The Future of the Tropical Forests of Amazonia

Carlos A. NobreMinistry of Science, Technology and Innovation of Brazil

UNESCOParis, 9 December 2014.

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The Amazon in the ‘Anthropocene’: The 'Great Amazonian’ Acceleration

Brondizio 2013

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Risks to the Natural Systems in AmazoniaRisks to the Natural Systems in Amazonia

Does the 'great acceleration ’ globally and regionally pose a risk to the ecosystems of Amazonia? 

Forestsp rovide important economic and ecological services …

5

© Celestia

Amazonian Ecosystems Service• Maintenance of global carbon cycle (15% of global  N

for anthropogenic CO2)• Powerful hydrology (20% of fresh water flow into the glob• Biodiversity richness (> 10% of species)• Climate stabilization (key heat source for the atmosphere)

• Helps to maintain cultural and etnic diversity (ovepopulations, language diversity)

04.Feb.2013 06:00 UTC

6

Amazon Biomass is increasing over time

(green arrows)

Is this a CO2“fertilization” effect?

Phillips et al. 2009 Science

Amazon: a sink of about 0.5 ton C/ha/year              over 350 MtonC/year

But, the reality of agriculturalexpansion in the Amazon is 

one of fire and forest destruction …

Ecosystems of Amazonia ‐ environmental drivers of change

Land CoverChange

FireClimateChange

ClimateExtremes

Complex Earth System Models are needed to study all these interacting and simultaneous drivers

Anthropogenic and Natural Drivers of Environmental Change in Amazonia

GLOBAL WARMINGWarming of 0.8°C in Amazonia (Victoria et al., 2004. J Climate);  3°‐4°C by 2100 (IPCC AR5, 2013)!

Can global warming have a discernible effect in the Amazon?

Projected distribution of natural biomes in South America for 2090‐2099 from 15 AOGCMsfor the A2 emissions scenarios, calculated by using CPTEC‐INPE PVM.

Consequences of Climate Change on the Biome distribution in Tropical South America

Salazar, Nobre et al., 2007 GRL

Model Projections: Tropical rainforest will be replaced by 

savannah!18% to 48% by the end of 

the 21st Century

What is going on right now in terms of climate variability and change in the Amazon?

Rio Manaquiri, a 150 km de Manaus

2005

2010 2014

2012

Record‐breaking droughts (2005, 2010)and floods (2009, 2012, 2014)

Is this an expected manifestation of natural climate variability?

Or could it be an early sign of climate change due to global warming?

What is going on right now in terms of climate variability and change in the Amazon?

Rio Manaquiri, a 150 km de Manaus

2005

2010 2014

2012

Record‐breaking droughts (2005, 2010)and floods (2009, 2012, 2014)

Changes in extreme flow in Amazon River (medium confidence, major 

contribution from climate change) (IPCC/ WGIIAR5, 2014)

Total deforested area (clear‐cutting) is 765,000 km2

in  Brazilian Amazonia (20%) (INPE, 2014)

Anthropogenic and Natural Drivers of Environmental Change in Amazonia

DROUGHTS FOREST FIRES

DEFORESTATIONGLOBAL WARMING

Warming of 0.8°C in Amazonia (Victoria et al., 2004. J Climate);  3°‐4°C by 2100 (IPCC AR5, 2013)!

Forest fire frequency ↑ (Nepstad et al., 2006)

What are the synergistic effect of global warming + deforestation + 

fires?

Tropical Seasonal Forest

Savannah

Tropical Evergreen Forest

Projected distribution of natural biomes in South America

Source: Sampaio et al., 2014, unpublished.

more than 2/3 of the models used ≥ 6 models) coincide for 2050 from 9 Earth System Models for the RCP 8.5 emission scenarios

Climate Change Scenario of IPCC AR5 (RCP8.5) in 2050

Combined EffectsClimate Change + Deforestation + Fire + CO2 ‘Fertilization’ (25%)

Deforestation at  20%  + Fire effect

Forest

Savannah

20% Def.+ Fire

=

+

CO2 ‘Fertilization’ Effect at 25%

+

Fraction of the remaining forest area for the entire AmazoniaClimate change projections – CMIP5 – 9 Earth System Models (ESM)

2025 20252050 2050Source: Sampaio et al., 2014, unpublished.

20%

40%

50%

DEFOR.ONLY

CC ONLY2050

RCP 2.6

RCP 4.5

RCP 8.5

CC+20% Defor.+Fire2050

RCP 2.6

RCP 4.5

RCP 8.5

Projected reductions of over  50%  of Forest cover by 2050!

IPCC AR5 WGII, 2014

Maximum speeds at which species can move across landscapes

Based on observations and models; vertical axis on left and compared with speeds at which temperatures are 

projected to move across landscapes (climate 

velocities for temperature; vertical axis 

on right).Trees can move only a few km per decade  and would be 'outraced’ by the climate change velocity

(for Amazonia, at least 20 km/decade for RCP 4.5)

Tropical forest in equilibrium with currentclimate: one stableequilibrium state

Savanna state triggered by climate change and/ordeforestation: two stableequilibrium states

Stability of savanna enhanced by increased droughts and fires

‘Tipping points’ in Amazonia

Environmental variation

Eq

uili

bri

um

stat

es

Cardoso and Borma, 2010Borma, Nobre and Cardoso, 2013

Quantifying ‘Tipping points’ in AmazoniaBi‐stability with two stable states:

Forest and forest‐savanna

ΔT > 3.5 CDeforest. > 40%

ObservationsΔT ≈ 1 C

Deforestation ≈ 20%Lengthening of dry season (?)

Dubreuil et al, Environ Monit Assess (2012) 184:877–891 

DecemberJanuaryFebruary

MarchAprilMay

JuneJuly

August

SeptemberOctoberNovember

32 years

Decreasing trends for the SON period, i.e., the end of the dry season and the

beginning of the rainy season.

REGIONAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS: TEMPERATURE CHANGE FOR THE AMAZON

December‐February Temperature Change for the Amazon

June ‐August Temperature Change for the Amazon

For high emission scenarios, temperature

Increase exceeds 4 C in the Amazon

‘Tipping points’ in AmazoniaBi‐stability with two stable states:

Forest and forest‐savanna

ΔT > 3.5 CDeforest. > 40%

Even if tropical countries cut deforestation to zero, 

uncheked global warming will wreak havoc to the Amazon forest!

Three different methods have been used to estimate land‐use change emissions, indicated here by different shades of greySource: CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Fossil fuel emissions continue to go up …

% of  land‐use change emissions to global emissions: 36% in 1960, 19% in 1990, 8% in 2013

Total global emissions: 39.4 ± 3.4 GtCO2in 2013, 42% over 1990

Science‐police interface for reducing deforestation

Global Fossil Fuel and Land Use Change Emissions of GHG

Policies to reduce Amazon Deforestation

PRODES/INPE

2004Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the 

Legal Amazon (PPCDAM).Coordinated activities among government agencies;

Introduction of real‐time remote‐sensing forest monitoring technology

Extensive expansion of protected territories.

2008Targeting of priority municipalities ‐

prevention, monitoring, and combating of illegal deforestation 

Revision of legislation ‐ environmental infractions and respective sanctions.

Conditioning of rural credit.

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Deforestatio

n rates  (k

m2 /year)

Years

2004 2008

Source:  Assunção et al. (2012)

4848

Annual deforestation rates in Brazilian Amazon

US$ 20 a 70 per ha/year US$ 100 to 400 per ha/25‐ to 30‐year cycle

US$ 100 to 200 per ha/year

US$  2.000 to 2.400 per ha (at US$ 20 per ton C)

REDD

CATTLESELECTIVE LOGGING

SOYA

Net profitability of current economic activities in the Amazon and versus the potential for REDD

Decoupling agricultural production and deforestation

1990s

2000so Annual deforestation trends began  to diverge from fluctuations in cropland 

area and cattle herd size. 

o Deforestation in all Brazilian biomes plunged to the lowest rates sincemonitoring began.

o Nevertheless, the link between agricultural expansion and deforestation hasweakened rather than disappeared completely ‐ as the small resurgence inAmazonian deforestation in 2008 by increases in cropland area and cattleherd size.

o Agricultural expansion and deforestation rates: both processes have long been connected in Brazil. 

o Peaks in cropland area and cattle herd size coinciding withpeaks in deforestation in Amazonia and in the Cerrado region.

Deforestation is the main cause of unsustainability of agriculture

Macedo et al., 2012 - PNA

Example: Decoupling of deforestation and soy production in the southern Amazon during the late 2000s

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Price (R$)

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Meat

Mato Grosso

Tocantins

Pará

Historical agricultural commodities prices in Brazilian Amazon

(2004‐2013)

Source:http://www.agrolink.com.br/cotacoes/

Historico.aspxObs: Adjusted prices with IPCA index 

using 2010 as the base year

Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação Secretaria de Políticas e Programas de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento

Coordenação Geral de Mudanças Globais de Clima 

Gross emissions by sector

Emissions of 2,36 billion ton ofCO2eq in 2005 

Emissions of 1,52 billion ton ofCO2eq in 2012 

14%

2%3%

18%

63%

29%

3%

6%

29%

32%

Energy Waste Treatment Industrial Process Agriculture Land use and forests

Land Use andForest

Energy

Agriculture

OBSERVED Deforested Area (%) in 2010

Scenario A Sustainability?

declining deforestation rates

Scenario B Fragmentation?

weakening of policy of recent years

Aguiar et al., 2013

Modeling gives a glimpse of the potential land use change dynamics up to 2050

Which future do we want for the Amazon?

Model Projectionsin 2050

Payment for Environmental Services (e.g., REDD+)Conserving Forests Through Periodic Grants: “Bolsa Floresta”, Amazonas State, Brazil

How to use Amazon biodiversity sustainably and at the same time benefiting the local population?

Natural dye indicator for dental plaque

Economic output of açaí to Amazonia = US$ 2.5 billion/year

The Açaí Case

Net Economic Net Return of Açaí Production in the Amazon Basin Pará State : US$ 206.6  to US$ 2,272.7 ha/yr (for managed and unmanaged sites)

Jardim and Anderson (1987)Hiraoka (1994a, 1994b) Brondizio, E.  (2007)

$0

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US$

/ha

of fr

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n

Adding value through the commodity chain 1 hectare equivalent of açaí fruit

Exhibit ‘Acai: from local to global’: Mathers Museum of World Cultures, Indiana University

Local benefits, but value aggregation away from the region 

Brondízio, 2014.

Regional resource economies do not translate into revenue for municipalities

• … the pressure on social services, climate change impact, health vulnerability, and pollution is felt up close and where concrete solutions are demanded

Source: NYT

Source: Google

Brondízio, 2014.

HDI

Low HDI in açaíproducing 

municipalities

We need a new economic sustainability paradigmfor the tropical forests...

“ To add value to the heartof the forest”. Bertha Becker

Science and technology must offer solutions for theemergence of an innovative, local bioindustry

Along with empowerment and masseducation of the forest people.  

Merci!Thank you!

Duration of dry season (months) in the Arc of Deforestation Region.

100 mm/month 100 mm/month 

Marengo et al. (2011)Marengo et al. (2011)

Hovmoller diagram of monthly rainfall from 1951‐2010 for southern Amazon.

Hovmoller diagram of monthly rainfall from 1951‐2010 for southern Amazon.

IPCC/AR5: CMIP3 models and downscaling experiments show over southern Amazonia, northeastern Brazil and eastern Amazonia, the maximum number of consecutive 

dry days tends to augment, suggesting a longer dry season.

75°W‐50°W, 15°S‐5°S

Madeira River Flood, SW Amazon,  2014

1426

15801670

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2000

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2400

Water

Level(cm

)Madeira River Water Levels at Porto Velho

2014 cota de alertacota de transbordamento 1997Média (2008‐2013) Mínimo (2008‐2013)

2014 hydrographPeak flows of 65,000 m3/s

1997

Maximum(2008‐2013)

overflow

Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação Secretaria de Políticas e Programas de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento

Coordenação Geral de Mudanças Globais de Clima 

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Tg CO

2eq

Brazilian GHG gross emissions: Period 1990-2012in CO2eq

Tg = million ton . GWP CH4: 21; GWP N2O: 310

Land use and forests

Agriculture

Energy

Energy Waste Treatment Industrial Process Agriculture Land use and forests

REGIONAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS: PRECIPITATION CHANGE FOR THE AMAZON

Global terrestrial carbon sink is dominated by Tropical Forests41

~30% goes into terrestrial ecosystems

~50% of anthropogenic CO2 remainsin the atmosphere

Le Quéré et al. 2009 Nature Geoscience; Schimel et al. 2014 PNAS

‐80 ‐40 0 40 80Latitude

Net CO2flu

x (190

1‐2010, kgC/m

2 /y

‐4 ‐

‐3 ‐

‐2 ‐

‐1 ‐

Carbon sink islargest in the 

Tropics

Three different methods have been used to estimate land‐use change emissions, indicated here by different shades of greySource: CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Fossil fuel emissions continue to go up, but emissions from 

tropical land‐use change are declining.

% of  land‐use change emissions to global emissions: 36% in 1960, 19% in 1990, 8% in 2013

Total global emissions: 39.4 ± 3.4 GtCO2 in 2013, 42% over 1990

Science police interface for reducing deforestation

Land Use Change Emissions of GHG