The Akin Predictionator - Seat Projections

PROV ELECTORAL DISTRICT

IncumbentParty after

Elxn41Predictionator

WinnerWinner beats

2nd by Race Type

2 or morewithin 10 pts ofWinner

10 Avalon CPC LPC 19.8% LIKELY

10 Bonavista—Burin—Trinity LPC LPC 45.6% LIKELY

10 Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame LPC LPC 46.2% LIKELY

10 Labrador CPC LPC 22.6% LIKELY

10 Long Range Mountains LPC LPC 47.5% LIKELY

10 St. John’s East NDP NDP 50.0% LIKELY

10 St. John’s South—Mount Pearl NDP NDP 5.5% LEANING11 Cardigan LPC LPC 41.3% LIKELY

11 Charlottetown LPC LPC 10.7% LIKELY

11 Egmont CPC LPC 9.7% LEANING11 Malpeque LPC LPC 24.0% LIKELY

12 Cape Breton—Canso LPC LPC 49.6% LIKELY

12 Central Nova CPC LPC 1.0% TOSSUP YES

12 Cumberland—Colchester CPC LPC 17.8% LIKELY

12 Dartmouth—Cole Harbour NDP LPC 15.8% LIKELY

12 Halifax NDP NDP 6.9% LEANING12 Halifax West LPC LPC 34.1% LIKELY

12 Kings—Hants LPC LPC 43.4% LIKELY

12 Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook NDP NDP 39.4% LIKELY

12 South Shore—St. Margarets CPC NDP 2.2% TOSSUP12 Sydney—Victoria LPC LPC 43.5% LIKELY

12 West Nova CPC LPC 37.2% LIKELY

13 Acadie—Bathurst NDP LPC 24.5% LIKELY

13 Beauséjour LPC LPC 51.2% LIKELY

13 Fredericton CPC LPC 6.9% LEANING13 Fundy Royal CPC CPC 8.1% LEANING13 Madawaska—Restigouche CPC LPC 47.7% LIKELY

LIKELY= Winner by 10 points or more | LEANING 3-10 points between 1st & 2nd | TOSSUP 2.9 pts or less between 1st & 2nd

Note: Incumbents are based on transposition of 2011 vote on to 2015 boundaries




WinnerWinner beats

2nd by Race Type


13 Miramichi—Grand Lake CPC LPC 23.8% LIKELY

13 Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe CPC LPC 34.8% LIKELY

13 New Brunswick Southwest CPC LPC 1.8% TOSSUP YES

13 Saint John—Rothesay CPC LPC 7.1% LEANING YES

13 Tobique—Mactaquac CPC LPC 13.3% LIKELY

24 Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou NDP NDP 6.9% LEANING24 Abitibi—Témiscamingue NDP NDP 10.1% LIKELY

24 Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC LPC 17.2% LIKELY

24 Alfred-Pellan NDP LPC 0.5% TOSSUP24 Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation NDP NDP 3.7% LEANING

24Avignon—LaMitis—Matane—Matapédia BQ LPC 15.1% LIKELY

24 Beauce CPC CPC 34.6% LIKELY

24Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Îled’Orléans—Charlevoix NDP CPC 0.9% TOSSUP YES

24 Beauport—Limoilou NDP NDP 1.6% TOSSUP24 Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel BQ BQ 7.8% LEANING24 Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis CPC CPC 28.3% LIKELY

24 Beloeil—Chambly NDP NDP 11.0% LIKELY

24 Berthier—Maskinongé NDP NDP 2.5% TOSSUP YES

24 Bourassa LPC LPC 42.5% LIKELY

24 Brome—Missisquoi NDP LPC 13.2% LIKELY

24 Brossard—Saint-Lambert NDP LPC 29.9% LIKELY

24 Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles NDP CPC 5.2% LEANING24 Châteauguay—Lacolle NDP NDP 11.7% LIKELY

24 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord NDP CPC 3.3% LEANING YES

24 Compton—Stanstead NDP NDP 9.0% LEANING24 Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle NDP LPC 22.4% LIKELY






WinnerWinner beats

2nd by Race Type


24 Drummond NDP NDP 19.3% LIKELY

24 Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine BQ LPC 5.5% LEANING24 Gatineau NDP NDP 16.4% LIKELY

24 Hochelaga NDP NDP 7.4% LEANING24 Honoré-Mercier NDP LPC 34.4% LIKELY

24 Hull—Aylmer NDP LPC 0.2% TOSSUP24 Joliette NDP NDP 5.1% LEANING24 Jonquière NDP CPC 13.9% LIKELY

24 La Pointe-de-l'Île NDP BQ 2.1% TOSSUP24 La Prairie NDP NDP 20.2% LIKELY

24 Lac-Saint-Jean CPC CPC 23.3% LIKELY

24 Lac-Saint-Louis LPC LPC 25.5% LIKELY

24 LaSalle—Émard—Verdun NDP LPC 3.5% LEANING24 Laurentides—Labelle NDP NDP 10.0% LEANING24 Laurier—Sainte-Marie NDP NDP 2.9% TOSSUP24 Laval—Les Îles NDP LPC 7.9% LEANING24 Lévis—Lotbinière CPC CPC 21.0% LIKELY

24 Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne NDP NDP 13.9% LIKELY

24 Longueuil—Saint-Hubert NDP NDP 11.1% LIKELY

24 Louis-Hébert NDP NDP 0.0% TOSSUP YES

24 Louis-Saint-Laurent NDP CPC 17.3% LIKELY

24 Manicouagan NDP NDP 6.1% LEANING24 Marc-Aurèle-Fortin NDP NDP 6.4% LEANING24 Mégantic—L'Érable CPC CPC 34.5% LIKELY

24 Mirabel NDP NDP 9.0% LEANING24 Mont-Royal LPC LPC 10.8% LIKELY

24 Montarville NDP NDP 6.1% LEANING YES






WinnerWinner beats

2nd by Race Type


24 Montcalm NDP NDP 10.6% LIKELY

24Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup NDP CPC 18.3% LIKELY

24 Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC LPC 32.6% LIKELY

24 Outremont NDP NDP 1.5% TOSSUP YES

24 Papineau LPC LPC 43.2% LIKELY

24Pierre-Boucher—LesPatriotes—Verchères NDP NDP 0.7% TOSSUP

24 Pierrefonds—Dollard NDP LPC 13.7% LIKELY

24 Pontiac NDP NDP 2.0% TOSSUP24 Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier NDP CPC 0.4% TOSSUP24 Québec NDP CPC 2.8% TOSSUP YES

24 Repentigny NDP NDP 11.2% LIKELY

24 Richmond—Arthabaska BQ CPC 37.9% LIKELY

24Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—LesBasques NDP NDP 4.1% LEANING

24 Rivière-des-Mille-Îles NDP NDP 18.3% LIKELY

24 Rivière-du-Nord NDP NDP 16.3% LIKELY

24 Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP NDP 8.7% LEANING24 Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot NDP NDP 15.5% LIKELY

24 Saint-Jean NDP NDP 7.7% LEANING24 Saint-Laurent LPC LPC 45.5% LIKELY

24 Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC LPC 46.0% LIKELY

24 Saint-Maurice—Champlain NDP NDP 0.5% TOSSUP YES

24 Salaberry—Suroît NDP NDP 1.9% TOSSUP24 Shefford NDP NDP 16.7% LIKELY

24 Sherbrooke NDP NDP 0.3% TOSSUP24 Terrebonne NDP NDP 12.9% LIKELY






WinnerWinner beats

2nd by Race Type


24 Thérèse-De Blainville NDP NDP 11.9% LIKELY

24 Trois-Rivières NDP NDP 14.9% LIKELY

24 Vaudreuil—Soulanges NDP NDP 5.4% LEANING YES

24Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs NDP LPC 24.9% LIKELY

24 Vimy NDP LPC 10.3% LIKELY

35 Ajax CPC LPC 24.5% LIKELY

35 Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing NDP NDP 15.6% LIKELY

35 Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill CPC LPC 5.5% LEANING35 Barrie—Innisfil CPC CPC 20.4% LIKELY

35 Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte CPC CPC 5.2% LEANING35 Bay of Quinte CPC LPC 0.9% TOSSUP35 Beaches—East York NDP LPC 19.2% LIKELY

35 Brampton Centre CPC LPC 4.7% LEANING35 Brampton East NDP LPC 5.4% LEANING35 Brampton North CPC LPC 12.7% LIKELY

35 Brampton South CPC LPC 26.5% LIKELY

35 Brampton West CPC LPC 29.6% LIKELY

35 Brantford—Brant CPC LPC 3.3% LEANING35 Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound CPC CPC 13.4% LIKELY

35 Burlington CPC LPC 1.6% TOSSUP35 Cambridge CPC LPC 21.8% LIKELY

35 Carleton CPC CPC 2.2% TOSSUP35 Chatham-Kent—Leamington CPC CPC 5.5% LEANING35 Davenport NDP NDP 1.9% TOSSUP35 Don Valley East LPC LPC 32.9% LIKELY

35 Don Valley North CPC LPC 28.9% LIKELY






WinnerWinner beats

2nd by Race Type


35 Don Valley West CPC LPC 31.5% LIKELY

35 Dufferin—Caledon CPC CPC 24.9% LIKELY

35 Durham CPC CPC 17.7% LIKELY

35 Eglinton—Lawrence CPC LPC 11.9% LIKELY

35 Elgin—Middlesex—London CPC LPC 1.5% TOSSUP35 Essex CPC CPC 0.3% TOSSUP35 Etobicoke Centre CPC LPC 18.3% LIKELY

35 Etobicoke North LPC LPC 44.1% LIKELY

35 Etobicoke—Lakeshore CPC LPC 9.3% LEANING35 Flamborough—Glanbrook CPC CPC 11.1% LIKELY

35 Glengarry—Prescott—Russell CPC LPC 11.7% LIKELY

35 Guelph LPC LPC 30.3% LIKELY

35 Haldimand—Norfolk CPC LPC 3.8% LEANING35 Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock CPC CPC 21.6% LIKELY

35 Hamilton Centre NDP NDP 29.0% LIKELY

35 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDP NDP 9.5% LEANING35 Hamilton Mountain NDP NDP 10.1% LIKELY

35 Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC LPC 26.6% LIKELY

35 Hastings—Lennox and Addington CPC CPC 10.6% LIKELY

35 Humber River—Black Creek LPC LPC 48.6% LIKELY

35 Huron—Bruce CPC CPC 6.4% LEANING35 Kanata—Carleton CPC LPC 7.1% LEANING35 Kenora CPC LPC 0.9% TOSSUP35 King—Vaughan CPC LPC 6.7% LEANING35 Kingston and the Islands LPC LPC 37.2% LIKELY

35 Kitchener Centre CPC LPC 13.8% LIKELY

35 Kitchener South—Hespeler CPC LPC 1.4% TOSSUP






WinnerWinner beats

2nd by Race Type


35 Kitchener—Conestoga CPC LPC 1.8% TOSSUP35 Lambton—Kent—Middlesex CPC CPC 19.0% LIKELY

35 Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston CPC CPC 16.1% LIKELY

35Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islandsand Rideau Lakes CPC CPC 21.5% LIKELY

35 London North Centre CPC LPC 20.0% LIKELY

35 London West CPC LPC 13.1% LIKELY

35 London—Fanshawe NDP NDP 17.0% LIKELY

35 Markham—Stouffville CPC LPC 11.8% LIKELY

35 Markham—Thornhill LPC LPC 31.1% LIKELY

35 Markham—Unionville CPC LPC 23.9% LIKELY

35 Milton CPC LPC 2.6% TOSSUP35 Mississauga Centre CPC LPC 30.5% LIKELY

35 Mississauga East—Cooksville CPC LPC 28.7% LIKELY

35 Mississauga—Erin Mills CPC LPC 22.3% LIKELY

35 Mississauga—Lakeshore CPC LPC 27.4% LIKELY

35 Mississauga—Malton CPC LPC 30.0% LIKELY

35 Mississauga—Streetsville CPC LPC 25.3% LIKELY

35 Nepean CPC LPC 13.7% LIKELY

35 Newmarket—Aurora CPC LPC 2.5% TOSSUP35 Niagara Centre NDP NDP 6.7% LEANING35 Niagara Falls CPC LPC 9.3% LEANING35 Niagara West CPC CPC 15.0% LIKELY

35 Nickel Belt NDP NDP 20.8% LIKELY

35 Nipissing—Timiskaming LPC LPC 33.2% LIKELY

35 Northumberland—Peterborough South CPC LPC 4.0% LEANING35 Oakville CPC LPC 16.5% LIKELY






WinnerWinner beats

2nd by Race Type


35 Oakville North—Burlington CPC LPC 9.2% LEANING35 Orléans CPC LPC 37.5% LIKELY

35 Oshawa CPC CPC 9.0% LEANING35 Ottawa Centre NDP NDP 6.3% LEANING35 Ottawa South LPC LPC 44.6% LIKELY

35 Ottawa West—Nepean CPC LPC 18.9% LIKELY

35 Ottawa—Vanier LPC LPC 38.2% LIKELY

35 Oxford CPC CPC 30.2% LIKELY

35 Parkdale—High Park NDP LPC 13.7% LIKELY

35 Parry Sound—Muskoka CPC CPC 22.9% LIKELY

35 Perth—Wellington CPC CPC 6.5% LEANING35 Peterborough—Kawartha CPC LPC 19.7% LIKELY

35 Pickering—Uxbridge CPC LPC 23.4% LIKELY

35 Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke CPC CPC 16.5% LIKELY

35 Richmond Hill CPC LPC 27.7% LIKELY

35 Sarnia—Lambton CPC CPC 10.3% LIKELY

35 Sault Ste. Marie CPC LPC 18.1% LIKELY

35 Scarborough Centre CPC LPC 26.8% LIKELY

35 Scarborough North NDP LPC 21.5% LIKELY

35 Scarborough Southwest NDP LPC 22.2% LIKELY

35 Scarborough—Agincourt LPC LPC 45.5% LIKELY

35 Scarborough—Guildwood LPC LPC 33.8% LIKELY

35 Scarborough—Rouge Park LPC LPC 31.4% LIKELY

35 Simcoe North CPC LPC 0.1% TOSSUP35 Simcoe—Grey CPC CPC 16.7% LIKELY

35 Spadina—Fort York NDP LPC 0.9% TOSSUP35 St. Catharines CPC LPC 5.2% LEANING






WinnerWinner beats

2nd by Race Type


35 Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry CPC CPC 14.7% LIKELY

35 Sudbury NDP NDP 8.6% LEANING35 Thornhill CPC CPC 0.1% TOSSUP35 Thunder Bay—Rainy River NDP NDP 1.4% TOSSUP35 Thunder Bay—Superior North NDP LPC 5.7% LEANING YES

35 Timmins—James Bay NDP NDP 12.5% LIKELY

35 Toronto Centre LPC LPC 34.2% LIKELY

35 Toronto—Danforth NDP NDP 18.1% LIKELY

35 Toronto—St. Paul’s LPC LPC 40.0% LIKELY

35 University—Rosedale NDP LPC 20.0% LIKELY

35 Vaughan—Woodbridge CPC LPC 13.6% LIKELY

35 Waterloo CPC LPC 27.9% LIKELY

35 Wellington—Halton Hills CPC CPC 19.0% LIKELY

35 Whitby CPC CPC 19.0% LIKELY

35 Willowdale CPC LPC 30.5% LIKELY

35 Windsor West NDP NDP 23.7% LIKELY

35 Windsor—Tecumseh NDP NDP 15.2% LIKELY

35 York Centre CPC LPC 20.6% LIKELY

35 York South—Weston NDP LPC 25.6% LIKELY

35 York—Simcoe CPC CPC 30.3% LIKELY

46 Brandon—Souris CPC CPC 34.8% LIKELY

46Charleswood—St.James—Assiniboia—Headingley CPC LPC 8.5% LEANING

46 Churchill—Keewatinook Aski NDP NDP 4.6% LEANING46 Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa CPC CPC 34.9% LIKELY

46 Elmwood—Transcona CPC NDP 19.3% LIKELY

46 Kildonan—St. Paul CPC CPC 16.7% LIKELY






WinnerWinner beats

2nd by Race Type


46 Portage—Lisgar CPC CPC 53.5% LIKELY

46 Provencher CPC CPC 45.8% LIKELY

46 Saint Boniface—Saint Vital CPC LPC 0.9% TOSSUP46 Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman CPC CPC 37.4% LIKELY

46 Winnipeg Centre NDP NDP 18.8% LIKELY

46 Winnipeg North NDP LPC 40.2% LIKELY

46 Winnipeg South CPC LPC 32.9% LIKELY

46 Winnipeg South Centre CPC LPC 44.4% LIKELY

47 Battlefords—Lloydminster CPC CPC 5.7% LEANING47 Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek CPC CPC 5.7% LEANING47 Cypress Hills—Grasslands CPC CPC 5.7% LEANING47 Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River CPC CPC 5.7% LEANING47 Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan CPC CPC 5.7% LEANING47 Prince Albert CPC CPC 5.7% LEANING47 Regina—Lewvan NDP NDP 1.8% TOSSUP YES

47 Regina—Qu'Appelle CPC LPC 10.1% LIKELY

47 Regina—Wascana LPC LPC 2.4% TOSSUP YES

47 Saskatoon West NDP NDP 5.1% LEANING47 Saskatoon—Grasswood CPC CPC 0.2% TOSSUP YES

47 Saskatoon—University CPC NDP 6.5% LEANING47 Souris—Moose Mountain CPC CPC 25.8% LIKELY

47 Yorkton—Melville CPC CPC 17.0% LIKELY

48 Banff—Airdrie CPC CPC 33.9% LIKELY

48 Battle River—Crowfoot CPC CPC 35.8% LIKELY

48 Bow River CPC CPC 35.8% LIKELY

48 Calgary Centre CPC CPC 4.6% LEANING48 Calgary Confederation CPC LPC 16.3% LIKELY






WinnerWinner beats

2nd by Race Type


48 Calgary Forest Lawn CPC CPC 9.6% LEANING48 Calgary Heritage CPC CPC 6.8% LEANING48 Calgary Midnapore CPC CPC 5.4% LEANING48 Calgary Nose Hill CPC CPC 5.4% LEANING48 Calgary Rocky Ridge CPC CPC 5.4% LEANING48 Calgary Shepard CPC CPC 5.4% LEANING48 Calgary Signal Hill CPC CPC 5.4% LEANING48 Calgary Skyview CPC CPC 1.6% TOSSUP48 Edmonton Centre CPC NDP 1.9% TOSSUP48 Edmonton Griesbach CPC NDP 3.8% LEANING48 Edmonton Manning CPC CPC 4.1% LEANING YES

48 Edmonton Mill Woods CPC CPC 0.9% TOSSUP48 Edmonton Riverbend CPC CPC 6.1% LEANING YES

48 Edmonton Strathcona NDP NDP 17.1% LIKELY

48 Edmonton West CPC CPC 11.5% LIKELY

48 Edmonton—Wetaskiwin CPC CPC 11.2% LIKELY

48 Foothills CPC CPC 37.3% LIKELY

48 Fort McMurray—Cold Lake CPC CPC 30.4% LIKELY

48 Grande Prairie—Mackenzie CPC CPC 37.3% LIKELY

48 Lakeland CPC CPC 37.3% LIKELY

48 Lethbridge CPC CPC 29.7% LIKELY

48 Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner CPC CPC 37.3% LIKELY

48 Peace River—Westlock CPC CPC 37.3% LIKELY

48 Red Deer—Lacombe CPC CPC 37.3% LIKELY

48 Red Deer—Mountain View CPC CPC 37.3% LIKELY

48 Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan CPC CPC 3.9% LEANING YES

48 St. Albert—Edmonton CPC CPC 22.2% LIKELY






WinnerWinner beats

2nd by Race Type


48 Sturgeon River—Parkland CPC CPC 38.2% LIKELY

48 Yellowhead CPC CPC 37.3% LIKELY

59 Abbotsford CPC CPC 28.6% LIKELY

59 Burnaby North—Seymour CPC CPC 7.0% LEANING59 Burnaby South NDP NDP 8.2% LEANING YES

59 Cariboo—Prince George CPC CPC 23.0% LIKELY

59CentralOkanagan—Similkameen—Nicola CPC CPC 18.0% LIKELY

59 Chilliwack—Hope CPC CPC 15.2% LIKELY

59 Cloverdale—Langley City CPC CPC 12.0% LIKELY

59 Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam CPC CPC 13.1% LIKELY

59 Courtenay—Alberni CPC NDP 0.9% TOSSUP YES

59 Cowichan—Malahat—Langford NDP NDP 8.8% LEANING59 Delta CPC LPC 7.5% LEANING59 Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke NDP NDP 8.3% LEANING59 Fleetwood—Port Kells CPC LPC 1.7% TOSSUP59 Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo CPC CPC 10.8% LIKELY

59 Kelowna—Lake Country CPC CPC 16.9% LIKELY

59 Kootenay—Columbia CPC CPC 3.5% LEANING59 Langley—Aldergrove CPC CPC 26.8% LIKELY

59 Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon CPC CPC 18.2% LIKELY

59 Nanaimo—Ladysmith NDP CPC 4.5% LEANING YES

59 New Westminster—Burnaby NDP NDP 20.0% LIKELY

59 North Island—Powell River CPC CPC 1.0% TOSSUP59 North Okanagan—Shuswap CPC CPC 23.7% LIKELY

59 North Vancouver CPC LPC 31.2% LIKELY

59 Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge CPC CPC 11.2% LIKELY






WinnerWinner beats

2nd by Race Type


59 Port Moody—Coquitlam CPC NDP 11.6% LIKELY

59Prince George—Peace River—NorthernRockies CPC CPC 31.6% LIKELY

59 Richmond Centre CPC LPC 0.9% TOSSUP59 Saanich—Gulf Islands GPC GPC 21.4% LIKELY

59 Skeena—Bulkley Valley NDP NDP 28.5% LIKELY

59 South Okanagan—West Kootenay CPC NDP 3.4% LEANING59 South Surrey—White Rock CPC LPC 1.1% TOSSUP59 Steveston—Richmond East CPC LPC 5.3% LEANING59 Surrey Centre NDP LPC 7.9% LEANING59 Surrey—Newton NDP LPC 40.2% LIKELY

59 Vancouver Centre LPC LPC 39.4% LIKELY

59 Vancouver East NDP NDP 28.8% LIKELY

59 Vancouver Granville CPC LPC 18.6% LIKELY

59 Vancouver Kingsway NDP NDP 2.9% TOSSUP59 Vancouver Quadra LPC LPC 54.0% LIKELY

59 Vancouver South CPC LPC 40.0% LIKELY

59 Victoria NDP NDP 13.1% LIKELY

59West Vancouver—SunshineCoast—Sea to Sky Country CPC LPC 6.9% LEANING

60 Yukon CPC LPC 48.7% LIKELY

61 Northwest Territories NDP LPC 5.1% LEANING62 Nunavut CPC LPC 13.7% LIKELY



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The Akin Predictionator - Seat Projections