The Federal R&D Budget: Overview and Outlook

Matt HourihanFebruary 5, 2014for the Society of Research Administrators International

AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/spp/rd

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

DefenseDiscretionary

NondefenseDiscretionary

Mandatory

Net Interest

Federal Spending as a Percent of GDP, 1962 - 2018

Source: Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2014.© 2013 AAAS

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Federal R&D in the Budget and the EconomyOutlays as share of total, 1962 - 2014

R&D as a Shareof the FederalBudget (LeftScale)

R&D as a Shareof GDP (RightScale)

Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2014. FY 2013 data do not reflect sequestration. FY 2014 is the President's request.© 2013 AAAS

*Keep in mind… Department of Defense development activities have

declined more than everything else

-16.0%

-13.4%

-14.8%

8.5%

-20.3%

-20.9%

18.9%

18.3%

-30% -10% 10% 30%

Defense Activities

Health (NIH)

Space*

General Science (NSF, DOE SC)

Agriculture

Environment Agencies

Commerce (NIST)

Applied Energy Programs

R&D Change by Budget Function, 2004-2013Percent change from FY 2004 in constant dollars, post-sequestration

* To avoid comparability challenges, "Space" refers to total NASA budget authority rather than R&D spending. It does not include Aeronautics, which is in the "Transportation" function, not shown.Source: AAAS analysis of historical data and current R&D data, agency budget justifications and other budget documents. Select DHS programs were categorized in Defense and General Science in prior years; the above data have been adjusted for comparability.© 2013 AAAS

Recent R&D Budget History R&D down by 8.4 percent between FY10 and FY12

August 2011: Budget Control Act AAAS estimated ~$50 billion R&D cuts in first 5

years

January 2013: American Taxpayer Relief Act

FY 2013: Sequester cuts nearly $10 billion more

Summer 2013: Appropriators operate under two different spending baselines

December 2013 budget deal: 50% sequester rollback for FY14

Department of Defense

DOD R&D cut, but not to S&T programs Basic research at all-time high Nanotechnology, materials

science DARPA: small from FY12 Medical research BIG increase

NIH Continuing stagnation

Most institutes about halfway between sequester and FY12

Largest increases: National Institute on Aging, NCATS Translational medicine,

Alzheimer’s research, BRAIN Initiative, National Children’s Study

Success rates down to 16.8 percent in FY13

Department of Energy Generally good news Science: much closer to Senate

mark Advanced Computing and

Fusion (especially domestic research)

Energy Frontier Research Centers at $100 million

Clean energy programs (EERE, ARPA-E) avoid the guillotine

NNSA R&D also picked up significant funding

DOE R&D at all-time high

NASA Positive outcomes for Science,

Exploration Planetary Science avoids

deeper cuts; Europa Mission? Largest increase for Webb

Telescope Skepticism toward asteroid

mission Clear commitment to next-

generation flights systems, also commercial spaceflight

Aeronautics, Space Tech flat

National Science Foundation Lower number than other

agencies, about even with FY12 Appropriator support for ocean

research, cybersecurity, advanced manufacturing R&D, neuroscience

Social Sciences research restrictions lifted

Large Synoptic Survey Telescope to commence construction

Likely to fall short of COMPETES Act doubling target

USDA Another good outcome Intramural R&D: Request

matched Minus poultry research center

Extramural R&D: closer to Dems than GOP Big boost for AFRI

Forest Service dodges cuts Farm Bill establishes ag

research foundation

Other notes Environmental agencies (EPA, USGS) come up short

DHS got (mostly) what it wanted

NIST not looking bad

Patient outcomes research (via Obamacare) not funded

TOTAL

GDP

Looking ahead… President’s budget to be released March 4, for now

Priorities: manufacturing, clean energy, climate, IT and computing, biological innovation, neuroscience, STEM Ed

Discretionary spending limit in FY 2015 has already been agreed And will increase hardly at all 25% of sequester reductions rolled back

Big-picture fiscal challenges remain largely unchanged

Beyond FY 2015: back to sequester levels

Current Politics: The “Pong” Model?

Cut spending!

Raise revenues!

The science and innovation budget

Obviously, a very facile oversimplification…!

For more info…mhouriha@aaas.org202-326-6607www.aaas.org/spp/rd/