The Curious Absence of The Curious Absence of New Nuclear New Nuclear

Michael Hoeger Presented 02/06/2012

OutlineOutline• Brief Review of Nuclear Energy• Current Public Opinions • Past Nuclear Accidents• Comparison to Coal• Media and Popular Culture • Economics • Question and Answer Session

Fission OverviewFission Overview

Neutron is Absorbed by 235U

The 235U atom briefly becomes 236U

The 236U Atom Decays into lighter Atoms, Releases Energy, and 3 Neutrons

[1]

Sustaining the ReactionSustaining the Reaction

Uranium 235 Atom Absorbs Neutron

Neutrons Collide with 235U, 238U, or Nothing

Neutron Collision with 235U Produces more Neutrons Continuing the Chain

[2]

How do Most Commercial Nuclear How do Most Commercial Nuclear Reactors Work?Reactors Work?

[3]

Simplified View of a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR)

Public OpinionPublic OpinionNovember 11, 2011November 11, 2011

[7]

Renewing Licenses and Renewing Licenses and Allowing New Construction Allowing New Construction

[7]

Most Support Investment in Most Support Investment in Low-Carbon TechnologiesLow-Carbon Technologies

[7]

Why did the Last Why did the Last Groundbreaking for a Groundbreaking for a Nuclear Plant Occur Nuclear Plant Occur

in in 19741974 ? ?

Two Classical ArgumentsTwo Classical Arguments

Core Damage FrequencyCore Damage Frequency• Likelihood of an accident that causes damage

to a reactor core• Estimated that a core will be damaged in the

United States once every 50,000 reactor years• Globally there are 582 reactors totaling

14,400 reactor years, with a core damage frequency of 1,400 years

Core Damage FrequencyCore Damage Frequency• Clearly reactors are damaged at a rate much

higher than anticipated• However, how many of these incidences were

severe and what was the damage

Three Mile IslandThree Mile Island

[9]

• No immediate deaths• Average exposure of 8 mrems• No person exposed to greater

than 100 mrems

• A chest X-ray is equivalent to 8 mrems• Each person is exposed to 310 mrems annually from natural

background radiation

For ComparisonFor Comparison

ChernobylChernobyl

[10]

• Around 31 immediate deaths• TORCH Report concluded 30,000 to

60,000 premature cancer deaths• Worst nuclear disaster of all time• Highest dose rates around 3000 mrems

per hour near the core

Fukushima Fukushima

[11]

• No immediate deaths• Projected increase in cancer

mortality rate to increase .001% total of 100 to 1000 Deaths

• The tsunami caused up to 16,000 to 20,000 Deaths

• 92.5% Drowned (12,143)• 1.1% Burned (148)• 4.4% Crushed or Fatal Injuries (578)

Relative to TsunamiRelative to Tsunami

[12]

Normal Operating Radiation Normal Operating Radiation LevelsLevels

• The average person is exposed to 13 mrems living within a 50 mile radius of a nuclear plant

• The average person is exposed to 23 to 1.2 mrems living within the same radius equivalent size coal fired plant

[13]

Spent Fuel PoolsSpent Fuel Pools• Spent fuel rods are kept on site pools until

permanent geological disposal site is created • The pools help cool the rods from decay heat

and prevent criticality

[14]

• Fuel may be stored in pool for 1-10 years before dry storage

• 1% of the original mass is converted to Plutonium

[12]

Media and Popular Culture Media and Popular Culture [4]

[5]

[6]

Media and Popular Culture Media and Popular Culture

• Do those who disfavor nuclear energy have risk-averse behavior

• Does the media increase our perception of risk

• Are news stories sensationalized to gain the attention of viewers

Nuclear Energy is an order of magnitude safer than coalNuclear Energy is an order of magnitude safer than coal

Capacity by Energy SourceCapacity by Energy Source

[18]

Generation by SourceGeneration by Source

[18]

Production CostsProduction Costs

Coal 3.06Natural Gas 4.82Nuclear 2.14

Cents per Kwh in 2010

[19]

U.S. Electricity Production Cost U.S. Electricity Production Cost 1995-2010, In Cents per Kwh 1995-2010, In Cents per Kwh

[20]

Financing New PlantsFinancing New Plants• Upfront costs are high and investors do not

want to wait years for returns• Florida Power & Light expects a cost of $5400

per Kwh installed • Once new construction begins it is expected

that cost will drop per Kwh installed

[22]

Decommissioning CostsDecommissioning Costs• Total Cost per Plant $300-500 million – Radiological $300 million – Used Fuel $100-150 million– Restoration $50 million

• Total Cost of Fleet Decommissioning $31.9 billion– 2/3 of the decommissioning cost is already funded– The remaining cost will be funded over the next 20

years if the average plant is licensed for 40 years

[21]

Permanente StoragePermanente Storage• For every 1000kg fuel used at a nuclear power

plant over 999kg of fuel waste is created• 2,000-2,300 metric tons of waste are created

each year• Over 65,000 metric tons have been created

since the start of the industry • There is no large permanent high-level waste

site in the U.S.

[23] [24]

ResourcesResources• 1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Nuclear_fission.svg • 2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fission_chain_reaction.svg• 3 http://www.daviddarling.info/images/boiling-water_reactor.gif• 4 http://ia.media-imdb.com/images/M/MV5BMTY5NjU3MjIwOF5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTYwMDMxNDY5._V1._SY317_CR3,0,214,317_.jpg• 5 http://www.infrastructurist.com/wp-content/uploads/simpsons-radioactive.jpg• 6 http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iqs4fhVntXzSFcbAIBZ5hCvqzQCQ?docId=CNG.5fa661bb3a769ff2c8863ffeda85dc34.701• 7 http://www.nei.org/resourcesandstats/documentlibrary/publications/perspectiveonpublicopinion/perspective-on-public-opinion-november-2011/• 8 http://www.energypolicyblog.com/2011/04/27/reassessing-the-frequency-of-partial-core-melt-accidents/• 9 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Three_Mile_Island_nuclear_power_plant.jpg• 10 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Chernobyl_Disaster.jpg• 11 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fukushima_I_by_Digital_Globe.jpg• 12 http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20110421a5.html• 13 http://www.jstor.org.ezproxy.library.wisc.edu/stable/1747827?seq=4• 14 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121432182593500119.html• 15 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fuel_pool.jpg• 16 http://www.ieahydro.org/reports/ST3-020613b.pdf• 17 http://fora.tv/2011/05/03/Bill_Gates_Energy_Innovation• 18 http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table1_1.html• 19 http://www.nei.org/resourcesandstats/documentlibrary/reliableandaffordableenergy/graphicsandcharts/uselectricityproductioncostsandcomponents/• 20 http://www.nei.org/resourcesandstats/documentlibrary/reliableandaffordableenergy/graphicsandcharts/uselectricityproductioncosts/• 21 http://www.nei.org/resourcesandstats/nuclear_statistics/costs/• 22 http://web.mit.edu/ceepr/www/publications/workingpapers/2009-004.pdf• 23 http://www.nrc.gov/waste/hlw-disposal.html• 24 http://www.epa.gov/rpdweb00/yucca/

Questions & DiscussionQuestions & Discussion