (solar, above) Ian-S, (solar, below) MN CERTS, (money) Flickr user epSos.de

Image credit Shel Silverstein

http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2010/12/02/3081889.htm

http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2010/12/02/3081889.htm

Biogas orBiomass CHP

What’s Missing?17%

Solar/wind electricity

Renewable energy policy

10%

Current RE policy

Geothermal electricityMicro hydropower

17%10%Solar/wind electricity

Current RE policy

Ground-source geothermalSolar heat (e.g. hot water)

Geothermal electricityMicro hydropower

17%10%Solar/wind electricity

Current RE policy

Ground-source geothermalSolar heat (e.g. hot water)

Biomass CHPBiogas Heat

Geothermal electricityMicro hydropower

17%10%Solar/wind electricity

Current RE policy

Ground-source geothermalSolar heat (e.g. hot water)

Biomass CHPBiogas Heat

Biogas Fuel CellsRenewable NG

Geothermal electricityMicro hydropower

17%10%

100%100%

Solar/wind electricity

States with Renewable Heat Policies

An Overview of Renewable Heating in the United States: Policy and Market Trends

States with Renewable Heat Policies(that offset non-electricity)

An Overview of Renewable Heating in the United States: Policy and Market Trends

Biogas Energy

Electricity, Heat, and Cogeneration

Pipeline Renewable Natural Gas

Biogas Policies

CLEAN Contracts (Feed-In Tariffs)

Enhanced Renewable Electricity Standards

Renewable Natural Gas Standards

Biogas: Rethinking the Midwest’s Potential

What’s Missing?

Flexible electricity

Renewable heat

Look for success: Germany, Denmark

Biogas and Biomass for: