The ABCD/DUK/SfE/RCP Manpower Survey

(2013-14)

Dinesh Nagi Presented at

ABCD Cardiff 26th April 2015

The ABCD/DUK/SfE/RCP Survey 2014(1/10/2013-30/9/2014)

The Process • Postal Survey• Sent Mid September 2014• Supportive information obtained

– RCP- AAC Unit– RCP- Workforce Survey 2013– BMJ Careers Unit – JRCPTB

The ABCD/DUK/SfE/RCP Survey 2014(1/10/2013-30/9/2014)

Results

Consultant Level Appointments 2006-14

Survey Year

Number

Consultant Level AppointmentsNew vs replacement posts

Survey Year

Number

Make of new appointments

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Retired 19 15 17 16 21 17

Left Posts 5 5 6 20 22 26New Posts 23 37 20 17 16 04Total 47 57 43 53 59 47

Diabetes UK Professional Conference 2012

Consultant expansion in specialty vs all specialtiesUnited Kingdom 2003–2012

Data upto 2012 (last RCP report available)

Number of Head Count and WTE

Year Head count WTE

2014 880 7592013 876 7552012 860 7392011 849 7282010 823 7012009 791 678

2008 763 652

Mean age at retirement 2009-10 was 62.7 yrs

Age of those in post

2010-11 was 62.8 yrs

2011-12 was 62.3 yrs

2012-13 was 62.2 yrs

2013-14 was 62.3 yrs

Number of consultants who will reach 65 years of age over the next 10 years – by specialty

Diabetes UK Professional Conference 2012

RCP Survey

Specialty 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total% of specialty

Endocrinology and diabetes mellitus 14 9 15 12 15 21 20 16 17 19 30 188 23.7

All specialties 137 159 175 186 210 258 261 304 340 338 384 2,752 22.6%

Data upto 2012 (last RCP report available)

Annual Total Headcount and WTE

Country Population Headcount Head count per 100,000

WTE WTE per 100,000

England 53,170,900 699 1.31 599 1.13Wales 3,074,067 51 1.66 46 1.50Scotland 5,313,600 93 1.75 82 1.54N Ireland 1,823,634 33 1.81 28 1.54 UK 63382201 876 1.38 755 1.19

2013

2014

Country Population Headcount Head count per 100,000

WTE WTE per 100,000

England 53,865,800 703 1.30 603 1.12Wales 3,082400 51 1.65 46 1.49Scotland 5,327000 93 1.74 82 1.54N Ireland 1,81,9700 33 1.81 28 1.54 UK 64,105,700 880 1.37 759 1.18

Mean programmed activities (PAs) contracted per week

Diabetes UK Professional Conference 2012

RCP Survey

Specialty ResponsesTotal Clinical Academic Supporting Other

PAs PAs PAs PAs PAs

Endocrinology and diabetes mellitus 385 10.8 7.1 1.1 2.0 0.6

All specialties 5,143 10.6 7.5 0.7 2.0 0.4

Mean programmed activities (PAs) worked per week

Specialty ResponsesTotal Clinical Academic Supporting Other

PAs PAs PAs PAs PAs

Endocrinology and diabetes mellitus 377 12.0 7.7 1.1 2.7 0.3

Summary 5,075 11.8 8.1 0.8 2.7 0.2

Specialist Training and Recruitement

2013-2014

NTN numbers (Total enrolled to date)

Figures from JRCPTB

Trainees are out of the Programme In full time research ??

Total Number in Training = 407

CCT numbers (Period 1st Aug-31st July)

Figures from JRCPTB

Year CCT Awarded

2008-09 72

2009-10 77

2010-11 68

2011-12 N/A2012-13 49

2013-14 68

Year CCT Predicted

2014-15 822015-16 762016-17 422017-18 212018-19 20

Survey Overview (1)

• The survey appears to continue to give a accurate ascertainment of numbers in post

• The total numbers of new appointments was lower from last year

• The number of post in acute medicine with D&E interest is stable over the last 2 years

Survey Overview (2)

• The numbers of expected new CCT holders in the coming years is higher than current vacancies

• Retirement vacancies do not look likely to vary much in the coming years

• The rate of creation of new posts will continue to determine the overall balance, but has been the lowest ever for 2013-2014 (Total 4)

Highlights Consultant Posts• Rate of expansion- i.e new posts is all time low • Retirement posts are being replaced and number of people

retiring each year is stable • The number of CCT awarded annually exceeds the number

of available posts. • Mismatch between CCT holders and Available posts?

Specialist Registrar • The Ratio of existing Consultant posts/NTNs is 1.9• Recruitment: Unfilled NTNs (3rd behind Elderly and AIM)

and Geographic Variation

Succession Planning -• Dr Stella George has been appointed to lead the

survey for next 5 years (starting 2015-16)• Next Survey (2014-15), will be done jointly with

Handover and Mentoring period• Changes for 2014-15 survey?

– Emphasis on Job Plan and workload– More accurate data on GIM/Diabetes/Endo split– Academic Contribution by consultants and accurate ascertainment of

Academic posts – Primary care work

Future Hospital: Caring for medical patients

Aim of the Future Hospital CommissionIdentify new way of delivering hospital services: •Come to patient•Coordinated around patients’ needs (including for multiple conditions)•Organised over seven days•Reach beyond hospital walls•Value patient experience as much as clinical outcome•Deliver clear lines of responsibility for patient care

Realising the Future HospitalRCP Future Hospital Programme (2014-2017)

•improve care for patients•develop and implement vision - medical care in hospital and community•drive real change - recommendation to reality•work in partnership with:

- patients - individual hospitals and teams- partners across health and social care (FH strategic advisory group)- national stakeholders

Realising the Future Hospital• Consult • Future Hospital partner sites- develop model- understand implications- identify barriers and changes- promote and mentor• Promote good practice - Future Hospital Journal• Influence - identify levers in new structures• Embed in existing RCP work

FHC partnershipProgramme (RCP) Sites

• Four Chosen out of 20 Application • 3 focus on Elderly care • 1 on emergency Floor re-organisation • First meeting 15th October• Other Sites

– Wales (Betsy Cowadalon)– East Lanacashire– Wessex region

Vision = Integrated Patient Centred Care for Older People (MYT)

Project Time linesStart date: Likely to be late 2014/Early 2015Total Duration 12-18 Months

Initial Planning and start 0-3 monthImplementation and delivery 3-12 monthEvaluation 12-15 monthWrite up and dissemination 15-18 month

With interim evaluation and project progress assessment as per governance structure

First FHC RCP National Meeting (Harrogate)

• March 2015• Attended by 600 delegates including Trainees• Key Speakers from Politicians/Public and experts• A huge Success• Next Year date.

– 15-16 March 2016 – Harrogate

Final report will be available after end April 2015

• DUK Website: http://www.diabetes.org.uk/Professionals

• ABCD Website: http://www.diabetologists-abcd.org.uk/mainmenu.html

• SfE Websitehttp://www.endocrinology.org/clinical/