The 5 th Session of the JSC for CAS OPAG on WWRP, Geneva Switzerland, 11-13 April, 2012 Yihong DUAN, WGTMR [email protected] On the Review of the Work

The 5th Session of the JSC for CAS OPAG on WWRP, Geneva Switzerland, 11-13 April , 2012

Yihong DUAN, WGTMR

[email protected]

On the Review of the Work Development and Future Plan for Tropical Meteorology Research

mailto:[email protected]

Contents

1. Activities

2. Projects and publications

3. Plan for next two years

TMR: Yihong DUAN(China)

TC Panel:

Johnny CHAN (HK, China)

Monsoon Panel:

C.P. CHANG (USA)

• Richard JOHNSON (USA)• Tom KNUTSON (USA)• Gabriel LAU (USA)• Ajit TYAGI (India) • YAP Kok Seng (Malaysia)• Suzana CAMARGO (USA)• John McBRIDE (Australia)• Robert ROGERS (USA)• Chin Ling WONG (Singapore)

TC Panel :To improve understanding of various TC characteristics,To apply the latest advances in science to improvements in operational forecasting,To Train forecasters in understanding the latest research findings.

Monsoon PanelPromotion of research on monsoon meteorology topics that are of high priority to operational NMHSs,Exchanges and interactions between researchers and operational forecasters, particularly those in the developing countries,International cooperation on monsoon field programs and other research projects,Interactions between monsoon weather and monsoon climate researchers and forecasters.

Objectives of TMR

1. Activities: Workshops and Training

International Workshop on Monsoon Heavy Rainfall (Beijing, China. 14-16 Oct 2011)

International Workshop on Rapid Changes in TC Intensity and Track (Xiamen, China. 18-20 Oct 2011)

Training Session on Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast (Nanjing, China. 14-16 Dec 2011)

Second International Conference on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones & Climate Change (New Delhi, India. 14-17 Feb 2012)

International Conference on "Opportunities and Challenges in Monsoon Prediction in a Changing Climate" (Pune, India. 21-25 Feb 2012)

1.1 International Workshop on Monsoon Heavy Rainfall (Beijing, China. 14-16 Oct 2011)

Sponsors TMR, 973/MOST/China, NSF/China

Scientific Objectives To present recent research results on the observation,

modeling and prediction;

To provide training on monsoon heavy rainfall forecasting;

To evaluate a proposed international field and modeling project on summer monsoon heavy rainfall in southern China.


Meeting Size 30 Participants (researchers and forecasters)

from 11 Countries and Regions. Venue and Time

Beijing, China. 14-16, Oct 2011Meeting Chair

Professor C. P. Chang (Naval Postgraduate School, USA)

Meeting Topics:

Synoptic and Mesoscale Processes Associated with Monsoon Heavy Rainfall

Characteristics of the Extreme Heavy Rainfall Modeling and Forecasting Heavy Convective

Precipitation The Effects of La Nina and Intra-seasonal Oscillations

on Monsoon Rainfall Events

South China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment Research and Development Project (SCMREX-RDP)


A Proposal for WWRP/WMO Research and Development Project (RDP)

Title of Proposal:•Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX) Research and Development Project

Objectives •To better understand the heavy rainfall during the first rainy season in southern China and •To improve the capability of numerical weather prediction (NWP) for heavy rainfalls

1.2 International Workshop on Rapid Changes in TC Intensity and Track (Xiamen, China 18-20 Oct 2011)

Sponsors

TMR/WWRP, TCP/WMO, 973 Program/MOST and NSF/China

Scientific Objectives

To highlight the recent advances in the theory and practice of forecasting rapid changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity and track;

To promote the exchange among the tropical cyclone researchers and operational forecasters with their expertise;

To identify the recent research findings that could be transitioned in to operations.

Meeting Size 53 Participants (researchers and operational

forecasters) from 10 CountriesVenue and Time

Xiamen, China. 18-20, Oct 2011Meeting Co-Chairs

Yihong Duan (NMC/CMA,CHINA) Lianshou Chen (CAMS/CMA,CHINA) Russ Elsberry (Naval Postgraduate School,

USA)


Meeting Topics

Rapid Change in Tropical Cyclone Track

Rapid Change in TC Intensity and Structure;

Forecast of Rapid Changes in TC Intensity, Track, and Rainfall;

Workshop Summary from Researcher Perspective

Workshop Summary from Operational Perspective


Recommendations to WWRP/WMO from Workshop

• Continue to proceed along the path laid out at the IWTCLP-II with a focus on tropical cyclone landfall.

• Continue to focus on unusual behavior by addressing the uncertainty in the forecast,

• Continue to enhance the development of TC ensemble forecast techniques.

• Explore establishment of tropical cyclone archive(s) for field experiment data sets in a format that will facilitate access by researchers.

1.3 Second International Conference on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones & Climate Change

Sponsors India Meteorological Department and the WMO/WWRP

Expert Team on climate Change Impacts on Tropical Cyclones

Scientific Objectives Climate change and tropical cyclone activities over the

Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone and climate change related to physical science themes

Impact of cyclones on the economy, infrastructure and society in individual Indian Ocean countries


Meeting Size

151(32 Foreign) Participants

Meeting venue and Time

New Delhi, India. 14-17 Feb., 2012

Meeting Chairs

Dr. Ajit Tyagi, IMD


Meeting topics Construction, Archival, Reconstruction of best track and Historical

data sets

NWP Modeling for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Analysis of Trend and Variability

Climatological Characteristics and Future Projection

Analysis of tropical cyclone activity and predictability, including ocean processes

Status and Operational Plan

Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Systems over the Indian Ocean(On Short, Medium, Extended and Seasonal scales)

1.5 Opportunities and Challenges in Monsoon Prediction in a Changing Climate (OCHAMP-2012)

Sponsors Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology,

WCRP, WWRP/TMRScientific Objectives

Leveraging the emerging opportunities to tackle the challenges in prediction of the global monsoon (especially the Asian Monsoon) in a changing climate;

To promote sharing of ideas about the emerging areas as well as to foster R&D collaborations amongst research and academic institutions.


Meeting Size

Out of 340 registered participants attending the conference, 57 made oral presentations and the remaining majority participants made poster presentations in 7 scientific sessions.

Meeting venue and Time

Pune, INDIA. 21-25 February, 2012

Meeting Chairs

Professor B.N. Goswami (IITM, Pune)


Outcome Showcasing the latest developments in monsoon

science;

Provided a forum for nearly 150 graduate students and early career scientists to actively interact with the leaders in the field.

Major recommendations Coupled Models for Monsoon Prediction

How to Improve the Parameterization schemes?

Uncertainty in Aerosol’s Role

Model Biases

New observations

Activities with other organization of WMO

• Attended the 44th Session of ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (held in Hangzhou, China, 6-11 February 2012)

• Sent a representative to attend the 39th Session of Panel of Tropical Cyclone (held in Myanmar, 5-9 March 2012)

• Activities of TMR• To find the way to collaborate with TC and PTC

Currently underway are three organized projects on tropical cyclones :

NW-Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project (NWP-TCEFP) for Typhoon Committee members (Lead: MRI/JMA)

Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP)(Lead: Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA)

Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) for Southeast Asia (2012-2013; Lead: RSFC Ha Noi)

Development of Monsoon Website

2. Projects and Publications

2.1 WWRP/TCP NW-Pacific TC Track Ensemble Forecast Research Project

(THORPEX-Asia)Objective• To examine the utility of ensemble forecasts for the operational typhoon forecasting.

Action Taken • Website was established at JMA/MRI• ID&PW provided to Typhoon Committee Members• First improvement made to the Website

Planned Action in 2011• Training for better utilization of the products• Survey of the utility and further improvement of the products

Courtesy of Dr Koji Kuroiwa

Training Session on Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast (Nanjing, China. 14-16 Dec 2011)

27 Forecasters from 11 TC affected countries and regions

the use of up-to-date ensemble data in tropical cyclone forecasting with focus on maximum wind speeds, rainfall, and landfall timing and location

Experts from ECMWF, NCEP, Met-FRANCE, JMA,NMC/CMA…

2.2 WWRP/TCP Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP)

Objective• To demonstrate the performance of the most advanced forecasting techniques for landfalling typhoons.

Action Taken • Training Workshop organized in May 2010 (Shanghai)• Real-time collection/display systems of forecast products developed• Real time verification system set-up

Planned Action in 2011• To open the project website (http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn)• To provide real-time products to all TC Members • To develop a comprehensive verification system

Courtesy of Dr Koji Kuroiwa

http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn/

Progresses in 2011 Website of the project for the Members of WMO was

released. The post-season verification systems for typhoon forecast

was set up. Post-season verification and reliability analyses on

typhoon forecast was carried out for 2010 and 2011.

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

RPS

Lead time(h)

CMA JMA-T JMA-WECMWF CMC NCEP

2.3 Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) for

Southeast Asia Objective• To produce and deliver improved severe weather forecasts and warnings services by the better use of NWP information from major NWP centres in countries where sophisticated model outputs are not currently used.(Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Socialist Republic of Viet Nam)

Planned Action in 2011• Phase I: Overall Project Planning (accomplishment)• Phase II: Regional Subproject Implementation Planning (accomplishment) and Execution(from April 2012)• Phase III: Regional Subproject Evaluation •Phase IV: Regional Subproject Long-term Sustainability and Future Developments

2.4 Development of Monsoon Website

EAMAC/WMO Portal Website Structure

A. What`s New (Highlights)

a. Monsoon Research & Operation Highlights

b. New Release

c. Asian Monsoon Quick look

d. EAMAC Bulletin

Home Page• FY2E 5d running TBB • A-A Monsoon System • American Monsoon System • African Monsoon System • 850hPa Wind Anomalies • 10Days Precipitation • 10Days Temperature • Hovmoller diagram at 90°E • Evolution Section at 90E, 8N • Hovmoller diagram at 8°S

B. Monsoon Monitoring• Monsoon Monitoring • Today's Monsoon • A-A Monsoon System • American Monsoon System • African Monsoon System • 850hPa Vaper Transportation • A-A Precipitation • FY2E TBB

http://bcc.cma.gov.cn/EAMAC/channel.php?channelId=76


















Asian Monsoon Onset 1、BOB

• BOB-Daily 850hPa θse • BOB-Pentad Rainfall • BOB-Daily OLR

2、SCS

• SCS-Daily 850hPa θse • SCS-Pentad Rainfall • SCS-Daily OLR

3、IND

• Kerala- Daily 850hPa θse • Kerala-Pentad Rainfall • Kerala-Daily OLR

4、WIND(Monsoon Region WVS)

Monsoon Activity

• Pentad Precipitation • Time-latitude Section of Prec

ipitation in China

• Time-latitude Section of OLR • Time-latitude Section of Prec

ipitation in India

• Characteristics of the Asian summer monsoon

• TBB • Rainfall Advance • Rainfall Retreat • Cetase and Vwnd Advance • Cetase and Vwnd Retreat

Monsoon Systems

• 500hPa HGT Anomalies • Pentad OLR Anomalies • 850hPa Vaper

Transportation • Troposphere Vaper

Transportation • 500hPa Temperature

Advection • Atomspheric Stability • 110-120°E Mean Meridional

Circulation • Eurasia Circulation Indices • NPSH Indices





































The book of "The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast (2nd edition)“ published in 2011.

The paper "Climate Bridging Weather and Climate in the Research and Forecasts of the Global Monsoon System” published in BAMS in 2011

Lecture Notes Monsoon Training Workshop has been produced and PDF version have been posted on WMO/WWRP webpage.

2. Projects and Publications

Plan for next two years (2012-2014)


The organization of scientific workshops and conferences

The organization of training workshops for forecasters

The provision of free access to research publications and products

RDP/FDP, Field experiments, and Collaboration with other WWRP working groups

Upcoming meeting in 2012

International Workshop on Extra-tropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones (IWET4) (Quebec, Canada. 21-25 May 2012)

Operational Forecasters Training Session for Developing Counties (RTC/WMO, Nanjing, 17-26 September 2012. TBD)

International Workshop on Unusual Behaviour of Tropical Cyclones (Haikou, China, 5-9 Nov 2012)

2nd International Workshop on Monsoon Heavy Rainfall ( Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 10-12 December 2012)

Planned meeting in 2013-2014

WGTMR Meeting (2013 TBD) IWM-V (Macau, China, October 2013)

IWTC –VIII (Viet Nam, 2014 TBD)

IWTCLP-III in conjunction with IWTC-VIII

in 2014 (Viet Nam TBD)


The Monsoon Panel will submit JSC5 the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMEX) RDP project proposal for endorsement decision

The TC Panel will consider setting up an RDP. One possibility is to follow the TLFDP. It will address the issue of TC landfall forecasting in terms of assessing the predictability of the NWP models in TC track, intensity, and wind and rainfall distributions. (Collaborate with other WGs)

Thank you for your attention

Documents

The 5 th Session of the JSC for CAS OPAG on WWRP, Geneva Switzerland, 11-13 April, 2012 Yihong DUAN, WGTMR [email protected] On the Review of the Work