) . 6,N,i.2. 14513TheEndoftheProduct Life Cycle?Education
SaysGoodbyetoanOld
FriendLaurieWoodUniversityoJSatjordThispaperre-evaluates
the'oldfavourite^ofmarketingeducation,theProductLifeCycle concept.
Anumberofproblems
areidentifiedincludingthecontrastofthetheoryWithempiricalresearchandwiderange
ofPLC(ProductLifeCycle)
patternswhichhavebeenidentifiedbyresearchers.7 hispaperconcludes
thatthePLCconcept
has,perhaps,outliveditsownlifecyclehaving,initsday,providedamefulserviceparticularlytomarketing
educators.INTRODUCTIONNomarketingprofessionalshouldbeunfamiiiarwiththeProductLileCycle(PLC).Itslogicalsequenceandbiologicalanalogyhavegainedanenduringappealamongstmarketingacademicsandmanagersovertheyears,untilithasnowbecomeacceptedasa"core"conceptofmarketingmanagementtheory.Despiteincreasingcriticism,thekeyconceptremains.Inareviewoftherelevantliterature,thispaper.seekstoprovideacriticalappraisalofPLCtheory,andtoexaminethevalueofthispervasiveconceptineducatingourfuturemarketingmanagersintothenextcentury.Itargue.sthat,sincemarketingitselfis
anadaptiveconcept,inattemptingtoadaptPLCtheorytoitsbroadeningbasewehavebeenguiltyof"product"orientation{PLCmyopia).ThispaperconcludesthatthePLCconcepthasoutliveditsownlifecycle,and.shouldthereforebemanagedaccordingtoitsowndogma.AHISTORICALPERSPECTIVEFORTHEUNINITIATEDThePLCismodelledonthefixedcycleofbirth-growth-maturity-death,throughwhichhigherlivingorganismspass(Tellis1981).Smallwood(1973)consideredthePLCconcepttobetbemarketingequivalentoftheperiodictableofelementsconceptsinthephysicalsciences,althoughitismorelikely145146LAURIEWOODIniro-duel
ionGrowth MalufityTimeFKiUREIThe
verticalscaleisihcsalesvalue,whilethehorizontalsralriscalibratedtorepresentthepassageoftime.thatits
originsarerootedineconomictheory,documentedas earlyas
1934bySchumpeter.Thiscombinationof
scientificrationalederivedfrombiology,chemistryandeconomicsservedtoenhancethelegitimacyofmarketingasaprofession(Levitt1965),andhasendowedtheconceptwithanenduringappeal.TheClassicalModelisanS-shapedcurvetypifiedbyfour/fivestagesofproductintroduction-growth-maturity/.saturation-dcciine,asillustratedbelow:MarketingteachingwouldhistoricallylinkthePLCtotheEverettRogers'DiffusionofInnovationsmodel(Rogers1962),and/ortaketheLevittapproach(Levitt1965),indescribingtbe
lifecyclesof
mostsucce.s.sfulproductsintermsoftheirsequentialpassagethroughfour/fivestages.Earlyexplanationsoftheproductlifecycleconcept(Kotler1967)presentedtbetheoryin
fairlysimpleterms,as
amarketingmanagementtoolforconsumerbrandedproducts,viz;Stage1:
IntroductionTheproductis
putontbemarket;awarenessandacceptanceareminimal.Stage2:
GrowthTbeproductbeginstomakerapidsalesgainsbecauseofthecumulativeeffectsofintroductorypromotion,distribution,andword-of-moutbinfluence.THEEND
OF THE
PRODUCTLIFECYCLE147Stage3:Maturity/SaturationSalesgrowtbcontinuesbutatadecliningratebecauseofthediminishingnumberof
potentialcustomerswho remainunawareof theproductor whobavetakenno
action.Salesreacbandremainonaplateaumarkedby
tbelevelofreplacementdemand.Stage4: DeclineSalesbeginto
diminishabsolutelyasthe productis graduallyedgedout
bybetterproductsorsubstitutes.Accordingtotheclassicaltheory,profitspeakinthegrowthstage,leveloff,andthenbegindecliningduringthematuritystage.Fromthistheory,we
learnthat;Productshavealimitedlife.Transitionfromone
stagetoanotherisusuallysequential.Eachstagerepresentsdifferentprofitlevels,differentopportunitiesandthreats,anddifferentstrategiesforacompany.Tbisisanimportantconceptinmarketing,providinginsigbtsintoaproduct'scompetitivedynamics(Kotler1967}.Despiteacceptedlimitationsof
tbe concept,evenatthisperiodtbattbelengtbofthe
productlifecycleandits
stageswerebynomeansfixed,andthattheshapeoftbeeurvemaydepartfromtbeS-.shapedcurve^itwasslillpresentedasausefulidealizationofallproductlifehistories(Patten1959).Widelyacceptedinmarketingcircles,but,paradoxically,littleusedas
amarketingtool,itwas Levitt,in1965, wbo
attemptedtobreatbesomelifeintothe conceptwhichbe describedas,
"aseeminglyunemployablepiece
ofprofessionalbaggage"byoutliningstrategiesforcontrollingormanagingtbelifecycleateacbstage(Levitt1965).ThekeyuseoftbePLC
waspresentedasapredictivetooltoforecastmarketingrequirementsandtoassistintheplanningof
longtermproductstrategiesbeforetheinevitablestageoftheproductlifearrived.IPLCEMPIRICALRESEARCHOverthe
years,researchattemptsto validateorrefutetbe
lifecycleeoneeptonanempiricalbasisbavebeenconstrainedbytwofactors:(a)tbelackof
definitionastowbich"life"we
areactuallyinvestigatingand,(b)tbecomplicationsofempiricalresearcbintbatbytrackingsalestrendsovertime,weinevitablyobservetheeffectsofmanagementstrategiesontbelifecycleitself.Witbregardtothefirstproblem,itisevidentfromtheliteraturetbatdilTerentauthorsbavedifferentperceptionsoftheconcept.Totakejusta148LAURIEWOODfewe
xa mpl e s ,t heor i gi nale c o n o mi ct he or yr e l a t e dt oi
n d u s t r ylevelcycl es.Levi t t(1965)wr i tesofm a r k e
tlifecycl es,t henpr oc e e dstodi scussb r a n dlifecycl esina nar
t i cl ec o n c e r n i n gtbep r o d u c tlifecycl e.Cox( 1967)i
nves t i gat edtheb r a n d ,whe r e a sPol ha n dCook(
1969)focussedt hei
rresearcbontheproductclass,andtheproductform.Morerecently,Kotler(1988)basdiscussedthePLCwithinthecontextoftbeDemandLifeCycle,theDemand-TechnologyLifeCycleandtheProductCategoryLifeCycle.Itishardlysurprisingwithtbisdisagreement,diversityofdefinitionandconfusionofterminologyamongstacademiestbatnocomparableandsatisfactoryempiricalvalidationofthe"classic"productlifecycleconceptexists.PolliandCook(1969)foundthattheconceptprovidedabetterexplanationofsalesbebaviourofproductformstbanproductclasses.DballaandYuspeb(1976),bywayofcontrast,suggestedthattbeconceptwasoflittleuseinexplainingthebehaviourofproductclasses,evenlessinthecaseofproductformsandbaslittleornorelevanceintbecaseofbrands.Atthesametime,Eni.s,LaGareeandPreli(1977)discussedtbeconceptatbrandlevel,believingthedirectionofproductformsandproductclassestobebeyondmanagementcontrol.Bycontrast,TellisandCrawford(1981)feltthat,"productformsbeartbeclosestapproximationtothePLC,individualbrandsaredifTiculttomodel,andpatternsatthelevelofproductclassarelessapparentbecau.seoflongersalestrendsinvolved".Suchistbelevelofconfusion.Withregardtothesecondproblem,Cox(1967)inastudyof258ethicaldrugbrandsidentifiedsixpatternsoflife-cyclecurves,andfoundtbatforover50"oofthese,afourthdegreepolynomialbestfittbebistoricaldata.1bissuggestedacycle-recyclepatternfortbePLCinwbicbsalesdidnotdeclineaftertbematuritystage,butfollowedtbeoldcycleonceagain.Theprincipalreasonfortbepredominanceofthispatternhoweverwastbeuseofapromotional"tbrust'",whichthestudyrevealedwascommonpracticeintbeindustrywbenproductsreacbedtbematuritystageoftbePLC.Similarly,PolliandCook'sfindings(1969)fromtbeexaminationofover100consumerproductcategoriesintbefood,healthandpersonalcarefieldsindicatedthatonly17".(,productclassesand20",,productformsexhibitedasalesbehaviouressentiallyconsistentwiththeproductlifecycle.(Bysimplearithmeticaldeduction,83",,productclassesand80*^',,productformsdidnotfittbeclassicalPLCshape).FurtherresearchbyWasson(1971)identifiesninevariantstotbePLCresultingfromvariousspecialconditionsasindicated,andmanyotberadditionalshapesbavesincebeen"di.scovercd".TellisandCrawford's(1981)reviewoftwelvepublishedPLCresearchesfoundnolesstbanfifteenvariationsoncurveshape(Figure2).ThedifHcultyliesinisolatingtbe"natural
"lifecyclecurvefromthemarketingefTeetsonsales,whateverthelevelofaggregation.VariationsinthePLCareinevitableifweacceptLevitt'soriginalpremisethattbemainutilityoftheconceptliesinthefactthattheHfe-cyclecanbemanaged.Thelife-cycleitselfmustbeadependentvariable,ifitcanbeTHEENDOFTHEPRODUCl'LIFECYCLE
149(classicalcurve)
Brockhoff(1967)'KovacandDague(1972)*PolliandCook(1969)*Cox(1957)Buzzetl(1966)*'Kluyver(1977)Cunningham(1979)'Hinckle(1966)"'Adapted''MaturitystageonlyFIGURE2DificrcniPLCpatternidentified..Source:TcllisandCrawford(1981),"AnEvoluiionaryApproaihloProductGrowihTheory",JournalofMarketing,Fall.pp.125-132.150
LAURIEWOODSateslogisticexporieniJal4thdegreepolynomialFIGURE3FouralternativeshapesofPLC.Source:
MrenaghanandO'Sullivan(1986),"TheShapeandLcngihoftheProduciLifeCycle",/riskMarketing
Reuiew,
Vol.1,Spring,pp.83-102.shapedbymarketingaction.Enis(1977)concludedthatthePLCistheresult,ratherthanthecause,ofmarketingstrategydecisions.Itisnotasimpledeterministicmodel.MorerecentlyMeenaghanandO'Sullivan(1986)haveattemptedtoconsolidatethesituation,intheirdiscussionofshapeandlengthofPLC,
bypresentingthediversityofcurveshapeintermsoffouralternativepattents.(Figure3).PRACTICALAPPLICATIONOF
THEPLCTheobjectoftheexerciseappearstobetoidentifyone'spositiononthePLC,andthenselectanappropriatestrategy.Forthispurposewearepresentedwitharangeofalternativemixstrategies(Kotter1988,Ennis1977).In1976
DhallaandYuspethrecognizedthedangerofthis"curve-fitting"approachasa"sterileexerciseintaxonomy",yettheapproachcontinuestobeadopted.Themajorproblemisthatinorderforthemodeltohaveanypracticaluse,themarketingmanagerneedstoknowtheanswerstothreekeyquestions(Levitt1965);1.
Givenaproposednew productorservice,how andto whatextent
cantheshapeanddurationofeachstagebepredicted?2.Givenanexistingproduct,how
can one determinewhatstageitisin?3.Givenallthisknowledge,how
canitbeeffectivelyused?THEENDOFTHEPRODUCTLIFECYCLE151Theoverridingdifficultyinansweringanyofthesequestionsliesinthelackofavailableinformation.Kotler'sownstudy(1988)of75companiesofvaryingsizesindifferentindustriesillustratestheprobleminthefollowingpertinentfindings:Fewerthanhalfthecompaniesknowtheprofitabilityoftheirindividualproducts.Aboutone-thirdofthecompanieshavenoregularreviewprocedureforspottinganddeletingweakproducts.Almosthalfofthecompaniesfailtocomparetheirpriceswithcompetition,toanalyzetheirwarehousinganddistributioncosts,toanalyzethecausesofreturnedmerchandise,toconductformalevaluationsofadvertisingeffectiveness,andtoreviewtheirsales-forcecallreports.Also,companiesoftenfailtomonitorthetimingofintroductionsofcompetitorproducts.Ifthisbasicinformationisnotrecordedfortbemarketingfunction,thentheshapeofthecurveisirrelevant.PositioningtheproductonanyPLCcurvebecomesreducedlargelytoamatterofguesswork,rathertbansomethingnearingscientificexactitude.Day(1981)highlightsafurthercomplication.Hepointsoutthattheidentificationofboundariesbetweenstageswillbeaffectedbythevarietyoflifecyclepatterns.Thus,themorevariationsofPLCweidentify,themoredifficultthepositioningprocessbecomes.Alsotheterm"LifeCycle"itselfimpliesacertaininevitabilityandirreversibility,whichiscontrarytotheempiricalevidence.Thisshowsthatproductsmaymoveindifferentsequenceandindifferenttimescalesthroughtheirexistence.Thetransitionfromonestagetoanotheristhereforefarfromclearcut,andthetransitionfrombirthtogrowth,maturityanddeathisfarfrominevitable.Furthermore,byimplantinganexpectationofdeclineinthemindsofmanagers,thePLCitselfmaybecomeaself-fulfillingprophecywithintrinsicallyvaluablebrandsprematurelyaxedfromtheportfolio.IFNOTPRODUCTLIFECYCLETHENWHAT?Day(1981),inaspecialsectionoftheJournalofMarketingdevotedtodiscussingthePLCconcept,refersto;".
. . t
heemergingconcensusthatPLCrepresentstheoutcomeorsummaryofnumerousforcesforchangepresentintherelevantproduct-market,eachforceactinginconcertwithotherstofacilitateorinhibittherateofproductsalesgrowthordecline."In1977,Enishadconcludedthat,astheresultofmarketingstrategydecisions,thePLCwasindirectlydeterminedbyacombinationofinternal152LAURIEWOOD(
p r o d u c t i o n ,finance,per s onnel )c ons i de r a t i ons ,c
o mb i n e dwi t he xt e r na lmi c r oa n dma c r oe n v i r o n
me n t a lf act or s.I nt hemo r er e c e nts t udybyMe e n a g b a
na n d O' S u l l i v a n( 1986) ,t hey t oo,a c c e pt e dt h a ti
nf l uenci ngvar i abl esexi st .Th e s ewer eclassifiedu n d e
rfourbasi ch e a d i n g s ;1.P r o d u c tc ha r a c t e r i s t i
c s .2.T h ema r k e t i n gs t r at egi ese mp l o y e d .3
.Theexternalenvironmentalfactors.4.Marketrelatedfactors.ThekeytounderstandingtheshapeandlengthofthePLCistobefoundnotmerelyinanalyzingthesetsoffactorslistedabove,butperhapsmoreimportantlyintbecurrentandanticipatedinteractionsandrelationshipsoccurringbetweenthevariousfactors.This,ineffect,takesusbacktobasicmarketingprinciplesunderstandthecustomer,understandthebuyingprocessandunderstandthemarket.Onlyifwemoveourstudentsawayfromthedangerous"short-circuitry"ofthePLCand"formula"marketing,canwehopetoengenderapracticalunderstandingoftheunderlyingfactorswhichshapethesalespatternsofproductsovertime.Thedangeris,thatthecontinuedteachingofthePLC"concept"actuallyservestoconstrainmarketingmanagementthinking.THEPROBLEMOFTIMINGItwouldappearthatovertheyears,thePLCconcepthasevolvedalifeofitsown.Fromitsearlybeginningsinthesciencesanditsadoptionbymarketing,itgainedgradualwidespreadacceptancebecauseofitsintrinsicappeal,anditsfairlywideapplication.ThemarketsituationinthelateI950'sandearly196O'swascharacterizedbyafocusonconsumergoodsandbrand/productmanagementinmarketingeducation;unsophisticatedsegmentation(largelygeographicanddemographic);relativelystabletechnology;relativelyuasophisticatedcommunications;manufacturepowerinretaildistribution.Suchwastherelativestabilityoftheenvironment,thatthePLCmodelwasanacceptableaggregateofmarketdynamics,andwasincorporatedintomarketingtextsoftbetimeasoneofthefundamentalprinciplesofmarketing.AcademicwritinglargelysupportedthePLCconcept(Patton1959,Levitt1965,Kotler1967and1988,andCox1967),despitesomeTHEENDOFTHEPRODUCTLIFECYCLE153reservations.Itwaspresentedinqualitativeterms,withsupporteitherfromexamplesdrawnfromsubjectiveexperienceeasilyrelatedtoatthetime(buggywhips,nylon,Scotchtape,Jel
l
-O),orfromempiricalresearchinthefm.c.g.(fastmovingconsumergoods)sector.Withthebroadeningofthemarketingconceptovertime,however,weaknesseshavebecomeincreasinglyevidentinattemptingtouniversallyfittheapplicationofPLCtheorytothespecificareasofhigh-techproducts(TigertandFarivar1981)andconsumerdurables(HarrellandTaylor1981)andtheadditionalareasofindustrialproducts(ThorelliandBurnett1981,RinkandFox1984andBuskirk1986),servicesandNotForProfits(Wilson1988).Inaddition,overtime,thetheoryhasbecomecomplicatedinthejustificationofthemanycriticimslevelledagainstit.Forexample,Kotler(1967),inhisfirstedition,presentedthetheoryinnomorethanfourbriefpages.Now,ineditionsix,afullchapterofthirtypagesneedstobedevotedtotheexplanationandqualificationoftheconcept,anditsrelatedstrategies.Initially,theykeyutilityofthePLCpresentedbyLevitt(1965)wasitsapplicationinforecastingandpre-planning.NowKotler(1988)acceptsthatthevalueofthePLCforforecastingislimited,beingmoreapplicabletohistoricalsalespatternsandperformance,forplanningandcontrol.Thecontroversycontinues.Moreandmore,thePLCconceptisfailingtoperformeffectively.Thevariouslevelsoflife-cyclehavebeenidentifiedas:DemandLifeCyclesDemandTechnologyLifeCyclesIndustryLifeCyclesProductCategoryLifeCyclesProductClassLifeCyclesProductFormLifeCyclesBrandLifeCyclesByreferringtothemanagementandcontrolaspectsofPLCtheory,thentheconceptisbeingrelatedtothebrand/productatthelowestlevelinthishierarchy.Inpresentingthetheorythus,theuseofthePLCasamarketingtoolinevitablyencouragesanunhealthymyopiaandbrand/
productfocus."Therateofchangeinthemodernworldisnowmuchgreaterthanevenafewdecadesago.Newtechnologiesappear,andoldonesdisappearmorequickly,newsocialpatternsformandreform,newroadsandbridgesappearandoldonesdisappearfasterthaneverbefore."(Argenti1974).Argenti'sobservation,writtenoveradecadeago,isevenmorepertinenttoday.Thecomplexanddynamicmarketsoftheeighties,borelittleresemblancetotherelativelysimplydefinedandstablemarketsoftheearly154LAURIEWOODsixties.Iwoul
dcont endt hatast henextcent ur yappr oaches ,t
hePLCwillbaveUttle,ifanyt hi ng,toofferinmar ket i ngeducat i
on.CONCLUSI
ONMarketingisanadaptiveconcept,yetitwouldappearthatinattemptingtoadaptPLCtheoryuniversallytoitsbroadeningbase,we,asmarketeers,mayhavebeenguiltyofPLCmyopia.ThePLCisastochastic,ratherthanadeterministicmodel.Theoverridinglimitationsarenotintrinsicallywiththeproductlifecycleitself,butwiththedangersofengenderingamyopicfocusofthecurveofsalesovertime(whichisitselftheaggregatedresultofmanydiverseeffects)attheriskofignoringevolutionarymarkettrends.Furthermore,inapplyingpre-ordained"formulas"tomarketingsituations,webecomepredictableandout-manouevreableinourmarkets.Originalstrategies,tailoredtoeachindividualsituation,shouldtheoreticallybemoreeffective.YetwecontinuetoincorporateProductLifeCycleconceptsintoourteachingandtexts.Marketingandmanagementtechniquesaredevelopingincreasinglyaroundenvironmentanalysisunderitsmanyguises{environmentalscanning,issueanalysis,issuemanagement,structuralanalysisetc.)Althoughaimedprimarilyatcorporateleveldecision-making,thesameprinciplesofunderstandingapplyatbrand/productlevel.Computer-basedmarketmodellingtechniquesarenowavailabletoprovideamorefiexibleandscientificapproachtosituationanalysisproblems.Itwouldappearthatweinmarketingeducationmayinfactbeguiltyoftheweaknessofsentimentalityincontinuingtosupportourown"sickproduct";"Puttingproductstodeathorlettingthemdi
e s i
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