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Air pollution in Europe and Asia From Science to Policy
Markus Amann Program Director Mitigation of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases
Energy/agricultural projections
Emissions (10 pollutants)
Emission control options (~2000 measures)
Atmospheric dispersion
Costs
Environmental targets
GAINS Optimization
Air pollution impacts, Basket of GHG emissions
IIASA’s GAINS systems approach to identify cost-effective emission reduction strategies
GAINS - the central analytical tool for air pollution negotiations in Europe
Convention on Long-range Transboundary Pollution 1993 Second Sulphur Protocol
1999 Gothenburg Multi-pollutant/Multi-effect Protocol
2012 Revised Gothenburg Protocol
European Union 1995 EU Acidification Strategy
2001 National Emission Ceilings Directive
2005 Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution
2013 Clean Air Policy Package
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Scope for further measures
Marginal health benefits
Marginal emission control costs
The EU Clean Air Policy Package 2013
17 IIASA reports informing Commission, Council and Parliament
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Scope for further measures
Emission control costs
Health benefits
Costs and benefits of further emission reductions in 2030
Economically rational ambition level
Commission proposal
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Scope for further measures
The EU Clean Air Policy Package 2013
IIASA’s 2014 Impact Assessment for European Parliament on implications of the Climate and Energy Policy package
Costs and benefits of further emission reductions in 2030
Economically rational ambition level
Original Commission
proposal
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Scope for further measures
Climate and Energy Package 2014
Energy Baseline 2012
Original Commission
proposal
GAINS: From uncertain climate impacts of pollutants to robust win-win measures with climate co-benefits
16 practical measures that improve human health, increase agricultural productivity and reduce near-term temperate increase: • Transport:
– Diesel engines, high-emitting vehicles • Oil and gas sector:
– Venting, flaring, distribution losses • Waste management:
– Recycling, wastewater treatment • Heating and cook stoves:
– Clean stoves, pellets • Agriculture:
– Rice paddies, anaerobic digestion, open burning of residuals
• Modern brick production and coke ovens
Radiative forcing by substance Source: IPCC AR5
The Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC)
Climate and Clean Air Coalition - CCAC
• Formed in 2012 to promote implementation of these 16 measures
• Now 50 countries and 54 NGOs
• Voluntary, action-oriented, in context with other development goals
• IIASA on Science Advisory Panel
Reference CO2 measures The 16 SLCP measures CO2 + SLCP measures
Global temperature 1900-2070
New GAINS global NH3 emission inventory
Source: GAINS model; ECLIPSE V5 scenario
Total 2010
Fertilizer 2010 Livestock 2010
Severely NH3 limited - NH3 limited - Nitrate limited
Availability of ‘free NH3’
Is the formation of secondary inorganic aerosols in the JingJinJi region NH3-limited?
A large fraction of PM2.5 in China consists of secondary inorganic aerosols, even during episodes
World Bank support to China
2014: NH3/nitrogen use efficiency adopted as the main direction for World Bank support for the JingJinJi Clean Air Action program of the Chinese government
Air quality seen as entry point for good N management practices
Daily views from the 300m tower in Beijing, May 2013
IIASA provides the key requirements for turning scientific findings into
insights relevant for decision making
• Independence/perceived legitimacy of the institution
• Scientific networks involving multiple disciplines
• Quality control: Peer review + strict QAQC procedures
• Transparency, e.g., open access to models and data
• Continuous dialogue with decision makers and stakeholders
