THE HUMAN THE HUMAN POPULATIONPOPULATION

Chapter 5 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Chapter 6

Population ExplosionPopulation Explosion

> 1800’s – slow growth> 1800’s – slow growth 1830 – 1 billion 1830 – 1 billion Time needed to add 1

billion

1930 – 2 billion1930 – 2 billion 100 years100 years 1960 – 3 billion1960 – 3 billion 30 years 30 years 1975 – 4 billion1975 – 4 billion 15 years 15 years 1987 – 5 billion1987 – 5 billion 12 years 12 years 1999 – 6 billion1999 – 6 billion 12 years 12 years 2011 – 7 billion (?) 12 years 2011 – 7 billion (?) 12 years

For information purposes only

A.D.2000

A.D.1000

A.D.1

1000B.C.

2000B.C.

3000B.C.

4000B.C.

5000B.C.

6000B.C.

7000B.C.

1+ million years

8

7

6

5

2

1

4

3

OldStoneAge New Stone Age

BronzeAge

IronAge

MiddleAges

ModernAge

Black Death —The Plague

9

10

11

12

A.D.3000

A.D.4000

A.D.5000

18001900

1950

1975

2000

2100

Future

Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).

POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION GROWTH THROUGH HISTORYTHROUGH HISTORY

Major Human AgesMajor Human Ages

1.1. Hunter-gatherer Hunter-gatherer 100,000-10,000 years 100,000-10,000 years agoago

2.2. Agricultural Era Agricultural Era 10,000 – 1700’s10,000 – 1700’s

3.3. Industrial RevolutionIndustrial Revolution– EarlyEarly mid 1700’s - 1940mid 1700’s - 1940– ModernModern 1940 – present1940 – present

The world population has been The world population has been growing rapidly over the past 100 growing rapidly over the past 100 years. Why?years. Why?

Is it due to an increase in birth rate?Is it due to an increase in birth rate? Is it due to a decrease in death rate?Is it due to a decrease in death rate? Is it due to longer life expectancy?Is it due to longer life expectancy? Is it a combination of these factors? Is it a combination of these factors? The answers to this question can be The answers to this question can be

found by studying demography. found by studying demography. – – to be examined laterto be examined later

GlossaryGlossary

Define the following terms:Define the following terms: Birth Rate (BR)Birth Rate (BR) Death Rate (DR)Death Rate (DR) Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)

BR – DRBR – DR Total Fertility Rate (TFR)Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Infant MortalityInfant Mortality Life ExpectancyLife Expectancy Doubling timeDoubling time GNI PPP per capita and GNPGNI PPP per capita and GNP Replacement level fertility (RLF)Replacement level fertility (RLF)

Look up these terms and understand their meaning

World Economic World Economic DivisionsDivisions

Low-income countriesLow-income countries GNI < $766 GNI < $766 Middle-income countries Middle-income countries GNI $766-$9385 GNI $766-$9385 High-income countriesHigh-income countries GNI >$9385 GNI >$9385 More Developed countries (Developed)More Developed countries (Developed) – High – High--

incomeincome Less Developed countries (Developing)Less Developed countries (Developing) – Low and – Low and

Middle incomeMiddle income

GNI = Gross National IncomeGNI = Gross National Income

Two Worlds – Two Worlds – Developed WorldDeveloped World

1.1. 18% of world’ population18% of world’ population

2.2. wealthy nations - use 80% of world’s wealthy nations - use 80% of world’s resourcesresources

3.3. affluence – over consumptionaffluence – over consumption

4.4. slow or no population growthslow or no population growth

5.5. high per person environmental impacthigh per person environmental impact

6.6. I = P.A.TI = P.A.T

Two Worlds – Two Worlds – Developing WorldDeveloping World

1.1. 82% of world’ population82% of world’ population2.2. Low and middle-income nations - use Low and middle-income nations - use

20% of world’s resources20% of world’s resources3.3. 28% (1.5 billion people) of the 28% (1.5 billion people) of the

population of developing world live onpopulation of developing world live on4.4. rapid population growthrapid population growth5.5. low per person environmental impactlow per person environmental impact6.6. 28% live on less than $1/day28% live on less than $1/day

World Population - World Population - 20072007

  Population Population SizeSize

Rate of Rate of Natural Natural Increase Increase

TotalTotalFertility rateFertility rate

WorldWorld 6.6 billion 1.2% 2.7

More Developed More Developed CountriesCountries

1.2 billion 0.1% 1.6

Less Developed Less Developed CountriesCountries

5.3 billion 1.5% 2.9

Less Developed Less Developed Countries Countries (excluding China)(excluding China)

4.0 billion4.0 billion 1.8%1.8% 3.33.3

Examine the “2007 World Examine the “2007 World Population Data Sheet” . Print a Population Data Sheet” . Print a copy of the copy of the 2007 Data Sheet 2007 Data Sheet pdfpdf file file (I gave you a copy of this).(I gave you a copy of this).

How do BR, DR, TFI, Life How do BR, DR, TFI, Life expectancy etc. differ in the More expectancy etc. differ in the More Developed and Less Developed Developed and Less Developed World? World?

18% of the world’s population live 18% of the world’s population live in developed world, 82% in less in developed world, 82% in less developed world.developed world.

76 million people added to the 76 million people added to the world population per year.world population per year.

98% of population growth is 98% of population growth is occurring in developing countries. occurring in developing countries. Why?Why?

Quality of Life Quality of Life IndicatorsIndicators The United Nations rates a countries The United Nations rates a countries

Human Development Index (HDI) Human Development Index (HDI) (external link) (external link) on the basis of the following quality of life on the basis of the following quality of life indicators:indicators:

1.1. Life expectancyLife expectancy - living a long and healthy life - living a long and healthy life 2.2. Adult literacy rateAdult literacy rate and and 3.3. Purchasing power parity, PPPPurchasing power parity, PPP - having a decent - having a decent

standard of living (measured by, income). standard of living (measured by, income). These factors gives insight into the ability of These factors gives insight into the ability of

population to take care of itself.population to take care of itself. A low income society will not have the money A low income society will not have the money

(GNI) to spend on food, shelter jobs and health (GNI) to spend on food, shelter jobs and health care which affects the Infant Mortality Rate and care which affects the Infant Mortality Rate and Life Expectancy.Life Expectancy.

  Basic indicators, 2007  

  Country

Infant Mortality Rate

Life Expectancy

Per Capita GNI (2006) US$

India 54 64 $3,800

Kenya 77 53 $1,300 

China 25 72 $7,730  

Brazil 27 72 $8,800  

United States

6.5 78 $44,260

Japan 2.8 82 $33,730  

Ireland 3.8 78 $35,540  

Examine the trend, there is no need to memorize the numbers

Replacement level fertility (RLF)Replacement level fertility (RLF) 2.03 for developed countries2.03 for developed countries 2.16 for developing countries2.16 for developing countries Currently Currently More developed countries TFR = 1.6More developed countries TFR = 1.6 Less developed countries (ex. China) Less developed countries (ex. China)

TFR = 3.3 TFR = 3.3

  Fertility Declines in Selected Countries

 

Total fertility Rates

Country   1960   1989   2007

China 6.0 2.4 1.6  

Mexico 7.2 3.8 2.4  

Brazil 6.2 3.4 2.3  

Indonesia 5.6 3.5 2.4  

India 6.2 4.3 2.9  

Examine the trend, there is no need to memorize the numbers

Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods

80

8783

7976 76 75

72

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Net population added per year Annual population growth rate

Mill

ions

Per

cen

t in

crea

se p

er y

ear

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

Quality of LifeQuality of Life What are the effects of population What are the effects of population

growth on the quality of life in the growth on the quality of life in the developing world?developing world?

PovertyPoverty MalnutritionMalnutrition Unsafe waterUnsafe water DiseasesDiseases Lack of housingLack of housing Undermines economic growthUndermines economic growth Environmental degradationEnvironmental degradation

Use the text to examine these factors

What options are What options are available to rural poor ?available to rural poor ? Over-cultivation – soil erosionOver-cultivation – soil erosion Farm marginal landFarm marginal land Illegal activities (poaching, drugs, Illegal activities (poaching, drugs,

prostitution) prostitution) Rural to urban movement - Urban Rural to urban movement - Urban

ghettosghettos Emigration – legal or illegalEmigration – legal or illegal

UrbanizationUrbanization

UrbanizationLargest Urban Agglomerations, 1950, 2000, 2015

                                                                                                                                                        

Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 1999 Revision.

15 megacities (>10 million) in developing world

The poorest of the The poorest of the poorpoor

1.5 billion people live on<$1/day1.5 billion people live on<$1/day Lack:Lack: adequate food adequate food decent housing decent housing jobsjobs health carehealth care results in high infant/child mortality and results in high infant/child mortality and

low life expectancylow life expectancy resort to illegal activities, scavenging, resort to illegal activities, scavenging,

begging, prostitution, illegal immigration begging, prostitution, illegal immigration UN UN MilleniumMillenium Development Goals Development Goals

Absolute PovertyAbsolute Poverty

About 1.5 billion people (about 1 person About 1.5 billion people (about 1 person in 4) lives in “absolute poverty”in 4) lives in “absolute poverty”

Robert McNamara, former president of Robert McNamara, former president of the World Bank defines this asthe World Bank defines this as

““A condition of life so limited by A condition of life so limited by malnutrition, illiteracy, disease, squalid malnutrition, illiteracy, disease, squalid surroundings, high infant mortality, and surroundings, high infant mortality, and low life expectancy as to be beneath any low life expectancy as to be beneath any reasonable definition of human decency.” reasonable definition of human decency.”

Environmental EffectsEnvironmental Effects

What are the effects of population What are the effects of population growth on the environment?growth on the environment?

Soil erosionSoil erosion PoachingPoaching Loss of speciesLoss of species DesertificationDesertification Air/water pollutionAir/water pollution

Examine how overpopulation affects these factors

AffluenceAffluence High consumption of food, lumber, High consumption of food, lumber,

nonrenewable resources (minerals, oil)nonrenewable resources (minerals, oil) USA – highest per person consumption USA – highest per person consumption

of resourcesof resources High pollution – COHigh pollution – CO22 , hazardous air , hazardous air

and water pollutantsand water pollutants Impact on developing countries -Impact on developing countries -

tropical forests (lumber), minerals, oil tropical forests (lumber), minerals, oil exported. exported.

Demography - Demography - Population ProfilePopulation Profile A A population profilepopulation profile is a bar graph is a bar graph

which shows:which shows: The number or percentage of The number or percentage of

males and females at each age males and females at each age group in a population.group in a population.

Can be used to estimate the Can be used to estimate the future growth of a population. future growth of a population.

DemographyDemography

The study of populations, their The study of populations, their composition and predictions of composition and predictions of future change.future change.

DemographerDemographer - a person who - a person who studies populations and studies populations and population change over time.population change over time.

ExampleExample

% Natural Increase% Natural Increase is determined by the is determined by the difference between birth rate and death difference between birth rate and death rate. rate.

Population GrowthPopulation Growth is determined by the is determined by the difference between birth rate plus difference between birth rate plus immigration and death rate plus immigration and death rate plus emigration. emigration.

Net Migration rateNet Migration rate - # of people entering - # of people entering or leaving the population per 1000. A + or leaving the population per 1000. A + sign indicated net addition of migrants, a – sign indicated net addition of migrants, a – sign indicated net removal of migrants. sign indicated net removal of migrants.

BR = 39, DR = 21, % Nat. Increase = 2.1% , Growth BR = 39, DR = 21, % Nat. Increase = 2.1% , Growth Rate = 1.8%, TFR = 5.3, Net Migration = unavailable Rate = 1.8%, TFR = 5.3, Net Migration = unavailable

This population is undergoing rapid population growth – pyramid shaped profile

Populations with wide bases tend Populations with wide bases tend to be “young populations” – have to be “young populations” – have a large number of people below a large number of people below age 15. age 15.

Have great momentum for future Have great momentum for future growth as the large number of growth as the large number of young will soon enter their young will soon enter their reproductive years.reproductive years.

BR = 14, DR = 8, % Nat. Increase = 0.6%, Growth BR = 14, DR = 8, % Nat. Increase = 0.6%, Growth Rate =0.9%, TFR = 2.1, Net Migration = 3Rate =0.9%, TFR = 2.1, Net Migration = 3

This population is undergoing slow population growth – notice the base is about the same width as the middle section (15-65 year olds)

BR = 10, DR = 14, % Nat. Increase = -0.5%, BR = 10, DR = 14, % Nat. Increase = -0.5%, Growth Rate = -0.8%, TFR = 1.4, Net Migration Growth Rate = -0.8%, TFR = 1.4, Net Migration = - 4= - 4

This population is undergoing population shrinkage or negative population growth. Notice the base is smaller than the middle population (15-65 year old) group.

Populations with narrow bases are Populations with narrow bases are producing few young. Their TFR has producing few young. Their TFR has been below 2.0 for several years.been below 2.0 for several years.

These populations are shrinkingThese populations are shrinking may not have enough workers to may not have enough workers to

support dependants in the future.support dependants in the future. Many countries of western Europe are Many countries of western Europe are

shrinking (negative percent natural shrinking (negative percent natural increase)increase)

may encourage their populations to may encourage their populations to reproduce and/or open their borders to reproduce and/or open their borders to more immigrant workers. more immigrant workers.

Predictions vs. Predictions vs. ProjectionsProjections In the past, demographers have been In the past, demographers have been

incorrect in their predictions. incorrect in their predictions. Fertility rates have declined faster Fertility rates have declined faster

than were expected.than were expected. They now make projections – low, They now make projections – low,

medium, high. medium, high.

Source: United Nations Population Division, 2003