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Silicon & Wafer
Solar cell & Module
Thin film module
Semiconductor
Silicon & Wafer
Solar cell & Module
Thin film module
Semiconductor
Matthias Großmann Market & Technology Research, centrotherm photovoltaics AG
The Future of the Solar Industry
2© centrotherm photovoltaics AG 22nd March 2012 - The Future of the Solar Industry – Ecosummit Berlin
Disclaimer
We have exercised utmost care in the preparation of this presentation. It contains forecasts and/or information relating to forecasts. Forecasts are based on facts, expectations, and/or past figures. As with all forward-looking statements, forecasts are connected with known and unknown uncertainties, which may mean the actual result deviates significantly from the forecast. Forecasts prepared by third parties, or data or evaluations used by third parties and mentioned in this communication, may be inappropriate, incomplete, or falsified. We cannot assess whether information, evaluations, or forecasts made by third parties are appropriate, complete, and not misleading. To the extent that information in this presentation has been taken from third parties, or these provide the basis of our own evaluations, such use is made known in this report. As a result of the above-mentioned circumstances, we can provide no warranty regarding the correctness, completeness, and up-to-date nature of information taken, and declared as being taken, from third parties, as well as for forward-looking statements, irrespective of whether these derive from third parties or ourselves.
Rounding differences may arise.
Silicon & Wafer
Solar cell & Module
Thin film module
Semiconductor
Contents
1. centrotherm photovoltaics at a glance2. The state of the PV market: Present & future3. New technologies enabling cost reduction4. Summary
Silicon & Wafer
Solar cell & Module
Thin film module
Semiconductor
4© centrotherm photovoltaics AG 22nd March 2012 - The Future of the Solar Industry – Ecosummit Berlin
Facts and figures
Leading technology & equipment provider for the PV industry
Pioneer and market leader in turnkey solutions
Only provider of turnkey solutions along the entire PV value chain
Strong focus on R&D
Top position in growth markets
2011 2010 2009 2008 2007Employees: 1,9461 1,448 1,131 1,050 178Sales in mio €: 698.5 624 509 375 166EBIT in mio €: -19.8 75 37 43 21
1 Q3: as of September 30th, 2011
5© centrotherm photovoltaics AG 22nd March 2012 - The Future of the Solar Industry – Ecosummit Berlin
Advantages for centrotherm customers
Basis for innovative products @ centrotherm:
Large internal R&D resources for equipment and process development
Close cooperation with research institutes
Cutting edge technology and equipment ensures competitive PV manufacturing premium efficiencies, throughputs, yields, etc.
Single point of contact for consulting over the entire value chain
Ingot Wafer Cell ModuleMg Silicon Poly Si
Silicon & Wafer
Solar cell & Module
Thin film module
Semiconductor
Contents
1. centrotherm photovoltaics at a glance2. The state of the PV market: Present & future3. New technologies enabling cost reduction4. Summary
Silicon & Wafer
Solar cell & Module
Thin film module
Semiconductor
7© centrotherm photovoltaics AG 22nd March 2012 - The Future of the Solar Industry – Ecosummit Berlin
Electric power
Solar / Photovoltaics (PV)
Solar
Solarthermal
Solar thermal collector
Solar thermal power plant
(CSP)
Concentrated photovoltaics
(CPV)
Photovoltaics (PV)
Crystalline silicon (c-Si) photovoltaics
Thin Film Photovoltaics
Source: BSW Solar
Source: EPIA/ SoitecSource: BSW Solar
Installed capacity by 2010 < 2 GW < 40 MW ca. 40 GW < 5 GW
Crystalline silicon has dominated the solar market and will dominate it in the future
8© centrotherm photovoltaics AG 22nd March 2012 - The Future of the Solar Industry – Ecosummit Berlin
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Q1
´05
Q2
´05
Q3
´05
Q4
´05
Q1
´06
Q2
´06
Q3
´06
Q4
´06
Q1
´07
Q2
´07
Q3
´07
Q4
´07
Q1
´08
Q2
´08
Q3
´08
Q4
´08
Q1
´09
Q2
´09
Q3
´09
Q4
´09
Q1
´10
Q2
´10
Q3
'10
Q4
'10
Q1
´11
Q2
´11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11p
Q1
´12e
PV industry weighted avg. profitability (gross-margin)
* time-series excl. extraordinary items such as impairment charges (indicated by gross margins of less than minus 40%)
Avg. gross margin 18.5%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Q
1 ´0
5Q
2 ´0
5Q
3 ´0
5Q
4 ´0
5Q
1 ´0
6Q
2 ´0
6Q
3 ´0
6Q
4 ´0
6Q
1 ´0
7Q
2 ´0
7Q
3 ´0
7Q
4 ´0
7Q
1 ´0
8Q
2 ´0
8Q
3 ´0
8Q
4 ´0
8Q
1 ´0
9Q
2 ´0
9Q
3 ´0
9Q
4 ´0
9Q
1 ´1
0Q
2 ´1
0Q
3 '1
0Q
4 '1
0Q
1 ´1
1Q
2 ´1
1Q
3 '1
1Q
4 '1
1pQ
1 ´1
2e
Aggregated industry utilization
Industry peer-group: PV manufacturers
Industry peer-group points to a recovery in Q1’12
Severity of downturn not comparable to the shake-out in Q4’08-Q2’09
Gradual increases in the gross margin induce further expansions by leading producers
Company data, centrotherm photovoltaics AG - MTR
Company data, centrotherm photovoltaics AG - MTR
9© centrotherm photovoltaics AG 22nd March 2012 - The Future of the Solar Industry – Ecosummit Berlin
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,528
.10.
2009
28.1
2.20
09
28.0
2.20
10
28.0
4.20
10
28.0
6.20
10
28.0
8.20
10
28.1
0.20
10
28.1
2.20
10
28.0
2.20
11
28.0
4.20
11
28.0
6.20
11
28.0
8.20
11
28.1
0.20
11
28.1
2.20
11
28.0
2.20
12
$/W
p
high end Si-Module per Watt low end Si-Module per Watt
High-end modules recoup premiums
PVinsights.com, centrotherm photovoltaics AG - MTR
The spread between low- and high-end modules increased
High-end module producers seem to be better shielded against pricing pressure
10© centrotherm photovoltaics AG 22nd March 2012 - The Future of the Solar Industry – Ecosummit Berlin
PV has by far the highest cost reduction potential
Source: FhG ISE Study, Stromgestehungskosten Erneuerbare Energien
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
€/kWh 0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0
Electricity mix fossilWind onshore (2000 full load hours)Wind offshore (3600 full load hours)CSP with storage (2000 kWh/m²)PV ground mounted (2000 kWh/m²)PV small (1100 kWh/m²)
PV
External view on electricity generation cost depending on power plant location (€/kWh):
In Europe electricity generation cost from PV will be cheaper than fossil mix before 2020, even if the higher environmental risk of fossil and nuclear electricity generation is not taken into account.
11© centrotherm photovoltaics AG 22nd March 2012 - The Future of the Solar Industry – Ecosummit Berlin
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,10
0,12
0,14
0,16
0,18
0,20
0,22
1.000 1.100 1.200 1.300 1.400 1.500 1.600 1.700 1.800 1.900 2.000PV system yield [kWh/kWp]
Elec
tric
ity g
ener
atio
n co
sts
[€/k
Wh] 1.800€/kWp 2.000 €/kWp
PV electricity production cost < 0,10 €/kWh
Example India:System price: 2.000 €/kWpca.1.780 kWh/kWpSystem lifetime 25 years
India< 0,10 €/kWh
12© centrotherm photovoltaics AG 22nd March 2012 - The Future of the Solar Industry – Ecosummit Berlin
PV electricity becomes more & more competitive all over the world (assumption: PV system price of 2 €/Wp)
Source: www.meteonorm.com
Southern Germany14 €Ct/kWh
Northern Africa< 10 €Ct/kWh
California< 10 €Ct/kWh
India< 10 €Ct/kWh
Established markets Compensating markets
Italy:2011: 7-8 GW2012: 3-5 GW
Germany:2011: 7,5 GW2012: 4-5 GW
USA:2011: 2,0-2,5 GW2012: > 3 GW
India:2011: 0,3 - 0,5 GW2012: > 1,5 GW
China:2011: 2,0-2,5 GW2012: > 4 GW
Japan:2011: 1,1 -1,4 GW2012: > 3 GW
13© centrotherm photovoltaics AG 22nd March 2012 - The Future of the Solar Industry – Ecosummit Berlin
Decade of change: From subsidized to unsubsidized self- sustaining market
0
50
100
150
200
Installed PVPower (GW)
20202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
subsidizedunsubsidized
Transition phaseIRR driven„earning money
phase“
€/kWh driven„saving money phase“
Source: centrotherm
photovoltaics AG
Silicon & Wafer
Solar cell & Module
Thin film module
Semiconductor
Contents
1. centrotherm photovoltaics at a glance2. The state of the PV market: Present & future3. New technologies enabling cost reduction4. Summary
Silicon & Wafer
Solar cell & Module
Thin film module
Semiconductor
15© centrotherm photovoltaics AG 22nd March 2012 - The Future of the Solar Industry – Ecosummit Berlin
Technology distribution of PV installations
4% 4%8%
77%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
5,0 ...7,5% 7,5 …9,5% 9,5 …13 % 13 ….17% 17 … 21%
Prod
uctio
n vo
lum
e 20
10 [%
]
Estimate: CT Market&Technology Research
High-Efficiency c-Si
CdTe + CIGSa-Si tandem, triple …a-Si
c-Si
Estimate: centrotherm Market & Technology Research
DominatingGW-scale producers
Many producerslow price segment
IncreasingDifferentiatefrom large a-Sisegment
Low cost, BUT: niche market High efficiency, BUT: risk of non–competitive cost
High efficiency TF + mainstream c-Si = optimum
Efficiency (%)
High price segment
Strategy: Position centrotherm turnkey customer in the top segment (i.e. module power) of the major market. In combination with competitive CoO: „Best-in-class“.
16© centrotherm photovoltaics AG 22nd March 2012 - The Future of the Solar Industry – Ecosummit Berlin
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1000.0 10000.0
cumulated produced PV (GWp)
aver
age
mod
ule
pric
e (€
/Wp)
1976
1986
2004: Fit change in Germany
Demand > Supplyand silicon shortage
- temporary price increase -
history scenario
2009:>30% price decline ~2€/Wp
version 1.4
2011: Considerable decrease in prices
Reduction of Material costGlass, laminate, pastes,
process gas, chemicals, ...
„Economy of Scale“Invest equipment, building & facility,
material purchase, …
PV learning curve: Contributions to cost degression
TechnologyEfficiency, wafer thickness,
utilization, process-sequence, …
ProductivityThroughput, uptime, yield, utilization
learning curve, automation, …
PV learning curve and extrapolation
8 – 10 % reduction per year Source: centrotherm Market & Technology Research
17© centrotherm photovoltaics AG 22nd March 2012 - The Future of the Solar Industry – Ecosummit Berlin
Solar cell efficiency roadmap: Key to cost reduction
The Solar Cell converts light into electricity and thus is the heart of a PV system.
A roadmap to increase cell efficiency in mass production is the major cost driver in €/Wp.
18© centrotherm photovoltaics AG 22nd March 2012 - The Future of the Solar Industry – Ecosummit Berlin
Single factories vs. integrated manufacturing
MG Silicon Plant
Polysilicon plant
Power plantSolar academy
Ingoting
Solar cell line
Wafering
Module line
Administration
Singlefactories
Polysilicon plant Ingoting & Wafering Solar cell line Module line +Administration
Integratedfactory
Integration offers lower OPEX and CAPEX, better performance, etc.
19© centrotherm photovoltaics AG 22nd March 2012 - The Future of the Solar Industry – Ecosummit Berlin
Average Production cost [€/Wp ]
Schematics for CoO at SAT: “Best-in-class for ct-customers”
Production costs €/Wp
Productionvolume
Competitive production
Production volume meeting demand overcapacity
Shake out of non-competitive production
new entrant using centrotherm technology & equipment directly at SAT
PV manufacturersProduction
volume [MW]
Manufacturer x
Further Improvement of competitiveness by:- economy of scale.- learning curve etc.
Demand
Silicon & Wafer
Solar cell & Module
Thin film module
Semiconductor
Contents
1. centrotherm photovoltaics at a glance2. The state of the PV market: Present & future3. New technologies enabling cost reduction4. Summary
Silicon & Wafer
Solar cell & Module
Thin film module
Semiconductor
21© centrotherm photovoltaics AG 22nd March 2012 - The Future of the Solar Industry – Ecosummit Berlin
Summary
Peer-group of industry-leading (integrated) manufacturers suggest that a through in key performance indicators (utilization, gross margin) has been crossed in Q4‘2011
The PV industry has entered a transitional period, in which demand from unsubsidized markets will gradually increase, while the dependency on subsidy- scheme driven markets decreases
PV technology offers very compelling cost reduction potentials, especially in direct comparison with alternative forms of power generation (competitiveness will „diffuse“ northwards with learning-curve induced cost degressions)
The PV market is expected to grow with a satisfactory CAGR over the foreseeable future (underlying installation estimates imply a PV contribution of ~4% to global electricity consumption in 2020)
Crystalline silicon based technologies dominate the market and this situation is expected to be solidified over the medium- to long-term
22© centrotherm photovoltaics AG 22nd March 2012 - The Future of the Solar Industry – Ecosummit Berlin
Contact
Thank you for your attention!
Contact: Dipl.-Kfm. Matthias Großmann, CFA, FRMManager Market & Technology Researchcentrotherm photovoltaics AGJohannes-Schmid-Strasse 889143 BlaubeurenTel +49 (0)7344 9188-853Fax +49 (0)7344 [email protected]
