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TimberMart-South 1
Alabama Timber Price TrendsAlabama Forest Owners’ Association
January 23, 2008
Timber Mart-South
TimberMart-South 2
TimberMart-SouthCenter for Forest Business
D.B. Warnell School The University of Georgia
Thomas G. Harris, Jr. and Sara Baldwin
TimberMart-South 3
Alabama Timber TrendsOrder of Discussion
• Objectives• Sawtimber Markets, lumber and
housing trends• Pulpwood Markets• State-wide vs. Unique Regions• TimberMart-South
TimberMart-South 4
Alabama Average Stumpage Prices4th Quarter 1977 – 4th Quarter 2007
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
4Q 7
7
4Q 7
9
4Q 8
1
4Q 8
3
4Q 8
5
4Q 8
7
4Q 8
9
4Q 9
1
4Q 9
3
4Q 9
5
4Q 9
7
4Q 9
9
4Q 0
1
4Q 0
3
4Q 0
5
4Q 0
7
$/to
n
Pine Sawtimber
Pine Chip-n-Saw
Pine Pulpwood
Hardwood Sawtimber
Hardwood Pulpwood
Source: Timber Mart-South
TimberMart-South 5
Alabama Stumpage Pricesthrough 4th Q 2007 Compound Annual Rate of Change
Timber Mart-South
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1 year 5 year 10 year
Pine Sawtimber
Pine Chip-n-Saw
Pine Pulpwood
Mixed HardwoodSawtimberHardwood Pulpwood
TimberMart-South 6
North Alabama Stumpage Pricesthrough 4th Q 2007 Compound Annual Rate of Change
TMS Excel program
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1 year 5 year 10 year
Pine Sawtimber
Pine Chip-n-Saw
Pine Pulpwood
Mixed HardwoodSawtimberHardwood Pulpwood
TimberMart-South 7
South Alabama Stumpage Pricesthrough 4th Q 2007 Compound Annual Rate of Change
TMS Excel program
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
1 year 5 year 10 year
Pine Sawtimber
Pine Chip-n-Saw
Pine Pulpwood
Mixed HardwoodSawtimberHardwood Pulpwood
TimberMart-South 8
Alabama Pine Average Stumpage Prices
4th Quarter 1977 – 4th Quarter 2007
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
4Q 7
7
4Q 7
9
4Q 8
1
4Q 8
3
4Q 8
5
4Q 8
7
4Q 8
9
4Q 9
1
4Q 9
3
4Q 9
5
4Q 9
7
4Q 9
9
4Q 0
1
4Q 0
3
4Q 0
5
4Q 0
7
$/to
n
Pine Sawtimber
Pine Chip-n-Saw
Pine Pulpwood
Source: Timber Mart-South
TimberMart-South 9
Alabama Hardwood Average Stumpage Prices
4th Quarter 1977 – 4th Quarter 2007
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
4Q 7
7
4Q 7
9
4Q 8
1
4Q 8
3
4Q 8
5
4Q 8
7
4Q 8
9
4Q 9
1
4Q 9
3
4Q 9
5
4Q 9
7
4Q 9
9
4Q 0
1
4Q 0
3
4Q 0
5
4Q 0
7
$/to
n
Hardwood Sawtimber
Hardwood Pulpwood
Source: Timber Mart-South
TimberMart-South 10
Alabama Pulpwood Average Stumpage Prices
4th Quarter 1977 – 4th Quarter 2007
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
4Q 7
7
4Q 7
9
4Q 8
1
4Q 8
3
4Q 8
5
4Q 8
7
4Q 8
9
4Q 9
1
4Q 9
3
4Q 9
5
4Q 9
7
4Q 9
9
4Q 0
1
4Q 0
3
4Q 0
5
4Q 0
7
$/to
n
Pine Pulpwood
Hardwood Pulpwood
Source: Timber Mart-South
TimberMart-South 11
Alabama Average Pine Sawtimber Stumpage Prices vs. Southeast
Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q 04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07
$/T
on
AL Pine Sawtimber
SE Pine Sawtimber
TimberMart-South 12
Alabama Average Pine Chip N Saw Stumpage Prices vs. Southeast
Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q 04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07
$/T
on
AL Pine CNS
SE Pine CNS
TimberMart-South 13
Alabama Average Pine Pulpwood Stumpage Prices vs. Southeast
Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q 04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07
$/T
on
AL Pine Pulpwood
SE Pine Pulpwood
TimberMart-South 14
Alabama Average Hardwood Sawtimber Stumpage Prices vs.
Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q 04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07
$/T
on
AL HardwoodSawtimberSE Hardwood Sawtimber
TimberMart-South 15
Alabama Average Hardwood Pulpwood Stumpage Prices vs.
Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007
$0
$4
$8
$12
$16
4Q96 4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q 04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07
$/T
on
AL Hardwood Pulpwood
SE Hardwood Pulpwood
TimberMart-South 16
North Alabama Average Pine Sawtimber Stumpage Prices vs.
Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q 04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07
$/T
on
AL Reg 1 PineSawtimberSE Pine Sawtimber
Timber Mart-South
TimberMart-South 17
North Alabama Average Pine Chip N Saw Stumpage Prices vs.
Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th 2007
$0$4$8
$12$16$20
$24$28$32$36$40$44
4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07
$/T
on
AL Reg 1 Pine CNS
SE Pine CNS
Source: Timber Mart-South
TimberMart-South 18
North Alabama Average Pine Pulpwood Stumpage Prices vs.
Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007
$0
$4
$8
$12
$16
4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q 04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07
$/T
on
AL Reg 1 PinePulpwoodSE Pine Pulpwood
Timber Mart-South
TimberMart-South 19
North Alabama Average Hardwood Sawtimber Stumpage
Prices vs. Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007
$0
$4
$8
$12
$16
$20
$24
$28
$32
$36
4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07
$/T
on
AL Reg 1 HardwoodSawtimberSE Hardwood Sawtimber
Source: Timber Mart-South
TimberMart-South 20
North Alabama Average Hardwood Pulpwood Stumpage
Prices vs. Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007
$0
$4
$8
$12
4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07
$/T
on
AL Reg 1 HardwoodPulpwoodSE Hardwood Pulpwood
Source: Timber Mart-South
TimberMart-South 21
South Alabama Average Pine Sawtimber Stumpage Prices vs.
Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07
$/T
on
AL Reg 2 PineSawtimberSE Pine Sawtimber
Source: Timber Mart-South
TimberMart-South 22
South Alabama Average Pine Chip N Saw Stumpage Prices vs.
Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07
$/T
on
Al Reg 2 Pine CNS
SE Pine CNS
Source: Timber Mart-South
TimberMart-South 23
South Alabama Average Pine Pulpwood Stumpage Prices vs.
Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007
$0
$4
$8
$12
$16
4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07
$/T
on
AL Reg 2 PinePulpwoodSE Pine Pulpwood
Source: Timber Mart-South
TimberMart-South 24
South Alabama Average Hardwood Sawtimber Stumpage Prices vs.
Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07
$/T
on
AL Reg 2 HardwoodSawtimberSE Hardwood Sawtimber
Source: Timber Mart-South
TimberMart-South 25
South Alabama Average Hardwood Pulpwood Stumpage Prices vs.
Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07
$/T
on
AL Reg 2 HardwoodPulpwoodSE Hardwood Pulpwood
Source: Timber Mart-South
26
Southern Timber Trends
FinisQuestions