The Ins and Outs of Migration Population Trends and Policies

The Ins and Outs of The Ins and Outs of MigrationMigration

Population Trends and Policies


Three AmericasThree AmericasThe Rising The Rising Significance ofRegionsSignificance ofRegions

William William H. H. FreyFrey

The SunbeltThe SunbeltPopulation Trends and Policies

• "America's suburbs," 1/5"America's suburbs," 1/5thth of the population. of the population.• 13 states, located primarily in the Southeast 13 states, located primarily in the Southeast

and West, 24% growth in the 1990s.and West, 24% growth in the 1990s.• During the 1990s domestic inmigrants During the 1990s domestic inmigrants

outpaced foreign inmigrants by five to one; outpaced foreign inmigrants by five to one; and captured 79% of the nation's White and captured 79% of the nation's White population gain. population gain.

• 9 of the 10 states that gained White married 9 of the 10 states that gained White married couples with children in the 1990s.couples with children in the 1990s.

• New retirees, a group whose numbers will New retirees, a group whose numbers will explode in the next decade.explode in the next decade.

The Ins and Outs of The Ins and Outs of MigrationMigration




The Melting PotThe Melting PotPopulation Trends and Policies

• 9 states, 74% of the combined Hispanic and 9 states, 74% of the combined Hispanic and Asian populations but only 41% of the total Asian populations but only 41% of the total population. population.

• Grew by 13% in the 1990s, dominated by Grew by 13% in the 1990s, dominated by immigrants, with Asians and Hispanics immigrants, with Asians and Hispanics accounting for 76% of the gains.accounting for 76% of the gains.

• Non -White, non-Black races additional 17% Non -White, non-Black races additional 17% of growth. of growth.

• 6 states with greatest immigrant gains in the 6 states with greatest immigrant gains in the 1990s. 1990s.

• Lost White population during the 1990s.Lost White population during the 1990s.

The HeartlandThe HeartlandPopulation Trends and Policies

• 28 states and the District of Columbia 28 states and the District of Columbia contained 39% of the U.S. population. contained 39% of the U.S. population.

• Modest population growth.Modest population growth.• 81% White and 12% Black, with Blacks 81% White and 12% Black, with Blacks

primarily located in industrial cities. primarily located in industrial cities. • In the 1990s, only about 14% of the nation's In the 1990s, only about 14% of the nation's

Asian and Hispanic gains.Asian and Hispanic gains.

Urban, Suburban, and RuralUrban, Suburban, and RuralPopulation Trends and Policies

• The new regional "White flight" from the The new regional "White flight" from the Melting Pot to the New Sunbelt. Melting Pot to the New Sunbelt.

• The Melting Pot provides intensity, ethnic The Melting Pot provides intensity, ethnic diversity, and close contact. diversity, and close contact.

• The New Sunbelt offers a quieter setting, The New Sunbelt offers a quieter setting, large lot sizes, and local control. large lot sizes, and local control.

• Large swaths of the Heartland now replicate Large swaths of the Heartland now replicate the older, more conservative rural areas of the older, more conservative rural areas of the past.the past.

Prospects and ChallengesProspects and ChallengesPopulation Trends and Policies

• Within the Melting Pot states, there is Within the Melting Pot states, there is already evidence of greater interracial and already evidence of greater interracial and intercultural dating and marriage, and intercultural dating and marriage, and residential coexistence. residential coexistence.

• These trends imply that an important These trends imply that an important national challenge for the present century national challenge for the present century will be to find ways to bridge these new will be to find ways to bridge these new regional divisions among communities with regional divisions among communities with different demographics, lifestyles, and values different demographics, lifestyles, and values but probably similar aspirations. but probably similar aspirations.

Components of Components of Population ChangePopulation Change

• Births Registered*

• Deaths Registered*

• In-migrants Not Registered*

• Out-migrants Not Registered*

*Refers to U.S. Vital Statistics System


The Demographic Balancing The Demographic Balancing EquationEquation

PopulationToday

+ Births - Deaths═

+ In-migrants - Out-migrants

PopulationYesterday

“natural increase”

“net migration”

2000 1990 1990-00 1990-00

1990-00


Migration and the CensusMigration and the CensusMigrants and MoversMigrants and Movers

Residence 5 years earlier plus location Residence 5 years earlier plus location of current residence equals the extent of current residence equals the extent of residential mobility and the of residential mobility and the resulting redistribution of the resulting redistribution of the population across the various population across the various counties, states, metropolitan areas, counties, states, metropolitan areas, and regions of the country.and regions of the country.


Migration or MobilityMigration or MobilityMigrants and MoversMigrants and Movers

Same house - includes all people 5 years old and over who did not move during the 5 years as well as those who had moved but by Census Day had returned to their 1995 residence.

Different house - includes people who lived in the United States 5 years earlier but lived in a different house or apartment from the one they occupied on Census Day. These movers are then further subdivided according to the type of move.


Migration or MobilityMigration or MobilityMigrants and MoversMigrants and Movers

Different House, Same County – Intracounty Mover

Different County, Same State - Intercounty Migrant, Intrastate Mover

Different State, Same Region - Interstate Migrant, Intraregion Mover

Different Region, Same Country - Interregional Migrant, Intranational Mover

Different Country, Same Planet (From Abroad) – International Migrant, Intraplanetary Mover


Migration and MigrantsMigration and Migrants"Inmigrants" are generally defined as those people who moved into an area.

In some tabulations, movers from abroad may be included in the number of inmigrants; in others, only movers within the United States are included.

"Outmigrants" are people who moved out of a specific area to some other place in the United States.

Movers who left the United States are not available to be included in any tabulations.

"Net migration" is calculated by subtracting the number of outmigrants from the number of inmigrants.

The net migration for the area is net inmigration if the result is positive and net outmigration if the result is negative.


Missing MigrationMissing MigrationThe number of people who were living in a different house 5 years earlier is somewhat less than the total number of moves during the 5-year period.

Some people in the same house at the two dates had moved during the 5-year period but by the time of the census had returned to their 1995 residence.

Other people who were living in a different house had made one or more intermediate moves.

For similar reasons, the number of people living in a different county, metropolitan area, or state, or the number moving between nonmetropolitan areas, may be understated.


The Demographic Balancing The Demographic Balancing EquationEquation

OIDBPP 01

OIDBPP 01

)()( 01 DBPPOI


The Net Migration GameThe Net Migration Game

““Where am I?”Where am I?”

““Why am I here?”Why am I here?”


Net Migration by Age, 1940s-1990sNet Migration by Age, 1940s-1990sMissoula County, MontanaMissoula County, Montana

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.20.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.01.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0-45-9

10-1415-19

20-2425-29

30-3435-39

40-4445-49

50-5455-59

60-6465-69

70-7475+

1950-1960 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000


Net Migration by Age, 1940s-1990sNet Migration by Age, 1940s-1990sYellowstone County, MontanaYellowstone County, Montana

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.40.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0-45-9

10-1415-19

20-2425-29

30-3435-39

40-4445-49

50-5455-59

60-6465-69

70-7475+

1950-1960 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000


Applied Demography

Net Migration by Age, 1940s-1990sNet Migration by Age, 1940s-1990sRavalli County, MontanaRavalli County, Montana

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0-45-9

10-1415-19

20-2425-29

30-3435-39

40-4445-49

50-5455-59

60-6465-69

70-7475+

1950-1960 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000

Ravenstein’s Laws of MigrationRavenstein’s Laws of Migration• Most inmigrants come from

nearby• Most outmigrants settle nearby• Most principal origins of

inmigrants are the same as the principal destinations of outmigrants

Ravenstein, E. G., 1885. “The Laws of Migration.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 48 Part II (June):167-235.Ravenstein, E. G., 1889. “The Laws of Migration.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 52 (June):241-305.


Ravenstein, E. G., 1885. “The Laws of Migration.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 48 Part II (June):167-235.Ravenstein, E. G., 1889. “The Laws of Migration.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 52 (June):241-305.


Documents

The Ins and Outs of Migration Population Trends and Policies