The Changing Southern Forest Landscape What Might It Mean for Forest Owners & Service Providers?

Southern Forest Futures ProjectSouthern Forest Futures Project

The Changing Southern The Changing Southern Forest Landscape Forest Landscape

What Might It Mean for Forest What Might It Mean for Forest

Owners & Service Providers?Owners & Service Providers?

John G. GreisU.S. Forest Service


The South and Southern The South and Southern Forests are Changing…Forests are Changing…

• Population• Areal Extent• Location• Ownership & Objectives• Forest Health• Manageability• Markets


Forest area and Forest area and ownershipownership


Forest Area and Ownership - Forest Area and Ownership - SouthSouth

Forest industry

20%

NI private69%

Other public

5%

Nationalforest

6%

200 million acres

Source: SFRA, 2002


Ownership DistributionOwnership Distribution

North South

West

Federal State Local

Family Business

U.S.

Source: N.W.O. Survey


Forest Area by Ownership Forest Area by Ownership Group - SouthGroup - South

0

60

120

180

National forest Other public Forestindustry

Nonindustrialprivate

Ownership class

Mill

ion

acr

es

1953 1963 1982 1989 1999

Source: SFRA


Forest Type Changes - Forest Type Changes - SouthSouth

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

m a

cre

s

plantedpine

naturalpine

oak pine

uplandhardwood

lowlandhardwood

Reflects an ongoing set of dynamics: natural succession, management, land use changes… future indicates loss of natural area, increase in plantations.Source: SFRA


Population—U.S. and Population—U.S. and SouthSouth

0.00

50,000,000.00

100,000,000.00

150,000,000.00

200,000,000.00

250,000,000.00

300,000,000.00

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

South

USA

Source: SFRA, 2002


Southern Residents Are:Southern Residents Are:

• Wealthier• Better educated• More non-white• Less rural• Less blue-collar

•…….Than in 1980……• Very similar to rest of USA

Source: SFRA; So. WUI Assessment


Private Forest Land and Private Forest Land and OwnersOwners

1953 - 20031953 - 2003

0

100

200

300

400

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Are

a (M

M a

cres

)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Ow

ner

s (M

M)


Why do they own Why do they own forestland?forestland?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Firewood

Timber

Land investment

Recreation

Family legacy

Aesthetics

Home/farm

Percent of Family Forestland



Relationships between Relationships between Landholding Size and Landholding Size and Ownership ObjectivesOwnership Objectives

0

25

50

75

100

0 250 500 750 1000

Parcel Size (ac)

Rela

tive I

mport

ance

Aestethics Land investment Home or farm Timber



Relationship between Relationship between Landholding Size and Landholding Size and Management PlansManagement Plans

0

25

50

75

100

0 250 500 750 1000

Pro

babilit

y



Southern Forest Owners: Southern Forest Owners: • 5 million • Increasingly absentee• 29% white collar; 20% retirees• 6% farmers (down from 67% 50 yrs ago)• Diverse management objectives• Mostly do not seek management advice• Small % control more than 1/3 of all

timberland• Vary in how they prefer to receive

information

Source: SFRA


Southern Family Forest Southern Family Forest Landowner ObjectivesLandowner Objectives (2006 Focus Groups) (2006 Focus Groups)

• Family Legacy and Inheritance• Investment and Income

Generation• Pride of Ownership• Recreation (Family &Friends)• Wildlife Watching/Hunting


What About the Future?What About the Future?


Percent-20.1 - 00 - 12.712.7 - 27.327.3 - 49.749.7 - 114.9

Projected change in South’s population 2000 – 2020Source: So. WUI Assessment


2020 Forecast ….2020 Forecast ….Southern Residents Will Be:Southern Residents Will Be:

• Increased by 24 million• More urban• Older• More Hispanic and African-

American• Just more than 50% White

Source: So. WUI Assessment



Potential forest loss by 2030

-4000

-3500

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

Alabam

a

Arkansas

Florida

Georgia

Kentucky

Louisiana

Mississippi

North

Carolina

Oklahoma

South

Carolina

Tennessee

Texas

Virginia

1000 a

cre

sRange of Forecast Changes Range of Forecast Changes

U.S. SouthU.S. SouthWear, 2006 (in Draft)Wear, 2006 (in Draft)


Urbanization OutcomesUrbanization Outcomes

• Smaller parcel sizes• More difficult management (e.g. smoke)• More recreational pressure• Conversion to non-forest• Economic disincentives to own and

manage• More biocentric ownerships and citizenry• More public resistance to harvests • More local regulations and ordinances

(346 in 2000 vs. 141 in 1992 in South)

Source: SFRA; So. WUI Assessment


David Wear Southern Research

Station—USFS Research Triangle Park,

North Carolina

John Greis Southern Region—USFS

Tallahassee, Florida


What is the SFFP?What is the SFFP?

A two-year project that will use technical forecasts and expert analysis to examine the potential futures of southern forests and their services…


Who?Who?

• US Forest Service• Southern Group of State

Foresters• Other resource agencies• Universities• NGO’s/Associations• Anyone who is interested…



Regional Meta IssuesRegional Meta Issues

• Bioenergy• Invasive species• Ownership

Changes• Climate Change

• Fire• Taxes• Water• Wildlife/Forest

Communities• Socio-economics


Anticipated SFFP OutputsAnticipated SFFP Outputs

• Final sub-regional reports• Regional meta-issue reports• Forecast and Analysis report• Regional summary report• Data sets and models


The Great Challenge: The Great Challenge:

• Assist landowners having diverse, multiple and often non-commodity objectives

• Influence public opinion on forests and forest management

• Engage local governments, planners, engineers and policymakers

• Contribute relevant and professionally prepared information to all of the above


Thank You…..Thank You…..

John GreisU.S. Forest Service

[email protected]

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The Changing Southern Forest Landscape What Might It Mean for Forest Owners & Service Providers?