The Continued Importance of Forward Basing and Boulding's Loss of Strength Gradient

8/14/2019 The Continued Importance of Forward Basing and Boulding's Loss of Strength Gradient

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ABSTRACT

The Loss of Strength Gradient (LSG) demonstrates how military power brought to

bear against an opponent weakens with distance. But this, along with the advantage

provided by forward basing, has been under attack. Proximity is supposedly becoming

less important for prevailing in war. It is a widely held view that has been expressed

not only by President George W. Bush but even by the person who devised the LSG;

Kenneth Boulding. As a result, it is being used as reason for the withdrawal of US

forces back to the American homeland.

One line of attack upon the LSG is that transport is becoming easier. Another is that

combatants have achieved sufficient capacity to defeat the opponent from afar

through strategic air and missile power. According to Boulding, improvements to

transport and the range of the deadly projectile amounted to a military revolution in

the 20th century. In addition, there is a further view which does not affect the slope of

the Gradient but undermines it by arguing that forward bases are losing viability

because of enemy threats and the reluctance of other states to host them.

This work uses Bouldings 20th century timeframe to show that the LSG has retained

its importance, excepting only temporary circumstances, and that forward basing is no

more vulnerable than in the past. It finds that this is the result of two enduring factors.

These are the competitive nature of war and the impermanence of Great Power status.

Both were recognised by Boulding, but he failed to apply them to the LSG.

This work shows that the Bush administration cannot take lasting advantage from a

belief that distance is of declining importance. No country can withdraw forces to itshomeland and expect to maintain permanently the same power projection capabilities.

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CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION 1

Forward locations for logistics 4Forward positions for fighting 8

Methodology 15

2. THE ADVANTAGE OF FORWARD LOCATIONS FOR LOGISTICS 18

Cost of transporthas not weakened the LSG 20

Speed of transport has not permanently altered the LSG 31

Forward located transport infrastructure continues to be needed to avoid

bottlenecks 47

The LSG is not permanently affected by attempts to reduce the load and increaseadvance warning 51

A reduced load can deter, but not permanently 55

3. THE ADVANTAGE OF FORWARD POSITIONS FOR FIGHTING 57

Air power has not permanently altered the LSG 58

Nuclear weapons and the LSG 78

Forward bases are not becoming more vulnerable to enemy attack 83

Base access on foreign territory is not getting harder 86

Fighting from the sea continues to be disadvantageous 94

4. A SUPERPOWER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 20TH CENTURY:

BRITAIN AND THE BOER WAR 1899-1902 100

Historical overview of the war 101

PART 1 THE ADVANTAGE OF FORWARD LOCATIONS FOR

LOGISTICS 104

Use of forward located supplies 104

Cost of transport 106Speed of transport 110

Infrastructure and bottlenecks 115

Reducing the load and increasing advance warning 123

A reduced load and deterrence 127

PART 2 THE ADVANTAGE OF FORWARD POSITIONS FOR FIGHTING 131

Use of artillery bombardment 131

Threat to the forward base from asymmetric warfare 137

Base access on foreign territory 139

Fighting from the sea 143

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5. A SUPERPOWER AT THE END OF THE 20TH CENTURY:

THE UNITED STATES AND THE GULF WAR 1990-1991 145



LOGISTICS 150Use of forward located supplies 150

Cost of transport 152

Speed of transport 154





Use of aerial bombardment 178




6. THE IMPORTANCE OF FORWARD BASING TO A FALLEN

SUPERPOWER: BRITAIN AND THE FALKLANDS WAR 1982 191



LOGISTICS 197

Use of forward located supplies 197

Cost of transport 198

Speed of transport 200





Use of aerial bombardment 220




7. CONCLUSION 245

The continuing advantage of forward locations for logistics 247

The continuing advantage of forward positions for fighting 255

Keeping forces forward based 260

BIBLIOGRAPHY 261

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DIAGRAMS

Figure 1. Bouldings Loss of Strength Gradient 1

Figure 2. The advantage of the forward location for sourcing supplies 28

Figure 3. The advantage of the forward location for positioning pre-paid supplies 30

Figure 4. The advantage of the forward location for saving time 34

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The Continued Importance of Forward Basing and Boulding's Loss of Strength Gradient